MOBILE TV AND MULTIMEDIA—THE FUTURE
I begin with an idea and then it becomes something else.
—Pablo Picasso
Mobile TV is in it early years, but the same cannot be said of the cellular mobile industry itself, which at over 2 billion users is the largest industry worldwide. Its users exceed those of the Internet (1 billion in 2006) and pay TV (800 million) and their numbers continue to grow at over 30% on a global basis and between 50 and 85% per year in countries where the penetration is still low, such as India. The growth of the 3G networks has averaged over 100% during the year 2006, a trend that is expected to continue, to usher in a more conducive environment for development of multimedia applications and mobile TV. Due to the large size of the industry the stakes are very high for the players to mold the environment in their favor. The scenario can change overnight for technology providers, chip and handset manufacturers, and service providers based on decisions about technology, regulation, and spectrum and of industry bodies such as the Open Mobile Alliance or 3GPP and 3GPP2.
The trials conducted by all major mobile operators have converged on the opinion that around 40–60% of the users would like to watch mobile TV provided it is appropriately priced. News, sports, weather, traffic information, business newswires (e.g., stock prices), and cartoons featured high in the surveys as the most likely watched programs. These surveys, being specific to technologies and networks, give a general trend of the likely uses of multimedia broadcasting in the near future with the existing portfolio of services. Research firms have given various predictions of revenues for mobile TV. The median of the predictions is revenue of over $10 billion by the year 2011.
The surveys and research reports can at best be treated as industry direction indicators and are relevant for the industry players as they plan to enter various technologies. It is not appropriate to predict the future of an industry with such fast-paced developments based solely on the available past or present data. However, it is quite pertinent to analyze the trends that will govern the direction the industry is expected to take in the next few years.
18.1 MAJOR FACTORS INFLUENCING THE DIRECTION OF THE MOBILE TV AND MULTIMEDIA INDUSTRIES
18.1.1 Growth of 3G Networks and Evolution to 3G+
The migration to 3G, which started with FOMA in Japan in 2001, has moved through Europe as well as North America and parts of South East Asia. We are witnessing a strong drive toward 3G in the remaining countries, particularly in Asia.
18.1.2 Enabling Spectrum Allocations
The attention of the industry bodies as well as the regulators has now shifted toward the allocation of adequate spectrum for the growth of mobile TV and multimedia services. There is a new urgency to the entire issue and a realization that the IMT2000 recommendations on spectrum, which did not envisage large-scale mobile TV, need to be broadened to grant additional spectral resources. Country-wise allocations are leading to the use of different technologies and bands at present. However, the situation is expected to be addressed in a globally harmonized manner in WARC 2007, which is expected to become a salient landmark in the future development of the industry.
18.1.3 Harmonization of Standards
The need for harmonization of the various standards that govern the growth of the industry across the globe is an important factor in order to avoid segmenting the industry. Industry associations (such as OMA and 3GPP), standards bodies (TIA, ETSI, and ITU, among others), and mobile operators are attempting to provide a harmonized offering with maximum interoperability of applications. Similarly, convergence of standards for DVB-H, DVB-T, and other technologies will be an important factor (Fig. 18-1).
18.1.4 Evolution of Harmonized Core Networks Based on IP
The technologies are moving toward the use of core networks based on IP technology. Both the IMS and the MMD of the 3GPP projects have already formalized the IPv6 as the standard for the future mobile networks. This implies that service portability across the wire and wireless networks will be a reality in the near future.
FIGURE 18-1 Trends in Mobile TV and Multimedia
18.1.5 Mass Deployment of IP TV Networks
The years 2006 and 2007 are also characterized by a mass market adoption of IP TV networks. Examples are the Imagenio service launched by Telefonica Spain, MaLigne TV service (Telecom France), aonDigital TV by Telecom Austria, Hansenet (Telecom Italia), Easynet (BskyB UK), KPN Netherlands, and Deutsche Telecom. IP TV can also be delivered over Internet-connected mobile devices, and the growth of IP TV will have a bearing on the overall mix of technologies available for mobile TV (Fig. 18-2).
18.1.6 Mobile Phone Trends
Mobile phones are at the threshold of breaking out of the QVGA (320 × 240) screens, which today form the most common implementations. The new generation of mobile phones will be VGA (640 × 480), with full color resolution, and move on to SVGA (800 × 600) for devices such as palmtops.
FIGURE 18-2 Core Networks for Mobile Multimedia (RAN, Radio Access Network)
18.1.7 Availability of 3G+ Networks
The quest for higher speeds and resources is imparting an urgency to the planning and launch of 3G + networks that can take on the challenges posed by broadcast mobile TV such as DVB-H and DVB-T. In the United States, for example, the number of EV-DO operators had gone to 8 by the middle of 2006 and over 30 worldwide.
18.1.8 Use of Multitechnology and Multiband Handsets
There is increasing availability of handsets with multiband (i.e., 800, 900, 1900, 2100 (UMTS)) operation and multitechnology tuners (DVB-T and DVB-S, DVB-H) and Wi-Fi/WiMAX-based devices.
18.1.9 Focus on Content for Mobile TV and Multimedia Services
There is increasing focus on the content for mobile TV and multimedia services. It is well recognized that as the penetration of multimedia-enabled phones and 3G networks grows among the user base, the potential of delivering multimedia services is indeed very high. Production, management, and delivery of content for multimedia are factors that will in tandem drive the development of services of mobile TV.
18.1.10 Harmonization of Standards for Content Protection
Despite considerable efforts the standards that have evolved for content protection have not seen convergence. Hence, DRM 2.0, Windows-DRM, and other standards coexist along with various CA systems. There will need to be a move toward standardization of these products.
18.1.11 Decreasing Prices of Handsets and 3G Networks
Being an industry with very high volumes, it is possible to have chip sets and handsets priced aggressively, thus providing a further fillip to growth and penetration. The falling prices for 3G network equipment will also impact the rollout of infrastructure by operators in quest for higher revenues.
18.1.12 Specialized Operators
Mobile virtual network operators with a focus on multimedia content, specialized handsets, and customized services are also being favored by some operators. With their focus on niche products and markets the operators can help foster growth of the mobile TV and multimedia markets.
18.2 FUTURE CHALLENGES FOR MOBILE TV AND MULTIMEDIA SERVICES
While the trends favor a strong growth in mobile TV and multimedia services, there are many challenges the industry will need to overcome to bring a critical mass to these services. Some of these challenges are very similar to those faced during the growth of 2G GSM and CDMA services. Incompatible standards and air interfaces resulted in limited roaming and interoperability and limited the growth of the 2G services, particularly in the United States where no less than six types of networks were operational at one time. The facts seem to suggest a similar scenario for mobile TV and multimedia services unless it is overcome through serious cross-industry efforts. Some of the challenges needed to be overcome by the mobile TV and multimedia industry are:
18.2.1 Better Harmonization of Standards
It is not only that the standards are divergent at the service delivery level, with technologies of 3G, DVB-H, DAB-IP, T-DMB, S-DMB, and ISDB-T being used, among other standards. There is also a divergence in the protocol layering, with DVB-H being based on IP datacasting using IP as the core protocol, while T-DMB does not use the IP layer but instead depends on the individual modulator streams being assembled in an ensemble multiplexer. At the encoding level and file formats also there are variations, with MPEG-4, H.264, and Windows Media for video and AMR, AAC, MP3, or WMA being used for audio in various implementations. This means that the multimode handsets must have the capability to convert the files in real time for the phones to be truly global or usable on different networks. Stored content must likewise be delivered in multiple formats if it is implemented as a common application across many operators or networks. Even among the top level standards, there are different implementation profiles, such as DVB-H (CBMS), DVB-H (OMA BCAST), or S-DMB, with Korean and European versions. How efficiently the industry can converge on common standards and protocols will also determine the future growth of the industry.
18.2.2 Content Protection and Digital Rights Management
The mobile TV and multimedia services industry will be driven by the ability to sell content profitably. DRM is the key to control over the content downloading and usage by the customers. The industry is still grappling with multiple standards of DRM, both proprietary and industry wide (such as OMA DRM 2.0 and Windows-DRM). Some of the content protection mechanisms have yet to give full comfort to the providers over security and future use. The users are also highly concerned over the “Big Brother is watching” nature of the content protection, particularly compared with the relatively hassle-free world of the Internet they have been used to in the past (though even that is changing). As the DRM-protected content cannot be shared, it is viewed as very restrictive by young user groups. The capability to transport content upon change of handsets or computers and transportability among family or friends will need to be developed better for achieving a new dimension in the growth of such services.
18.2.3 Development of Wireless Broadband
A key factor that could be the dark horse of the industry is the wireless broadband delivered through networks such as WiMAX. This can give mobile terminals a new direction with its own suite of products and services that are not far from the familiar types available on the Internet. VoIP through Skype, SIP-based calling, streaming video and audio, and VoD and IP TV streams targeted for mobiles can operate seamlessly (as has indeed been demonstrated) anywhere in the world where the Internet is available via any of the many wireless networks.
18.2.4 Involvement of Regulators and Governments
The industry being relatively new, there are many regulatory challenges for both service administration and delivery, as well as the use of spectrum. Globally harmonized spectrum allocation for mobile TV by the ITU as done for DAB services, terrestrial broadcasting, and IMT2000 services does not exist at the moment, even though there are concerted efforts to achieve some early allocations.
18.2.5 Service Tailoring by Mobile Operators
In the quest to provide advanced services, many of the networks provide services that are highly tailored to specific networks. FOMA in Japan, S-DMB in Korea, and EV-DO and CDMA2000 networks in Korea and the United States are examples of other services that require that the handsets be approved, designed, and tested for each network. The service personalization includes user interfaces, animation and graphics middleware, application clients, and players specific to networks and applications. Such user interfaces have the impact of limiting the interoperability, roaming, and global use of such handsets.
18.2.6 High Prices of Handsets
Despite the fall in prices of chips, almost on an exponential basis, and the large user base, the handset prices still remain too high for a very wide penetration among the existing users. Very high growth rates in countries such as China, India, Brazil, and many other Asian and Latin American countries have been driven by handsets priced effectively in the $15–$30 range. However, smart phones, which are the target of mobile TV and multimedia, remain on lower growth trajectories.
18.3 LEADING INDICATORS FOR GROWTH IN MOBILE TV SERVICES
There are a number of factors that lend strength to the mobile TV and multimedia industry and are serving as leading indicators of its future growth.
The mobile industry is 2 billion plus strong and services such as mobile TV have the backing of both the mobile operators and the broadcasters. The broadcasters are keen to make a strong headway as the mobile TV industry needs new content, which is their main strength. The broadcasters also like the direct billing relationship with the viewers, which an interactive mobile TV service provides. At the same time the cellular mobile operators having invested heavily in the spectrum, and networks for 3G are keen to see the impact on the ARPUs and hence keen that such services be the subject of continued focus (Fig. 18-3).
The mobile handset industry players such as Nokia, Samsung, and Sony Ericsson continue to lend strong support to the growth of multimedia services and therefore the handsets. The DMB services have had strong support from Samsung and LG, as have the DVB-H services from Nokia, among other players.
The viewers find the new visual medium more appealing, personal, and intuitive to use. The mobile phone now also doubles as a music player and a personal storage device for anything like pictures to Power Point presentations and office documents. It provides unparalleled integration in a single device for applications such as photo album printing or sharing, messaging, Internet access and browsing, mobile games, and shopping and travel. These are very powerful utilities and unlikely to be diminished in appeal in the near future by any competing devices.
FIGURE 18-3 Growth Landscape for Mobile TV and Multimedia Services
There are a number of factors that indicate the strong preference of users for advanced multimedia and mobile TV services. The growth in services will be multifronted, with many technologies in the near future but likely convergence in the longer term. The near term is likely to show a significant flux in the standards as new competing technologies such as MBMS, TDtv, and MCBS make their presence and lead to readjustments in the portfolio of technologies offered to the market. Broadcast mobile TV based on technologies such as MediaFLO, DVB-H, or DVB-T is likely to be used in a widespread manner and become widely available in all major areas. Innovative new services such as presence, instant messaging, position location, and high-capability smart handsets with multiple functions are likely to remain strong growth drivers.