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Bank Investing: A Practitioner's Field Guide offers you the essential toolkit to become a successful bank investor. It packages practical lessons, theoretical knowledge, and historical context, all into one compelling and hopefully entertaining book. The book includes conversations with investors and management teams. Investors include activists, financials specialists, credit investors, and multibillion-dollar asset managers. Management teams have a broad representation from the c-suite of a broad spectrum of participants ranging from a fintech to a bank with over $30bn in assets.

Banks are the oil that lubricates the economy. An understanding of how they operate is essential for analyzing any part of the economy since banks represent a large investing universe and control a sizeable portion of assets. With over 800 public tickers representing over $3 trillion market cap, banks are larger than several other industry groups. Banks are the largest financial intermediaries in the U.S., controlling $15 trillion in financial assets. Their relative size can amplify effects. For example, a small regulatory or environmental change can cascade and ripple through financial markets and have a major impact on the economy.

As fintechs gain in prominence, a fundamental grasp of topics related to banking will help enhance understanding of fintech.

Bank investing can be a fruitful pursuit:

  • The most successful investor of our times, Warren Buffett, has had a sizeable investment in banks over time (close to a third of his portfolio weight used to be in banks).
  • Banks allow you to make macro-economic bets since they are highly levered to business cycles.
  • Bank investing allows you to scale your knowledge, as they have relatively homogenized business models...
  • ...at the same time, banks are diverse enough to drive meaningful dispersion in price performance. This divergence of performance can be taken advantage of by an astute and prepared securities analyst.
  • Banks are good vehicles to make specific investment plays on geographic regions, demographic trends (suburban to urban migration, aging), industries (agriculture, tech, energy), news flow (trade/tariffs, weather), real estate subsectors (NYC office, bay area apartments), and investing themes such as ESG, cryptocurrency, and venture capital.
  • Finally, fintech disruption is creating an investing opportunity to play the digital divide between banks that embrace technology successfully and those that get left behind.

Table of Contents

  1. Cover
  2. Title Page
  3. Copyright
  4. Dedication
  5. Acknowledgments
  6. Disclaimer
  7. About the Authors
  8. CHAPTER 1: Introduction
    1. WHY A BOOK ON BANK INVESTING?
    2. FINTECH ONSLAUGHT
    3. AN OPPORTUNITY TO LEVEL THE PLAYING FIELD
    4. FINTECH TRAILBLAZERS
    5. PAST IS PROLOGUE: THE ULTIMATE FINANCIAL INNOVATION
    6. THE HERE AND NOW
    7. WHY INVEST IN COMMUNITY BANKS?
  9. CHAPTER 2: Financial Statement Analysis
    1. THE BALANCE SHEET
    2. THE INCOME STATEMENT
    3. RATIOS
    4. ASSET QUALITY
    5. LOANS AND DEPOSITS
    6. LOAN COMPOSITION
    7. DEPOSIT COMPOSITION
    8. REGULATORY FILINGS
  10. CHAPTER 3: Capital
    1. CAPITAL FOR A BANK
    2. CAPITAL LEVELS
    3. CAPITAL STRUCTURE FOR A BANK
    4. MEASURES OF CAPITAL
    5. REGULATORY CAPITAL
    6. CAPITAL EROSION
    7. CAN CAPITAL RATIOS SERVE AS A PREDICTOR OF BANK FAILURES?
    8. MARKET VIEWS ON CAPITAL
    9. BANK TRADING BELOW TANGIBLE BOOK
    10. FIRST NBC BANK HOLDING COMPANY
    11. LEHMAN BROTHERS
    12. REGULATORY COMPLEXITY
    13. UNICREDIT – CASHES
    14. HSBC – DISCOS
    15. OTHER DISPUTES
    16. REVISITING ELEMENTS OF THE REGULATORY CAPITAL STACK
    17. AOCI
    18. QUALIFYING MINORITY INTEREST
    19. PREFERRED STOCK
    20. SBLF
    21. TARP
    22. SUBORDINATED DEBT
    23. ADVANTAGE HOLDCO CREDITORS IN BANKRUPTCIES?
    24. WHAT DOES THE HOLDCO HAVE THAT COULD BE VALUABLE TO THE HOLDCO CREDITORS IN A BANKRUPTCY?
    25. HAVE THESE ARGUMENTS HELD UP IN COURT?
    26. LIQUIDITY
    27. LIQUIDITY COVERAGE RATIO (LCR)
    28. NET STABLE FUNDING RATIO (NSFR)
    29. BAIL-IN RISK
    30. RISK WEIGHTING
    31. RISK WEIGHTINGS FOR MAJOR ASSET CATEGORIES
    32. ADJUSTMENTS
    33. THRESHOLDS FOR CAPITAL CONSTRAINTS AND RATIOS
    34. PCA PROMPT CORRECTIVE ACTION
    35. ADEQUATELY CAPITALIZED RATIOS
    36. CAPITAL CONSERVATION BUFFER
    37. COMMUNITY BANK LEVERAGE RATIO (CBLR)
    38. DODD-FRANK ACT STRESS TEST (DFAST)
    39. DFAST 2020: COVID-19 EDITION
    40. COMPREHENSIVE CAPITAL ANALYSIS AND REVIEW (CCAR)
    41. EVOLUTION OF CAPITAL RATIOS
  11. CHAPTER 4: Credit
    1. AREN'T HIGHER RESERVES BETTER?
    2. WHY IS CREDIT SO IMPORTANT?
    3. CREDIT METRICS
    4. TEXAS RATIO
    5. CREDIT QUALITY INDICATORS
    6. CREDIT QUALITY REGRESSION
    7. SHOCK SCENARIOS
    8. GAUGING THE UNDERWRITING PROCESS
    9. PRICING AND STRUCTURE
    10. SHARED NATIONAL CREDITS (SNCS)
    11. HISTORY OF CREDIT
    12. CONCENTRATION RISK
    13. HISTORY OF TEAM
    14. CECL AND ACCOUNTING CHANGES
    15. WHY CECL?
    16. WHAT IS CHANGING?
    17. WHAT WILL BE IMPACTED?
    18. CECL VS. CURRENT “INCURRED LOSS” APPROACH – AN EXAMPLE
    19. WILL IT REDUCE PROCYCLICALITY?
    20. OUR TAKE ON CECL
  12. CHAPTER 5: Valuation
    1. VALUATION
    2. P/TBV
    3. IMPLIED OR JUSTIFIED P/TBV AND P/BV
    4. EXCESS CAPITAL CONSIDERATIONS
    5. ROE AND ROTCE
    6. PRICE/EARNINGS
    7. PRICE/PPNR
    8. DEPOSIT PREMIUM
    9. PRECEDENT TRANSACTIONS
  13. CHAPTER 6: Regulation
    1. REGULATORY LANDSCAPE
    2. HAVE REGULATIONS MADE THE BANKING SYSTEM SAFE?
    3. 1921–1935
    4. 1982–1995
    5. 2007–2009
    6. ARE WE SAFER?
    7. TOO BIG TO FAIL
    8. FEDERAL PRUDENTIAL REGULATORS
    9. FDIC INSURANCE
    10. CAMELS
    11. KEY REGULATIONS
    12. STRESS TESTING
    13. CROSSING THE $10 BILLION
    14. CHANGES FROM THE ECONOMIC GROWTH ACT
    15. REGULATORY EXAMS
    16. SNC EXAM
    17. WHEN IS A BANK DEEMED TO BE TROUBLED?
    18. INFORMED IN WRITING?
    19. RELATIONSHIP WITH THE REGULATOR
    20. WHAT CAUSES A BANK TO FAIL?
    21. MISCELLANEOUS TOPICS OF RELEVANCE TO INVESTORS
    22. SEC FILING REQUIREMENTS
    23. CHANGE IN BANK CONTROL ACT (CBCA)
    24. BANK HOLDING COMPANY ACT (BHCA)
    25. SWITCHING REGULATORS
    26. SHEDDING THE BHC
    27. S CORP BANKS
    28. FINTECH CHARTER
    29. UTAH INDUSTRIAL BANKS (INDUSTRIAL LOAN COMPANY ILC)
    30. REGULATION O
    31. KEY REGULATIONS FOR COMMUNITY BANKS
    32. CANADA
  14. CHAPTER 7: Role of the Central Bank and Interest Rates
    1. ROLE OF THE CENTRAL BANK
    2. THE FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE (FOMC)
    3. EXTRAORDINARY MONETARY MEASURES
    4. NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES AND THE EVENT HORIZON
    5. EXTRAORDINARY MONETARY MEASURES PART II
    6. THE U.S. TREASURY MARKET
    7. MONETARY THEORIES
    8. INTEREST RATES
    9. ARE HIGHER INTEREST RATES BETTER FOR BANK STOCKS?
    10. HOW DO INTEREST RATES AFFECT PROFITABILITY?
    11. PARALLEL SHOCKS AND A NOTE ON MANAGEMENT DISCLOSURES
    12. INTEREST RATE SENSITIVITY AND BUSINESS MIX
    13. INTEREST RATES AND LOANS
    14. INTEREST RATES AND DEPOSITS
  15. CHAPTER 8: M&A
    1. M&A DRIVERS
    2. M&A ARGOT
    3. CONSIDERATION AND CURRENCY
    4. THE EXCHANGE RATIO
    5. EPS ACCRETION AND DILUTION
    6. SYNERGIES AND VALUE CREATION
    7. TANGIBLE BOOK VALUE DILUTION AND EARNBACK
    8. PURCHASE ACCOUNTING
    9. INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN
    10. STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS
    11. CURRENT EXPECTED CREDIT LOSSES (CECL) AND M&A
    12. BUYBACKS OR DEALS?
  16. CHAPTER 9: Cycle
    1. BANK SENSITIVITY TO CYCLES
    2. BULL MARKETS DO NOT DIE OF OLD AGE
    3. NBER – THE CYCLE'S TIMEKEEPER
    4. THIS TIME IS “RARELY” DIFFERENT
    5. INVERSION OF THE YIELD CURVE
    6. HIGH YIELD SPREADS
    7. TED SPREAD
    8. FRA–OIS
    9. REPO RATES
    10. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
    11. OTHER INDICATORS TO TRACK
    12. BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS
    13. CREDIT CYCLE INDICATORS
    14. INFLATION MEASURES
    15. REFLEXIVITY AND SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECIES
    16. VALUATION
  17. CHAPTER 10: Conversations
    1. ALWAYS BE LEARNING
    2. CONVERSATION PARTICIPANTS
  18. Appendix
    1. CONVERSIONS
    2. WHAT IS A THRIFT?
    3. MUTUAL CONVERSION
    4. THREE-YEAR ANNIVERSARY
    5. STANDARD CONVERSION
    6. RUSSELL RECONSTITUTION
    7. THE RECON PLAY
    8. COMPENDIUM OF BANK STATS
  19. Index
  20. End User License Agreement
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