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Book Description

Most of the data that companies collect is related to customer behaviors, such as clicks on a website or purchases in a supermarket. But data science algorithms and predictive analytics tools aren’t that specific, so customer data is treated the same way as, for example, astronomical or genomic data. This practical guide introduces powerful methods for behavioral data analysis that you’re probably not aware of.

Advanced experimental design will help you get the most out of your A/B tests, while causal diagrams will allow you to tease out causality from correlation even when you can’t run experiments. Written in an accessible style for data scientists, business analysts, and behavioral scientists, this practical book provides complete examples and exercises in R and Python to help you gain more insight from your data—immediately.

  • Understand the specifics of behavioral data
  • Explore the differences between measurement and prediction
  • Learn how to clean and prepare behavioral data
  • Design and analyze experiments to drive optimal business decisions
  • Use behavioral data to understand and measure cause and effect
  • Segment customers in a transparent and insightful way

Table of Contents

  1. 1. Behaviors, Causality, and Prediction
    1. Confound it! The Hidden Dangers of Letting Regression Sort It Out
      1. Why Correlation Is Not Causation: a Confounder in Action
      2. Too Many Variables Can Spoil the Broth
      3. Including the Wrong Variable Can Create Spurious Correlations
      4. A New Respect For Variable Selection
    2. Causal Diagrams to The Rescue
      1. Understanding Causal Diagrams
      2. Fundamental Structures of Causal Diagrams
    3. Chapter Conclusion
    4. References
    5. Exercises
  2. 2. Online Streaming Experiment
    1. Planning the experiment
      1. Criteria for success
      2. Definition of intervention
      3. Logic for success
    2. Determining random assignment and sample size/power
      1. Random assignment
      2. Sample size and experiment power
    3. Analyzing the experiment
      1. Test of proportions
      2. Logistic regression
    4. References
    5. Exercises
  3. 3. Experimental Design 2: Online Population-Based Experiment
    1. Planning the experiment
      1. Criteria for success
      2. What are we testing?
      3. Logic for success
    2. Determining random assignment and sample size/power
      1. Random assignment
      2. Power analysis with simulations
      3. Traditional statistical power analysis
    3. Analyzing the experiment
      1. T-test of means
      2. Linear regression
      3. Understanding experimental behaviors: compliance
    4. Chapter Conclusion
    5. References
    6. Exercises
  4. 4. Experimental Design 3: Offline Population-Based Experiment
    1. Planning the experiment
    2. Determining random assignment and sample size/power
      1. Random assignment
      2. Sample size and power
    3. Analyzing the experiment
    4. Chapter Conclusion
    5. References
    6. Exercises
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