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“An actionable framework for driving change.”—Adam Grant

Will the next rogue wave sink your ship—or will you choose to profit from it?

At this moment, rogue waves are forming under your business. Emerging technologies, changing demographics, the data economy, automation, and other trends—the undercurrents of radical, systemic change—are crashing into each other. When they converge, they’ll produce sea changes that sink companies and wash away entire industries overnight. If your competitor can’t ride out the next wave and you can, you win.

In Rogue Waves, Jonathan Brill—a renowned expert on resilient growth and decision making under uncertainty—shows you how to prepare your business to survive and thrive through the most radical upheavals. Drawing on years of experience as a Fortune 500 innovation executive, advisor, and entrepreneur, Brill delivers a practical action plan to:

  • Identify and capitalize on the 10 economic, technological, and social trends that will collide to reshape your business
  • Turn sudden threats into outsized opportunities
  • Create a culture of entrepreneurship and experimentation
  • Build and scale leadership skills and processes to supercharge your company’s agility and adaptability
This must-read survival guide provides the predictive tools you need to take advantage of randomness, turn chaos into profit, and set your company on the course for long-term success.Resilience is your new strategy for growth.

Table of Contents

  1. Cover
  2. Title Page
  3. Copyright Page
  4. Dedication
  5. Contents
  6. Introduction
    1. Why Business School Strategy Keeps Failing
    2. Why Business Is Broken
    3. Resilience Is Your New Strategy for Growth
    4. A Practitioner as Your Guide
    5. How This Book Is Organized
  7. PART I AWARENESS
    1. 1 Transforming to Survive in Our Increasingly Volatile World
    2. CEOs Feel Like They’re Out at Sea
    3. The Mathematics of Monster Waves
    4. Constructive Interference in Human Society
    5. The Four FOES of Growth
    6. The Future Is Neither Deterministic nor Chaotic
    7. 2 10 Undercurrents Will Cause the Next Rogue Wave
    8. The Local Impact of Macrotrends
    9. Economic Undercurrents
    10. Technological Undercurrents
    11. Social Undercurrents
    12. If the Future’s So Obvious, Why Do Companies Keep Getting Hit by Rogue Waves?
    13. Summary: Assess Your Threats and Opportunities
    14. Today’s To-Dos for Tomorrow
  8. PART II Behavior Change
    1. The ROGUE Method
    2. 3 R: Reality Test
    3. Investigation: The Art of Seeing the Invisible
    4. The REAL Framework
    5. Summary: Test Your Present Reality
    6. Today’s To-Dos for Tomorrow
    7. 4 O: Observe Your System
    8. The Thing About the Future
    9. Making Sense of Your System
    10. Getting Comfortable with Uncertainty
    11. Knowing the Pattern Without Knowing All the Data
    12. Searching for Higher-Order Effects
    13. Causal Loop Diagrams
    14. How You Can Model Systems Too
    15. Summary: Find Your Range of Futures
    16. Today’s To-Dos for Tomorrow
    17. 5 G: Generate Your Futures
    18. The Tree of Possibility
    19. Envision the Extremes
    20. How to Win Through Practical Wargaming
    21. Chart Your Possible Futures
    22. Summary: Assess the Impact of Change
    23. Today’s To-Dos for Tomorrow
    24. 6 U: Uncouple Your Opportunities from Your Threats
    25. Modify Your World Using Models
    26. Identify Trigger Points
    27. Nudge Your System
    28. Prioritize Your Opportunities and Threats
    29. Shift Certainty and Impact
    30. Summary: Bend the Future to Your Benefit
    31. Today’s To-Dos for Tomorrow
    32. 7 E: Experiment
    33. More Innovation Doesn’t Always Make You More Profitable
    34. Choosing the Right Experiments
    35. Designing Portfolios
    36. Balancing Your Portfolio
    37. Design Your Portfolio for Resilience as Well as Performance
    38. Maintaining Your Backlog
    39. Innovate at the Right Level
    40. Define Your Experiments
    41. Evaluate Your Results Effectively
    42. Summary: Experiment to Future-Proof Your Business
    43. Today’s To-Dos for Tomorrow
  9. PART III CULTURE CHANGE
    1. 8 Leading in Stormy Seas
    2. Sowing the Seeds of an Experimental Mindset
    3. How to Future-Proof Your Culture
    4. Eliminating Unnecessary Risk
    5. Playing Basketball on a Football Field
    6. Speaking in Koans
    7. Summary: Create a Culture of Experimentation
    8. Today’s To-Dos for Tomorrow
  10. Conclusion: Driving Resilient Growth in Your Organization
    1. Phase I: Awareness
    2. Phase II: Behavior Change
    3. Phase III: Culture Change
    4. Phase IV: Resilient Growth
  11. Epilogue
    1. How to See Clearly
    2. Winning with a Resilient Growth Strategy
  12. Acknowledgments
  13. Notes
  14. Index
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