Cover image for Safe Haven

Safe Haven

Author Mark Spitznagel , Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Release Date: 2021/08/01
ISBN: 9781119401797
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What is a safe haven?

What role should they play in an investment portfolio? Do we use them only to seek shelter until the passing of financial storms? Or are they something more? Contrary to everything we know from modern financial theory, can higher returns actually come as a result of lowering risk? In Safe Haven, hedge fund manager Mark Spitznagel—one of the top practitioners of safe haven investing and portfolio risk mitigation in the world—answers these questions and more. Investors who heed the message in this book will never look at risk mitigation the same way again.

Table of Contents

  1. Cover
  2. Title Page
  3. Copyright
  4. Dedication
  5. Foreword
    1. SANTA MARINA
    2. SPITZ
    3. MUTUA MULI
    4. COST‐EFFECTIVE RISK MITIGATION
  6. Part One: What Comes First
    1. Chapter One: At War with Luck
    2. WRITTEN IN BLOOD
    3. PROBING BETS
    4. WHAT'S A SAFE HAVEN?
    5. THE GREAT DILEMMA
    6. FIRST PRINCIPLES
    7. MODUS TOLLENS
    8. DEDUCTIVE DICE
    9. Chapter Two: Nature's Admonition
    10. THE SWISS FAMILY BERNOULLI
    11. THE SAINT PETERSBURG PARADOX
    12. EMOLUMENTUM MEDIUM
    13. THE GEOMETRIC AVERAGE
    14. THE OTHER SAINT PETERSBURG PARADOX
    15. CONCAVITY OF CURVE
    16. THE LOGARITHMIC RHINE FALLS
    17. Chapter Three: The Eternal Return
    18. AN EXISTENTIAL IMPERATIVE
    19. INTO THE MULTIVERSE
    20. DICE WITH SCHRÖDINGER'S DEMON (N = ∞)
    21. DICE WITH NIETZSCHE'S DEMON (N = 1)
    22. THE HUSTLE OF NON‐ERGODICITY
    23. MAGIC TRICK OR MATH TRICK?
    24. SIDE BETS
    25. A GLIMPSE OF TREASURE
  7. Part Two: What Comes After
    1. Chapter Four: A Taxonomy
    2. ESSENTIALISM
    3. MORE DIFFERENT THAN ALIKE
    4. PHENOTYPES
    5. RISK‐MITIGATION IRONY
    6. IMPOSTERS
    7. THE DOGMA OF DIVERSIFICATION
    8. INDUCTIVE DICE
    9. Chapter Five: Holism
    10. THE CUCKOO IN THE CLOCK
    11. KEEPING BOTH EYES
    12. CLINICAL TRIALS
    13. THE COST‐AND‐EFFECT RELATIONSHIP
    14. RESHUFFLING
    15. AGNOSTICISM
    16. OFFENSIVE DEFENSE
    17. A NARROW, BROKEN WINDOW FRAME
    18. LOOKING DOWN THE TRACK
    19. THE GREAT PIRATES
    20. Chapter Six: Bold Conjectures
    21. EPISTEMOLOGY
    22. NEPTUNE OR VULCAN?
    23. CASH IS KING
    24. GO WITH THE FLOW
    25. ALL THAT GLITTERS
    26. THE SAFE HAVEN FRONTIER
    27. WHISTLING PAST THE GRAVEYARD
  8. Afterword
    1. LOOKING BACK
    2. THE ONE, AND ONLY ONE, PATH
    3. THE WILLIAM TELL SHOT
    4. PIRATE TREASURE
    5. A FORMULA FOR GREATNESS
    6. “I HAVE FORGOTTEN MY UMBRELLA.”
  9. Acknowledgments
  10. Index
  11. End User License Agreement
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