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Currency Trading For Dummies®, 3rd Edition
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Currency Trading For Dummies®, 3rd Edition
by Brian Dolan, Kathleen Brooks
Currency Trading For Dummies, 3rd Edition
Introduction
Introduction
About This Book
Foolish Assumptions
Icons Used in This Book
Beyond the Book
Where to Go from Here
Part I: Getting Started with Currency Trading
Chapter 1: Currency Trading 101
What Is Currency Trading?
Speculating as an enterprise
Currencies as the trading vehicle
What Affects Currency Rates?
Fundamentals drive the currency market
Unless it’s the technicals that are driving the currency market
Or it may be something else
Developing a Trading Plan
Finding your trading style
Planning the trade
Executing the Trading Plan from Start to Finish
Chapter 2: What Is the Forex Market?
Getting Inside the Numbers
Trading for spot
Speculating in the currency market
Getting liquid without getting soaked
Around the World in a Trading Day
The opening of the trading week
Trading in the Asia-Pacific session
Trading in the European/London session
Trading in the North American session
Key daily times and events
The U.S. dollar index
Currencies and Other Financial Markets
Gold
Oil
Stocks
Bonds
Getting Started with a Practice Account
Chapter 3: Who Trades Currencies? Meet the Players
The Interbank Market Is “The Market”
Getting inside the interbank market
Bank to bank and beyond
Hedgers and Financial Investors
Hedging your bets
Global investment flows
Speculators
Hedge funds
Day traders, big and small
Governments and Central Banks
Currency reserve management
The Bank for International Settlements
The Group of Twenty
Chapter 4: The Mechanics of Currency Trading
Buying and Selling Simultaneously
Currencies come in pairs
The long and the short of it
Profit and Loss
Margin balances and liquidations
Unrealized and realized profit and loss
Calculating profit and loss with pips
Factoring profit and loss into margin calculations
Understanding Rollovers and Interest Rates
Currency is money, after all
Value dates and trade settlement
Market holidays and value dates
Applying rollovers
Understanding Currency Prices
Bids and offers
Spreads
Executing a Trade
Trading online
Orders
Part II: Driving Forces behind Currencies
Chapter 5: Looking at the Big Picture
Currencies and Interest Rates
The future is now: Interest rate expectations
Relative interest rates
Monetary Policy 101
Looking at benchmark interest rates
Easy money, tight money
Unconventional easing
Watching the central bankers
Interpreting monetary policy communications
Official Currency Policies and Rhetoric
Currency policy or currency stance?
Calling the shots on currencies
Taking a closer look at currency market intervention
Financial stability
Debts, deficits, and growth
Gauging credit risk
Geopolitical Risks and Events
Gauging risk sentiment
Risk on or risk off?
Chapter 6: Understanding and Applying Market News and Information
Sourcing Market Information
The art of boarding a moving train
Taking the pulse of the market
Rumors: Where there’s smoke, there’s fire
Putting Market Information into Perspective: Focusing on Themes
Driving fundamental themes
Analyzing technical themes
Reality Check: Expectations versus Actual
The role of consensus expectations
Pricing in and pricing out forecasts
When good expectations go bad
Anticipating alternative outcome scenarios
Chapter 7: Getting Down and Dirty with Fundamental Data
Finding the Data
Economics 101 for Currency Traders: Making Sense of Economic Data
The labor market
The consumer
The business sector
The structural
Assessing Economic Data Reports from a Trading Perspective
Understanding and revising data history
Getting to the core
Market-Moving Economic Data Reports from the United States
Labor-market reports
Consumer-level data reports
Business-level data reports
Structural data reports
Major International Data Reports
Eurozone
Japan
United Kingdom
Canada
Australia
New Zealand
China
Chapter 8: Getting to Know the Major Currency Pairs
The Big Dollar: EUR/USD
Trading fundamentals of EUR/USD
Trading behavior of EUR/USD
Tactical trading considerations in EUR/USD
East Meets West: USD/JPY
Trading fundamentals of USD/JPY
Price action behavior of USD/JPY
Tactical trading considerations in USD/JPY
The Other Majors: Sterling and Aussie
The British pound: GBP/USD
The new kid in town: Trading the Aussie
Understanding Forex Positioning Data
How to interpret the data
The FX fix
Forex and regulation
Chapter 9: Minor Currency Pairs and Cross-Currency Trading
Trading the Minor Pairs
Trading fundamentals of USD/CAD
Trading fundamentals of NZD/USD
Tactical trading considerations in USD/CAD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD
Trading the Scandies: SEK, NOK, and DKK
Swedish krona — “Stocky”
Norwegian krone — “Nokkie”
Danish krone — “Copey”
Cross-Currency Pairs
Why trade the crosses?
Stretching the legs
Trading the JPY crosses
Trading the EUR crosses
Part III: Developing a Trading Plan
Chapter 10: Training and Preparing for Battle
Finding the Right Trading Style for You
Real-world and lifestyle considerations
Making time for market analysis
Technical versus fundamental analysis
Different Strokes for Different Folks
Short-term, high-frequency day trading
Medium-term directional trading
Long-term macroeconomic trading
Trading on Auto-Pilot
Potential inputs to drive an EA system
Caveat emptor on models
Using social media for trading: The power of the crowd
Developing Trading Discipline
Taking the emotion out of trading
Managing your expectations
Keeping your ammunition dry
Chapter 11: Cutting the Fog with Technical Analysis
The Philosophy of Technical Analysis
What is technical analysis?
What technical analysis is not
Forms of technical analysis
Finding support and resistance
Waiting for confirmation
The Art of Technical Analysis
Bar charts and candlestick charts
Drawing trend lines
Recognizing chart formations
Fibonacci retracements
The Science of Technical Analysis
Momentum oscillators and studies
Trend-identifying indicators
Trading with clouds — Ichimoku charts
Chapter 12: Identifying Trade Opportunities
Developing a Routine for Market Analysis
Performing Multiple-Time-Frame Technical Analysis
Identifying Support and Resistance Levels
Trend lines
Highs and lows
Congestion zones
Fibonacci retracements
Ichimoku levels
Looking for Symmetry with Channels
Drawing price channels
Listening to Momentum
Factoring momentum analysis into your routine
Looking at momentum in multiple time frames
Trading on divergences between price and momentum
Using momentum for timing entry and exit
Trading on Candlestick Patterns
Building a Trade Strategy from Start to Finish
Chapter 13: Risk-Management Considerations
Managing Risk Is More Than Avoiding Losses
Leverage amplifies gains and losses — and expectations
Knowing your margin requirements
Market liquidity, volatility, and gap risk
We have a winner here! Protecting your profits
Placing your orders effectively
Applying Risk Management to the Trade
Analyzing the trade setup to determine position size
Doing the math to put the risk in cash terms
Devising the trading plan in terms of risk
Choosing Your Trading Broker
Different business models of brokers
Financial risks of brokers
Technology Issues and Contingency Planning
Part IV: Executing a Trading Plan
Chapter 14: Pulling the Trigger
Getting into the Position
Buying and selling at the current market
Averaging into a position
Trading breakouts
Making the Trade Correctly
Buying and selling online
Placing your orders
Chapter 15: Managing the Trade
Monitoring the Market while Your Trade Is Active
Following the market with rate alerts
Staying alert for news and data developments
Keeping an eye on other financial markets
Updating Your Trade Plan as Time Marches On
Trend lines move over time
Impending events may require trade plan adjustments
Updating Order Levels as Prices Progress
Increasing take-profit targets
Tightening stop-loss orders to protect profits
Chapter 16: Closing the Position and Evaluating Your Results
Closing Out the Trade
Taking profit and stopping out
Setting it and forgetting it: Letting the market trigger your order
Squaring up after events have happened
Exiting at the right time
Getting out when the price is right
Assessing Your Trading Strategy
Identifying what you did right and wrong
Updating your trading record
Part V: The Part of Tens
Chapter 17: Ten Habits of Successful Currency Traders
Trading with a Plan
Anticipating Event Outcomes
Staying Flexible
Being Prepared for Trading
Keeping Technically Alert
Going with the Flow/Trading the Range
Focusing on a Few Pairs
Protecting Profits
Trading with Stop Losses
Watching Other Markets
Chapter 18: Ten Rules of Risk Management
Trade with Stop-Loss Orders
Leverage to a Minimum
Trade with a Plan
Stay on Top of the Market
Trade with an Edge
Step Back from the Market
Take Profit Regularly
Understand Currency-Pair Selection
Double-Check for Accuracy
Take Money out of Your Trading Account
Chapter 19: Ten Great Resources
Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets
Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques
Elliott Wave Principle
Technical Analysis For Dummies
The Book of Five Rings
Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders
Come into My Trading Room
Zero Hedge
BabyPips.com
Forex Factory
Appendix: Trading Strategies
What’s Your Sign? Determining Your Trader Type
Looking at Trading Strategies Based on Trader Type
Strategies for the scalper
Strategies for the swing trader
Strategies for the position trader
About the Authors
Cheat Sheet
More Dummies Products
Search in book...
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Introduction
Currency Trading For Dummies®, 3rd Edition
Visit
www.dummies.com/cheatsheet/currencytrading
to view this book's cheat sheet.
Table of Contents
Introduction
About This Book
Foolish Assumptions
Icons Used in This Book
Beyond the Book
Where to Go from Here
Part I: Getting Started with Currency Trading
Chapter 1: Currency Trading 101
What Is Currency Trading?
Speculating as an enterprise
Currencies as the trading vehicle
What Affects Currency Rates?
Fundamentals drive the currency market
Unless it’s the technicals that are driving the currency market
Or it may be something else
Developing a Trading Plan
Finding your trading style
Planning the trade
Executing the Trading Plan from Start to Finish
Chapter 2: What Is the Forex Market?
Getting Inside the Numbers
Trading for spot
Speculating in the currency market
Getting liquid without getting soaked
Around the World in a Trading Day
The opening of the trading week
Trading in the Asia-Pacific session
Trading in the European/London session
Trading in the North American session
Key daily times and events
The U.S. dollar index
Currencies and Other Financial Markets
Gold
Oil
Stocks
Bonds
Getting Started with a Practice Account
Chapter 3: Who Trades Currencies? Meet the Players
The Interbank Market Is “The Market”
Getting inside the interbank market
Bank to bank and beyond
Hedgers and Financial Investors
Hedging your bets
Global investment flows
Speculators
Hedge funds
Day traders, big and small
Governments and Central Banks
Currency reserve management
The Bank for International Settlements
The Group of Twenty
Chapter 4: The Mechanics of Currency Trading
Buying and Selling Simultaneously
Currencies come in pairs
The long and the short of it
Profit and Loss
Margin balances and liquidations
Unrealized and realized profit and loss
Calculating profit and loss with pips
Factoring profit and loss into margin calculations
Understanding Rollovers and Interest Rates
Currency is money, after all
Value dates and trade settlement
Market holidays and value dates
Applying rollovers
Understanding Currency Prices
Bids and offers
Spreads
Executing a Trade
Trading online
Orders
Part II: Driving Forces behind Currencies
Chapter 5: Looking at the Big Picture
Currencies and Interest Rates
The future is now: Interest rate expectations
Relative interest rates
Monetary Policy 101
Looking at benchmark interest rates
Easy money, tight money
Unconventional easing
Watching the central bankers
Interpreting monetary policy communications
Official Currency Policies and Rhetoric
Currency policy or currency stance?
Calling the shots on currencies
Taking a closer look at currency market intervention
Financial stability
Debts, deficits, and growth
Gauging credit risk
Geopolitical Risks and Events
Gauging risk sentiment
Risk on or risk off?
Chapter 6: Understanding and Applying Market News and Information
Sourcing Market Information
The art of boarding a moving train
Taking the pulse of the market
Rumors: Where there’s smoke, there’s fire
Putting Market Information into Perspective: Focusing on Themes
Driving fundamental themes
Analyzing technical themes
Reality Check: Expectations versus Actual
The role of consensus expectations
Pricing in and pricing out forecasts
When good expectations go bad
Anticipating alternative outcome scenarios
Chapter 7: Getting Down and Dirty with Fundamental Data
Finding the Data
Economics 101 for Currency Traders: Making Sense of Economic Data
The labor market
The consumer
The business sector
The structural
Assessing Economic Data Reports from a Trading Perspective
Understanding and revising data history
Getting to the core
Market-Moving Economic Data Reports from the United States
Labor-market reports
Consumer-level data reports
Business-level data reports
Structural data reports
Major International Data Reports
Eurozone
Japan
United Kingdom
Canada
Australia
New Zealand
China
Chapter 8: Getting to Know the Major Currency Pairs
The Big Dollar: EUR/USD
Trading fundamentals of EUR/USD
Trading behavior of EUR/USD
Tactical trading considerations in EUR/USD
East Meets West: USD/JPY
Trading fundamentals of USD/JPY
Price action behavior of USD/JPY
Tactical trading considerations in USD/JPY
The Other Majors: Sterling and Aussie
The British pound: GBP/USD
The new kid in town: Trading the Aussie
Understanding Forex Positioning Data
How to interpret the data
The FX fix
Forex and regulation
Chapter 9: Minor Currency Pairs and Cross-Currency Trading
Trading the Minor Pairs
Trading fundamentals of USD/CAD
Trading fundamentals of NZD/USD
Tactical trading considerations in USD/CAD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD
Trading the Scandies: SEK, NOK, and DKK
Swedish krona — “Stocky”
Norwegian krone — “Nokkie”
Danish krone — “Copey”
Cross-Currency Pairs
Why trade the crosses?
Stretching the legs
Trading the JPY crosses
Trading the EUR crosses
Part III: Developing a Trading Plan
Chapter 10: Training and Preparing for Battle
Finding the Right Trading Style for You
Real-world and lifestyle considerations
Making time for market analysis
Technical versus fundamental analysis
Different Strokes for Different Folks
Short-term, high-frequency day trading
Medium-term directional trading
Long-term macroeconomic trading
Trading on Auto-Pilot
Potential inputs to drive an EA system
Caveat emptor on models
Using social media for trading: The power of the crowd
Developing Trading Discipline
Taking the emotion out of trading
Managing your expectations
Keeping your ammunition dry
Chapter 11: Cutting the Fog with Technical Analysis
The Philosophy of Technical Analysis
What is technical analysis?
What technical analysis is not
Forms of technical analysis
Finding support and resistance
Waiting for confirmation
The Art of Technical Analysis
Bar charts and candlestick charts
Drawing trend lines
Recognizing chart formations
Fibonacci retracements
The Science of Technical Analysis
Momentum oscillators and studies
Trend-identifying indicators
Trading with clouds — Ichimoku charts
Chapter 12: Identifying Trade Opportunities
Developing a Routine for Market Analysis
Performing Multiple-Time-Frame Technical Analysis
Identifying Support and Resistance Levels
Trend lines
Highs and lows
Congestion zones
Fibonacci retracements
Ichimoku levels
Looking for Symmetry with Channels
Drawing price channels
Listening to Momentum
Factoring momentum analysis into your routine
Looking at momentum in multiple time frames
Trading on divergences between price and momentum
Using momentum for timing entry and exit
Trading on Candlestick Patterns
Building a Trade Strategy from Start to Finish
Chapter 13: Risk-Management Considerations
Managing Risk Is More Than Avoiding Losses
Leverage amplifies gains and losses — and expectations
Knowing your margin requirements
Market liquidity, volatility, and gap risk
We have a winner here! Protecting your profits
Placing your orders effectively
Applying Risk Management to the Trade
Analyzing the trade setup to determine position size
Doing the math to put the risk in cash terms
Devising the trading plan in terms of risk
Choosing Your Trading Broker
Different business models of brokers
Financial risks of brokers
Technology Issues and Contingency Planning
Part IV: Executing a Trading Plan
Chapter 14: Pulling the Trigger
Getting into the Position
Buying and selling at the current market
Averaging into a position
Trading breakouts
Making the Trade Correctly
Buying and selling online
Placing your orders
Chapter 15: Managing the Trade
Monitoring the Market while Your Trade Is Active
Following the market with rate alerts
Staying alert for news and data developments
Keeping an eye on other financial markets
Updating Your Trade Plan as Time Marches On
Trend lines move over time
Impending events may require trade plan adjustments
Updating Order Levels as Prices Progress
Increasing take-profit targets
Tightening stop-loss orders to protect profits
Chapter 16: Closing the Position and Evaluating Your Results
Closing Out the Trade
Taking profit and stopping out
Setting it and forgetting it: Letting the market trigger your order
Squaring up after events have happened
Exiting at the right time
Getting out when the price is right
Assessing Your Trading Strategy
Identifying what you did right and wrong
Updating your trading record
Part V: The Part of Tens
Chapter 17: Ten Habits of Successful Currency Traders
Trading with a Plan
Anticipating Event Outcomes
Staying Flexible
Being Prepared for Trading
Keeping Technically Alert
Going with the Flow/Trading the Range
Focusing on a Few Pairs
Protecting Profits
Trading with Stop Losses
Watching Other Markets
Chapter 18: Ten Rules of Risk Management
Trade with Stop-Loss Orders
Leverage to a Minimum
Trade with a Plan
Stay on Top of the Market
Trade with an Edge
Step Back from the Market
Take Profit Regularly
Understand Currency-Pair Selection
Double-Check for Accuracy
Take Money out of Your Trading Account
Chapter 19: Ten Great Resources
Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets
Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques
Elliott Wave Principle
Technical Analysis For Dummies
The Book of Five Rings
Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders
Come into My Trading Room
Zero Hedge
BabyPips.com
Forex Factory
Appendix: Trading Strategies
What’s Your Sign? Determining Your Trader Type
Looking at Trading Strategies Based on Trader Type
Strategies for the scalper
Strategies for the swing trader
Strategies for the position trader
About the Authors
Cheat Sheet
More Dummies Products
Guide
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