INDEX

  • A
  • Academic trading strategies, 11–12
  • Actual performance, expected vs., 104–107
  • AI (artificial intelligence), xii, 28–29
  • Algorithmic trading, see Quantitative trading
  • Algoseek, 41, 95
  • Alpaca, 86, 95, 99
  • Alpha decay, xii–xiii, 198
  • Alternative trading systems, 85
  • Amaranth Advisors, 129, 186, 193
  • Annualized Sharpe ratio, 48–49
  • Annualized standard deviation of returns, 49
  • Anwar, Yaser, 28
  • Application programming interface (API), 86, 94, 98–99
  • Arbitrage pricing theory (APT), see Factor models
  • Arithmetic mean, 112
  • Array processing, in MATLAB, 199–203
  • Artificial intelligence (AI), xii, 28–29
  • assert function, MATLAB, 176–177
  • Asset allocation, optimal, 189
  • Augmented Dickey-Fuller test of cointegration, 149, 155
  • Automated trading systems, 93–101
    • fully automated, 94, 98–100
    • growth with, 197
    • hiring consultants to build, 100–101
    • paper trading to test, 103–104
    • for part-time traders, 15
    • semiautomated, 94–98
    • software risk with, 125
    • and time commitment for quantitative trading, 5–7
  • Averages, ensemble vs. time series, 127, 128
  • Average daily volume, 101–102
  • B
  • backshift function, MATLAB, 181
  • Backtesting, xvii, 33–79
    • of academic strategies, 11–12
    • common platforms for, 34–40
    • defined, 57–58
    • determining optimal holding period with, 170
    • execution and, 95, 100
    • of half-Kelly betting, 122–123
    • of high-frequency strategies, 188
    • historical databases for, 40–47
    • impact of survivorship bias on, 26–27
    • by independent traders, 3
    • of January effect, 175–179
    • of mean-reverting strategies, 135
    • minimum duration of, 60–61
    • paper trading and, 103–104
    • performance measurement for, 47–57
    • pitfalls with, 57–72
    • of prospective strategies, 20
    • for risk management, 124
    • of strategy modifications, 128–129
    • strategy refinement after, 77–78
    • of trader-forum strategies, 12–13
    • transaction costs in, 72–77
  • Backtracker, 94
  • Bailey, David J., 60
  • Bank of Montreal, 186
  • Bankruptcy risk, 84
  • BasketTrader, 96, 97
  • Basket traders, 94, 96–98
  • Bayes Net toolbox, MATLAB, 204
  • Bear Stearns, 2
  • Behavioral finance, 126–128
  • Bel Fuse Inc., 102
  • Benchmarks, 20–23
  • Beta, 16, 188–189
  • Bias. See also Data-snooping bias; Survivorship bias
    • look-ahead, 29, 34, 58–59, 67, 103
    • loss aversion as, 126–128
    • model risk due to, 124
    • representativeness, 128–129
    • status quo, 126
  • Bid-ask spread, 25, 27, 101
  • bizfilings.com, 83
  • Black swan events, 122
  • Blogs, 12–14
  • Bloomberg, 17, 41, 88
  • Blueshift, 40, 94, 95, 99
  • Bollinger Bands, 140
  • Bright Trading, 82
  • Brokerages, 85–87
  • brokercheck.finra.org, 87
  • Broker-dealers, 86–87
  • Bugs, software, 103, 125
  • Buy-and-hold strategies, 19. See also Long-only strategies
  • C
  • C (programming language), 188, 199, 200
  • CAGR (compound annualized growth rate), 47
  • Calendar effect, see Seasonal trading strategies
  • Calendar spreads, 159
  • Capacity, 30, 101, 194–195, 197
  • Capital:
    • expected compound rate of growth of, 127–128
    • maximum, 120
  • Capital allocation:
    • Kelly formula for, 111–112, 114–119
    • optimal, 109–112, 114–120
    • to trading strategies, 72
  • Capital availability:
    • financial instrument selection and, 18–19
    • for retail vs. proprietary traders, 83, 84
    • strategy selection and, 15–19
  • Capital gain, long-term, 19–20
  • Cell arrays, in MATLAB, 203
  • Charting, 1
  • Chat with Traders, 12
  • Chicago Mercantile Exchange, 18
  • CNBC PRO, 88
  • Coca-Cola (KO), 153–159
  • Cointegrating price series, 148–153
  • Cointegration, 35, 63, 147–159
  • ComboTrader, 97
  • Commission fees, 25, 84, 101
  • Commission rate, 85
  • Commodity futures markets, 183–186
  • Compartmentalization, of programming work, 101
  • Competition, 124, 137, 194–195
  • Compound annualized growth rate (CAGR), 47
  • Compustat, 163
  • Computer requirements, for trading, 88
  • Concatenating arrays, 201
  • Conditional Parameter Optimization (CPO), xiv, 62, 138–147
  • Confidentiality, 100–101
  • Constraints,on institutional traders, 195
  • Contemporaneous factor models, 161–163
  • Continuous finance, 122
  • copula (software package), 37
  • Cornell University, 3
  • Correlation, 154–159
  • Cost of liquidity, 25
  • Covid-19 selloff, 7, 169
  • C++, 15, 94, 99, 200
  • CPO, see Conditional Parameter Optimization
  • Credit Suisse, 3
  • Cross-currency stationarity, 159
  • Cross-sectional factors, 161–164
  • Cross-sectional mean reversion, 134–135
  • CRSP.com, 41
  • C#, 15, 40, 94, 99
  • CSIdata.com, 41
  • Currencies, 5, 16, 41, 159, 187
  • Customer retention, 8
  • Customer support, programming, 37, 38
  • D
  • Dark-pool liquidity, 85, 103
  • Datafeed Toolbox, MATLAB, 204
  • Data-snooping bias:
    • in backtesting, 59–72
    • for institutional traders, 194
    • out-of-sample testing for, 61–71
    • paper trading to identify, 104
    • of prospective strategy, 28–29
    • during refinement, 77–78
    • and sample size, 60–61
    • and sensitivity analysis, 71–72
    • underperformance due to, 105
  • Day only orders, 96
  • DDE (dynamic data exchange) links, 94–99
  • Decimalization of stock prices, 105–106, 138
  • Deep Learning Toolbox, MATLAB, 204
  • Deflated Sharpe ratio, 60
  • Deleting arrays, 201
  • Despair, 129
  • Dickey-Fuller test, augmented, 149, 155
  • Directional trades, 16
  • Dividends, 41–44, 94
  • Dollar-neutral portfolio, 16, 48
  • Dollar-neutral trades, 16, 21
  • Dotcom bubble, 138, 169
  • Dow Jones, 41, 88
  • Drawdown:
    • defined, 23
    • for factor models, 169
    • maximum, 23, 24, 47, 53–57
    • of prospective strategies, 23–24
    • risk management to limit, 109
    • Sharpe ration and length/depth of, 22
    • shifting strategies during, xiii
    • shutting down models due to, 125
  • Drawdown duration, maximum, 23–24, 53–57
  • Due diligence, 33
  • Duration, position, 186–187
  • Dynamic data exchange (DDE) links, 94–99
  • E
  • Earnings, 29, 94, 135–136
  • Econometrics Toolbox, MATLAB, 35, 37, 204
  • The Economist, 169
  • Eifert, Benn, 12
  • Einstein, Albert, 3
  • elitetrader.com, 87, 100
  • E-mini S&P 500 future (ES), 5, 18–19, 25–26
  • Emotional stability, 83
  • Endowment effect, 126
  • Englander, Izzy, 14
  • Engle-Granger test of cointegration, 151, 153
  • Ensemble average, 127, 128
  • Entry signals, 77, 173–174
  • epchan.blogspot.com, 12, 14, 179
  • epchan.com/book, xix
  • Equity curve, 22–24
  • Equity markets:
    • high-frequency trading in, 187
    • seasonal trading in, 175–183
  • Errors, 47, 58, 98, 124, 135
  • ES, see E-mini S&P 500 future
  • ETFs, see GDX (gold miners ETF); GLD (gold ETF)
  • Excel, xvii
    • avoiding look-ahead bias with, 58
    • backtesting with, 3, 33–35, 73, 199
    • DDE links to, 94, 96, 98
    • in fully automated trading system, 99
    • maximum drawdown calculation in, 53–54
    • maximum drawdown duration in, 53–54
    • Sharpe ratio calculation in, 49–50, 52
    • trading strategies using, 15
  • Excess returns, factor model, 161–163
  • Exchange traded funds (ETFs), see GDX (gold miners ETF); GLD (gold ETF)
  • Execution systems, 93–108
    • actual vs. expected performance of, 104–107
    • automated trading systems, 93–101
    • brokerage/proprietary trading firm selection based on, 85–86, 103
    • fully automated trading systems, 94, 98–100
    • for high-frequency strategies, 188
    • for minimizing transaction costs, 101–103
    • paper trading to test, 103–104
    • semiautomated trading systems, 94–98
    • slippage due to, 25
  • Exit orders, 77, 97
  • Exit signals, 169–174
  • Expected compound rate of growth of capital, 127–128
  • Expected performance, actual vs., 104–107
  • Experience, trader, 83
  • F
  • Factor exposure, 160–162
  • Factor loadings, 160
  • Factor models, 160–169
  • Factor returns, 160, 162–164, 168–169
  • FactSet, 41
  • Fama-French Three-Factor Model, 160–161, 188–189
  • Fat tails, 122
  • Feature set, CPO, 139, 141
  • Federal Reserve, 175, 196
  • fGarch (software package), 37
  • Financial contagion, 120–122
  • Financial crisis (2007-2008), 2, 120–121
  • Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), 82, 84, 87
  • Financial instruments. See also specific types
    • capital availability and selection of, 15–19
    • growth and investment in new, 197
  • Financial Instruments Toolbox, MATLAB, 204
  • Financial Toolbox, MATLAB, 35, 204
  • find function, MATLAB, 202
  • FINRA, see Financial Industry Regulatory Authority
  • Fixed holding period, 169–173
  • Fixed-income instruments, cointegrating, 159
  • Flirting with Models, 12
  • Freelance programming consultants, 100
  • Fully automated trading system, 94, 98–100
  • Fundamental data, 1–2, 17, 123
  • Fundamental factors, 168
  • Fundamental valuation, 173
  • Futures:
    • capital availability for trading, 18–19
    • gasoline, 183–185
    • high-frequency trading in, 187
    • historical databases of, 41
    • leverage for trading, 5, 16
    • natural gas, 185–186
  • fwdshift function, MATLAB, 177
  • G
  • G, see Long-term compounded growth rate
  • GameStop short squeeze, 121–122
  • Gasoline futures, 183–185
  • Gaussian return distribution, 110, 122, 131–132, 189
  • GDX (gold miners ETF):
    • cointegrating price series for GLD vs., 148–153
    • CPO for mean-reversion strategy on, 140–147
    • half-life of mean-reverting time series for, 171–173
    • pair trading of GLD and, 63–71
  • Gell-Mann, Murray, 127, 128
  • Geometric mean, 112
  • Geometric random walk, 111–112, 147
  • GLD (gold ETF):
    • cointegrating price series for GDX vs., 148–153
    • CPO for mean-reversion strategy on, 140–147
    • half-life of mean-reverting time series for, 171–173
    • pair trading of GDX and, 63–71
  • Global Optimization Toolbox, MATLAB, 204
  • Goal, strategy selection based on, 19–20
  • Godot Finance, 12
  • Goldman Sachs, 85, 95–96, 121
  • Gold spot price, 21
  • Good Till Cancel orders, 96
  • Graphics library, MATLAB, 200
  • Greed, 129
  • greencompany.com, 85
  • Growth stocks, 169
  • H
  • Half-Kelly betting, 112, 122–123
  • Half-life, mean-reverting time series, 170–173
  • “Hard to borrow” stocks, 106
  • Harris, Mike, 12
  • Hedge funds, 120–122, 193, 198
  • Hedge portfolios, 160
  • Hedge ratio, 68–69, 149, 151
  • Herdlike investor behavior, 136–137
  • High-beta portfolios, 188–189
  • High-capital accounts, 15–19
  • High data, in historical databases, 46–47
  • High-frequency trading:
    • automated systems for, 94, 100
    • capital availability for, 17
    • data-snooping bias and, 59
    • growth in, 197
    • programming skills for, 15
    • strategies involving, 186–188
  • High-leverage portfolios, 188–189
  • High-minus-low (HML) factor, 161, 169
  • High-speed internet connection, for trading, 88
  • High watermark, 23
  • Historical data, 29, 40–41
  • Historical databases:
    • backtesting with, 40–47
    • errors in, 135
    • high and low data in, 46–47
    • split and dividend adjusted date on, 41–44
    • survivorship-bias free data in, 44–46
  • HML (high-minus-low) factor, 161, 169
  • Hoffstein, Corey, 12
  • Holding period:
    • fixed, 169–173
    • and lookback period, 119–120
    • optimal, 170–173
    • return consistency and, 19
  • HTTP requests, 99
  • Hunter, Brian, 129
  • I
  • IBM, 3
  • IBroker, 94
  • IDEs (Integrated Development Environments), 37, 38
  • Incorporation, 82–83
  • Incremental execution, for large orders, 102, 136
  • Independent traders:
    • average daily volume for, 101–102
    • business structure for, 81–85
    • characteristics of, 3–4
    • drawdown for, 24
    • exchange of ideas for, 13, 14
    • performance of, xi, 193–196
    • processes for, 8–9
    • programming consultants for, 100
    • psychological preparedness for, 130
    • quantitative trading for, xv–xvi
  • Industry, cointegration of stocks in same, 153
  • Information ratio, 21
  • Institutional traders:
    • drawdown for, 24
    • independent trading strategies for, xvi
    • low-priced stock trades for, 101
    • market impact costs for, 102
    • performance of, xi, 193–196
    • prospective strategies that compete with, 30
    • psychological preparedness for, 129–130
    • qualifications of, 2
    • quantitative trading for, xv–xvi
  • Integrated Development Environments (IDEs), 37, 38
  • Interactive Brokers (IBKR), 17
    • databases for backtesting from, 41
    • dividend and earnings data from, 94
    • execution by, 96–97
    • execution system of, 85–86
    • portfolio margin with, 16
    • programming consultant referrals from, 100
    • RESTful API of, 99
    • retrieving input data with, 95
  • Interday positions, 16
  • Internet software firm, profitability for, 9
  • Intraday positions, 16, 18, 41
  • Investment products, 8, 86
  • ITG, 85
  • J
  • January effect, 175–179
  • Java, 15, 94, 99
  • K
  • Kahneman, Daniel, 127
  • Kavanaugh, Paul, 184
  • Kelly formula, 111–125
    • for capital allocation, 111–112, 114–119
    • defined, 111
    • with Gaussian return distribution, 131–132
    • half-Kelly betting, 112, 122–123
    • for leverage, 112, 113
    • maximum capital and leverage from, 120
    • psychological preparedness to use, 129–130
    • for risk management, 120–125
  • Kerviel, Jérôme, 196
  • Khandani, Amir, 72, 120, 135
  • Knight Capital Group, 98
  • KO (Coca-Cola), 153–159
  • Kurzweil, Ray, 28
  • L
  • Lagged historical data, 58
  • Large numbers, law of, 187
  • Large orders, incremental execution of, 102, 136
  • LastTradingDayOfMonth function, MATLAB, 180–181
  • Law of large numbers, 187
  • lcb1.uoregon.edu, 179
  • LEAN engine, 40
  • Legal requirements, for proprietary trading, 82, 84
  • Legg Mason, 88
  • LeSage, James, 204
  • Leverage:
    • in high-frequency trading, 187–188
    • high-leverage portfolios, 188–189
    • impact of despair and greed on, 129
    • for institutional traders, 194
    • Kelly formula for, 110, 112, 113
    • and long-term capital gain, 19–20
    • for low-capital accounts, 16
    • and MAR ratio, 48
    • maximum, 112, 120, 123
    • optimal, 109–111, 113
    • overleveraging, 5, 129, 194
    • reducing, 124–125
    • in retail vs. proprietary trading, 81–82, 84
    • scaling up by using, 5
  • Leveraged return, 22
  • Liability, 82–83
  • Limited liability companies (LLCs), 82–83
  • Limit orders, 46
  • Limit prices, 97
  • Linear scales, order size and market cap, 102
  • Liquidity:
    • average daily volume as measure of, 101–102
    • and capacity, 194
    • cost of, 25
    • dark-pool, 85, 103
    • in high-frequency trading strategies, 187
    • in mean-reverting regimes, 123–124
    • momentum changes due to private, 136–137
  • Liquidnet, 85
  • LLCs (limited liability companies), 82–83
  • Lo, Andrew, 72, 120, 135
  • Long-only strategies, 20, 48–51, 195
  • Long–short dollar-neutral strategy, 20
  • Long-term capital gain, 19–20
  • Long-Term Capital Management, 129, 193
  • Long-term compounded growth rate (g):
    • and high-leverage vs. high-beta portfolios, 189
    • maximized, 112–113
    • for optimal capital allocation, 116
    • optimization of, 110
    • for stock with geometric random walk, 111–112
  • Long-term wealth, 110
  • Look-ahead bias:
    • in backtesting, 58–59
    • checking for, in MATLAB, 67
    • paper trading to identify, 103
    • predictors of, 29
    • using Excel to avoid, 34
  • Lookback period, 119–120
  • Loss aversion, 126–128
  • Losses:
    • behavioral biases and, 126, 128, 129
    • in high-frequency trading, 187–188
    • P&L data, 103–104, 204
    • position size and, 120
    • at quantitative hedge funds, 193, 198
  • Low-beta stocks, 189
  • Low-capital accounts, 15–19
  • Low data, in historical databases, 46–47
  • Low-priced stocks, 101
  • M
  • Machine learning, xii
    • for backtesting strategies, 38
    • in Conditional Parameter Optimization, 138–139, 146
    • for predicting returns on strategy, 146
  • McKinney, Wes, 37
  • Macroeconomic factors, 27, 168
  • Magazines, trading strategies from, 12
  • Manual interference, in trading, 6–7, 125–126
  • Market capitalization, 102
  • Market factor, 161
  • Market impact, 25, 83, 101–102
  • Market index, 20, 21
  • Marketing, 7–8
  • Market-neutral portfolio, 16, 51–53
  • Market on close (MOC) orders, 46–47
  • Market on open (MOO) orders, 46–47, 78
  • MAR ratio, 47–48
  • MASS (software package), 37
  • Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), 72
  • Mathworks, Inc., 199
  • MATLAB, xiii, xvii, 199–204
    • analyzing January effect in, 175–177
    • array processing in, 199–203
    • avoiding look-ahead bias with, 58–59
    • backtesting with, 33–36
    • benefits of, 199–200, 203–204
    • cointegrating pairs of stocks formed with, 149–150
    • correlation testing with, 156
    • evaluating transaction costs in, 73–75
    • execution programs in, 96–98
    • half-life of mean-reverting time series in, 171
    • maximum drawdown calculation in, 54–55
    • maximum drawdown duration in, 54–55
    • optimal capital allocation in, 114–116
    • out-of-sample testing with, 63–67
    • PCA factor model using, 164–165
    • Python vs., 37
    • retrieving Yahoo! Finance data with, 35–36
    • R vs., 38
    • Sharpe ratio in, 50, 52
    • year-on-year seasonal strategy in, 180–181
  • Mauboussin, Michael, 88
  • Maximum capital, 120
  • Maximum drawdown, 23, 24, 47, 53–57
  • Maximum drawdown duration, 23–24, 53–57
  • Maximum leverage, 112, 120, 123
  • Mean excess return, 116
  • Mean-reverting regimes, 123, 126, 163
  • Mean-reverting strategies:
    • exit signals for, 170–173
    • momentum strategies vs., 134–137
    • refining, 78
    • stationarity and cointegration of time series in, 133, 147, 153
    • transaction costs for, 26, 72–77
  • Mean-reverting time series, half-life of, 170–173
  • Melvin Capital, 138
  • “Meme” stocks, 138
  • Metalabeling, xii, 29
  • Micro E-mini contracts (MES), 19
  • Millennium Partners, 14
  • Mini gasoline futures, 184
  • Minimum backtest length, 60–61
  • Mini natural gas futures, 186
  • MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), 72
  • mnormt (software package), 37
  • MOC (market on close) orders, 46–47
  • Model risk, 124–125
  • Momentum, of factor returns, 162–163, 168–169
  • Momentum regimes, 123, 126, 135–137
  • Momentum strategies:
    • exit signals for, 169–170, 173, 174
    • mean-reverting strategies vs., 134–137
  • Money management, 8
  • Monitors, for trading, 89
  • MOO (market on open) orders, 46–47, 78
  • Morgan Stanley, 3
  • Mortgage-backed securities, 2
  • Moving parameter optimization, 61
  • MSCI, 163
  • Multidimensional arrays, in MATLAB, 202
  • Multiple accounts, 87
  • Murphy, Kevin, 204
  • Mutiny Fund, 12
  • mvregress function, MATLAB, 165
  • N
  • National Bureau of Economic Research, 12
  • Natural disaster risk, 125
  • Natural gas futures, 185–186
  • NAV (net asset value), 16
  • NDAs (nondisclosure agreements), 100
  • Net asset value (NAV), 16
  • News announcements, 123, 136
  • News-driven strategies, 17
  • Newsfeeds, 88
  • Newspapers, trading strategies from, 12
  • New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), 183–185
  • New York Times, 28, 136
  • Noise, overfitting data to, 29
  • Nominal return, 22
  • Nondisclosure agreements (NDAs), 100
  • Nonfarm payroll surprises, 29
  • Nonreflexive targets, 29
  • Nonstationary financial time series, 27
  • Northwestern University, 38
  • NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange), 183–185
  • O
  • Oanda, 86
  • Objective, in optimization problem, 110
  • Operational problems, 104
  • Optimization. See also Parameter optimization
    • asset allocation, 189
    • capital allocation, 109–111, 114–119
    • deriving Kelly formula for, 109–111
    • hedge ratio, 149, 151
    • holding period, 170–173
    • leverage, 110, 112–113
    • long-term compounded growth rate, 110
  • Optimization Toolbox, MATLAB, 204
  • Options trading, 5, 16
  • OptionTrader, 97
  • Ornstein-Uhlenbeck formula, 170–173
  • Out-of-sample testing, 61–71
    • with MATLAB, 63–67
    • with Python, 67–69
    • with R, 69–71
  • Overleveraging, 5, 129, 194
  • P
  • Pair-trading strategy, 63–71, 77, 97, 147
  • PanAgora Asset Management, 189
  • Panel data, 203–204
  • Paper trading, 62–63, 86, 103–104
  • Parameterless trading models, 62
  • Parameter optimization, 60–62, 138
  • Part-time traders, 14–15
  • Party at the Moontower, 12
  • PEAD (post earnings announcement drift), 11, 136
  • Pepsi (PEP), 153–159
  • Performance:
    • actual vs. expected, 104–107
    • changes in strategy, 27–28
    • factor model, 168–169
    • of institutional vs. independent traders, xi, 193–196
    • measurements of, 2, 47–57
    • survivorship bias and, 45–46
    • of Unconditional vs. Conditional Parameter Optimization, 146
  • Personnel, reinvesting in, 197
  • Peters, Ole, 127, 128
  • PFGBest, 184
  • Pharmaceutical stocks, 77
  • Physical infrastructure, 87–89, 197
  • P&L (profit and loss) data, 103–104, 204
  • plotly (software package), 36
  • Plus-tick rule, 106, 138
  • Podcasts, strategies from, 12, 13
  • Point-in-time data, 27, 44
  • Portfolio managers, xv–xvi
  • Portfolio margin, 16
  • Portfolio size, risk management and, 129
  • Posit, 85
  • Position file, 59
  • Position risk, 120–124
  • Position size, losses/profits and, 120
  • Positive correlation, 154
  • Post earnings announcement drift (PEAD), 11, 136
  • predictnow.ai, xix, 140, 142
  • Predictors (term), 29
  • Price:
    • cointegrating price series, 148–153
    • limit, 97
    • in quantitative trading, 7–8
    • target, 173
  • Price-to-earnings factor exposure, 161–162
  • Price-to-earnings factor return, 162
  • Princeton-Newport Partners, xvi
  • Principal component analysis (PCA), 35, 100, 163–168
  • Private liquidity needs, momentum changes due to, 136–137
  • Profit:
    • greed after earning, 129
    • for independent traders, 193–196
    • P&L data, 103–104, 204
    • in retail vs. proprietary trading, 82
  • Profitability:
    • of high-frequency strategies, 187, 188
    • modifying public strategies to increase, 13
    • and position size, 120
    • of quantitative trading, 8–9
    • Sharpe ratio and, 23
  • Profit cap, as exit signal, 174
  • Profit-sharing contracts, 198
  • Programming consultants, 100–101
  • Programming skills, strategy fit to, 15
  • Proprietary trading firms:
    • capital availability in, 15, 17
    • defined, 82
    • leverage in, 5
    • physical infrastructure in, 87–88
    • profit-sharing contracts with, 198
    • retail brokerage accounts vs. joining, 81–85
    • selecting, 85–87
  • Prospective trading strategy(-ies):
    • identifying suitable, 14–20
    • quick checks for, 20–30
    • sources of information on, 11–12
  • Psychological preparedness, 125–130, 195
  • Python, xiii, xvii, 203
    • analyzing January effect in, 177–178
    • avoiding look-ahead bias with, 58–59
    • backtesting with, 36–38
    • cointegration and correlation testing with, 156–157
    • evaluating impact of transaction costs in, 75–76
    • forming cointegrating pairs of stocks, 150–151
    • half-life of mean-reverting time series in, 171–172
    • and MATLAB, 34, 36
    • maximum drawdown calculation in, 56
    • maximum drawdown duration in, 56
    • optimal capital allocation in, 116–117
    • out-of-sample testing with, 67–69
    • PCA factor model using, 165–167
    • on QuantConnect/Blueshift platforms, 40
    • Sharpe ratio in, 51–53
    • year-on-year seasonal strategy in, 181–182
  • Python for Data Analytics (McKinney), 37
  • Q
  • Qian, Edward, 189
  • QTS, 198
  • Quandl, 95
  • QuantConnect, 40, 94, 95, 99
  • QuantInsti, 40
  • Quantitative Brokers, 86
  • Quantitative traders, 2–4
  • Quantitative trading. See also Trading strategy(-ies)
    • business case for, 4–8
    • defined, 1
    • effectiveness of, xi, 193–196
    • exit signals in, 169–174
    • factor models for, 160–169
    • hedge fund losses in, 193, 198
    • high-leverage vs. high-beta portfolios, 188–189
    • processes for sustained profitability from, 8–9
    • regime change and CPO for, 137–147
    • stationarity and cointegration in, 147–159
    • volume of, xv
  • Quantocracy, 12
  • Quantpedia, 12
  • R
  • R (programming language), xiii, xvii
    • analyzing January effect in, 178–179
    • avoiding look-ahead bias with, 58–59
    • backtesting with, 38–39
    • cointegrating pairs of stocks formed with, 151–153
    • cointegration and correlation testing with, 157–159
    • evaluating transaction costs in, 76–77
    • half-life of mean-reverting time series in, 172–173
    • maximum drawdown calculation in, 57
    • maximum drawdown duration in, 57
    • optimal capital allocation in, 118–119
    • out-of-sample testing with, 69–71
    • PCA factor model using, 167–168
    • Python vs., 37
    • Sharpe ratio in, 51, 53
    • year-on-year seasonal strategy in, 182–183
  • R2 statistic, of factor model, 162
  • Random walk, 111–112, 134, 147
  • Raviv, Eran, 12
  • Real-time market data, access to, 16–17
  • Reddit, 121, 138
  • REDIPlus trading platform, 85–86, 96, 97
  • Refco collapse, 86
  • Regenstein, Jonathan, 39
  • Regime, defined, 133
  • Regime shifts, 198
    • alpha decay due to, xii
    • and conditional parameter optimization, 137–147
    • and data-snooping bias, 60
    • model risk due to, 124
    • performance changes due to, 27–28
    • predicting, 137–138
    • underperformance of live trading due to, 105–107
  • Regulation T, 5, 16, 81–83
  • Reinvestment, 197–198
  • Remote trading, 87–88
  • Renaissance Institutional Equities Fund, 121
  • Renaissance Technologies Corporation, 121
  • Representativeness bias, 128–129
  • Reproducible Finance with R (Regenstein), 39
  • Reputation, of proprietary trading firm, 86–87
  • Research and development, 7, 11–12
  • RESTful API, 99
  • Retail traders:
    • brokerage accounts of proprietary vs., 81–85
    • capital availability for, 15
    • maximum leverage for, 112
    • in "meme" stocks, 138
    • quantitative trading for, xv–xvi
    • simple trading strategies for, xv–xvi
  • Return consistency, 19–21
  • Reversal strategies, 169, 174
  • Reverse splits, 42
  • Risk aversion, 4
  • Risk-free rate, 48
  • Risk management, xvi, 120–132
    • for institutional traders, 195–196
    • Kelly formula for, 120–125
    • model risk, 124–125
    • natural disaster risk, 125
    • position risk, 120–124
    • and psychological preparedness, 125–130
    • in retail vs. proprietary trading, 83, 84
    • software risk, 125
    • stop loss for, 123–124
  • “Risk Parity Portfolios” (Qian), 189
  • Robinhood, 99
  • Round-trip transactions, 25
  • RStudio, 38
  • rugarch (software package), 37
  • Ruin, 110, 127
  • Russell 2000 index, 21
  • S
  • SAC Capital Advisors, 22
  • Sample size, data-snooping bias and, 60–61
  • Savings, 4
  • Scalability of trading business, 5
  • Schiller, Robert, 136
  • Scikit-learn, 36
  • S corporation, 82–83
  • seaborn (software package), 36
  • “Seasonal Trades in Stocks” blog post, 13–14
  • Seasonal trading strategies, 174–186
    • exit signals for, 169
    • for gasoline futures, 183–185
    • and January effect, 175–179
    • for natural gas futures, 185–186
    • year-on-year, 179–183
  • Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC):
    • auditing of proprietary firms by, 86
    • non-broker-dealer shutdowns by, 87
    • plus-tick rule of, 106, 138
    • regulations on proprietary trading from, 82
    • Regulation T, 5, 16, 81–83
  • Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC), 84, 86
  • Semiautomated trading systems, 94–98
  • Sensitivity analysis, 71–72
  • Sharadar, 18, 41, 163
  • Sharpe ratio:
    • annualized, 48–49
    • defined, 21–22
    • deflated, 60
    • estimating, 22–23
    • of high-frequency trading strategies, 186, 187
    • for long-term capital gain, 19–20
    • and long-term compounded growth rate, 112–113
    • and minimum backtest length, 60–61
    • for optimal capital allocation, 116
    • and transaction costs, 72
  • Short positions, 106, 138
  • Short-term income, 19
  • Short-term mean reversal model, 135
  • Signal Processing Toolbox, MATLAB, 204
  • Simons, Jim, xvi
  • Simulator accounts, 86
  • Sinclair, Euan, 12
  • SIPC (Securities Investor Protection Corporation), 84, 86
  • Slippage, 25, 89, 102, 103
  • Small businesses, 4–8
  • Small-cap stocks. See also S&P 600 SmallCap Index
    • academic strategies with, 12
    • benchmark for, 21
    • January effect for, 175
    • liquidity of, 102
    • SMB factor and, 161
  • Small-minus-big (SMB) factor, 161
  • smartmean function, MATLAB, 74
  • smartstd function, MATLAB, 74–75
  • smartsum function, MATLAB, 74
  • SMB (small-minus-big) factor, 161
  • Social media, xiii
  • Social Science Research Network, 12
  • Société Générale scandal, 175, 196
  • Software bugs, 103, 125
  • Software risk, 125
  • S&P 500 stocks:
    • backtesting year-on-year strategy with, 179–183
    • liquidity of, 102
    • maximum leverage for, 123
    • transaction cost for trading, 25
    • as universe for strategy, 73, 74
  • S&P 600 SmallCap Index, 21, 102, 164–168, 175–179
  • S&P Capital IQ, 163
  • Specific return, factor model, 160
  • speedytradingservers.com, 89
  • Split-adjusted data, 41–44
  • Spreads:
  • Spread_EMA, 147
  • SpreadTrader, 97
  • Spread traders, 94, 96–97
  • Spread_VAR, 147
  • SPY, see Standard & Poor's depositary receipts
  • Standard deviation of returns, 49
  • Standard & Poor's, 73. See also entries beginning S&P
  • Standard & Poor's depositary receipts (SPY), 29, 51–53, 113, 119, 120
  • Stationarity, 147, 148, 153, 159
  • Statistical arbitrage trading, xviii
    • backtesting models with, 73–77
    • decimalization of stock prices and, 105–106
    • defined, 2
    • key points of, 3, 190–191
  • Statistical factors, 163
  • Statistics and Machine Learning Toolbox, MATLAB, 35, 37, 204
  • Status quo bias, 126
  • Sterge, Andrew, 106
  • Stocks:
    • backtesting strategies for selecting, 73–77
    • historical databases of, 41
    • universe for investments in, 73, 74, 77
    • using AI to select, 28–29
  • Stock prices:
    • decimalization of, 105–106, 138
    • low-priced stocks, 101
    • random-walking, 111–112, 134
  • Stocks, Futures and Options magazine, 12
  • Stock splits, 41–44
  • Stop loss orders, 123–124, 174
  • Stripe Atlas, 83
  • Subadvisors, 197, 198
  • Subarray selection, in MATLAB, 201–202
  • Survivorship bias:
    • in backtesting, 26–27, 58, 73, 135
    • defined, 26
    • historical data without, 17, 18, 44–46
    • and performance changes over time, 27
  • Swiss Franc unpegging, 82
  • T
  • T. J. Watson Research Center, 3
  • Tables, MATLAB, 203
  • Taleb, Nassim, 122
  • Target price, 173
  • Tax considerations, 84–85, 175
  • Technical analysis, 1
  • Technical Analysis library, Python, 141
  • Technologies Corp., xvi
  • Test set, 61, 71–72, 77
  • Text parsing, 35–36, 200
  • Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kahneman), 127
  • Third-party backtesting packages, 35, 36
  • Thomson Reuters, 41, 88
  • Thorp, Edward, xvi, 110, 132
  • Tick Data, 41
  • Time commitment:
    • for preparing orders, 104
    • for running trading business, 5–7
    • strategy selection to fit, 14–15
  • Time constraints on backtesting, 79
  • Time horizon, regime and, 134, 136–137
  • Time series average, 127, 128
  • Time-series factors, 162–164
  • Time-series factor models, 160–161
  • Time-series mean reversion, 134
  • Tipping point, 137
  • Trade, defined, 73
  • Trader forums, 12–13
  • Trade secrets, 84, 196
  • TradeStation, 99–100
  • Trading businesses, 81–90
    • growth of, 197–198
    • marketing for, 7–8
    • other small businesses vs., 4–8
    • physical infrastructure of, 87–89
    • scalability of, 5
    • selecting brokerage/proprietary trading firm for, 85–87
    • structure of, 81–85
    • time demands of, 5–7
  • Trading capital, 15–19
  • Trading frequency, 22, 197
  • Trading parameters, defined, 139
  • Trading strategy(-ies), 11–31
    • backtesting of, 33
    • effective, xi–xiii
    • finding your own, xvii–xviii
    • high-frequency, 186–188
    • identifying suitable, 14–20
    • mean-reverting vs. momentum, 134–137
    • metalabeling of, xii
    • modifying, after regime change, 138
    • quick checks for prospective, 20–30
    • refining, after backtesting, 77–78
    • seasonal, 174–186
    • simplicity of, 3
    • sources of, 11–14
  • Trading style restrictions, 84
  • Trading Toolbox, MATLAB, 35, 94, 99, 204
  • Traditional investment management, 33
  • Training, 82, 84
  • Training set, 61, 139, 141
  • Transaction costs:
    • backtesting with, 67, 72–77
    • brokerage/proprietary trading firm, 85
    • changes in, over time, 27
    • execution systems for minimizing, 101–103
    • with high-frequency strategies, 188
    • impact of, on prospective strategy, 24–26
    • underperformance due to, 105
  • Transposing arrays, in MATLAB, 202
  • Trending strategies, see Momentum strategies
  • Truncated data, 59
  • Tuco Trading, 87
  • Twitter, xiii, 12
  • Two Sigma, 37
  • U
  • Unconditional Parameter Optimization, 139, 141–147
  • Uncorrelated factor returns, 164
  • undocumentedmatlab.com, 99
  • Unexecuted orders, canceling, 97
  • Uninterruptible power supply (UPS), 88
  • United States, incorporation in, 82–83
  • US Treasury bills, 20
  • Upwork.com, 100
  • User-generated toolboxes, MATLAB, 204
  • V
  • Value stocks, HML factor and, 161, 169
  • Value strategies, 26–27, 45–46
  • Vector processing, 200–201
  • Version conflicts, Python, 36–37
  • Virtual private server (VPS), 88–89
  • Virtu Financial, 98
  • Visual Basic, 15, 34, 96, 98, 99, 199, 200
  • VPS (virtual private server), 88–89
  • W
  • Walk Forward Optimization, 139
  • Wall Street Horizon, 94
  • Wealth, as objective, 4, 5
  • Wealth-Lab, 13
  • “What Happened to the Quants in August 2007?” (Khandani and Lo), 120–121
  • “Where Have All the Stat Arb Profits Gone?” (Sterge), 106
  • Windows Remote Desktop, 89
  • Winners-minus-losers (WML) factor, 162
  • Wittgenstein, Ludwig, 123
  • Working hours, strategy fit to, 14–15
  • WorldCom, 86
  • Y
  • Yahoo! Finance, 18
    • databases from, 41–44
    • retrieving data from, 35–36, 38, 39
  • Year-on-year seasonal trading strategy, 179–183
  • Z
  • Zacks, 94
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