Chapter 14
(Foregone) Conclusions
Side Effects and the Challenges Ahead
By far, the biggest and most daunting challenge facing the digital, streaming movie and television business is PIRACY. Its the scourge of our times, and is often, literally, a virus that infects all media. Currently, traditional media is playing whack-a-mole with unlawful postings on YouTube and other sitescosting time, money and driving up prices. Even live sporting events can be compromised, and legitimate live streaming social media apps (Meercat and Periscope) have encountered credibility issues with program suppliers. As Daniel Frank reported in Emmy magazine, Sports celebritiesjust as they did with Twittermight be the first content creators to realize the commercial potential of live social streaming. Tennis star Roger Federer made himself a digital trailblazer in June [2015] when he broadcast the run-up to his Wimbledon performance on Periscope.
I couldnt find a single person whos confident that Hollywood, Washington, DC, or any country has a viable antidote or solution to piracy. But most executives agree that the main directive is making high-resolution content thats affordably accessible, relative to low quality, illegal downloads. In other words, you get what you pay forand if youre watching movies and TV series via Pirate Bay or any other number of illegal download sites, youre not getting the fully authentic (or authenticated) viewing experience.
As long as there are ways to monetize content, viewers will find ways to avoid paying for it. But while people love getting stuff for free, many are persnickety when it comes to sound and picture quality. If you can get both, for a reasonable price, and not have to worry about technical glitches, social stigma, moral shame, and/or the FBI showing up at your door to arrest you for copyright infringement and illegal downloading, then you might as well subscribe to a digital network and get on with your life. Creative liberation and the revolution of commerce have a price tag, just like iTunes, Uber and free shipping from Amazon Prime. Welcome to America.
Piracy aside, there are still many more challenges ahead of us. But for every benefit, theres a potential side effect.
The Downside/Upside Of Digital, Streaming Television
Downside: Loss of privacy: They know who we are, where we go, what we watch, buy, eat and drinkand program according to uncanny algorithms.
Upside: They suggest incredible shows we would never discover—or remind us of those shows we had been meaning to watch for ages.
Downside: Accessing digital networks and content isnt so easy for the technically challenged, nor are all programs automatically available on the latest streaming devices and apps. Tim Connolly, the head of distribution for Hulu commented, The living room environment remains fragmented. In some cases, we have to renegotiate deals with 25 different device partners.1 There are also frustrating buffering issues during primetime.
Upside: Every innovative, revolutionary new system inevitably incurs temporary technical snafus. Look at the advent of the Affordable Care Act. Not even President Obama himself could ensure that his signature piece of legislation went smoothly. But the key word here is: temporary. Expect easily accessible, Digital TV Devices for Dummies in the near future.
Downside: Lack of transparency of ratings and accounting of viewer traffic as a metric for a shows success. Less negotiation leverage and benefit for creators.
Upside: Less pressure on the creators who might fear having their show canceled mid-season; theyll get a whole season order. As a viewer, youre secure that your time invested in watching is going to have a return, rather than your favorite show being cut off abruptly. However, as reported by Gerry Smith in Bloomberg Business (3/24/15): Nielsen, the company that measures TV audiences, will begin offering data on viewing by Netflix Inc. and Amazon Prime subscribers. Nielsen CEO Mitch Barns said, That will be the last significant portion of overall television content viewing that we dont already measure We really will have a full set of capabilities in the market to measure what we call the total audience across all screens, devices and platforms. Netflix and Amazon have, thus far, been unwilling to share what their subscribers watch. Thats given them leverage in negotiations for movies and reruns, and made it hard for TV networks to assess the value of past hits or to determine if streaming is hurting traditional viewing. At press time, Barns forecast hasnt come to fruition, but Im sure its on the streaming horizon.
Downside: Binge viewing as gateway to a new addiction? For adults with too much free time on their hands: Get a life. No harm, no foul. But for kids, there are some troubling studies. In its 2013 policy statement on Children, Adolescents, and the Media, the American Academy of Pediatrics cited shocking statistics from a Kaiser Family Foundation study in 2010: The average 8- to 10-year-old spends nearly 8 hours a day with a variety of different media, and older children and teenagers spend more than 11 hours per day. Television, long a popular babysitter, remains the dominant medium, but computers, tablets and cell phones are gradually taking over.
According to a study in the Journal of Youth and Adolescence, Teenagers who spend a lot of time playing violent video games or watching violent shows on television have been found to be more aggressive and more likely to fight with their peers and argue with their teachers. Catherine Steiner-Adair, Harvard-affiliated clinical psychologist (and author of the bestselling The Big Disconnect: Protecting Childhood and Family Relationships in the Digital Age) said, Were throwing screens at children all day long, giving them distractions rather than teaching them how to self-soothe, to calm themselves down If kids are allowed to play Candy Crush on the way to school, the car ride will be quiet, but thats not what kids need They need time to daydream, deal with anxieties, process their thoughts and share them with parents, who can provide reassurance. Technology is a poor substitute for personal interaction.
Upside (for adults): Ah, the bliss of marathon viewing and that transformative experience that you want to discuss and share on forums! Less simultaneous viewing, but more social media buzz. Were also seeing the binge view models influence on linear broadcast networks, with NBC offering all of its miniseries, Aquarius, in which David Duchovny plays a detective investigating the Manson murders; and also on basic cable, on which the TNT network has offered up all episodes of its 1960s set police drama, Public Morals, created by/starring/show-run by Ed Burns, on demand. And even though Disney CEO Tom Staggs insists that Disneys TV offerings (ABC, ABC Family, Disney Channel) are not going OTT anytime soon, I wouldnt buy stock in it. His direct quote, from the 2015 Media, Communications & Entertainment Conference (9/10/15): In the foreseeable future, I dont see over-the-top as being an outcome thats gonna happen. To bolster my skepticism, Staggs almost immediately reassured shareholders that Disneys networks will be ready to pivot on the TV side if a big change is deemed necessary. Not even Disney can afford to be a Sleeping Beauty these days.
Downside: Increased ADHD and decrease in the once treasured, shared viewing experience and day-after water cooler conversations following a particularly scintillating, buzz-worthy episode. And sometimes we cant even have the shared viewing experience at the movie theater. Many exhibitors refused to show Beasts of No Nation, as it was going to be available free online the same weekend. Movie theaters are keen to protect their 90 day exclusivity window on new releases.
Upside: The increase in online sharing, Twitter, Facebook, interconnectedness online where you find your tribe for your show. Forget the office water cooler moment. Now we have 24/7 access to the global water cooler.
Downside: The long gap between seasons: burning through episodes so quickly and the long wait for more.
Upside: The ability to change direction dramatically with a show as the gap is so long between seasons, e.g. House of Cards, Season 3.
Downside: Circumventing the pilot incubation process and going straight into a full order (series production). Are content creators losing the ability to taste test and tweak the recipe of the pilot before cooking up an additional 1013 episodes? Or, as one showrunner put it to me, You cant binge table read a whole series.
Upside: Circumventing the pilot incubation process and going straight into a full order (series production). It removes the pressure of development hell, endless pilot testing and the high risk that a pilot will never get a full series order and be relegated to the busted pilot heap. Allows for block shooting or cross-boarding more than 1 episode at a time to bring down production costs.
Downside: Downsizing profits to content creators: unprecedented demand for new content, but at lower budgets. Goodbye back-end profit participation (per the old syndication model) for most, as Netflix, Amazon, and Hulu are determined to produce and own their Originals.
Upside: Creative liberation. Some content creators are willing to earn less in exchange for creative freedom. Louis CKs arrangement with FX for Louie is a good example. (You can also read my interview with Jessica Rhoades of Blumhouse Productions Television on Jason Blums new approach to the micro-budget TV series in Chapter 2.)
Downside: “New Media” contracts with the entertainment unions (WGA, SAG/AFTRA, DGA) as an assist to upstartsbut when to remove the training wheels for corporate behemoths? (Sony Crackle, an AVOD digital network, makes some of its deals through a non-WGA signatory company, but Im sure that will change as Crackle expands into higher profit margins). And ESPN began layoffs of almost 300 staff in late 2015, reflecting the evolving TV landscape and changes in the domestic cable market. More subscribers are cutting the cord.
Upside: There has never been a higher demand for TV content, ever. More jobs for creators, writers, directors, actors, producers, distribution and marketing people they just might be in digital rather than conventional networks!
Downside: Are we in a content bubble? Whos going to be able to find so much new content, much less have the spare time to watch it? Can this glut of content sustain, or will we become overwhelmed causing many worthy shows to slip through the cracks?
Upside: Choices! As mentioned in Chapter 7, Showtime Networks CEO, David Nevins, said it best: There may be too much good television but there is never too much great television.
Downside: The devaluation of celebrity for established actors. Up until 2005, if an actor was on a hit series, everyone knew his/her name. When I was a kid, The Fonz (played by Henry Winkler on ABCs once phenomenally popular sitcom, Happy Days) was nationally known. Youd have to live under a rock to not know who he was. Today, you can be on a hit series and still remain relatively anonymous. Pop quiz: whats the name of the star of USA networks Mr Robot 2, available exclusively on Amazon Prime ? Give up? For the answer, please turn to the Endnotes section (even though Im sure youve already found the answer on your smartphone).
Upside: New voices, fresh talent and AUTHENTICITY. How great is it that showrunners and directors can now confidently cast the best actor for the role vs. the most famous one? Now casting can be in service of story, vs. in service of the marketing campaign around a familiar face.
A New Digital Darwinism
Weve talked about a new type of Digital Darwinism in relation to shows having second and third lives online and niche being the new mainstream. In this revolution, its clearly not just survival of the fittest. Amidst multiple side effects, curveballs such as piracy (the digital equivalent of a meteor or a black hole) disrupt everything. No one can foreseenot even algorithmswhats going to be a hit. Machines certainly arent going to tell us. Human nature is unpredictable. Our imaginations will tell us.
Stay tuned.