Key metrics

Momentum factors are typically derived from changes in price time series by identifying trends and patterns. They can be constructed based on absolute or relative return, by comparing a cross-section of assets or analyzing an asset's time series, within or across traditional asset classes, and at different time horizons.

A few popular illustrative indicators are listed in the following table:

Factor

Description

Relative Strength Indicator (RSI)

The RSI compares recent price changes across stocks to identify stocks as overbought or oversold. A high RSI (example, above 70) indicates overbought, and a low RSI (example below 30) indicates oversold. It uses the average price change for a given number of prior trading days with positive price changes and negative prices changes  to compute:
 

Price momentum

This factor computes the total return for a given number of prior trading days. In the academic literature, it is common to use the last 12 months but exclude the most recent month because of a short-term reversal effect frequently observed in most recent price movements, but shorter periods have also been widely used.

12-month price momentum Vol Adj

The 12-month price momentum adjusted for volatility factor normalizes the total return over the previous 12 months by dividing it by the standard deviation of these returns.

Price acceleration

Price acceleration calculates the gradient of the trend (adjusted for volatility) using a linear regression on daily prices for a longer and a shorter period, e.g., a one year and three months of trading days and compares the change in the slope as a measure of price acceleration.

Percent Off 52 week high

This factor uses the percent difference between the most recent and the highest price for the last 52 weeks.

 

Additional sentiment indicators include the following:

Factor

Description

Earnings estimates count

This metric ranks stocks by the number of consensus estimates as a proxy for analyst coverage and information uncertainty. A higher value is more desirable.

N month change in recommendation

This factor ranks stocks by the change in consensus recommendation over the prior N month, where improvements are desirable (regardless of whether they have moved from strong sell to sell or buy to strong buy and so on).

12-month change in shares outstanding

This factor measures the change in a company's split-adjusted share count over the last 12 months, where a negative change implies share buybacks and is desirable because it signals that management views the stock as cheap relative to its intrinsic and, hence, future value.

6-month change in target price

The metric tracks the 6-month change in mean analyst target price and a higher positive change is naturally more desirable.

Net earnings revisions

This factor expresses the difference between upward and downward revisions to earnings estimates as a percentage of the total number of revisions.

Short interest to shares outstanding

This measure is the percentage of shares outstanding currently being sold short, that is, sold by an investor who has borrowed the share and needs to repurchase it at a later day while speculating that its price will fall. Hence, a high level of short interest indicates negative sentiment and is expected to signal poor performance going forward.

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