Index

  •  
  • Academics, interaction (usefulness), 66
  • Ad hocery, 72–73
  • Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), 170
    • support, material constraint, 33f
    • Trump/Republican repeal efforts, 32, 59
  • Ahmadinejad, Mahmoud, 36
  • Allison, Graham, 124
  • Al-Qaeda, 177–178
  • American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), bipartisanship (absence), 87–88
  • American supremacy, unipolar moment, 128
  • Ancient Greece, power dynamics, 123–125
  • Anglo-Saxon laissez-faire consensus, end, 13
  • Appropriations bill, production, 167–168
  • Arab Spring, 37, 48, 248
  • Argentina
    • ideological bias, impact, 58–59
    • misery index, 57, 58f, 109
    • promise, performance (contrast), 56f
    • structural reforms/shock therapy, 55–56
  • Around the curve net assessment, 205–206
  • Asian Tigers
    • gross fixed capital formation, GDP percentage, 212f
    • productivity performance, 219f
  •  
  • Batson, Daniel, 34
  • Bayesian prior (Bayesian probability), 206–208, 208f
  • BCA reports, usage, 22–23
  • Berlin Wall, fall, 4
  • Biden, Joe, 86–87, 167, 170
  • Bipolarity, 10
  • Bipolar world, trade war, 127f
  • Black Swans, 20, 22, 24, 58
  • Blair, Tony, 85
  • Bolsonaro, Jair, 57, 59, 255–257
    • political capital, 77
  • Brazil, positive carry, 257f
  • Bregret, constraint, 79, 79f
  • Bremmer, Ian, 144
  • Brexit
    • analysis, 207
    • probability, 253f
    • referendum, 81
  • Brexit Party, rise, 52–54
  • Budget deficits (expansion)
    • Republican presidents, impact, 60f
    • Tea Party, impact, 63f
  • Buenos Aires Consensus, 13, 84f, 92f, 175
    • global shift, 95–96, 198
    • long-term predictions, 86–93
  • Bush, George H.W., 84, 127, 169
    • hegemonic stability, 9–10
  • Bush, George W., 127, 160, 169
  • Byrd rule, 169, 171
  •  
  • Cameron, David, 86
  • Capitalism, decomposition, 28, 254–258
  • Center-right economic policies, adoption, 85
  • Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
    • intelligence analysis manual, 72
    • spies, impact, 64–65
  • China
    • bad deals, 126
    • challenger status, 125–126
    • coastal provinces, democracy (shift), 98f
    • expansionism, limits, 101
    • free-market reforms, 210
    • GDP per capita, 99–100
    • median voter, presence (question), 93–101
    • middle class, 97f
      • impact, 100–101
    • MVT, application (absence), 98–99
    • policies, rethinking, 94
    • political risk, real estate (relationship), 96
    • reform insurance, 223
    • short-term competition, absence, 98
    • structural reforms, 95–96, 100
    • tolerance curves, 238, 240f
    • United States (Cold War), 122–123
  • Chinese Communist Party (CCP), 94, 98
    • leadership, connections, 100
  • Chirac, Jacques, 75
  • Christian Social Union (CSU), 115–116
  • Clinton, Bill, 127
    • hegemonic stability, 9–10
    • pro-globalization perspective, 84
  • “Coalition of the Radical Left” (SYRIZA), 120, 241
  • Competing hypotheses analysis, 31
  • Conditional probability, 230–233
  • Confirmation bias, impact, 140
  • Congressional Budget Act (1974), 167
  • Connected players, 51–55
  • Constitutional constraints, 161, 173
  • Constraint method, time (impact), 196–199
  • Constraint model, 41–42
  • Constraints, 262f
    • diagnosticity, 29–32
    • framework, 19, 38–39
    • objective distance, 43
    • policymakers, relationships, 138–140
  • Corbyn, Jeremy, 86
  • Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economy Security (CARES) Act, 88, 90
  • Corporate profits, 29, 30f
  • Corporate tax cuts, 60, 170–171
  • COVID-19 pandemic, 50, 140–141, 174–175, 261
    • ageism, 182f
    • Chinese approach, 181
    • constraints, 179
    • duration, 184f
    • hospitalization/fatality rates, 183f
    • impact, 13, 24, 43, 64, 183f, 217
    • material constraints, contrast, 178–186
    • non-linearity, 186–193
    • recession, 90, 93
    • reforms, 96
    • stimulus, impact, 63
    • Trump hoax claim, 176
  • Crimean Peninsula, Russian annexation, 11, 37, 152–159
  • Cultural Revolution (China), 94
  • Cummings, Dominic, 52
  • Curve-flattening approach/policies, 179, 181, 207, 261
  • Cyclical net assessment, 204–206
  •  
  • Darley, John, 34
  • Das Kapital (Marx), 27–28
  • Data, quality (importance), 31
  • Debt Supercycle, 24
    • reinflation, 25
  • Deglobalization, reversal (difficulty), 11
  • Democracy
    • effectiveness, measurement, 99
    • support, wealth (impact), 99f
  • Democratic socialism, 87
  • Democratization, Third Wave, 7, 78
  • Depression, effects, 185–186
  • Desk, term (usage), 47
  • Deutschmark, German dilution, 111f
  • Developed world, middle class stagnation, 12f
  • Diagnosticity, 29–32, 38–39
    • usage, 32–33
  • Dirigisme, 9, 174, 259
  • Dirigiste, 13, 85, 90
  • Discrete event, net assessment, 204–206
  • Disequilibrium, multipolarity (impact), 11f
  • Donbas War, 152–153
  • Draghi, Mario, 163–164
  •  
  • Economic Consequences of the Peace, The (Keynes), 6
  • Economic constraints, 137–141
  • Economic context
    • political capital measurement factor, 77
    • political constraint, 80
  • Economy, market (relationship), 103
  • Emerging markets (EMs), 254
    • balance-of-payments crisis, 103
    • geopolitical/political risks, 17
  • Entente Cordiale, 132
  • Equities, churn, 93
  • Euro Area
    • Germany, relationship, 112f, 115f
    • Greece exit, issues, 116–122
    • sovereign debt crisis, 122
  • Euro Area crisis, 106–109, 113–116, 137–138
    • 10-year government bond yield, 108f
    • assumptions/examination, 139f, 164
    • rescue, 162–164, 244
  • European Central Bank (ECB), 110, 163
    • Italian debt purchase, 138
    • monetary policy, acceptance, 139
  • European Economic Community (EEC), dollar peg, 111
  • European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), creation, 163
  • European Recovery Fund, proposal, 114
  • European Stability Mechanism (ESM), 163, 166
  • European Union (EU), 111–116
    • UK membership referendum, 247
  • European Union (EU), country exit, 109
  • Europe, Germany (relationship), 113f
  • “Europe's Geopolitical Gambit” (Papic), 205
  • Expert Political Judgment (Tetlock), 50, 71, 233
  • Experts, interaction (usefulness), 66–67
  •  
  • False experts, 47–51
  • Ferguson, Niall, 6
  • Fernández, Alberto, 58
  • Fernández de Kirchner, Cristina, 58
  • Fiduciary duty, outsourcing (impossibility), 65–67
  • Finance constraints, 106, 107–108
  • Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), FAS 157 amendment, 162
  • Financial industry, weaknesses, 14–15
  • Forecasters, knowledge base (problems), 138
  • Forecasts, basis, 72
  • Foreign domestic investment (FDI) (India), 213–217, 215f
  • France
    • Germany, relationship, 255f
    • structural reforms, 252f
  • Freedom Caucus, 61
  • Friedman, George, 144
  • Frontier markets (EMs), geopolitical/political risks, 17
  • Frugal Four, opposition, 114
  • Fulcrum constraint, 211–222
  • Fundamental attribution error, 35
    • usage, 35–38
  • Funnel, example, 55–59
  • Funneling, 46–47
  •  
  • Game theory, 235
    • game of chicken, 242f, 243f
    • player credibility, 237
    • simplistic games, caution, 241–243
    • two-level game, 240f
  • General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (Keynes), 6
  • Genex, problems, 4–5
  • Geopolitical alpha, 245
  • Geopolitical analysis, 16, 145, 260
  • Geopolitical events
    • market impact, 20, 21f
    • timeline, 23–25
  • Geopolitical forecasting, 204–206
  • Geopolitical paradigm shifts, 10–12, 46
  • Geopolitical risks, 224
  • Geopolitical Strategy (Papic), 122
  • Geopolitical theory, origins, 146–148
  • Geopolitics, 142, 160
    • constraint, 147–148
    • economics, contrast, 122–123
  • German Naval Laws (1898), 132
  • German Question, 109–116
  • Germany
    • Allies, trade (increase), 133f, 134f
    • deutschmark dilution, 111f
    • economic dependence/constraint, 113–114
    • economic reform, 112
    • Euro Area, relationship, 112f, 115f
    • Europe, relationship, 113f
    • France, relationship, 255f
    • rising German Euroscepticism, 114
    • Russia, pipelines (relationship), 157f
    • unification, 110
  • Gertken, Matt, 164
  • Global Financial Crisis, 198
  • Globalization
    • economic nationalism, contrast (Trump identification), 83–84
    • persistence, difficulty, 11
    • voter shift, 84
  • Global momentum
    • political capital measurement factor, 78
    • political constraint, 81
  • Goldilocks Era, 15
    • cessation, 6–10, 18
    • impact, 14
  • Good Samaritan, story, 35
  • Gorbachev, Mikhail, 104
    • Leningrad speech, 7
  • Great Depression, 23–24, 181
  • Great Leap Forward, 94, 100
  • Great Moderation, 15
  • Great Power geopolitics, 145
  • Great Recession (2008), 10–12, 24, 140, 162, 181
    • deaths, Lancet study, 184
  • Great Society, entitlement expansion, 24
  • Greece
    • crisis, game of chicken, 243f
    • economic disagreements, 117f
    • energy import, dependence, 119
    • Euro Area exit, issues, 116–122, 120f, 140
    • fiscal adjustments, 121f
    • manufacturing, export percentage, 118
    • mortality rate, increase, 185f
    • power dynamics, 123–125
    • tourism, GDP percentage, 119–120
  • Grexit, 118
  •  
  • Hard power, attainment, 146
  • Hartz IV reforms, 112
  • Hegel, Georg Wilhelm Friedrich, 28
  • Hegemonic stability, 9–10
  • Helicopter money, usage, 13
  • Heuer, Jr., Richards J., 30–32
  • History of the Peloponnesian War (Thucydides), 124
  • Hold-me-back incidents, 41, 42
  • House of Rothschild, The (Ferguson), 6
  • Huntington, Samuel, 100
  • Hussein, Saddam (regime collapse), 227
  •  
  • Ideological bias, impact, 58–59
  • Ideology, impact, 15
  • Imperial overstretch, 125
  • India
    • corporations, overtaxation, 213
    • COVID-19, impact, 217
    • dropoff, 211f
    • employment protection, strictness, 218f
    • export stagnation/manufacturing collapse, 216f
    • foreign direct investment (FDI), 213–217, 215f
    • gross fixed capital formation, GDP percentage, 212f
    • individuals, undertaxation, 212–213
    • investment thesis, 210f
    • marginal personal income tax rates, 214f
    • mean reversion, 209–211
    • national income share, inequality, 214f
    • net assessment, 209, 222–225
    • per-capita income, growth (deceleration), 221
    • rural wages, performance, 221f
    • taxes, increase, 213
    • trade war insurance, 222
    • underinvestment, fulcrum constraint, 211–218
  • I-neck recovery (US), 196f
  • Inequality, measurement, 89f
  • Influence of Sea Power upon History, The (Mahan), 146
  • Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, The (Smith), 6
  • Insiders (US), 59–64
  • Intelligence
    • access, importance, 65–66
    • intelligence-based political/geopolitical forecasting, limitations, 45–47
    • methodology, 38
    • model, weaknesses, 16–17
  • Investing, 45–47
  • Investment, fulcrum constraint (reasons), 218–222
  • Iran
    • avoidance, American opinion, 227f
    • bombing, Israeli hawk desire, 36–37
    • Iran-US conflict decision tree, 232f
    • US detente, 230
    • US-initiated war, constraints, 226–227
  • Islamic State, 37, 176–178, 198
  •  
  • Japan, US trade, 135f
  • J curve, 74–75, 74f
  • Jinping, Xi, 96, 131
  • Johnson, Boris, 52–55
    • ad-hoc method, application, 81
    • bravado, reason, 53f
    • political constraints, 79–81
    • rhetoric, 54, 78–81
  • Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)
    • Trump exit, 228–229
    • US deleverage, 226f
    • US/Iran agreement, 225
  • Jong-un, Kim, 35–36, 93
  •  
  • Keating, Paul, 85
  • Keynes, John Maynard, 6, 28, 137, 264
  • Kindleberger, Charles, 9
  • Krugman, Paul, 116
  •  
  • Laffer, Arthur, 172
  • Lagarde, Christine, 164
  • Laissez-faire capitalism, voter shift, 85
  • Laissez-faire economics, 9–12, 85, 133, 205
  • Laissez-faire ideology, perspective, 15
  • Laissez-faire orthodoxy, divergence, 87
  • Leaders, honeymoon period, 76–77
  • Legal constraints, 161, 173
  • Legislative math
    • political capital measurement factor, 77
    • political constraint, 80
  • Le Pen, Marine, 248–254, 259
    • euro, popularity, 251f
    • win, probability, 253f
  • Libya, fighting, 48–49
  • Lisbon Treaty, Article 125 (impact), 163–164
  • López Obrador, Andres Manuel (AMLO), 255–257
  •  
  • Maastricht Treaty, Article 104b (impact), 162–163
  • Machiavelli, Niccolò, 26–27, 28, 72
  • Mackinder, Halford, 146
  • Macri, Mauricio, 55–59, 75
    • constraints, 56–57
  • Macroeconomics, constraints, 106, 107
  • Macron, Emmanuel, 74, 114, 164, 251–252
  • Made in Germany (Williams), 131
  • Mahan, Alfred Thayer, 146
  • Market constraints, 137–141
  • Marković, Ante, 103–106
  • Mark-to-market regulation (FAS 157), amendment, 162
  • Marx, Karl, 27–29, 72
  • Mass hysteria, example, 178
  • Massie, Thomas, 88
  • Material constraints, 40
    • COVID-19, contrast, 178–186
    • terrorism, contrast, 176–178
  • Materialistic dialectic, 26–29, 38
  • Material power, comparison, 74
  • May, Theresa, 54, 80
  • McCain, John, 32, 33
  • Meadows, Mark, 61–62, 172
  • Mean reversion, 209–211
  • Median voter
    • preference, 175
    • public, relationship, 197
  • Median voter theorem (MVT), 81–85
    • danger, 83
    • predictions, 88
    • presence (China), 93–101
    • usage, 83, 84f
  • Mercantilism, 148
  • Merkel, Angela, 114–116, 164, 242–243
  • Mexico, positive carry, 257f
  • Middle class
    • goods inflation, 25f
    • impact (China), 100–101
    • measurement, 89f
    • stagnation, 12f
  • Middle East, war (net assessment), 225–233
  • Middle-income trap, 95f
  • Migration crisis, cessation, 250f
  • Misery Index, 57, 58f, 109
  • Mitterand, François ("110 Propositions for France"), 9
  • Modi, Narendra, 209–217, 222–224
  • Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact (1939), 151
  • Multipolarity, 10, 11f, 129, 174
  • Multipolar world
    • economic constraints, 131–137
    • instability, reasons, 129–130
    • trade war, 130f
    • US leadership problems, 136
  • Murkowski, Lisa, 33
  •  
  • Nationalism, 148–150
  • Netanyahu, Benjamin, 36
  • Net assessment, 203, 222–234
    • Bayesian prior, 206–208
    • types, 204–206
  • Newsom, Gavin, 179
  • New World Order, maintenance, 62
  • Nisbett, Richard E., 34–35
  • Nixon, Richard, 165–166
  • No-deal Brexit, 81
    • hysteria, 51f
    • meaning, 51–55
  •  
  • Obama, Barack, 59, 101, 149–150, 160
    • tariff, usage, 165
  • Office of Net Assessment (ONA), DoD analysis, 203–204
  • Oil shock/crisis (1973), 8, 24, 104
  • Orange Revolution (2005), 153–154
  •  
  • Parsley, Bayless, 47–49
  • Pelosi, Nancy, 13
  • Perestroika, 7
    • impact, 8f
  • Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (1996), 169
  • Person and the Situation, The (Ross/Nisbett), 34
  • Person, situation (contrast), 34–35
  • Political capital, factors, 75–78
  • Political constraints, 79–81, 99, 101–102
  • Political consultant, differentiation, 46
  • Political Order in Changing Societies (Huntington), 100
  • Political paradigm shift, 5, 14, 46
  • Political power, quantification (difficulty), 74
  • Political science theory, 126, 135
  • Politics, power study, 73–74
  • Popularity
    • political capital measurement factor, 75
    • political constraint, 79
  • Populist mentality, problems, 91
  • Power, duration
    • political capital measurement factor, 76–77
    • political constraint, 80, 100
  • Power, material balance, 237
  • Preference model
    • equation, 39–40
    • example, 40–42
  • Premature deindustrialization (Rodrik), 219–220
  • Prince, The (Machiavelli), 26–27
  • Prodi, Romano, 85
  • Productivity-enhancing policies, policymaker pursuit, 74–75
  • Proletariat revolution, Marx forecast, 29
  • Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (Heuer, Jr.), 30
  • Public support, regimes (consideration), 76f
  • Putin, Vladimir, 37–38, 159, 242
    • political capital, regaining, 75
  •  
  • Quantitative easing (QE), 25
  • Quant obsession, 14
  •  
  • Rajoy, Mariano (political capital), 77
  • Reagan, Ronald (tax reform rollback), 169
  • Realism, political science theory (focus), 126
  • Reconciliation process, 169–171
  • Regimes, public support, 76f
  • Regional contingency factor, 78
  • Regulators, interaction (usefulness), 67
  • Relative gain, 125–131
  • Relative power, 237, 242
  • Republicans
    • budget deficit expansion, 60f
    • profligacy, voter approval, 61f
  • Revanchist regimes, US challenge, 8
  • Revenue, COVID-19 (impact), 183f
  • Revenue neutrality (Tea Party), 172
  • Risk tolerance, 237
  • Rodrik, Dani, 219–221
  • Roosevelt, Theodore, 146
  • Ross, Lee, 34–35
  • Russia
    • aggression, constraints, 157–159
    • constraints, 152–159
    • membership perks, 154
    • value-add sphere imbalance, 157
  • Ryan, Paul, 87, 88
  •  
  • Sanders, Bernie, 86, 90
  • Schröder, Gerhard, 85
  • Second World War, market impact, 20, 21f
  • Securities Market Program (SMP), Draghi usage, 163–164
  • Self-selection, 14–15
  • Short-term competition, absence (China), 98–99
  • Silent majority, reforms, 250
  • Sinn, Hans-Werner, 117
  • Smith, Adam, 6
  • “Snake in the tunnel” (EEC dollar peg), 111
  • Snidal, Duncan, 126–128
  • Socialism, 254–258
  • Social mobility, measurement, 89f
  • Social psychology, 34, 38, 39, 72
  • Soros, George, 106
  • Soviet Union
    • collapse, 4, 7, 24, 93
    • GDP-per-capita growth, problems, 95
    • re-creation (Putin desire), 37–38
    • US (Cold War), 128
  • Special interest group support
    • political capital measurement factor, 77–78
    • political constraint, 80
  • Special purpose vehicle (SPV), 163
  • Statistical significance problem, 16–17
  • Structural reform, J curve, 74f
  • Supply-side revolution, Perestroika (impact), 8f
  • Syrian Civil War, 37
  •  
  • TARGET2 mechanism/imbalance, 122, 138
  • Tax cut, Republican peddling, 172–173
  • Tea Party, 171–173
    • budget deficit increases, 63f
    • rebellion, 59–61
  • Technocrats, interaction (usefulness), 66–67
  • Terrorism, material constraints (contrast), 176–178
  • Tetlock, Philip, 50, 71–73, 233
  • Thatcher, Margaret (neoliberal shock therapy), 9
  • Thatcher-Reagan revolution, demand-side policies, 8, 24
  • Third Way politics, 84f, 85
  • Three Represents, theory (Zemin), 94, 101
  • Thucydides Trap, 124–125
  • Time constraints, 174
  • Time in power
    • political capital measurement factor, 76–77
    • political constraint, 80, 99
  • Tolerance curves (China), 238–239, 240f
  • Trade Act (1974), 165
  • Trade Expansion Act (1962), 165
  • Trade, job creation/wage growth (belief), 220f
  • Trade wars
    • decline, reasons, 125–131
    • sustainability, 122–123
  • Trading with the Enemy Act (1917), 165
  • Transactionalism, 148
  • Triple Entente, creation, 132
  • Trump, Donald
    • antitrade preference, 136–137
    • budget deficit increase, 63
    • COVID hoax claim, 176
    • doctrine, 148–152
    • election problems, 13
    • foreign policy, multipolar understanding, 150
    • JCPOA exit, 228
    • threats, 167
    • trade perspective, 164–166
    • win, probability, 253f
    • World Island, impact, 151–152
  • Tsipras, Alexis, 120, 122, 241–242
  • Two-level game, 240f
  •  
  • Ukraine
    • GDP, 156f
    • Russia, attack, 153–159
  • Uncertainty band, 254f
  • Unipolarity, 10
  • United States
    • budget process, 167–168, 168f
    • China (Cold War), 122–123
    • China trade deficit, 239f
    • economic stimulus, 194–196
    • I-neck recovery, 196f
    • Japan, trade, 135f
    • reconciliation process, 169–170
    • recovery, 195f
    • Soviet Union (Cold War), 128
    • trade deficit concerns, 135
    • trade leverage, 238f
  •  
  • Value-add sphere imbalance, 156
  • von Bülow, Bernhard, 123–124
  • Voters, singled-peaked preferences, 83
  •  
  • Warren, Elizabeth, 86, 90
  • Washington Consensus, 8, 13
  • Washington Naval Treaty (1922), Japan withdrawal, 133–134
  • Weber, Eugen, 109
  • Williams, E.E., 131
  • World Island (Mackinder), 147, 151
  • World War II, market impact, 20, 21f
  • World wars, economic constraints, 131–137
  •  
  • Xiaoping, Deng, 85
  •  
  • Yanukovych, Viktor, 154
  • Yom Kippur War, 8, 20, 21f
  • Yugoslavia
    • OECD economic survey, 105
    • problems, 103–106
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