-
- Academics, interaction (usefulness), 66
- Ad hocery, 72–73
- Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), 170
- support, material constraint, 33f
- Trump/Republican repeal efforts, 32, 59
- Ahmadinejad, Mahmoud, 36
- Allison, Graham, 124
- Al-Qaeda, 177–178
- American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), bipartisanship (absence), 87–88
- American supremacy, unipolar moment, 128
- Ancient Greece, power dynamics, 123–125
- Anglo-Saxon laissez-faire consensus, end, 13
- Appropriations bill, production, 167–168
- Arab Spring, 37, 48, 248
- Argentina
- ideological bias, impact, 58–59
- misery index, 57, 58f, 109
- promise, performance (contrast), 56f
- structural reforms/shock therapy, 55–56
- Around the curve net assessment, 205–206
- Asian Tigers
- gross fixed capital formation, GDP percentage, 212f
- productivity performance, 219f
-
- Batson, Daniel, 34
- Bayesian prior (Bayesian probability), 206–208, 208f
- BCA reports, usage, 22–23
- Berlin Wall, fall, 4
- Biden, Joe, 86–87, 167, 170
- Bipolarity, 10
- Bipolar world, trade war, 127f
- Black Swans, 20, 22, 24, 58
- Blair, Tony, 85
- Bolsonaro, Jair, 57, 59, 255–257
- Brazil, positive carry, 257f
- Bregret, constraint, 79, 79f
- Bremmer, Ian, 144
- Brexit
- analysis, 207
- probability, 253f
- referendum, 81
- Brexit Party, rise, 52–54
- Budget deficits (expansion)
- Republican presidents, impact, 60f
- Tea Party, impact, 63f
- Buenos Aires Consensus, 13, 84f, 92f, 175
- global shift, 95–96, 198
- long-term predictions, 86–93
- Bush, George H.W., 84, 127, 169
- hegemonic stability, 9–10
- Bush, George W., 127, 160, 169
- Byrd rule, 169, 171
-
- Cameron, David, 86
- Capitalism, decomposition, 28, 254–258
- Center-right economic policies, adoption, 85
- Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
- intelligence analysis manual, 72
- spies, impact, 64–65
- China
- bad deals, 126
- challenger status, 125–126
- coastal provinces, democracy (shift), 98f
- expansionism, limits, 101
- free-market reforms, 210
- GDP per capita, 99–100
- median voter, presence (question), 93–101
- middle class, 97f
- MVT, application (absence), 98–99
- policies, rethinking, 94
- political risk, real estate (relationship), 96
- reform insurance, 223
- short-term competition, absence, 98
- structural reforms, 95–96, 100
- tolerance curves, 238, 240f
- United States (Cold War), 122–123
- Chinese Communist Party (CCP), 94, 98
- leadership, connections, 100
- Chirac, Jacques, 75
- Christian Social Union (CSU), 115–116
- Clinton, Bill, 127
- hegemonic stability, 9–10
- pro-globalization perspective, 84
- “Coalition of the Radical Left” (SYRIZA), 120, 241
- Competing hypotheses analysis, 31
- Conditional probability, 230–233
- Confirmation bias, impact, 140
- Congressional Budget Act (1974), 167
- Connected players, 51–55
- Constitutional constraints, 161, 173
- Constraint method, time (impact), 196–199
- Constraint model, 41–42
- Constraints, 262f
- diagnosticity, 29–32
- framework, 19, 38–39
- objective distance, 43
- policymakers, relationships, 138–140
- Corbyn, Jeremy, 86
- Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economy Security (CARES) Act, 88, 90
- Corporate profits, 29, 30f
- Corporate tax cuts, 60, 170–171
- COVID-19 pandemic, 50, 140–141, 174–175, 261
- ageism, 182f
- Chinese approach, 181
- constraints, 179
- duration, 184f
- hospitalization/fatality rates, 183f
- impact, 13, 24, 43, 64, 183f, 217
- material constraints, contrast, 178–186
- non-linearity, 186–193
- recession, 90, 93
- reforms, 96
- stimulus, impact, 63
- Trump hoax claim, 176
- Crimean Peninsula, Russian annexation, 11, 37, 152–159
- Cultural Revolution (China), 94
- Cummings, Dominic, 52
- Curve-flattening approach/policies, 179, 181, 207, 261
- Cyclical net assessment, 204–206
-
- Darley, John, 34
- Das Kapital (Marx), 27–28
- Data, quality (importance), 31
- Debt Supercycle, 24
- Deglobalization, reversal (difficulty), 11
- Democracy
- effectiveness, measurement, 99
- support, wealth (impact), 99f
- Democratic socialism, 87
- Democratization, Third Wave, 7, 78
- Depression, effects, 185–186
- Desk, term (usage), 47
- Deutschmark, German dilution, 111f
- Developed world, middle class stagnation, 12f
- Diagnosticity, 29–32, 38–39
- Dirigisme, 9, 174, 259
- Dirigiste, 13, 85, 90
- Discrete event, net assessment, 204–206
- Disequilibrium, multipolarity (impact), 11f
- Donbas War, 152–153
- Draghi, Mario, 163–164
-
- Economic Consequences of the Peace, The (Keynes), 6
- Economic constraints, 137–141
- Economic context
- political capital measurement factor, 77
- political constraint, 80
- Economy, market (relationship), 103
- Emerging markets (EMs), 254
- balance-of-payments crisis, 103
- geopolitical/political risks, 17
- Entente Cordiale, 132
- Equities, churn, 93
- Euro Area
- Germany, relationship, 112f, 115f
- Greece exit, issues, 116–122
- sovereign debt crisis, 122
- Euro Area crisis, 106–109, 113–116, 137–138
- 10-year government bond yield, 108f
- assumptions/examination, 139f, 164
- rescue, 162–164, 244
- European Central Bank (ECB), 110, 163
- Italian debt purchase, 138
- monetary policy, acceptance, 139
- European Economic Community (EEC), dollar peg, 111
- European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), creation, 163
- European Recovery Fund, proposal, 114
- European Stability Mechanism (ESM), 163, 166
- European Union (EU), 111–116
- UK membership referendum, 247
- European Union (EU), country exit, 109
- Europe, Germany (relationship), 113f
- “Europe's Geopolitical Gambit” (Papic), 205
- Expert Political Judgment (Tetlock), 50, 71, 233
- Experts, interaction (usefulness), 66–67
-
- False experts, 47–51
- Ferguson, Niall, 6
- Fernández, Alberto, 58
- Fernández de Kirchner, Cristina, 58
- Fiduciary duty, outsourcing (impossibility), 65–67
- Finance constraints, 106, 107–108
- Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), FAS 157 amendment, 162
- Financial industry, weaknesses, 14–15
- Forecasters, knowledge base (problems), 138
- Forecasts, basis, 72
- Foreign domestic investment (FDI) (India), 213–217, 215f
- France
- Germany, relationship, 255f
- structural reforms, 252f
- Freedom Caucus, 61
- Friedman, George, 144
- Frontier markets (EMs), geopolitical/political risks, 17
- Frugal Four, opposition, 114
- Fulcrum constraint, 211–222
- Fundamental attribution error, 35
- Funnel, example, 55–59
- Funneling, 46–47
-
- Game theory, 235
- game of chicken, 242f, 243f
- player credibility, 237
- simplistic games, caution, 241–243
- two-level game, 240f
- General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (Keynes), 6
- Genex, problems, 4–5
- Geopolitical alpha, 245
- Geopolitical analysis, 16, 145, 260
- Geopolitical events
- market impact, 20, 21f
- timeline, 23–25
- Geopolitical forecasting, 204–206
- Geopolitical paradigm shifts, 10–12, 46
- Geopolitical risks, 224
- Geopolitical Strategy (Papic), 122
- Geopolitical theory, origins, 146–148
- Geopolitics, 142, 160
- constraint, 147–148
- economics, contrast, 122–123
- German Naval Laws (1898), 132
- German Question, 109–116
- Germany
- Allies, trade (increase), 133f, 134f
- deutschmark dilution, 111f
- economic dependence/constraint, 113–114
- economic reform, 112
- Euro Area, relationship, 112f, 115f
- Europe, relationship, 113f
- France, relationship, 255f
- rising German Euroscepticism, 114
- Russia, pipelines (relationship), 157f
- unification, 110
- Gertken, Matt, 164
- Global Financial Crisis, 198
- Globalization
- economic nationalism, contrast (Trump identification), 83–84
- persistence, difficulty, 11
- voter shift, 84
- Global momentum
- political capital measurement factor, 78
- political constraint, 81
- Goldilocks Era, 15
- cessation, 6–10, 18
- impact, 14
- Good Samaritan, story, 35
- Gorbachev, Mikhail, 104
- Great Depression, 23–24, 181
- Great Leap Forward, 94, 100
- Great Moderation, 15
- Great Power geopolitics, 145
- Great Recession (2008), 10–12, 24, 140, 162, 181
- deaths, Lancet study, 184
- Great Society, entitlement expansion, 24
- Greece
- crisis, game of chicken, 243f
- economic disagreements, 117f
- energy import, dependence, 119
- Euro Area exit, issues, 116–122, 120f, 140
- fiscal adjustments, 121f
- manufacturing, export percentage, 118
- mortality rate, increase, 185f
- power dynamics, 123–125
- tourism, GDP percentage, 119–120
- Grexit, 118
-
- Hard power, attainment, 146
- Hartz IV reforms, 112
- Hegel, Georg Wilhelm Friedrich, 28
- Hegemonic stability, 9–10
- Helicopter money, usage, 13
- Heuer, Jr., Richards J., 30–32
- History of the Peloponnesian War (Thucydides), 124
- Hold-me-back incidents, 41, 42
- House of Rothschild, The (Ferguson), 6
- Huntington, Samuel, 100
- Hussein, Saddam (regime collapse), 227
-
- Ideological bias, impact, 58–59
- Ideology, impact, 15
- Imperial overstretch, 125
- India
- corporations, overtaxation, 213
- COVID-19, impact, 217
- dropoff, 211f
- employment protection, strictness, 218f
- export stagnation/manufacturing collapse, 216f
- foreign direct investment (FDI), 213–217, 215f
- gross fixed capital formation, GDP percentage, 212f
- individuals, undertaxation, 212–213
- investment thesis, 210f
- marginal personal income tax rates, 214f
- mean reversion, 209–211
- national income share, inequality, 214f
- net assessment, 209, 222–225
- per-capita income, growth (deceleration), 221
- rural wages, performance, 221f
- taxes, increase, 213
- trade war insurance, 222
- underinvestment, fulcrum constraint, 211–218
- I-neck recovery (US), 196f
- Inequality, measurement, 89f
- Influence of Sea Power upon History, The (Mahan), 146
- Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, The (Smith), 6
- Insiders (US), 59–64
- Intelligence
- access, importance, 65–66
- intelligence-based political/geopolitical forecasting, limitations, 45–47
- methodology, 38
- model, weaknesses, 16–17
- Investing, 45–47
- Investment, fulcrum constraint (reasons), 218–222
- Iran
- avoidance, American opinion, 227f
- bombing, Israeli hawk desire, 36–37
- Iran-US conflict decision tree, 232f
- US detente, 230
- US-initiated war, constraints, 226–227
- Islamic State, 37, 176–178, 198
-
- Japan, US trade, 135f
- J curve, 74–75, 74f
- Jinping, Xi, 96, 131
- Johnson, Boris, 52–55
- ad-hoc method, application, 81
- bravado, reason, 53f
- political constraints, 79–81
- rhetoric, 54, 78–81
- Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)
- Trump exit, 228–229
- US deleverage, 226f
- US/Iran agreement, 225
- Jong-un, Kim, 35–36, 93
-
- Keating, Paul, 85
- Keynes, John Maynard, 6, 28, 137, 264
- Kindleberger, Charles, 9
- Krugman, Paul, 116
-
- Laffer, Arthur, 172
- Lagarde, Christine, 164
- Laissez-faire capitalism, voter shift, 85
- Laissez-faire economics, 9–12, 85, 133, 205
- Laissez-faire ideology, perspective, 15
- Laissez-faire orthodoxy, divergence, 87
- Leaders, honeymoon period, 76–77
- Legal constraints, 161, 173
- Legislative math
- political capital measurement factor, 77
- political constraint, 80
- Le Pen, Marine, 248–254, 259
- euro, popularity, 251f
- win, probability, 253f
- Libya, fighting, 48–49
- Lisbon Treaty, Article 125 (impact), 163–164
- López Obrador, Andres Manuel (AMLO), 255–257
-
- Maastricht Treaty, Article 104b (impact), 162–163
- Machiavelli, Niccolò, 26–27, 28, 72
- Mackinder, Halford, 146
- Macri, Mauricio, 55–59, 75
- Macroeconomics, constraints, 106, 107
- Macron, Emmanuel, 74, 114, 164, 251–252
- Made in Germany (Williams), 131
- Mahan, Alfred Thayer, 146
- Market constraints, 137–141
- Marković, Ante, 103–106
- Mark-to-market regulation (FAS 157), amendment, 162
- Marx, Karl, 27–29, 72
- Mass hysteria, example, 178
- Massie, Thomas, 88
- Material constraints, 40
- COVID-19, contrast, 178–186
- terrorism, contrast, 176–178
- Materialistic dialectic, 26–29, 38
- Material power, comparison, 74
- May, Theresa, 54, 80
- McCain, John, 32, 33
- Meadows, Mark, 61–62, 172
- Mean reversion, 209–211
- Median voter
- preference, 175
- public, relationship, 197
- Median voter theorem (MVT), 81–85
- danger, 83
- predictions, 88
- presence (China), 93–101
- usage, 83, 84f
- Mercantilism, 148
- Merkel, Angela, 114–116, 164, 242–243
- Mexico, positive carry, 257f
- Middle class
- goods inflation, 25f
- impact (China), 100–101
- measurement, 89f
- stagnation, 12f
- Middle East, war (net assessment), 225–233
- Middle-income trap, 95f
- Migration crisis, cessation, 250f
- Misery Index, 57, 58f, 109
- Mitterand, François ("110 Propositions for France"), 9
- Modi, Narendra, 209–217, 222–224
- Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact (1939), 151
- Multipolarity, 10, 11f, 129, 174
- Multipolar world
- economic constraints, 131–137
- instability, reasons, 129–130
- trade war, 130f
- US leadership problems, 136
- Murkowski, Lisa, 33
-
- Nationalism, 148–150
- Netanyahu, Benjamin, 36
- Net assessment, 203, 222–234
- Bayesian prior, 206–208
- types, 204–206
- Newsom, Gavin, 179
- New World Order, maintenance, 62
- Nisbett, Richard E., 34–35
- Nixon, Richard, 165–166
- No-deal Brexit, 81
- hysteria, 51f
- meaning, 51–55
-
- Obama, Barack, 59, 101, 149–150, 160
- Office of Net Assessment (ONA), DoD analysis, 203–204
- Oil shock/crisis (1973), 8, 24, 104
- Orange Revolution (2005), 153–154
-
- Parsley, Bayless, 47–49
- Pelosi, Nancy, 13
- Perestroika, 7
- Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (1996), 169
- Person and the Situation, The (Ross/Nisbett), 34
- Person, situation (contrast), 34–35
- Political capital, factors, 75–78
- Political constraints, 79–81, 99, 101–102
- Political consultant, differentiation, 46
- Political Order in Changing Societies (Huntington), 100
- Political paradigm shift, 5, 14, 46
- Political power, quantification (difficulty), 74
- Political science theory, 126, 135
- Politics, power study, 73–74
- Popularity
- political capital measurement factor, 75
- political constraint, 79
- Populist mentality, problems, 91
- Power, duration
- political capital measurement factor, 76–77
- political constraint, 80, 100
- Power, material balance, 237
- Preference model
- equation, 39–40
- example, 40–42
- Premature deindustrialization (Rodrik), 219–220
- Prince, The (Machiavelli), 26–27
- Prodi, Romano, 85
- Productivity-enhancing policies, policymaker pursuit, 74–75
- Proletariat revolution, Marx forecast, 29
- Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (Heuer, Jr.), 30
- Public support, regimes (consideration), 76f
- Putin, Vladimir, 37–38, 159, 242
- political capital, regaining, 75
-
- Quantitative easing (QE), 25
- Quant obsession, 14
-
- Rajoy, Mariano (political capital), 77
- Reagan, Ronald (tax reform rollback), 169
- Realism, political science theory (focus), 126
- Reconciliation process, 169–171
- Regimes, public support, 76f
- Regional contingency factor, 78
- Regulators, interaction (usefulness), 67
- Relative gain, 125–131
- Relative power, 237, 242
- Republicans
- budget deficit expansion, 60f
- profligacy, voter approval, 61f
- Revanchist regimes, US challenge, 8
- Revenue, COVID-19 (impact), 183f
- Revenue neutrality (Tea Party), 172
- Risk tolerance, 237
- Rodrik, Dani, 219–221
- Roosevelt, Theodore, 146
- Ross, Lee, 34–35
- Russia
- aggression, constraints, 157–159
- constraints, 152–159
- membership perks, 154
- value-add sphere imbalance, 157
- Ryan, Paul, 87, 88
-
- Sanders, Bernie, 86, 90
- Schröder, Gerhard, 85
- Second World War, market impact, 20, 21f
- Securities Market Program (SMP), Draghi usage, 163–164
- Self-selection, 14–15
- Short-term competition, absence (China), 98–99
- Silent majority, reforms, 250
- Sinn, Hans-Werner, 117
- Smith, Adam, 6
- “Snake in the tunnel” (EEC dollar peg), 111
- Snidal, Duncan, 126–128
- Socialism, 254–258
- Social mobility, measurement, 89f
- Social psychology, 34, 38, 39, 72
- Soros, George, 106
- Soviet Union
- collapse, 4, 7, 24, 93
- GDP-per-capita growth, problems, 95
- re-creation (Putin desire), 37–38
- US (Cold War), 128
- Special interest group support
- political capital measurement factor, 77–78
- political constraint, 80
- Special purpose vehicle (SPV), 163
- Statistical significance problem, 16–17
- Structural reform, J curve, 74f
- Supply-side revolution, Perestroika (impact), 8f
- Syrian Civil War, 37
-
- TARGET2 mechanism/imbalance, 122, 138
- Tax cut, Republican peddling, 172–173
- Tea Party, 171–173
- budget deficit increases, 63f
- rebellion, 59–61
- Technocrats, interaction (usefulness), 66–67
- Terrorism, material constraints (contrast), 176–178
- Tetlock, Philip, 50, 71–73, 233
- Thatcher, Margaret (neoliberal shock therapy), 9
- Thatcher-Reagan revolution, demand-side policies, 8, 24
- Third Way politics, 84f, 85
- Three Represents, theory (Zemin), 94, 101
- Thucydides Trap, 124–125
- Time constraints, 174
- Time in power
- political capital measurement factor, 76–77
- political constraint, 80, 99
- Tolerance curves (China), 238–239, 240f
- Trade Act (1974), 165
- Trade Expansion Act (1962), 165
- Trade, job creation/wage growth (belief), 220f
- Trade wars
- decline, reasons, 125–131
- sustainability, 122–123
- Trading with the Enemy Act (1917), 165
- Transactionalism, 148
- Triple Entente, creation, 132
- Trump, Donald
- antitrade preference, 136–137
- budget deficit increase, 63
- COVID hoax claim, 176
- doctrine, 148–152
- election problems, 13
- foreign policy, multipolar understanding, 150
- JCPOA exit, 228
- threats, 167
- trade perspective, 164–166
- win, probability, 253f
- World Island, impact, 151–152
- Tsipras, Alexis, 120, 122, 241–242
- Two-level game, 240f
-
- Ukraine
- Uncertainty band, 254f
- Unipolarity, 10
- United States
- budget process, 167–168, 168f
- China (Cold War), 122–123
- China trade deficit, 239f
- economic stimulus, 194–196
- I-neck recovery, 196f
- Japan, trade, 135f
- reconciliation process, 169–170
- recovery, 195f
- Soviet Union (Cold War), 128
- trade deficit concerns, 135
- trade leverage, 238f
-
- Value-add sphere imbalance, 156
- von Bülow, Bernhard, 123–124
- Voters, singled-peaked preferences, 83
-
- Warren, Elizabeth, 86, 90
- Washington Consensus, 8, 13
- Washington Naval Treaty (1922), Japan withdrawal, 133–134
- Weber, Eugen, 109
- Williams, E.E., 131
- World Island (Mackinder), 147, 151
- World War II, market impact, 20, 21f
- World wars, economic constraints, 131–137
-
- Yanukovych, Viktor, 154
- Yom Kippur War, 8, 20, 21f
- Yugoslavia
- OECD economic survey, 105
- problems, 103–106
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