CHAPTER 3

The Exponential Rise in Global Tourism Leading to Overtourism

Introduction

This chapter highlights how the exponential rise in global tourism is considered one of the main causes of overtourism. The unprecedented growth in international tourist arrivals over the last five decades combined with rapid growth in domestic tourism means that more people than ever before are traveling across the globe. The almost continuous growth in international tourism has led to demand challenges resulting in overtourism in an increasing number of destinations. Tourism went through an almost total global shutdown due to the coronavirus pandemic, something which would have been unimaginable at the beginning of 2020. However, as a number of vaccines became available in early 2021, travel is expected to gradually resume to previous levels with recovery anticipated to take around five years.

Fifty Years of Growth in International Tourism

After 50 years of more or less continuous growth tourism came to a sudden halt in March 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. International tourism started again slowly in July 2020, with the European Union (EU) keen to restart travel owing to its economic importance and to avoid a total collapse of the sector. However, this was on a phased basis with the European Commission highlighting the need for the sector to re-emerge as safer from a health perspective and more sustainable from an environmental perspective. Social distancing measures will inevitably require better destination management in locations prone to overtourism. As of December 2020, the majority of travel was either domestic or short-haul intraregional trips. However, newly identified COVID-19 strains resulted in more travel restrictions being introduced, with global mass vaccination leading to herd immunity considered the only realistic road to recovery for the travel and tourism sector.

The exponential growth in international tourist arrivals from around 25 million in 1950 to almost 1.5 billion in 2019 and forecast to increase to 1.8 billion by 2030, pales in comparison to the sheer size of domestic tourism, which is expected to reach 19 billion by the same year. While the overtourism debate tends to focus on international tourism, it is important to recognize that the scale of domestic tourism means that it remains the leading form of tourism and has the potential to play a fundamental role in regional and local economic growth and development.

Until recently, tourism was considered a luxury reserved for the select few who could afford both the time and money to travel. Increased leisure time, higher incomes, and global mass mobility have led to more people than ever being able to travel. Enhanced air connectivity, the expansion of accommodation, the growth in all-inclusive packages, and other forms of relatively affordable leisure travel have exponentially increased the opportunity to travel for leisure purposes. Today, tourism is no longer reserved for the few, but is considered a right for an ever-increasing number of people. Furthermore, people are taking more frequent and shorter breaks including city breaks and weekend breaks often due to the availability of cheap flights and affordable accommodation. The shorter length of stay means that people tend to pack it all in, in order to see all the key attractions in the shortest possible time leading to a concentration of tourist flows both in terms of time and space. The availability of digital maps, social media, and peer-to-peer review sites makes it easy to navigate and decide which “must see” attractions to visit.

This phenomenal story of growth has resulted in tourism being recognized as one of the fastest growing and most important economic sectors in the world. In 2019, the WTTC estimated that the sector contributed nearly USD8.9 trillion to the global economy equating to 10.3 percent of global GDP. In the same year, the travel and tourism sector was responsible for circa 330 million jobs or one in ten jobs around the world. Furthermore, WTTC statistics show that the travel and tourism sector outpaced global growth for the years 2009 to 2019 (Travel & Tourism Economic Impact | World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) 2021).

Figure 3.1 World tourism arrivals (1980 to 2018))

Source: UNWTO 2020

The above chart shows the evolution in international tourist arrivals from 1980 to 2018 by region (see Figure 3.1).

It is evident from Figure 3.1, that Asia and the Pacific and Europe have seen the largest increases in absolute international tourist arrivals since 1980. This led to the occurrence of overtourism in an increasing number of places around the world, especially in some of the world’s honeypot sites ranging from Venice in Italy to Angkor Wat in Cambodia.

Typically, overtourism occurs when the ratio between tourists and locals reaches a pinch point and the destination becomes saturated. In essence, a destination becomes too popular which in turn leads to its decline. The level at which a destination becomes saturated and the local host population starts to feel that the quality of life is impacted negatively is largely based on social perception and will vary from destination to destination, but it is currently the most prevalent in mature European destinations.

Current Trends in International Tourism

Destinations worldwide received almost 1.5 billion international tourist arrivals in 2019, up 3.6 percent on the previous year according to the UNWTO. 2019 was another year of strong growth, although, slower compared to the exceptional rates of 2017 (+6 percent) and 2018 (+6 percent). In 2019, demand was slower mainly in advanced economies and particularly in Europe. All regions enjoyed an increase in arrivals. The Middle East (+8 percent) led growth, followed by Asia and the Pacific (+5 percent). International arrivals in Europe and Africa (both +4 percent) increased in line with the world average, while the Americas saw growth of 2 percent. As per the main source markets, France reported the strongest increase in international tourism expenditure among the top ten markets, while the United States led in absolute terms (UNWTO Tourism Dashboard | UNWTO 2020).

Based on recent trends (i.e., prior to the coronavirus pandemic), economic prospects and the UNWTO Confidence Index, the UNWTO was forecasting growth of 3 to 4 percent in international tourist arrivals worldwide in 2020. This has since been adjusted downward in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. According the UNWTO international arrivals fell by more than 70 percent during the first ten months of 2020, which translated into a loss of USD935 billion in export revenues, which was ten times the loss resulting from the 2009 global financial crisis (Tourism Back to 1990 Levels as Arrivals Fall by More than 70 percent, 2021). Putting this into context, the UNWTO noted that in 2009, on the back of the global economic crisis, international tourist arrivals declined by 4 percent, while the SARS outbreak led to a decline of just 0.4 percent in 2003. These numbers are based on the latest developments as the global community faces up to an unprecedented social and economic challenge and thus should be interpreted with caution in view of the extreme uncertain nature of the coronavirus crisis.

Rapid Growth in Tourism Exposing Inadequate Destination Management

According to the OECD, continued growth in international tourist arrivals has raised important questions as to how best to manage growth to benefit people, places, and businesses. The over-riding issue for governments, and increasingly society, is to better look after the assets on which tourism depends. This is relevant to all destinations, but is a particularly pressing issue in those experiencing overtourism where significant investment may be required to preserve and protect the natural and cultural heritage assets as well as to develop visitor-related infrastructure (OECD Tourism Trends and Policies 2020 | en | OECD 2020).

Pavia Rosati, who founded the travel site Fathom, stated that (Froelich 2020):

During the height of travel restrictions and lockdowns associated with the coronavirus pandemic, the canals of Venice became clear for the first time in centuries with dolphins and swans returning, due to the absence of the steady stream of cruise ships. But the local people working in tourism, who were already suffering from the acqua alta flooding in November 2019, suffered the financial repercussions of COVID-19, which have reminded many how vital tourism is to the economy. On one hand, local residents had a much-needed break from overtourism and from the reality of being a living museum. On the other hand, the Sunday Times reported that as of mid-August 2020 the continuing lack of cruise ships had a detrimental impact on the livelihoods of those whose jobs depend on the 30 cruise operators usually based at the city’s maritime terminal. This highlights the contradiction between local residents with no vested interest in tourism and those whose livelihoods depends on it (Conradi 2020).

Prior to the coronavirus pandemic overtourism together with the climate emergency had become major challenges facing the tourism industry, albeit these are topics that the industry had been aware of for at least a few decades. The concept of a destination’s carrying capacity was first raised in the 1980s and later defined by the UNTWO as “the maximum number of people that may visit a tourist destination at the same time, without causing destruction of the physical, economic, socio-cultural environment and an unacceptable decrease in the quality of visitors’ satisfaction” (Risks of Saturation of Tourist Carrying Capacity Overload in Holiday Destinations (English version | World Tourism Organization 1983). However, this definition is not as comprehensive as the following: “the level of human activity an area can accommodate without the area deteriorating, the resident community being adversely affected or the quality of visitors’ experience declining” (Hawkins and Middleton 1998). Each destination will have an individual carrying capacity in terms of how many visitors it can handle in order to avoid overtourism. This will depend on its characteristics, be it an urban or rural location as well as the size of the local host population for example. In the context of overtourism, the social and psychological carrying capacity is most relevant as this is a good indicator of the local host population and community’s perception of overcrowding and congestion caused by tourism. Key to understanding the social and psychological carrying capacity of any destination is engaging with the local host population and community on a regular basis so that measures can be taken to avoid overtourism from occurring. It is also important to bear in mind that overtourism often occurs in densely populated and heavily congested urban spaces with growing populations and housing shortages, which may be exacerbated by the growth in tourism. It is clear that understanding a destination’s carrying capacity is a complex issue, especially in urban areas, based on the social, psychological, environmental, and economic factors that require regular monitoring.

While the short-term outlook for tourism is extremely uncertain, the industry is likely to continue growing in the long term. At present, the international tourism landscape is facing an unforeseen existential challenge and this together with the prevalent political, environmental, and digital trends will require destinations to consider the implications in order to inform future tourism policy. Early indications suggested that one of the likely short-term outcomes of the coronavirus pandemic was growth in domestic tourism as local lockdowns were lifted gradually. People visited destinations closer to home that were considered to be safe, hygienic, and clean without facing the risk of having to quarantine upon their return from abroad.

Key Takeaways