In the new business development discipline, megatrends and subtrends are of crucial importance because of their potential effects on business strategy and the success of projects. Even though one has no control over them, how a business gets ahead of and adapts to them makes a difference. Hence, analysis of megatrends and their implications are a vital element of a sponsor company's strategic, financing, and business plans. What is more important than knowing which ones impact a business is what one does with that information to take advantage or avoid megatrends. Once their impacts are well understood by all stakeholders, they are used in decision making across all sponsor company organizations and in enhancing stakeholder cooperation.

Figure 15.1 shows trend components and illustrates that the assessment of trends first involves identification, then analysis of megatrends, subtrends, and PESTLED trend effects. To be of value, it also involves trend response planning. The term megatrend was popularized by John Naisbitt (1982), defined megatrends as global, broad impact, sustained forces of change that affect industries, economies, societies and cultures, and peoples' lives. The effects of megatrends are permanent and shape the business environment, competition, and the future of the world. Subtends on the other hand, are prevailing tendencies, movements, or progressions within or outside megatrends that persist over a period of time. Trends are different than fads in that trends are bottom–up determining actions, whereas fads are top–down phenomena of limited lifespan. Trends are also different than predictions, which are forecasts, opinions, projections, or extrapolations from trends and the two should not be confused.

Like project risks, the determination and evaluation of relevant global‐trend impacts on a project are done properly in the early development stage of new projects and investment opportunities. An extension of this effort is the assessment of subtrends impacting the prospective investment country and the industry of the contemplated investment. For project financing purposes, however, it is as important to understand how trends and subtrends affect the project company and different project stakeholders as well. Namely, the sponsors and potential investors involved, the participating host government authority involved, the infrastructure construction industry, and the project finance industry participants. This understanding is important because trends:

1. Define to a significant degree the competitive environment and how doing business is changing
2. Provide insights on why and how project company output or consumer and user tastes are changing
3. Give indications of potential opportunities and threats currently and in the future
4. Help develop reasonable assumptions and scenarios and improve the project team's project evaluation ability and reliability of cost and revenue forecasts
5. Prepare the project company to realize the benefit or avoid the threat of their realization and prepare for appropriate responses
6. Trend analysis is a tool for critical thinking and strategic, scenario development, and effective new business development planning

Our discussion of megatrends and subtrends is of a cursory nature and it is partly based on discussions with clients, project consultants and advisors, and benchmarking study participants. Section 15.1 presents relevant trends to project finance, while Section 15.2 discusses the nature and origin of trends affecting project stakeholders and characteristics of trends impacting projects. Section 15.3 enumerates the demographic trends expected to continue into the future, while Section 15.4 highlights trends impacting technology and the infrastructure industry.

Trends that impact governments and their reaction to them are presented in Section 15.5, while trends that impact sponsors and debt and equity investors are discussed in Section 15.6. Trends impacting funding sources and financing of infrastructure projects and financial engineering are addressed in Section 15.7. Lastly, Section15.8 addresses the process and resources used to identify and analyze relevant trends and assess potential impacts. It also sketches out how one may take advantage of trends.

15.1 MAJOR RELEVANT MEGATRENDS

The megatrends considered here are twenty years out, generally applicable to all types of infrastructure projects, well accepted and known, have global effects across infrastructure and project finance industries. They include the following:

1. The rise of the 7 Emerging (7E) countries, which are Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia, Mexico, and Turkey (PWC, 2014)
2. Resource scarcity drives investment to projects focused on securing resources and economic development and less to projects to meet pressing health and social needs (KPMG, 2015)
3. Developers, sponsors, financiers, EPC contractors, and insures are going global (KPMG, 2015)
4. The development of smart cities to create substantial investment and business opportunities (KPMG, 2015)
5. Increased supply of infrastructure projects due to increased privatizations of government assets all over the world to meet budgetary or social needs (KPMG, 2015)
6. For the next 10 or so years, the emerging Asian countries (China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) will drive global infrastructure spending (KPMG, 2015)
7. Recognition of climate change around the globe and its causes will exacerbate resource scarcities, especially water, food, and energy. However, total food production has been estimated to grow significantly between 2010 and 2030 (Frost and Sullivan presentation)

The US National Intelligence Council (NIC) is an expert, reliable, and accurate source of global megatrend identification. In its 2010 assessment, which is still operating today, it considered the following megatrends as most impactful:

1. A trend towards a more closely knit and more complex international business system
2. Transfer of wealth and political influence from the West to the East continues into the foreseeable future
3. Scarcity of resources gives rise to geopolitical rivalries and the potential for increased conflict is present due to competition for food, water, and energy
4. New geopolitical strategic investors are emerging, such as national oil companies and Chinese resource extraction companies investing in infrastructure projects outside their countries
5. Terrorism and conflict will be major concerns as geostrategic risks rise and produce uncertainty
6. In response to wider access to lethal technologies and terrorism, a rise in homeland security and cybersecurity spending takes place and will continue in the future
7. Nongovernment organizations increase their international presence, but not with significant changes in their impact
8. The individual empowerment trend continues along with changing consumer tastes and the growth of consumers in emerging countries with ability to pay
9. The role of the US dollar in international transactions declines and the transition to a new international system has new risks
10. Dissimilar trends in aging populations between countries and within regions continue and geopolitical rivalries cause more disruptions than technological changes
11. Development of disruptive technologies, especially information technologies, affect all aspects of people's lives
12. Urbanization and the creation of megacities and megaregions that focus on urban mobility

15.2 MEGATREND SOURCES AND CHARACTERISTICS

Megatrends originate from good ideas, basic necessity factors, and innovation. In order to be sustainable, they also have reinforcement from the subtrends they generate and from the impact they have. Trends are developed from dynamic interactions with political, economic, societal, technological, legal, educational, and demographic factors. Changes in political and military power can trigger the development of trends that can be localized or broad and so can changes in economic systems. Legal and regulatory changes can set in motion trends affecting national economies, industries, and business models. Also, education and demographic changes can start the creation of trends that could impact the entire economy of a country for years to come.

Besides technological disruptions, the causes of megatrends and subtrends are associated with the following elements that underlie their development. In summary form, they are:

1. Unmet social needs, such as housing, health care facilities, schools, water treatment plants, etc.
2. Geopolitical, strategic, and military power shifts
3. Aging populations and increased urbanization around the world
4. Shortages of natural resources, the most important being water, food, and energy
5. New technology introductions and revolutionary product and service introductions
6. Governments reprioritizing economic development and growth plans
7. Changing consumer needs and tastes brought about by globalization

Megatrends are universal in nature; that is, they affect people's lives around the globe in varying degrees but have similar characteristics, the most important being:

1. They are closely interconnected and feedback effects back and forth between them reinforce each other
2. They produce conditions for the creation of new opportunities and innovation and also potentially adverse effects
3. Even though they are global, the impacts of megatrends are realized with different lags and impacts in different countries
4. Factors underlying megatrends are constantly changing and affect the direction, impact, and speed of trends

The effects of megatrends and subtrends on infrastructure projects can vary significantly across countries, industries, sectors and projects. However, their impact is evident in the following areas:

1. Engineering and design of plants and facilities and project specifications affecting costs
2. The models and structures used in project development
3. Bidding and procurement frameworks and systems
4. Project logistics and delivery to affect greater efficiencies
5. Project risks and opportunities that need to be well understood
6. Skills and experience to take advantage of them and create synergies or avoid them or minimize their impact
7. Increased need for additional knowledge, experience, and competencies in project development and financing
8. Development and funding of infrastructure projects, sources of funds, and instruments used

Given these trend characteristics, some basic questions that governments and sponsors need to answer in order to meet the challenges of and benefit by them include the following:

1. What knowledge, information, and skills and competencies are required to create efficient project bids and successful projects for all stakeholders?
2. How do sponsors cooperate with governments and other customers to ride trends and benefit both sides?
3. How can projects be built and financed smarter and more efficiently to obtain a competitive advantage under the effect of trends?
4. How can disruptive technologies be channeled to address urban transportation problems and water, energy, and food shortages?
5. What happens if sponsors, developers, technology and equipment providers, and governments do not meet the challenges of megatrends and subtrends?

15.3 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

There is general agreement that demographic trends are a determining factor of the demand for infrastructure projects around the world. The National Intelligence Council (2012) studied the source of trends and their implications. These trends, which have been operative for a number of years, are expected to continue into the future:

1. An unprecedented and widespread aging in developed countries that puts pressures for increased social infrastructure projects
2. The growth of the global middle class around the world will maintain momentum
3. The growth of Muslim population will remain greater than other backgrounds
4. Population increase trends in China and India are lasting into the foreseeable future and these countries will achieve parity with the United States in human capital and science
5. Population decline trends present in sub‐Saharan Africa, Russia, Eastern Europe, and Japan will persist
6. High immigration rates to the United States, Canada, and Australia continue due to demand for highly qualified professionals and increased population displacements
7. Asia, Africa, and Latin America will account for all the global population growth in the next 20 years
8. Ongoing urbanization by 2025 will increase the global urban population to around 57% and will drive water, transportation, and energy infrastructure projects
9. Social infrastructure spending will be determined by demographic shifts and by trends in education, health, and young and old population changes
10. Increased constraints on public finances are taking place due to aging populations and physical and cyberspace security concerns

The demographic trend impacts come primarily from three sources: The increased needs for basic needs of water and food; medical facilities and services; and public elder‐care facilities and nursing homes. These trends, in turn, exert increased pressures on emerging and developing country government budgets to shift priorities away from other infrastructure projects. To support economic growth, however, governments are required to increase spending on educational facilities and urbanization project needs. The impacts of demographic trends are fairly easily forecasted and translated into needs governments consider in long‐range planning. This will increase investment in social infrastructure projects and funding, primarily through the use of PPP models. However, the impact of trends on development infrastructure cannot be as easily assessed and investments in this area are primarily driven by economic growth needs.

15.4 TECHNOLOGY AND INDUSTRY TRENDS

Since the financial crisis of 2008, a tendency is observed towards increased importance and emphasis on rehabilitation of existing infrastructure as opposed to greenfield projects in countries with constrained government budgets and growth of the construction industry in emerging markets. The focus shifts to cities and urban area infrastructure needs and from the ability to fund projects to cost reduction of investment needs. At the same time, there is process innovation taking place in the preparation of project sites, logistics, and the use of new technologies, such as sophisticated logistics and project management software and applications of 3D printing that enhance the efficiency of the infrastructure‐construction industry.

Organizational and contractual innovations are taking place and expected to continue, such as computerized inventory control, along with increased use of advanced equipment, tools, and materials, and development of super‐supply chains. Further, there is increased attention paid to life‐cycle infrastructure risk management that reduces project failures. Also, an important trend that is becoming apparent is one that links procurement, contracting, and project management models with asset operations.

Technology trends are probably the most impactful on the infrastructure industry and include new approaches to solving urbanization problems, and providing improved services and quality of life for people. In addition to the well‐known trends in innovation and introduction of new information technology services, futurists like Thomas Fray (2015), talk about trends that will dramatically affect the development of infrastructure projects and construction, such as:

1. A transition of advanced countries to low‐carbon economies around the world
2. New infrastructure models being used as the pace of new technologies speeds up
3. Driverless cars will become common in a few years and driverless highways require new road construction methods and integration with technology
4. “Space transportation on Earth,” i.e. tube‐transportation networks, will change the approach the transport industry by solving road congestion and construction problems
5. Atmospheric water harvesters installed in places where droughts are common will solve many of their water crises
6. Efficient, space‐based power stations will be competing with existing terrestrial power plans to meet energy needs
7. Drone‐delivery networks to speed up deliveries and make remote areas easier to deliver packages efficiently
8. High power, efficient mass‐energy storage facilities and batteries are being developed to support powering new devices
9. Trillion‐sensor infrastructure is emerging, which includes analytics, additive manufacturing, energy storage, ultra‐low power wireless, network innovation, and operating systems
10. Disruptive new technologies including artificial intelligence, machine learning, augmented reality, the internet of things, etc.
11. New investment opportunities emerging in small biomass to energy projects in rural areas (KPMG, 2015)

Government budget constraints and higher sponsor project‐development costs are forcing innovation and the introduction of new technologies to make projects and the infrastructure industry more efficient. Governments and the infrastructure industry are using new technologies and innovations in organizations, contracts and procurement, risk management, and project management. However, solutions to major urbanization‐infrastructure needs involve additional new and futuristic technology introductions, costs, and challenges. Along with these solutions to infrastructure needs, come increased physical and cybersecurity challenges that create opportunities to address them effectively.

15.5 TRENDS IMPACTING THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR

Infrastructure project financing is impacted by trends observed in the public sector due to responses by governments and their attempt to get value for money invested. The following are trends observed in this area, but note that these trends may be more country specific and not of uniform impacts in every country:

1. Economic infrastructure gets higher priority than social infrastructure projects because spending on the former stimulates economic growth more that projects in the latter
2. There is an increasing use of PPP models and cofunding of infrastructure projects while governments are using better procurement approaches to ensure value for money
3. Governments are trying to reconcile the need for sound long‐range planning with short‐term political considerations and priorities
4. There is a trend towards decentralization and increased local public sector involvement in infrastructure projects
5. Governments use increased infrastructure spending to stimulate their economies because their balance sheets are becoming more constrained (Deloitte, 2013)
6. Government budgetary pressures result in projects being awarded on the basis of meeting requirements for local materials purchases, host country production and job creation, in addition to increased tax revenues
7. Governments are introducing policy reforms to attract investors in infrastructure projects and are making equity contributions towards the end of project construction to ensure that private investors stay in the project (Deloitte, 2014)
8. Development‐oriented governments are taking steps to increase private investments in infrastructure through:
   1. Market reforms in several infrastructure industries
   2. Creating long‐range plans for these sectors and separating infrastructure choices from political decisions
   3. Striving to achieve better infrastructure asset performance
   4. Paying attention to cities and focusing on urban population mobility (KPMG, 2015)
9. Governments are becoming more experienced with project financing techniques and requirements and are making the infrastructure sector more effective by reforming market structures and regulatory regimes of utilities (KPMG, 2015)
10. The shift of infrastructure project development from the public to the private sector is taking place along the transfer of infrastructure costs from taxpayers to consumers or users of infrastructure project services (KPMG, 2015)

The impact of demographic trends causes a shift to social infrastructure projects that is counterbalanced by the effect of government emphasizing projects supporting development and economic growth. Overall, the positive impacts of government impacting trends are balanced in favor of economic growth projects. Budgetary constraints are also causing governments to introduce reforms to attract infrastructure investments that promote needed economic growth and a shift from public to PPP projects that yield value for money spent. A positive impact of budgetary constraints is that governments are becoming more experienced in project finance techniques and shifting infrastructure costs from taxpayers to users.

15.6 TRENDS IMPACTING SPONSORS AND INVESTORS

All trends mentioned so far are affecting sponsors and investors directly or indirectly, but the following are trends generated by factors within these agents that have a direct impact on their mode of operations:

1. Sponsors, developers, and suppliers are looking for ways to further develop project financing skills and capabilities to obtain a competitive advantage in this area
2. Sponsors recognize the need to educate customers in project financing and evaluation of proposals and are developing programs to help public‐sector customers
3. Project investors are careful to work within the host country's legal system and avoid corruption situations while they slowly obtain local knowledge, vet local partners, and learn the local culture and how to work with local institutions
4. Sponsors and investors increasingly look beyond contracts for risk management; that is, good contracts in form and flexible in the reality of enforcing them (Woodhouse, 2005)
5. The project due diligence is becoming more critical in effective risk management
6. As megaprojects become common, project participants become increasingly concerned about their complexity rendering them undeliverable or unprofitable
7. An investor preference and focus is emerging for investing in areas of low inflation, minimum systemic risk, and where financial risks are well managed

One of the helpful impacts of trends on sponsors and other investors in infrastructure projects is the transfer of project finance knowledge to governments and the restructuring of legal and regulatory regimes. The latter is also influenced by the intervention of official funding sources that require changes in order to reduce project risks and make them financeable. These effects make project development and financing easier to achieve effectively. Because governments look for effective and flexible contracts, the role of the due diligence is expanded to ensure more effective risk management. While investors look for low‐risk projects, infrastructure projects are becoming more complex and costly to develop which, in turn, give incentives to sponsors to introduce innovations to make projects economically viable and they do.

15.7 TRENDS IMPACTING FUNDING SOURCES AND FINANCING

Official, government, and private sources of funding are affected directly by megatrends and trends in the areas discussed earlier. Gaps in funding for urgently needed economic development and social infrastructure projects are causing innovations in order to close those gaps. So, in addition to new players coming into the infrastructure financing market, new models of financing are introduced, such as regulated asset finance, project output‐based aid, social impact bonds, and tax increment finance. The trends impacting funding sources and project financing include:

1. Overlooked markets, such as natural resource‐rich Africa and other underdeveloped countries, are now considered for infrastructure investment opportunities
2. Private and public customers are becoming more experienced in project financing techniques (NIC, 2012)
3. China will outbid the World Bank with direct aid and foreign assistance to resource rich countries (NIC, 2012)
4. China is supporting building infrastructure around their trade corridors through funding by the Asian Infrastructure Bank, the China Development Bank, and China Exim Bank
5. The role of the US dollar in international transactions will diminish over time (NIC, 2012)
6. New models of project finance such as increased use of tax increment finance, social impact bonds, output based aid, and regulated asset finance with focus on inflation protection projects with minimal risks (Yescombe, 2014)
7. Increased importance of PPI and non‐traditional funding sources (Brooking Institution, 2015) and increased crowdsource capital (World Bank, 2013)
8. Upward trend in global infrastructure fundraising for private equity investments
9. Need for transparency rises up the agenda (KPMG, 2013)
10. Political and regulatory risks rise up the agenda (KPMG, 2015)
11. Increased use of sovereign wealth funds and other state investment vehicles in China and the Gulf States (NIC, 2008)
12. New geopolitical investors such as China providing economic assistance to African countries and investing in petroleum and mineral resource extraction projects
13. Domestic lenders are becoming increasingly more sophisticated and provide a higher share of lending to infrastructure projects
14. Equity investment flow is matched by the development of the infrastructure bond market and the percentage of project bonds to loans is increasing

Creation of the New Development Bank and the Contingency Reserve Arrangement by the BRICS countries, the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the China Africa Development Fund, and the Silk Road Fund are ample evidence of trends to more infrastructure funding sources sponsored or led by Chinese institutions. These changes are creating trends that have global impacts, and other financing trends that affect sponsors and governments include:

1. Growth of project finance deals due to privatization of infrastructure assets and the need to increase productivity and stimulate economic growth
2. Globalization of the infrastructure fund market is increasing as more governments are privatizing infrastructure assets (Della Goce and Gatti, 2014/1)
3. ECAs and development finance institutions continue to be a driving force in the global project finance industry, but the role of multilaterals and development banks is shifting
4. Transactions are taking more time, have higher costs, and rely more on official funding (Deloitte, 2013)
5. Less long‐term financing is coming from banks due to higher Basel IV reserve requirements and banks now cooperate with institutional investors to channel debt funds to infrastructure projects
6. Increased investment coming from investors such as equity funds and new private equity funds
7. Continued market growth for infrastructure projects through project pooling and the development of investment funds
8. Increased role of Islamic finance for large‐scale projects in the Middle East and other Islamic countries
9. Rating companies conduct due diligence and project debt is priced according to the rating of the transaction
10. Increased focus on the balance of budgetary priorities and social project spending will be determined by a country's economic growth
11. Increased application of project finance in healthcare facilities, pharmaceuticals, real estate, and other industry projects

In summary, trends impacting funding sources and project financing show that the role of China will lead development of infrastructure projects not only in underdeveloped countries, but around the world. After China, Islamic financing will expand its influence in funding projects and this creates conditions for other sources of funding to increase their cooperation and pooling of funds. Because of the impacts of trends on project financing and other areas, projects are becoming more complex, take longer to complete, and involve higher costs. At the same time, project finance is increasingly being used to fund projects beyond infrastructure, such as in real estate, pharmaceuticals, and other industries. Also, Islamic financing and pension and sovereign wealth funds will play a significant role in the globalization of the infrastructure fund market.

15.8 ANALYSIS OF TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT

The purpose of identifying and assessing trends is to evaluate their impacts on the business and to plan to take advantage of them or minimize adverse impacts. The different elements and the process of identifying trends and their impacts affecting the project company's operations are illustrated in Figure 15.8.1. The process begins with identifying megatrends, subtrends, and PESTLED trends and determining which ones and to what extent they are relevant for a particular country and industry. At this junction, it is important to ensure that fads are separated from trends and determining how the relevant trends are likely to impact the industry the project company is in. This step is helpful in assessing trend effects on the industry structure and likely changes in the operating environment's competitive forces.

Once the effects of trends affecting the industry are well understood, the process examines how industry‐relevant trends will affect the project company's future and determine the magnitude of impacts on its financial performance over its lifetime. The evaluation of trends impacting the project company specifically includes an assessment of trend effects on future technology; host country legal and regulatory changes; unmet customer/user needs and changes in preferences; and potential threats to the project company's success. While the process of identifying relevant trends is fairly straightforward, the quantification of their impacts requires a thorough analysis of analogs from competitors and other industries, and the evaluation and input of industry experts.

The identification of trends and their impacts on project finance deals is crucial because of project characteristics, sizable investment requirements, and required quality of financial projections to make projects financeable. The quantification of trend impacts requires building up strong competitive analysis competencies that support the sponsor organization's strategic planning, business development, and PFO efforts. This involves activities such as:

1. Attending industry conferences and networking with others who are knowledgeable in identifying trends and have experience in quantifying their effects
2. Identifying industry leaders and watching actions of those industry leaders in response to trends impacting them
3. Doing host country market research and assessing competitor plans and initiatives there and in similar countries
4. Obtaining the views and opinions of industry experts and consultants and getting the insights of industry analysts
5. Reading industry reports and industry analyst commentaries and assessments about trends
6. Obtaining and evaluating opinions and predictions of futurists and analyzing their reports, academic articles, and papers on trends and impacts on different industries
7. Monitoring industry reports and checking trade magazines, such as the D&B First Research Industry Profiles and Frost and Sullivan's Market Analysis
8. Researching home and host country government reports on PESTLED trends and their effects on different industries
9. Getting the perspective of project bond rating agencies and insurance companies on the effects of trends on project finance transactions
10. Researching multilateral agency and ECA reports on future trends and developments in project finance
11. Leveraging the knowledge of relationships in various funding sources and obtaining their perspective on trends and future scenarios
12. Asking the right questions and listening closely to customers and users

A variant of Figure 15.8.1 is a sketch summary of the progression of identifying relevant trends and quantifying their impact on a project is shown in Figure 15.8.2, with assessment of trend impacts focused on:

1. Understanding the sources of trends and changes caused by them
2. Identifying areas of innovations affecting each project stakeholder
3. Evaluating impacts of technology changes on project pricing and project delivery
4. Quantifying and examining trend‐impact scenario effects on the project financial model outputs
5. Assessing trend effects on sponsor competitive position and project financing

The first order in the assessment process starts with selecting the most relevant megatrends followed by a thorough host country environmental analysis and, having the benefit of the insights of futurists, determine how different trends are likely to affect the project company. Once the identification of country, industry, and company impacting trends is complete, trend impacts affecting the nature of a product or service and delivery are evaluated. How? By leveraging knowledge of industry experts, building plausible scenarios for forecasting models, and analyzing the effects of trends on pricing, demand, and the supply of the project company's output.

The evaluation of scenario outputs and sensitivity analysis facilitates a reasonably good assessment of the project company's SWOT analysis under the impact of trends. It also helps in the development of sponsor strategy and plans to deal with adverse trend impacts or prepare to take advantage of the opportunities presented by them. However, trend analysis and impact quantification are far more valuable when taking into account the impact of trends on all project stakeholders. This is needed because, for example, what impacts sponsors one way may affect equipment suppliers, host governments, contractors, and funding sources differently and/or with different lags. Note that ordinarily the evaluation of other trend impacts on stakeholders is of lesser rigor than that of on sponsors and the project company. However, differential impacts need to be considered and may require reconciling to satisfy adversely impacted parties.

What is also important in overall trend assessment is that trend impacts need to be evaluated for specific areas of a given project. Namely, impact evaluation on the following project areas:

1. Design, engineering, specifications, and requirements
2. Feasibility study, development, and sustainability
3. Competency and knowledge requirements
4. Procurement, logistics, and project delivery
5. Risk identification, mitigation, and enhancements required
6. Project economics, financeability, and funding
7. Costs and efficiencies and potential synergies
8. Sponsor company's competitive advantage in project development and financing

Once trends are identified, analyzed, and their impacts quantified, planning and preparation to take advantage of trends or avoid adverse effects take place. Here, the value added of experts in competitive analysis and strategic‐decision forecasting are crucial in the development of response and expectation realization planning. Why? Because the various trend impacts need to be integrated into an overall project value impact. This requires extensive industry knowledge, skills, and experience, and seasoned judgment to make the integration by assigning appropriate weights to different trends.