Chapter 2

Risk Perception

Simply defined, the word risk denotes some measure of uncertainty. In casual use, risk implies negative consequence while opportunity implies positive consequence (1).

Perception is the process of interpreting sensory stimuli by filtering it through one's experiences and knowledge base. Note that perception is not the same as sensation, as the latter term is physiological and the former is learned (2).

Taken together, risk perception is an individual or group assessment of the potential for negative consequence. Within emergency management circles, understanding the public's general perception of risk (for instance, the isolated opinion contains peaks and valleys) is useful in establishing the necessary level of preincident emergency training, public relations and instructions/recommendations during the incident, and postincident continuing communications. Risk perception plays into the choices made as to what information is to be provided and in what format—both inside the affected organization and outside. From the company's management structure to its blue-collar workers to its colocated workers to the neighboring suburbs and beyond, risk perception is as close to “the facts” as each person gets until their vision is altered by some later, greater truth.

Like the proverbial two-edged sword, risk perception both serves and hinders emergency management (EM) organizations and, subsequently, those protected and supported by the EM function. At one tapered end of the spectrum lies a band of Chicken Littles pointing at the blue sky and warning of dire consequences; at the opposite, there is a huddle of frumpy white-coated scientists swaddled in disdain. The majority of us lay somewhere between these two, our placement in demographics split into hundreds, even thousands, of layered and skewed bell curves based on age and income, experience and education, and innumerable other facets. It's the endless variability of the public that makes risk perception such a difficult management issue. But it can be managed.

While it is safe to say that there is a near-endless variation in perception, cataloging allows one to build boxes around like perceptions until they are within a defined set. To build these boxes, you need to know what factors affect the audience's perception. Is the subject matter highly technical and beyond the bulk of the area's laymen? Does the vicinity you are considering have decades of experience with your particular industry? Has that experience resulted in bad blood?

To understand what knowledge is relevant to your evaluation of the audience's risk perception, you have to consider the business you are in. Examples of heightened sensitivity (and negative perception) are those where the technology involved borders on black magic to the layman. Fission and fusion and government weapons facilities come immediately to mind, followed by sprawling laboratories where the workers say little about what goes on inside their white walls. The less he knows, the more Joe Q. public thinks and wonders and, ultimately, worries. As a matter of comparison, let us consider two hazards commonly found in high population areas: liquid petroleum gas and lawn care chemicals.

Liquid petroleum gas (LPG), AKA LPG AKA propane, is a common fuel in the city and the country, in industrial areas and rural areas, and at homes and businesses. Small containers, such as those used for barbeques, propane-powered vehicle fuel tanks, and camp trailers can be found literally everywhere. Larger containers, such as 30,000-gal bulk tanks for distributors, can be found in most cities across the country. At pier side, where massive ships unload, tanks may carry as much as 50,000 tons of propane.

Decades of use and familiarity have made modern man comfortable with propane. The 250- and 500-gal tanks available at many gas stations are no cause for concern (to the point that few of those operating them even wear protective gloves or a face shield during propane handling). The racks of refillable barbeque propane bottles stored outside most grocery stores are not either. Nor are the multiple tractor-trailers carrying thousands of gallons of propane across town and on every freeway.

A quick calculation shows that the 6000 gal of propane on any given tanker truck contains approximately 549 million BTU—equal to 138.4 tons of TNT or just over nine times the explosive force that exploded over Hiroshima in August 1945. Still, it is just propane. Right?

Suburban America believes in chemistry when it comes to their pretty yards, colorful flowers, and heavily laden vegetable gardens. In just the care and feeding of their lawns, they rely on sprayed fertilizers, pesticides, selective herbicides, fogs for trees, and powders for annoying ants. If you watch Joe Q. public working with the likes of these, often as not you will find just a bit of care included. Service companies warn you to keep your animals away from sprayed areas until dry. Folks generally wear gloves and avoid spreading chemicals on windy days. Some go as far as to wear dust masks. The point here is that they think about it. Why? What is the difference between the hazards of LPG and lawn care chemicals? They both are hazardous but in different ways, and, generally speaking, both are accepted as acceptable risks by the public.