In a meeting in 1990, a group of new engineers sat around a table and discussed the possible risks to a research reactor in the middle of the desert and the possible consequences. One possible scenario was a large commercial airliner crashing into the reactor. On discussing the scenario, there was laughter in the room. On the morning of September 11, 2001 that scenario became not just a “what if” but a real disaster. Therefore, when determining the possible set of credible consequences of which to consider risk, ask at least the following questions:
Always involve a team of subject matter experts when developing lists of possible consequences. The Delphi method discussed in Chapter 7 is a good tool to aid in these types of activities. Never dismiss a consequence until it is proven to be not credible. Then consider all the credible consequences when performing the risk assessment.
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