Thus far, we have looked at two ways to factor resources into our predictions. One focuses on calculating the gold cost of a mission, whereas the other searches for the maximum distance over which our proposed campaign could take place. We will demonstrate both approaches here:
- Calculate the gold cost of the planned mission:
> #how much would it cost to launch a 7 day fire attack with 2,215 soldiers, 225 miles away in Anding? > functionGoldCost(2215, 225, 7) [1] 6017.417
- Calculate the distance over which the proposed attack could take place:
> #custom function that calculates the the maximum distance the Shu army can travel given our resources > functionMaxDistance <- function(gold, ShuSoldiers, duration) + { + 100 * ((gold / ShuSoldiers) + (duration / 15)) + } > #how many miles can a Shu force of 2215 travel to execute a 7 day fire attack, given our allotment of 1,000,000 gold? > functionMaxDistance(1000000, 2215, 7) [1] 45193.39
In our first calculation, we derived a cost of 6,017 gold for the attack. This is well under our budget of 1,000,000 and therefore is completely practical. Our second calculation found the maximum possible distance that our army could travel, given our resources. The distance of 45,193 miles is well beyond the distance to the target city. Therefore, we have also determined the distance of our attack to be feasible.
We looked at assessing the viability of a potential fire attack in terms of gold cost and travel distance. These are just a pair of the numerous possible ways that the practicality of our plans could be tested and confirmed. Be sure to explore every angle necessary to make yourself confident that your plans are the best ones available. After all, the welfare of many people depends upon your decisions.
One final reminder is that we must be wary of the assumptions that we make in formulating plans. If you look back at our calculation that lead to a requirement of 2,215 soldiers, you will notice that we assumed our fire attack would be successful. We must ask ourselves if this, as well as any, assumption is a sound one.
According to our past battle data, fire attacks have only been executed successfully 33% of the time. Let us look at how our viability would change if we were to use this probability value, rather than assuming total success:
> #based on past battle data, how many Shu soldiers would be needed to lead a victorious 7 day fire attack against the 10,000 Wei soldiers at Anding? > functionFireShuSoldiers(80, probabilitySuccessFire, 7, 10000) [1] -25538.46
Our recommended number of soldiers has suddenly turned negative! Considering that engaging a negative number of soldiers is an obvious impossibility, this indicates that our fire attack plans are completely impractical. This example has demonstrated how changing one simple assumption can have a dramatic impact on our predictions and subsequent decisions.
You may be wondering which assumption, 1.0 or 0.33, is the better one in our case. As with all assumptions, the truth is that there is no absolute answer. Since our work deals with predicting the future, there will always be uncertainties about the assumptions that we make. The best that we can do is to thoughtfully consider all of the information available to us. In doing so, we can derive predictions that most accurately reflect the conditions present in the world.
- Which of the following is not a reason to carefully consider assumptions when making logistical considerations?
a. Assumptions rarely have an absolute best answer.
b. Assumptions often have an impact on calculated results.
c. Assumptions may affect the validity of predicted outcomes.
d. Assumptions can be altered to achieve desirable real-world results.
You have worked long and hard to learn the techniques of master strategist Zhuge Liang. Furthermore, you have become deeply aware of and involved in the circumstances surrounding the Shu army. The time has come for you to determine which course of action the Shu forces will take. Use the knowledge and skills that you have acquired throughout this journey to predict and assess the optimal strategy for your army's upcoming attack. It is recommended that you explore all four methods available head to head, surround, ambush, and fire before making a final decision.
The following table has been provided to aid you in this process. One scenario has been calculated in the head to head column as an example. By the end of this activity, you should decide on the strategy that your forces will execute in the upcoming battle:
|
Potential battle strategies | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Method |
Head to head |
Surround |
Ambush |
Fire |
|
Shu Soldiers |
87,376 | |||
|
Wei Soldiers |
15,000 | |||
|
Predicted Execution |
1.0 | |||
|
Predicted Rating |
80 | |||
|
Location of Attack |
Guangling | |||
|
Distance |
700 | |||
|
Duration |
78 | |||
|
Provisions |
227,178 | |||
|
Gold Cost |
1,065,987 | |||
|
Viable |
No |