10. Red Army Rising—The Coming China Hot Wars

The first rule of unrestricted warfare is that there are no rules, with nothing forbidden.

—Chinese air force Colonels Qiao Ling and Wang Xiangsui

We must persist in taking the development path of peaceful rise ... and make a contribution to the lofty cause of peace and development for all humanity.

—Communist Party General Secretary Hu Jintao

Will China give us “unrestricted warfare” as its Young Turk military commanders have threatened or a “peaceful rise” as China’s civilian leaders promise? Perhaps no question is bigger than this one in the twenty-first century because any “hot war” with China runs the very real risk of quickly escalating into a literally earth-shattering nuclear exchange. Compelling evidence against China’s claim of a peaceful rise may be found in the following observations.

China is now engaged in a massive military buildup, with its military budget growing at almost twice the rate as China’s own white-hot economy. Even more ominously, the Chinese military has dramatically shifted its strategic perspective. In the past, China focused primarily on the regional, and largely passive, defense of its territory. Today, China is beginning to project its military power globally while it focuses on the growing need to ensure access to international markets, global oil reserves, and other natural resources.

China’s top strategic thinkers are also redefining the modern battlefield as well as the very concept of war itself. Just consider these chilling observations from the “asymmetrical warfare” playbook of air force Colonels Qiao Ling and Wang Xiangsui:

If the attacking side secretly musters large amounts of capital without the enemy nation being aware of this at all and launches a sneak attack against its financial markets, then after causing a financial crisis, buries a computer virus and hacker detachment in the opponent’s computer system in advance, while at the same time carrying out a network attack against the enemy so that the civilian electricity network, traffic-dispatching network, financial transactions network, telephone communications network, and mass-media network are completely paralyzed, this will cause the enemy nation to fall into social panic, street riots, and a political crisis.

This chapter takes a tough hard look at China’s rapid military buildup together with its radical strategic shift toward unrestricted and asymmetrical warfare. Importantly, this chapter will also look at eight possible triggers for an actual hot war involving China’s armed forces and potential combatants around the world.

Lest anyone believe that this hot war threat is fanciful, it is useful to remember this critical slice of modern Chinese history: Since the birth of communist China in 1949, China has fought border wars with both India and Vietnam. It has gone to the nuclear brink with Russia and fought proxy wars against the United States in both Taiwan and Vietnam. And one should never forget that the “Korean” War was primarily a very bloody, up-close, and personal battle between Chinese and American troops.