Contents

Global Macrotrends and Their Impact on Supply Chain Managemen: Strategies for Gaining Competitive Advantage

Preface

Part I Global Macrotrends Impacting the Supply Chain Environment

Chapter 1 Supply Chain Management in the 21st Century

A Note on Futurism

The Underpinnings of Supply Chain Management

What You Will Learn from This Book

Managing the Supply Chain to Mitigate Macrotrend Risks

Chapter 2 Global Population Growth and Migration

Impacts of Population Change on Demand and Supply

Population Growth Perspectives

Organic Population Growth Issues for Supply Chain Managers

Supply Chain Problems Created by Migration-Based Growth

The Future Supply Chain Manager’s Population-Oriented Agenda

Chapter 3 Global Connectivity and Socioeconomic Leveling

Is Globalization Real?

Economic Leveling and Connectivity Issues for Future Supply Chain Managers

Chapter 4 The Changing Physical Environment

The Environment and You, You and the Environment

Environmental Pressures on Supply Chains

Environmental Challenges for Future Supply Chain Managers

Chapter 5 Geopolitical and Social Systems Disruptions

Commodity Hoarding and Export Restriction: The China Syndrome

Government Risks and Considerations

Tangible and Virtual Intentional Disruptions

Geopolitical Challenges for Future Supply Chain Managers

Part II Macrotrend Implications for Supply Chain Functionality

Chapter 6 Implications for Supply Chain Planning: Demand and Supply Uncertainty

How Supply Chain Plans Improve Performance

The Supply Chain Planning Function

Macrotrend Demand/Supply Impacts: Supply Chain Planning Considerations

Chapter 7 Implications for Sourcing/Procurement: Natural Resource Scarcity

Understanding Resource Scarcity Today and Tomorrow

Natural Resource Attributes and Their Future Implications

The Seven Forces Driving Resource Scarcity

Scarcity Strategies for the Future Procurement/Supply Manager

Sourcing and Procurement Responses to Resource Scarcity Through 2030

Chapter 8 Implications for Production: Disrupted Process Flows

Manufacturing and the Larger Economy

Manufacturing-Driven Supply Chain Strategies

Manufacturing Strategies for the Future Production Manager

Chapter 9 Implications for Transportation/Logistics: Congestion and Infrastructure Decay

Friction of Distance

Public-Private Partnerships and Other Solutions

Responding to Congestion, Distance Friction, and an Overwhelmed Infrastructure

Diffusing Congestion with Advanced Technologies

Part III Macrotrend Risk-Mitigation Strategies

Chapter 10 Mitigating Supply-Driven Imbalance

Employment Approaches

Conservation Approaches

Resource Scarcity Mitigation Strategies for the Supply Chain

Mitigating Supply-Driven Imbalances

Chapter 11 Mitigating Demand-Driven Imbalance

Demand Shaping in the Transforming World: Macro and Micro Issues

The Case for Demand/Supply Integration

Implementing DSI to Mitigate Demand-Side Imbalances

Applying the Demand-Imbalance Mitigation Strategies

Index

Financial Times Press

Supply Chain Network Design: Applying Optimization and Analytics to the Global Supply Chain

Preface

Part I: Introduction and Basic Building Blocks

1 The Value of Supply Chain Network Design

2 Intuition Building with Center of Gravity Models

3 Locating Facilities Using a Distance-Based Approach

4 Alternative Service Levels and Sensitivity Analysis

5 Adding Capacity to the Model

Part II: Adding Costs to Two-Echelon Supply Chains

6 Adding Outbound Transportation to the Model

7 Introducing Facility Fixed and Variable Costs

8 Baselines and Optimal Baselines

Part III: Advanced Modeling and Expanding to Multiple Echelons

9 Three-Echelon Supply Chain Modeling

10 Adding Multiple Products and Multisite Production Sourcing

11 Multi-Objective Optimization

Part IV: How to Get Industrial-Strength Results

12 The Art of Modeling

13 Data Aggregation in Network Design

14 Creating a Group and Running a Project

Part V: Case Study Wrap Up

15 Case Study: JPMS Chemicals Case Study

Index

Financial Times Press

Demand and Supply Integration

Preface

Chapter 1 Demand/Supply Integration

The Idea Behind DSI

How DSI Is Different from S&OP

Signals that Demand and Supply Are Not Effectively Integrated

The Ideal Picture of Demand Supply Integration

DSI Across the Supply Chain

Typical DSI Aberrations

DSI Principles

Critical Components of DSI

Portfolio and Product Review

Demand Review

Supply Review

Reconciliation Review

Executive DSI Review

Characteristics of Successful DSI Implementations

DSI Summary

Chapter 2 Demand Forecasting as a Management Proces

What Is Demand Forecasting?

Defining Some Key Terms

Forecasting Level

Forecasting Horizon

Forecasting Interval

Forecasting Form

How Forecasts Are Used by Different Functions in the Firm

The Forecasting Hierarchy

Managing the Forecasting Process

The Nature of the Customer Base

The Nature of the Available Data

The Nature of the Products

The Role of Forecasting Systems

Forecasting Techniques

The Need to Measure Performance

Summary

Chapter 3 Quantitative Forecasting Techniques

The Role of Quantitative Forecasting

Time Series Analysis

Naïve Forecast

Average as a Time Series Technique

Moving Average as a Time Series Technique

Exponential Smoothing

Regression Analysis

Summary

Chapter 4 Qualitative Forecasting Techniques

What Is Qualitative Forecasting?

Who Does Qualitative Forecasting?

Advantages of Qualitative Forecasting Techniques

Problems with Qualitative Forecasting Techniques

Large Amounts of Complex Information

Information Limitations

Cost Issues

Failure to Recognize Patterns

Personal Agendas

Summary: Qualitative Technique Advantages and Problems

Qualitative Techniques and Tools

Jury of Executive Opinion

Delphi Method

Salesforce Composite

Summary

Chapter 5 Incorporating Market Intelligence into the Forecast

What Is Market Intelligence?

Bottom-Up versus Top-Down Forecasts

What Do Demand Forecasters Need to Do?

Customer-Generated Forecasts

Should We Get Forecasts from Customers?

If We Do Decide We Want Forecasts from Customers, Which Customers Should We Work With?

How Should This Forecasting Customer Collaboration Take Place?

How Should the Customer-Generated Forecasts Be Incorporated into Our Process?

Summary of Customer-Generated Forecasts

Putting It All Together into a Final Forecast

Summary

Chapter 6 Performance Measurement

Why Bother Measuring Forecasting Performance

Process Metrics Versus Outcome Metrics

Measuring Forecasting Performance

The Building Block: Percent Error

Identifying Bias

Measuring Accuracy

Outcome Metrics—The Results of Forecasting Excellence

Summary

Chapter 7 World-Class Demand Forecasting

Functional Integration

DSI Processes

Organization

Accountability

Role of Forecasting versus Planning

Training

Summary: How Companies Can Improve on the Functional Integration Dimension

Approach

Forecasting Point of View

What Is Being Forecasted?

Forecasting Hierarchy

Statistical Analysis

Incorporation of Qualitative Input

Summary: How Companies Can Improve on the Approach Dimension

Systems

Level of Integration

Access to Performance Measurement Reports

Data Integrity

System Infrastructure

Summary: How Companies Can Improve on the Systems Dimension

Performance Measurement

How Is Performance Measured?

How Is Performance Rewarded?

Summary: How Companies Can Improve on the Performance Measurement Dimension

Summary of World Class Forecasting

Chapter 8 Bringing It Back to Demand/Supply Integration: Managing the Demand Review

Phase I: Preparation of Initial Forecast

Phase II: Gap Analysis

Phase III: Demand Review Meeting

Conclusions

Index

The Supply Chain Management Casebook

Preface

Chapter 1 Comprehensive Coverage of Supply Chain Issues

Case 1 The Salvation Army in Dallas: The Supply Chain Challenges of a Non-Profit Organization

Arunachalam Narayanan, University of Houston

Case 2 Perdue Farms: A Vertically Integrated Supply Chain

Ling Li, Old Dominion University

Chapter 2 Supply Chain Risk Management

Case 3 Improving Stanford Blood Center’s Platelet Supply Chain

Yenho Thomas Chung, LG CNS Entrue Consulting Partners

Feryal Erhun, Stanford University

Tim Kraft, University of Virginia

Case 4 Financial and Operational Risk Management at Molson Coors

Dennis Kira, Concordia University

Ahmet Satir, Concordia University

Dia Bandaly, Concordia University

Case 5 Toyota China: Matching Supply with Demand

Xiaoying Liang, City University of Hong Kong

Lijun Ma, Shenzhen University

Houmin Yan, City University of Hong Kong

Case 6 Cisco Systems, Inc.: Supply Chain Risk Management

María Jesús Sáenz, MIT-Zaragoza International Logistics Program

Elena Revilla, IE Business School

Case 7 BESSI: The Importance of Coordinating Product Development with Supply Chain Planning in the Fashion Goods Industry

Maria Caridi, Politecnico di Milano

Margherita Pero, Politecnico di Milano

Antonella Moretto, Politechnico di Milano

Chapter 3 Supply Chain Analytics

Case 8 Queuing at eCycle Services

Janice Eliasson, University of Calgary

Brent Snider, University of Calgary

Case 9 Multi-Echelon Inventory Decisions at Jefferson Plumbing Supplies: To Store or Not to Store?

Amit Eynan, University of Richmond

Case 10 Global Pharma: Managing Uncertainty

Sourabh Bhattacharya, Institute of Management Technology

Surajit Ghosh Dastidar, Institute of Management Technology

Case 11 Supplier Selection at Kerneos, Inc.

Ling Li, Old Dominion University

Erika Marsillac, Old Dominion University

Ted Kosiek, Kerneos, Inc.

Case 12 The Interface between Demand Management and Production Strategies at TractParts

Abhishek Shinde, Indian Institute of Management

Dileep More, Indian Institute of Management

Case 13 Analyzing Distribution Network Options at Remingtin Medical Devices

Yusen Xia, Georgia State University

Walter L. Wallace, Georgia State University

Case 14 NunaSacha: A Facility Redesign in the Ecuadorian Andes

Verónica León B., Universidad San Francisco de Quito

Daniel Merchán D., Universidad San Francisco de Quito

Ximena Córdova V., Universidad San Francisco de Quito

Carla Tejada L., Universidad San Francisco de Quito

Giuseppe Marzano, Universidad San Francisco de Quito

Case 15 Sherman’s Supply Chain Challenge: Stopping the Retailer from Overcharging for Soda

Chuck Munson, Washington State University

Chapter 4 Short but Sweet

Case 16 Ethical Product Sourcing in the Starbucks Coffee Supply Chain

Dustin Smith, Washington State University

Case 17 Tmall, The Sky Cat: A Rocky Road Toward Bringing Buyers and Suppliers Together

Jianli Hu, Woodbury University

Olivia Congbo Mao, Alibaba Group

Case 18 Make to Demand with 3-D Printing: The Next Big Thing in Inventory Management?

Tom McNamara, ESC-Rennes

Erika Marsillac, Old Dominion University

Case 19 Airbus’ Overstretched Supply Chain: Just How Far Can You Go Before Your Supply Chain Snaps?

Erika Marsillac, Old Dominion University

Tom McNamara, ESC-Rennes

Case 20 How to Keep Your Food Supply Chain Fresh

Tom McNamara, ESC-Rennes

Erika Marsillac, Old Dominion University

Case 21 The End of Lean?: Automobile Manufacturers Are Rethinking Some Supply Chain Basics

Erika Marsillac, Old Dominion University

Tom McNamara, ESC-Rennes

Chapter 5 Unique Challenges from Around the Globe

Case 22 A Brazilian Dairy Cooperative: Transaction Cost Approach in a Supply Chain

Fernanda Pacheco Dohms, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio Grande do Sul

Sergio Luiz Lessa de Gusmão, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio Grande do Sul

Case 23 Continuous Process Reforms to Achieve a Hybrid Supply Chain Strategy: Focusing on the Organization in Ricoh

Mikihisa Nakano, Kyoto Sangyo University

Case 24 Improving Preparedness in Supply Chain Risk Management at Jacket

Jury Gualandris, Università degli studi di Bergamo

Matteo Kalchschmidt, Università degli studi di Bergamo

Case 25 Supply Chain Strategy at Zophin Pharma

Arqum Mateen, Indian Institute of Management

Case 26 Waste to Wealth—A Distant Dream?: Challenges in the Waste Disposal Supply Chain in Bangalore, India

M. Ramasubramaniam, Loyola Institute for Business Administration

P. Chandiran, Loyola Institute for Business Administration

Case 27 Transitioning the Supply Network of Chennai Engineering Ltd to Cloud Computing

N. Chandrasekaran, Take Solutions, Ltd. & Loyola Institute for Business Administration

Case 28 Tussle between Maintaining Customer Satisfaction and Supply Chain Constraints: IGNYS Automotive

Satish Kumar, Indian Institute of Management

Dileep More, Indian Institute of Management

Case 29 When a Western 3PL Meets an Asian 3PL, Something Magical Happens

Shong-Iee Ivan Su, Soochow University

Case 30 Supply Chain Risk Management for Macro Risks

Matthias Klumpp, FOM University of Applied Sciences

Hella Abidi, FOM University of Applied Sciences

Index

Financial Times Press

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