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Part IV: Conclusions
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Part IV: Conclusions
by Piero Baraldi, Roger Flage, Terje Aven, Enrico Zio
Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: The Representation and Treatment of Uncertainties by Probabilistic and Non-Probabilistic Methods
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Preface
Part I: Introduction
Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1 Risk
1.2 Probabilistic Risk Assessment
1.3 Use of Risk Assessment: The Risk Management and Decision-Making Context
1.4 Treatment of Uncertainties in Risk Assessments
1.5 Challenges: Discussion
References – Part I
Part II: Methods
Chapter 2: Probabilistic Approaches for Treating Uncertainty
2.1 Classical Probabilities
2.2 Frequentist Probabilities
2.3 Subjective Probabilities
2.4 The Bayesian Subjective Probability Framework
2.5 Logical Probabilities
Chapter 3: Imprecise Probabilities for Treating Uncertainty
Chapter 4: Possibility Theory for Treating Uncertainty
4.1 Basics of Possibility Theory
4.2 Approaches for Constructing Possibility Distributions
Chapter 5: Evidence Theory for Treating Uncertainty
Chapter 6: Methods of Uncertainty Propagation
6.1 Level 1 Uncertainty Propagation Setting
6.2 Level 2 Uncertainty Propagation Setting
Chapter 7: Discussion
7.1 Probabilistic Analysis
7.2 Lower and Upper Probabilities
7.3 Non-Probabilistic Representations with Interpretations Other Than Lower and Upper Probabilities
7.4 Hybrid Representations of Uncertainty
7.5 Semi-Quantitative Approaches
References – Part II
Part III: Practical Applications
Chapter 8: Uncertainty Representation and Propagation in Structural Reliability Analysis
8.1 Structural Reliability Analysis
8.2 Case Study
8.3 Uncertainty Representation
8.4 Uncertainty Propagation
8.5 Results
8.6 Comparison to a Purely Probabilistic Method
Chapter 9: Uncertainty Representation and Propagation in Maintenance Performance Assessment
9.1 Maintenance Performance Assessment
9.2 Case Study
9.3 Uncertainty Representation
9.4 Uncertainty Propagation
9.5 Results
Chapter 10: Uncertainty Representation and Propagation in Event Tree Analysis
10.1 Event Tree Analysis
10.2 Case Study
10.3 Uncertainty Representation
10.4 Uncertainty Propagation
10.5 Results
10.6 Comparison of the Results to Those Obtained by Using Other Uncertainty Representation and Propagation Methods
10.7 Result Comparison
Chapter 11: Uncertainty Representation and Propagation in the Evaluation of the Consequences of Industrial Activity
11.1 Evaluation of the Consequences of Undesirable Events
11.2 Case Study
11.3 Uncertainty Representation
11.4 Uncertainty Propagation
11.5 Results
11.6 Comparison of the Results to Those Obtained Using a Purely Probabilistic Approach
Chapter 12: Uncertainty Representation and Propagation in the Risk Assessment of a Process Plant
12.1 Introduction
12.2 Case Description
12.3 The “Textbook” Bayesian Approach (Level 2 Analysis)
12.4 An Alternative Approach Based on Subjective Probabilities (Level 1 Analysis)
References – Part III
Part IV: Conclusions
Chapter 13: Conclusions
References – Part IV
Appendix A: Operative Procedures for the Methods of Uncertainty Propagation
A.1 Level 1 Hybrid Probabilistic–Possibilistic Framework
A.2 Level 2 Purely Probabilistic Framework
Appendix B: Possibility–Probability Transformation
Reference
Index
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Chapter 13: Conclusions
Part IV
Conclusions
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