Stijn Decneut

Scrum is a framework for developing and sustaining complex products. Unfortunately, there are many misconceptions around the meaning of the word complex. The most common, and at the same time most severe, problem is mistaking complex for (merely) complicated.

It might be hard, but complicated problems can be solved with rules and recipes. With enough analysis, clever people can implement definite solutions. Complex problems are fundamentally different, as they involve too many interrelated factors with a degree of unpredictability. This makes it impossible to tackle complex problems with rules, processes, and best practices, hoping for a guaranteed outcome.

For centuries, empiricism has proven to be the best mechanism known to humanity for dealing with complex problems. It is even essential to the learning process of living creatures. You would not have learned to eat, speak, read, etc., without going through empirical learning processes of trial and error. You would not have progressed without continuous empirical adaptation. Scrum offers exactly that: empirical process control.

When facing complex challenges, up-front analyses and plans offer no guarantee for success. We need to let go of preconceived tactics and trust our ability to learn from experiments often and fast; we need to rely on a combination of expertise, experience, and our human ability to learn.

However, that doesn’t come naturally in a professional environment.

Throughout evolutionary history, guessing what’s going to happen to us in the next moment has been a key survival skill. As a prediction genius, our brain safeguards us from harm by seizing risks and opportunities quickly. Our brain prepares our body and mind for events right before they occur. Furthermore, this enables us to deal with the outside world at a fraction of the energy cost that it would take to process all available signals. We compile what we experience based on predictions, and we scan for small fractions of information to (in)validate our assumptions of what is going to happen. Every time the incoming fractions of information appear to confirm a prediction, our brain rewards us with a good feeling caused by releasing dopamine.

In other words, it costs little energy and feels good to (try to) predict outcomes. And that happens even when it doesn’t make sense. Our ancient survival mechanisms are somewhat at odds with the mindset that we need for dealing with today’s increasingly complex challenges.

For Scrum to succeed, we need to be aware that it takes deliberate effort to treat our (often unconscious) predictions with a healthy dose of skepticism, even when an irrational part of us is fully convinced that we should simply trust our predictions and our ability to predict. Humanly, this is harder than you think.

All of us—even those who fully understand complexity—tend to be overly optimistic about the predictability of our environment, even when it is actually complex and chaotic. We are naturally inclined to undertake analysis and planning to prevent unexpected events from occurring. In complex situations, these are actually irrational attempts aimed at controlling that which is fundamentally uncontrollable. We reuse solutions well suited for complicated problems to deal with complex ones.

Ironically, in that process, we overcomplicate things. Setting up elaborate methodologies, providing extensive templates, going into more details up front, and so on, actually cause us to lose control.