FOREWORD

I Believe in This Prediction

A prediction is made in this book that China will lead the world in the new energy revolution.

This is a bold prediction of great significance that is worth our close attention.

A prediction is not reality. When things become reality, people no longer need a prediction. The value of a prediction lies in its accurate and forward-looking quality. A prediction then becomes the direction and motivator of efforts.

Will the author’s prediction materialize? This might be the book’s biggest question for its readers, especially for readers from China.

My impression is that Li Hejun is good at predictions. His pet phrase is “I have a prediction.” It is noteworthy that so far all of Li’s previous predictions have been confirmed. When preparing to build the Jin’anqiao Hydropower Station, he predicted that the government would eventually allow private companies to enter the energy sector. When entering the PV industry, he predicted that thin-film technologies, which were not as popular as crystalline silicon at the time, would catch up quickly and therefore should be preferred. When the wave of incidents relating to the PV industry was yet to arrive, he had made the prediction that there would be a radical shake-up in the PV industry in China and in the world at large. All these predictions of his have been proved correct, one by one. They have also enabled Hanergy to become China’s largest private clean energy company and the world’s largest thin-film solar cell company in the first decade or so of the twenty-first century.

Today, the author is making an even bolder and overarching prediction: China will lead the world in this new energy revolution. Will this prediction materialize?

I have no doubt. This is not only because of the accuracy of the author’s previous predictions. More importantly, this is an extremely convincing book.

The author discusses the new energy revolution at three levels.

First, at a global level, the fossil fuel–based energy system is nearing its end. Conditions have been created for new energy sources to take over. With both demand and preconditions, a new energy revolution is unstoppable.

Second, in China, where the biggest barrier to sustainability is an energy bottleneck formed in the fossil fuel era, new energy sources are gaining momentum to take over. With emerging advantages in accessibility, economic benefits, market demand, industry maturity, and policy incentives, it is entirely possible for China to lead the world in new energy development.

Third, at the industry level, the author delineates global trends in the PV industry while drawing lessons from abroad. By chronicling the history of PV technologies, the author demystifies the PV industry and identifies problems to be solved in the Chinese industry. He goes on to suggest strategies, approaches, and policies to facilitate the new energy revolution. The end result is a mini encyclopedia of PV industry strategies.

The author’s reasoning is so factually accurate and logically powerful that you cannot help but agree with his prediction.

Of course, even an accurate prediction is only a possibility and needs our efforts to realize it. This is what the book leaves the reader with. I believe that as long as we join forces, the author’s prediction will soon come true.

Ai Feng
Former Editor-in-Chief of Economic Daily
Founder of Brandcn.com