Chapter 7


Forming your strategy for big data and data science

‘… let’s seek to understand how the new generation of technology companies are doing what they do, what the broader consequences are for businesses and the economy …’ —Marc Andreessen.54

It’s exciting for me to sit with business leaders to explore ways in which data and analytics can solve their challenges and open new possibilities. From my experience, there are different paths that lead a company to the point where they are ready to take a significant step forward in their use of data and analytics.

Companies that have always operated with a minimal use of data may have been suddenly blindsided by a crisis or may be growing exasperated by:

  • lagged or inaccurate reporting;
  • wasted marketing spend;
  • time lost to poor sales leads;
  • wasted inventory; or
  • any one of a host of operational handicaps that can result when data is ignored or data solutions are constructed in a short-sighted manner.

They end up forced to run damage control in these areas, but are ultimately seeking to improve operations at a fundamental level and lay the groundwork for future growth.

Companies that have been operating with a data-driven mindset may be exploring innovative ways to grow their use of data and analytics. They are looking for new data sources and technologies that will give competitive advantages or are exploring ways to quickly scale up and optimize a proven product by applying advances in parallel computing, artificial intelligence and machine learning.

Regardless of which description best fits your company, the first step you’ll want to take when re-evaluating your use of data and analytics is to form a strong programme team.

The programme team

Your data initiative programme team should include individuals representing four key areas of expertise:

  1. strategic,
  2. business,
  3. analytic; and
  4. technical.

Strategic expertise

You’ll need to include someone on the team who has a deep understanding of your corporate strategy. The strategic vision will form the basis for all plans and discussions within the company, including the data strategy. This vision will have been specified by the shareholders, refined by the board of directors, and shaped by the culture within your organization. It will dictate the purpose and principles that underpin how you use data. If your new data strategy is not aligned with the company’s overall strategy, your subsequent efforts will not support parallel initiatives within your organization and will fail from lack of internal support.

There are many excellent frameworks for developing corporate strategies, and I won’t explore those but rather emphasize the importance of synchronizing data and corporate strategies. I’ll illustrate with the framework of Tracey and Wiersema,55 in which the strategic focus of a corporation may be to develop an advantage in exactly one of the following sectors: customer intimacy, product leadership or operational excellence. Within this strategic framework, if your company has chosen to differentiate itself through enjoyable shopping and excellent customer service (e.g. customer intimacy) you’ll choose a data strategy leading to improved customer experience (e.g. an intelligent personalization engine) rather than one focusing on cutting operational costs.

Business expertise

According to a recent global study, business teams lead the adoption of big data more frequently than IT teams.56 Big data is a team sport, and your efforts will likely fail without strong input and support from your non-technical colleagues. If they aren’t convinced of the benefits of your data initiatives, you are probably doing something wrong.

Harvest the intuition of colleagues with the deepest understanding of the customer, the product and the market. Get them involved at the start of your analytics programme and keep them closely involved at each stage of development.

You’ll see many advantages from involving business stakeholders in the initial stages.

  • They will understand the nuances of the market, including the impact of demographics, product segments, and seasonality/holidays.
  • They will have a good idea what is most important to customers and what customers view as your product differentiators. They will have spoken with a variety of customers over the years. The insights they’ve gained will be invaluable to your analytics programme.
  • They will remember past initiatives your company and similar companies have tried. They will remember what did or didn’t work well. They will tell you why things went wrong and suggest how they could go better next time.
  • They will have insights into other companies in your industry, perhaps having worked there, and will be familiar with their strengths, weaknesses and key differentiators.
  • They will tell you ‘obvious’ details that can easily save you months of effort.

Incorporating business intuition is a tricky balancing game, and I’ve seen it go both ways. I’ve seen analysts sitting in isolation come up with models that completely missed key aspects of the business, and I’ve seen business directors make strong statements later proven by the data to be completely wrong.

Intuition sometimes is right and sometimes not, so it’s important to take seriously any non-measurable input from the business, while subsequently seeking data to verify that intuition.

Involve the business experts in the following ways:

  1. To introduce the basics of how the business operates, including the customer base, the products and the competitors. They should explain the competitive differentiators of each market player, how companies and their market share have been changing over time, and how customers themselves have changed during this period.
  2. To explain their insights into the business, in areas such as customer preferences, marketing channel effectiveness, customer segment price sensitivity, purchasing rhythms, potential product improvements, etc. They may consider their insights as facts or as hunches. Either way, take them with a grain of salt and use them as starting points until you have had a good look at supporting data. These insights will form the basis for your initial list of analytics projects, either as assumptions to be verified or as opportunities for further analysis, leading ultimately to product improvements.
  3. To provide continuous feedback during the data collection and modelling processes. The business experts will typically have some of the best insights into which data is reliable and which data should be disregarded. These insights will be critical for analysts. In addition, the business experts will have intuition into which data is most relevant for specific analysis.
    Let your business stakeholders review your analytic models. They can often quickly catch errors in a modelling process by flagging aspects that seem counter-intuitive.
    To illustrate, consider a recent study at the University of Washington. Researchers took a standard data set and created a classification model that performed with an accuracy of 57 per cent (rather weak). A modelling expert then removed spurious (misleading) data and improved the accuracy to 70 per cent. The researchers gave the same data set to non-technical model reviewers and asked them to also remove the spurious features from the data. After three such iterations, the non-technical reviewers had beaten the technical modeller in identifying the most relevant data, improving the accuracy of the final model from 57 per cent to over 75 per cent,57 and thus demonstrating the value of having non-technical business experts review analytic models.
  4. To provide the broader context of product history and what has brought you to where you are now. This gives you context and helps you avoid repeating costly mistakes. It also helps you to understand the accumulated learning and the thought processes that form the history of your company. It can resurrect options previously dismissed but which have since become more attractive, perhaps due to advances in technology, market movements or customer base.
    It is important to rehash options over time. Not only is technology developing rapidly, but people are also changing in how they use technology. As an example, we have as consumers developed over the last fifteen years an increased willingness to enter credit card details and a decreased responsiveness to certain forms of marketing.
    Your company may have developed a whole product strategy based on customer insights that are no longer relevant. By understanding the historic backdrop that led you to where you are today, your project team will be better positioned to consider which questions need new answers and which improvements might be made through applications of data and analytics.

Analytic expertise

Don’t start an analytic initiative without including someone with a strong background in developing and deploying analytic models. I know this sounds obvious, but I’ve seen large companies try to do just that, and it’s painful to watch. You need to include an expert who understands what is possible with data and analytics and can estimate what is needed to attain what is possible. This person should have a strong technical background, several years of analytic leadership experience within a comparable industry setting and a broad understanding of the models, tools and applications available for bringing business value from data and analytics. You can substitute academic experience for industry experience, at a risk.

Your company needs to identify high-potential analytic applications, and it needs to choose from a broad selection of analytic methods and models. In addition to the methods of artificial intelligence and deep learning, which are currently trending, many traditional methods rooted in the fields of statistics, network/graph algorithms, simulations, constrained optimization and data mining have proven their worth over recent decades. Each algorithm has strengths and weaknesses, and you must take care to choose algorithms suited to your data and applications. Considering only a subset of these tools when approaching a business problem will limit your success and can lead to a tremendous waste of effort.

You’ll need to understand what techniques will continue to work well as your problem size grows. Each algorithm will differ in how it scales, so your analytics expert should understand whether a technique that performs well with a small data set is likely to scale well to a much larger data set. In summary, it is important to bring a broad understanding of analytic models to the project team.

Keep in mind

You’ll need a broad understanding of programming languages and analytic tools, not only the most recently trending technologies, but also a strong understanding of traditional methods.

The tools you’ll consider range from basic to advanced functionality. At the most foundational level, there are many programming languages that can be used for building solutions from the ground up. These include Java, C++, Python, SAS, R, S-plus and a host of others, some of which are free and some of which are proprietary. Each programming language will have its own strengths and weaknesses, some of the most important considerations are:

  • execution speed;
  • ease of development (including the availability of relevant libraries);
  • the ability of the language to easily interface with relevant technologies (third party and those of the company itself); and
  • the breadth of the user / support base (again including support within the company itself).

You should also be familiar with the development frameworks available for optimizing development and deployment of your base code, and how you can deploy custom code within larger software packages you may use, such as R or Python code within an SAS application.

Overall, you’ll need to make a nuanced version of the classic ‘build vs buy’ decision, deciding how to mix and match pre-existing analytic tools that have differing levels of complexity and inter-operability. Some of these tools will be open-source and some will be proprietary. For some well-established analytic models that have had time to be highly optimized by specialist vendors, such as linear programming, there are strong advantages to investing in an off-the-shelf solution. For specialized AI methods with limited but important application within your business, consider a pay-per-use model from vendors such as Google or Salesforce (Einstein) rather than expending internal effort.

The analytics specialist should bring a broad understanding of potential applications for data and analytics within your organization, along the lines of the applications I’ve listed in Chapter 4.

As you think about how to utilize data science within your organization, consider:

  1. With which analytic applications are the business units already familiar? Web developers may be familiar with A/B testing, finance professionals with statistical forecasting, marketing professionals with funnel analysis and bid optimization, etc.
  2. Are there additional best practice analytic applications that the company has not yet considered?
  3. Have there been recent technical developments that could improve performance of analytic applications already implemented, such as the incorporation of new big data technologies, algorithms or data sources?
  4. Are there innovative methods that have recently been employed in other industries, which may in turn introduce possibilities for new competitive advantages within your industry?

For each of the above points, your analytics specialist should be able to estimate the data, technology and personnel requirements necessary both for prototyping as well as for deployment.

As part of this process, they should be forming a holistic picture of the company’s existing and potential data assets, including standard operational, customer and financial data; the raw data collected in data lakes; third-party data that could be purchased or collected; and possibly even the dark data within your systems.

Technical expertise

The project team will need technical expertise to ensure operational success. This will be someone with an understanding of the technology for data collection and transfer, general infrastructure and corporate databases. Data is a critical component of analytics initiatives, so your technical expert should bring an understanding of the extent and accuracy of the various data stores within the organization.

Your company may also have one or more operational data stores, data marts and/or data warehouses, which will provide the data for analytics projects. In addition, analysts will need to create tables, sometimes large tables, in one or more of these databases and may even need additional types of databases, such as graph or document databases (discussed further in Chapter 8).

The technical expert will provide direction and assistance related to your computing infrastructure, whether it be in-house server capacity or possibilities to provision in the cloud.

It’s important to build solutions that you can maintain long term. This will help you maximize the chance your analytics projects will bring long-term value. Your technical expert will help ensure these projects can integrate with existing technology.

To this end, ask the input of your technology expert regarding:

  • acceptable choice of development language, frameworks and operating system;
  • requirements for version control and documentation; and
  • requirements and resources for testing (QA) and deployment to production.

Your analytics efforts depend on IT support. Many projects fail because they do not get the buy-in of IT. Involving IT from the start serves four purposes.

  1. It informs the analytics expert of the available technology landscape.
  2. It helps ensure long-term success in the organization by showing what standards and technologies should be utilized.
  3. It allows IT to contribute valuable ideas and insights.
  4. It helps secure buy-in from IT from the very beginning.

After years of being awoken at 3 am or phoned during a holiday to fix malfunctioning production code, many IT staff will be extremely sensitive to analytics initiatives with even the slightest risk of breaking existing code. They may also be averse to any vagueness or uncertainty in project planning, wanting every project step to be laid out at the start. As we’ll see later, analytics projects don’t typically lend themselves well to extensive pre-planning, so some tension can easily develop in this regard.

Other IT staff can be very eager to try new technologies and new analytic methods. These are typically the younger ones with fewer 3 am experiences under their belts, but sometimes also the senior staff. Quite often, the developers in IT are extremely enthusiastic about analytic projects. These people will typically be some of the strongest and most valuable supporters of your analytics initiatives.

Keep in mind

Your IT professionals may have two goals: stability and/or innovation. Many measure the success of IT in terms of reliability. Others measure its success in terms of creativity and innovation, even if the new features aren’t perfect.

The kick-off meeting

Once you’ve selected your programme team, plan a programme kick-off meeting to lay the strategic foundation for the analytics initiative, sketching the framework for business applications, brainstorming ideas, and assigning follow-on steps, which will themselves lead to initial scoping efforts. The four skill sets represented in the programme team should all be present if possible, although the business expert may cover the strategic input and it is also possible (but not ideal) to postpone technology input until the scoping stage.

Also helpful at this stage is to have detailed financial statements at hand. These figures will help focus the discussion on areas with the most influence on your financials. Bring your standard reports and dashboards, particularly those that include your key performance indicators (KPIs).

Strategic input

Start the kick-off meeting by reviewing the purpose and principles that govern your efforts. Continue by reviewing the strategic goals of the company, distinguishing between the long- and short-term strategic goals. Since some analytics projects will take significant time to develop and deploy, it’s important to distinguish the time-lines of the strategic goals. If there is no executive or strategic stakeholder involved in the process, the team members present should have access to documentation detailing corporate strategy. If there is no such strategic documentation (as is, sadly, sometimes the case), continue the brainstorming using an assumed strategy of plucking low-hanging fruit with low initial investment, low likelihood of internal resistance and relatively high ROI.

Business input

After reviewing the principles and strategy, review the KPIs used within the organization. In addition to the standard financial KPIs, a company may track any number of metrics. Marketing will track click-through rate, customer lifetime value, conversion rates, organic traffic, etc. Human resources may track attrition rates, acceptance rates, absenteeism, tenure, regretted attrition, etc. Finance will typically track financial lead indicators, often related to traffic (visits, visitors, searches) as well as third-party data.

At this stage, probe more deeply into why certain KPIs are important and highlight the KPIs that tie in most closely with your strategic and financial goals. Identify which KPIs you should most focus on improving.

The business experts should then describe known pain points within the organization. These could come from within any department and could be strategic, such as limited insight into competition or customer segments; tactical, such as difficulty setting optimal product prices, integrating data from recent acquisitions or allocating marketing spend; or operational, such as high fraud rates or slow delivery times.

Ask the business experts to describe where they would like to be in three years. They may be able to describe this in terms of data and analytics, or they may simply describe this in terms of envisioned product offerings and business results. A part of this vision should be features and capabilities of competitors that they would like to see incorporated into their offerings.

Analytics input

By now your business objectives, principles, and strategic goals should be completely laid out (and ideally written up in common view for discussion). At this point, your analytics expert should work through the list and identify which of those business objectives can be matched to standard analytic tools or models that may bring business value in relieving a pain point, raising a KPI, or providing an innovative improvement. It’s beneficial to have cross-industry insight into how companies in other industries have benefited from similar analytic projects.

To illustrate this process, a statistical model may be proposed to solve forecasting inaccuracy, a graph-based recommendation engine may be proposed to increase conversion rates or shorten purchase-path length, a natural language processing tool may provide near-real-time social media analysis to measure sentiment following a major advertising campaign, or a streaming analytics framework combined with a statistical or machine learning tool may be used for real-time customer analytics related to fraud prevention, mitigation of cart abandonment, etc.

Technical input

If IT is represented in your kick-off meeting, they will be contributing throughout the discussion, highlighting technical limitations and opportunities. They should be particularly involved during the analytics phase, providing the initial data input and taking responsibility for eventual deployment of analytics solutions. If your technical experts are not present during the initial project kick-off, you’ll need a second meeting to verify feasibility and get their buy-in.

Output of the kick-off

The first output of your programme kick-off should be a document that I refer to as Impact Areas for Analytics, consisting of the table illustrated in Figure 7.1. The first column in this table should be business goals written in terminology understandable to everyone. The next column is the corresponding analytic project, along the lines of the applications listed in Chapter 4. The next three columns contain the data, technology and staffing needed to execute the project. If possible, divide the table into the strategic focus areas most relevant to your company.

By the end of your kick-off meeting, you should have filled out the first two columns of this matrix.

Figure 7.1 Template for Impact Areas for Analytics document.

Figure 7.1 Template for Impact Areas for Analytics document.

The second document you’ll create in the kick-off will be an Analytics Effort document. For each analytics project listed in the first document, this second document will describe:

1. The development effort required. This should be given in very broad terms (small, medium, large, XL or XXL, with those terms defined however you’d like).
2. An estimate of the priority and/or ROI.
3. The individuals in the company who:
  a. can authorize the project; and
  b. can provide the detailed subject-matter expertise needed for implementation. We are looking here for individuals to speak with, not to carry out the project.
  These are the ‘A’ and the ‘C’ in the RASCI model used in some organizations.

Distribute the meeting notes to the programme team members, soliciting and incorporating their feedback. When this is done, return to the programme sponsor to discuss the Impact Areas for Analytics document. Work with the programme sponsor to prioritize the projects, referencing the Analytics Effort document and taking into consideration the company’s strategic priorities, financial landscape, room for capital expenditure and head-count growth, risk appetite and the various dynamics that may operate on personal or departmental levels.

Scoping phase

Once the projects have been discussed and prioritized with the programme sponsor, you should communicate with the corresponding authorizers (from the Analytics Effort document) to set up short (30–60 min) scoping meetings between the analytics expert and the subject matter expert(s). The exact methods and lines of communication and authorization will differ by company and by culture.

During the scoping meetings, speak with the individuals who best understand the data and the business challenge. Your goal at this stage is to develop a detailed understanding of the background and current challenges of the business as well as the relevant data and systems currently in use.

The subject experts and the analytics expert then discuss:

  • the proposed analytics solution;
  • what data might be used;
  • how the model might be built and run; and
  • how the results should be delivered to the end user (including frequency, format and technology).

After each scoping meeting, the analytics expert should update the corresponding project entry on the Analytics Effort document and add a proposed minimum viable product (MVP) to the project description.

The MVP is the smallest functional deliverable that can demonstrate the feasibility and usefulness of the analytics project. It should initially have very limited functionality and generally will use only a small portion of the available data. Collecting and cleaning your full data set can be a major undertaking, so focus in your MVP on a set of data that is readily available and reasonably reliable, such as data over a limited period for one geography or product.

The description should briefly describe the inputs, methodology and outputs of the MVP, the criteria for evaluating the MVP, and the resources required to complete the MVP (typically this is only the staff time required, but it might entail additional computing costs and/or third-party resources). Utilizing cloud resources should eliminate the need for hardware purchases for an MVP, and trial software licenses should substitute for licensing costs at this stage.

Feed this MVP into whichever project management framework you use in your company (e.g. scrum or Kanban). Evaluate the results of the MVP to determine the next steps for that analytics project. You may move the project through several phases before you finally deploy it. These phases might include:

  1. several iterations on the MVP to converge on the desired result;
  2. further manual application with limited scope;
  3. documented and repeatable application;
  4. deployed and governed application; and
  5. deployed, governed and optimized application

with each successive stage requiring incremental budgeting of time, resources and technology.

It’s very important to keep in mind that analytic applications are often a form of Research & Development (R&D). Not all good ideas will work. Sometimes this is due to insufficient or poor-quality data, sometimes there is simply too much noise in the data, or the process that we are examining does not lend itself to standard models. This is why it’s so important to start with MVPs, to fail fast, to keep in close contact with business experts and to find projects that produce quick wins. We’ll talk more about this in the next chapter when we talk about agile analytics.

Keep in mind

Not all good ideas will work. Start small, get continual feedback, and focus on projects with quick wins.

Case study – Order forecasting for a German online retailer

The Otto group, a German retail conglomerate, employs over 54,000 employees operating in more than 20 countries.58 Since its establishment in 1949, it has grown to become one of world’s largest online retailers. The Otto group has developed several internal applications of AI, one of which nicely illustrates the benefits of close cooperation between business and analytics teams.

At a business level, Otto realized they were losing millions of euros annually because of the costs associated with product returns. The business and analytics teams worked together to address this problem in two phases.

The first phase was to analyse product return data to see what insights emerged. The analysis revealed that a significant portion of returns were products that took more than two days to arrive. Customers left waiting would either purchase the item elsewhere (perhaps at a local shop at discount) or lose enthusiasm for the product. The result was a lost sale and sunk shipping costs. Otto did not itself stock many of the products that it offered, hence the shipping delays.

This data insight led to the second phase of the analytics solution. If Otto could accurately forecast the product orders, it could itself order the inventory even before the customer placed the order. This would allow them to deliver within a shorter time window, resulting in fewer returns. For the analysis, Otto used several billion past transactions, combined with several hundred potentially influential factors (including past sales, online customer journey and weather data).

At this point, the analytics team had a choice of several analytic tools and models. They could have used a classic rule-based approach or a statistical model, selecting and refining features to construct forecasts for product groups. They also considered feeding big data into a deep-learning algorithm.

In the end, they utilized deep-learning technology and what they eventually produced was an analytic tool that could forecast 30-day sales with 90 per cent accuracy. This system now automatically purchases several hundred thousand items per month from third-party brands with no human intervention. Thanks to this analytic project, Otto’s surplus stock holding declined by one fifth and their product returns decreased by more than two million items per year.59

We see in this example how the Otto group used data and analytics in two key ways in addressing the problem of item returns. The first way was to diagnose the source of the problem, the second was to create a tool they could deploy operationally. These are two of the four primary uses of analytics within organizations. We’ll discuss all four in the next chapter.

Takeaways

  • Start your analytics programme by forming a programme team with expertise in strategy, business, analytics and technology.
  • Identify business objectives and match them with analytic projects, data, technology and staffing.
  • Make sure you get sufficient stakeholder input and buy-in at each stage of the programme.
  • Start with small projects with low risk and high ROI.

Ask yourself

  • If you were to form a programme team with knowledge of strategy, business, analytics and technology, who would be in that team? Ideally you would have one senior person for each of the four areas, but you may need more people to cover the range of important sub-domains.
  • Who are the individuals with the best insight into your business, including knowledge of customers, competitors and the history of the industry? These people should at some point have worked directly with your customers.
  • What recent events in your organization make this a difficult or a very promising time to initiate new analytics efforts? Who would be the biggest champions and challengers of such an effort?
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