13

GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE

“We are on a giant car heading towards a brick wall and everyone is arguing where they are going to sit

– David Suzuki, Canadian Environmentalist”

Al Gore, the former US Vice President got the Nobel Prize for making and showing a short film “An inconvenient truth” on climate change. He was the right man, who came at the right time, with the right message and method. Any hurricane, any major flood, any major heavy rain and any major heat wave are now attributed to global warming. Global warming is traced to its root cause of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted primarily from rapid industrialization. Climate change is equated with more frequent occurrences of extreme weather events of higher intensity and increase in global temperature.

13.1 COMPONENTS OF CLIMATE

Climate is a relatively long-term state of the atmospheric conditions and phenomena at a place. It is a factor of the atmosphere, and has got less to do with lithosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere of the environment. Atmosphere is responsible for the temperature of a place, rainfall of a place and winds at a place. Even though temperature, rainfall and wind are the three major components of climate traditionally spoken about by the farmers and meteorology department, there are many sub-components and other attributes to it, They are as follows:

• Maximum–minimum temperature of a place
• Diurnal variation in temperature
• Day length/night length
• Light intensity
• Seasons and seasonal variation in temperature and day lengths
• Wind speed, direction of the wind and variations in wind speed
• Type of wind and regularity of onset of wind of particular type
• Seasonality of wind speeds
• Total annual rainfall and number of rainy days
• Ocean currents and their direction, frequency and temperature
• Snowfall intensity and patterns
• Heat waves and cold waves, their intensity and pattern
• Cloudiness: its pattern, duration and intensity
• Lightning and thunderstorms
• Fog and smog
• Hurricane, tornadoes and tropical storms
• Relative humidity of the place.

13.1.1 Classification of climate

Climate is classified as desert, tropical, subtropical, temperate and extreme cold climate on a broader term. Tropical climate is characterized by warm temperature throughout the year with less seasonal variation. Temperate climate has clearly defined four seasons – autumn, fall, spring and winter. Subtropical climate is in between the two. Extreme cold climate is found in tall mountain ranges and near polar regions.

Another classification of climate is as wet climate and dry climate, depending on the intensity and total number of rainy days at a place.

13.1.2 Climate factors affecting biosphere characteristics

A biome is a distinct ecological community of plants and animals living together in a particular climate and geography. Thus, biome is a climatically and geographically defined area defined by factors such as plant structures, leaf types, plant spacing and climate. Climate is a major factor determining the distribution of terrestrial biomes. Some of the important climatic factors that define biomes are as follows:

1. Latitude: arctic, temperate, subtropical and tropical
2. Humidity: humid, semi-humid, semi-arid and arid
3. Seasonal variation: rainfall may be distributed evenly throughout the year or is marked by seasonal variations
4. Dry summer, wet winter: most regions of the earth receive maximum rainfall during the summer months; the regions with Mediterranean climate receive their rainfall during the winter months
5. Elevation: latitude and/or elevation decide the temperature zoning. Elevation has the same effect as that of latitude on biodiversity. Higher elevation tends to support less vegetation.

Since the diversity and number of biological resources increases from the poles towards the equator and also increases with humidity at a place, latitude-based (or temperature zoning) and humidity-based classification schemes of biomes are the most widely used. Land-based biomes are tundra, Montana grasslands, temperate coniferous forests, temperate grasslands, savannas, tropical moist broadleaf forests, deserts and xeric shrublands, flooded grasslands, riparian and wetland.

The most important determinants of the type of vegetation and, therefore, the animal species found in an area are temperature and rainfall. Moisture and cold stress impact plant form, plant size, pace of growth, leaf characteristics, spacing and species diversity and, therefore, the vegetation that defines the region. Since climatic factors determine plant form, type, spacing, duration, etc., which are the producers in the food chain, all other consumers in a food chain are limited to the extent of plant growth and productivity in that region. Thus, the climatic factors govern the flora and fauna (producers and consumers in the food web) of a climatic region, which become well adapted to the physical environment of their distribution area.

The most complex biome is the tropical broadleaf evergreen forest, in terms of both structure and diversity. The forests found in Brazil, Sri Lanka, Kenya, Malaysia and the Western Ghats in India are examples of this type of biome. Optimal growing conditions with abundant rainfall and year-round warmth and sunshine that are described in climatic terms as equatorial climate support and maintain the rain forest. Each species has evolved its own flowering, fruiting and breeding seasons without any well-defined climate seasons, unlike the annual rhythm of the four seasons existing in the temperate regions. Sunlight is a major limiting factor beneath the top canopy for herbs, grasses and shrubs. The tropical rain forest biome is distributed between 10°N and 10°S latitude at elevations below 3,000 m. There may be 40–100 species of dominant trees in 1 hectare of tropical rain forest. Tropical species of both plants and animals often have highly restricted distribution areas. The transition of biomes such as tropical rain forest, temperate deciduous forest, taiga and tundra are based on one climatic factor alone, i.e., temperature, which influences the distribution and characteristic features of the biomes. Some biomes are not controlled so much by the temperature, but by the amount and seasonal distribution of rainfall. How much rain falls and when determines whether the biome will be temperate rain forest, grassland, desert, or chaparral.

The same temperate region that receives 300 cm of annual rainfall would support a temperate rain forest biome of luxuriant conifers, whereas an annual rainfall of 20 cm in the same temperate zone would create a desert with xerophytes such as cacti that have adaptations to conserve water over long periods. In desert biomes, burrowing type of animals survive, escaping the scorching heat of the desert sun, and such animals limit their forays for food to the night. Thus, in the same latitude, two types of entirely different biomes evolve with vastly different biodiversity on account of the quantum of rainfall received.

Marine biomes also are subjected to factors such as temperature, sunlight, salinity of water, nearness to landmass and ocean currents. The polar regions with ice sheets in oceans have a different life from that of tropical ocean areas. Deep sea (benthic area) has a different life from that of littoral or pelagic area due to differences in light penetration through water.

Any change in climate factors, especially temperature (global warming or cooling), will have a permanent impact on biomes, as the change in one species in a food web can alter species diversity in an ecosystem.

13.2 TREND IN CLIMATE

Trend in climate can be looked at in two ways – long-term trend on the basis of geological age and short-term basis. Paleo-climatology (study of past climates using proxies such as microbes, corals, diatoms, ice cores, pollen studies, radio carbon dating, tree rings and sediment cores) proposes that climate changes due to variations in the earth’s orbit, earth’s axial tilt, wobbling of earth, etc., in the long term are having an impact on the biosphere. CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere has been measured from 1958 onwards. In 2011, it was 391 ppm which is higher than at any point during the past 800,000 years. From 1958, there has been an increase in CO₂ concentration and a corresponding increase in global average temperature which was below 15°C in 1958. Earlier, climate changes (cooling or warming) were due to subtle shifts in the earth’s orbit or variation in sun’s energy, whereas the climate change during the last 100 years is believed to be due to human action of burning fossil fuels and other industrial activities. This warming or rise in earth’s average surface temperature changes the rainfall patterns and wind patterns and melts ice caps and, thus, alters the climate. The changing trend in CO₂ concentration and temperature for the last 400,000 years is given in Figures 13.1 and 13.2, respectively. It can be seen that there had been increases in global temperatures in the past.

13.2.1 Climate change index

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences developed an index, taking a set of factors including CO₂ increase, temperature changes, sea level, status of sea ice, etc. The index was 34 in 1980, which rose to 574 in 2007. The index fell back in 1982 and 1996 due to volcanic eruptions. The dust from the volcanic eruptions in the upper atmosphere cooled the planet in these years.

13.2.2 Climate change versus climate variability

Climate variability is a climatic parameter of a locality that varies from its long-term mean. Each year during a particular day, the climate of a locality will be different in terms of temperature, rainfall, wind velocity, wind direction, humidity, cloudiness, etc. The same day of five different years will have five different types of weather. Variability may be internal variability resulting from natural internal processes within the climate system or external variability resulting from anthropogenic forces.

13.3 NATURAL CLIMATE CHANGE

In the year 2001, the journal “Science” published an article based on long-term analysis of iceberg debris that there were nine global warming and nine global cooling instances in the last 12,000 years. There is natural global warming driven by a cycle in the magnetic activity of the solar system. This is in contrast to the theory of global warming caused by the GHG effect due to burning of fossil fuels and other human activities in the industrial civilization. In addition to these warming cycles, GHGs that are naturally occurring in the atmosphere have the ability to absorb radiation selectively and cause warming of the earth. GHGs like CO₂ are released into the atmosphere by all living organisms during respiration and from natural forest and pasture land fires. Methane is released naturally into the atmosphere from the wetlands and normally by the ruminants while belching. Nitrous oxide is formed during lightning, as the atmosphere has both nitrogen and oxygen in a natural proportion.

There are natural global warming periods that alternate with cooler periods when long-term climate trend is analyzed. The present slow warming of the planet can be taken as a natural phenomenon in the normal cycle. Climate variability is a natural phenomenon and a functional feature for the environment. Climate variability makes adaptive changes among plants and animals, and the fitter individuals would thrive decimating the weaker ones. Such adaptive changes due to normal climate variability might be bringing new species, which gives stability and change to ecosystems in a dynamic continuum.

13.3.1 Extreme weather events and climate change

There had been hurricanes, drought, heat waves and heavy rains in the past. However, the death rate of human beings was less from the extreme weather events. The reason is lower population in the previous centuries and less population density in the vulnerable areas. When the river basin becomes thickly populated and the watershed area is denuded and cultivated, there will be accelerated soil erosion and sedimentation in the river. Any heavy rain would come down from the watershed area as the infiltration capacity of the soil is lower due to erosion. The plains are flooded as the water-carrying capacity of the river is reduced due to sedimentation. The increasing intensity of the floods, flooding more of the flood plains or causing more deaths, may not be due to climate change, but due to population increase, construction of dams and presence of large settlements on flood plains leaving rivers nowhere to flood naturally. If the deaths from floods are to be reduced, the flood plains are to be restored to their earlier natural state, encroachments to riverbanks should be stopped and sedimentation load in the rivers has to be reduced.

Similarly hurricanes are projected in news as having more intensity and frequency now, considering the death toll from each occurrence. Population living in vulnerable areas, buildings not adapted to hurricane-prone areas, converting normal wetlands that used to absorb storm surges into built-up areas, etc., could be the reasons for more devastation caused by the hurricanes, and not the GHGs.

One hundred years before, a hurricane in an island nation or flood or drought might not have had the same visibility as is now possible from the electronic media coverage far and wide. What was directly experienced by a few affected people is now vicariously experienced by a large number of people through the visuals on TV, which amplifies the impact of an extreme weather event.

13.3.2 Ozone as a protectant and pollutant

The ozone layer is located about 12–30 km above the earth’s surface in the stratosphere. It protects life on earth by screening out most of the damaging, high-energy ultraviolet (UV) radiation in the sunlight. In the range from 200 to 320 nm, the absorption efficiency of ozone is a million times more than that of oxygen. Thus, even though present in small proportion, ozone acts as a protectant. Since ozone in the stratosphere protects life from UV radiation by blocking it from reaching the earth’s surface, there were worldwide campaigns to reduce the human activities that risked disrupting the ozone layer. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) emitted from aerosol sprays or refrigerators were thus restricted to protect the ozone layer.

The growing concentration of ozone in the earth’s lower atmosphere is considered to be pollution. Motor vehicle exhausts, industrial emissions, gasoline vapors, chemical solvents, etc., are the natural sources emitting oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) that help form ozone. Ground-level ozone is the primary constituent of smog. High concentrations of ground-level ozone can be formed by hot weather and intense sunlight naturally. A variety of health problems are attributed to breathing ozone-rich air. Chest pain, coughing, throat irritation, and congestion can be caused by ozone pollution as well. It can worsen bronchitis, emphysema, and asthma. Repeated exposure may permanently scar the lung tissue. Ground-level ozone also reduces the photosynthetic efficiency of plants and reduces forest growth and crop yield, potentially impacting species diversity in an ecosystem.

13.3.3 Ozone depletion and its impact

The ozone layer is located in the lower portion of the stratosphere between 19 and 30 km above the ground. This ozone layer holds about 90 per cent of the ozone in the earth’s atmosphere. Ozone is measured in Dobson unit (DU) which is the total amount of ozone in a column overhead. (It is named after the British meteorologist, G. M. B. Dobson, who developed a spectrometer to measure ozone. He also established a worldwide network of ozone monitoring stations between 1928 and 1958.) Life on earth is adapted thanks to this ozone layer acting as a filter for the harmful UV rays in the solar radiation. It is estimated that the stratospheric ozone layer absorbs 93–99 per cent of UV rays, making it a protective layer for life on earth.

When the ozone losses in the layer are below 200 DU, the phenomenon is referred to as “ozone hole.” Manmade ozone-depleting substances cause this thinning from the normal concentration of 300–350 DU (less than 10 parts ozone per million). The release of chlorine and bromine from the CFCs is the main cause of this depletion. CFCs do not break down easily, and stay in the atmosphere for up to 120 years. When they reach the stratosphere, they are broken down by the UV rays, releasing free chlorine which combines with ozone and releases oxygen.

Ozone is converted to an oxygen molecule, leaving the chlorine atom free to repeat the process up to 100,000 times. Bromic compounds, called halons, also destroy ozone. CFCs are widely used as coolants in refrigeration and air conditioners, as solvents in cleaners, as blowing agents in the production of foam (fire extinguishers) and as propellants in aerosols. There are five main CFCs – CFCl₃, CF₂Cl₂, C₂F₃Cl₃, C₂F₄Cl₂ and C₂F₅Cl. Rocket launching is emerging as a major ozone-depleting event than that caused by CFCs. The Montréal Protocol signed in 1987 addresses this issue. The effects of ozone layer loss are manifold which are given below:

• Effects on human and animal health: risks of eye diseases, skin cancer and infectious diseases from altered immune system
• Effects on plants: increased UV-B radiation can cause mutation in plants, altering the plant forms and metabolism, ultimately leading to species diversity
• Effects on aquatic ecosystem: distribution of phytoplankton will be impacted, which is at trophic level 1 in the aquatic food web. The reproductive capacity of fishes, shrimps and crab and their larval development would be affected by UV-B radiation
• Effect on biogeochemical cycles: altering the sources and sinks of GHGs by changes in the production and decomposition of plant matter, inhibition of nitrifying bacteria, etc.
• Effect on air quality: increased penetration of UV-B radiation causes higher photodissociation of other gases
• Effects on materials: synthetic polymers and biopolymers are affected by photodegradation leading to discoloration and loss of mechanical integrity.

13.4 ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE

 

“Wisdom demands a new orientation of science and technology toward the organic, the gentle and beautiful

– E. F. Schumacher, Small is Beautiful”

Changes in climatic parameters such as temperature, rainfall, wind velocity and cloudiness brought about by human action are the anthropogenic climate changes. Earlier, natural disasters were believed to be acts of God or natural phenomena; and then came the realization that human beings are also impacting the occurrences or intensity of natural disasters and extreme weather events. Even if natural disasters like earthquakes or tsunami are not caused by human action, their impact on human life is certainly aggravated by the human activities. Similarly even if global warming is not caused by human action, its impact on human life and well being is aggravated by human activities. The concentration and global warming potential of four GHGs are given in Table 13.1. It may be observed that CFC was not present in the atmosphere before industrialization. A disturbing feature of GHGs is that they stay in the atmosphere for many years.

 

13.5 IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

 

“Our generation has inherited an incredibly beautiful world from our parents and they from their parents. It is in our hands whether our children and their children inherit the same world

– Richard Branson, pledging 3 billion dollars to combat global warming”

Anthropogenic climate change is believed to be the result of emission of GHGs which results in a gradual warming of the planet. Increase in temperature would result in warming the oceans more than normal, resulting in more evaporation of water into the atmosphere. More water vapor in the atmosphere would bring more rains. More rains would bring more freshwater to the water-scarce regions, which is a positive impact of the climate change. Increased temperature would melt polar ice, resulting in sea-level rise, which is a negative impact of global warming. Thus, there are positive and negative impacts.

13.5.1 Positive impact of climate change

• People who live in water-stressed areas are likely get more freshwater from the increased rainfall, thanks to global warming. Areas where the people get rains less than 1,700 m³/year are water stressed. A 1 per cent increase in total annual rainfall is predicted on account of global warming.
• There is reduction in the number of cold waves, which would reduce the death toll resulting from extreme cold temperature.
• There is likely to be less energy consumption for heating the rooms in colder climates.
• Crop producing lands are likely to expand as the present extreme cold regions would become suitable for the growth of crops.
• Longer growing season would increase the productivity per unit of land.
• More CO₂ in the atmosphere would increase the crop yield by CO₂ fertilization.
• Reduced photorespiration in C₃ plants due to CO₂ increase makes most of the C₃ plants more water efficient.
• New crops may evolve through natural selection with suitable day length for their growth as every 1°C rise in temperature may increase the duration of plants by 10 days.
• As an adaptation to climate change, countries and people are likely to invest in flood prevention structures, leave wetlands to absorb storm surges and construct more sturdy houses to withstand hurricanes.

13.5.2 Negative impact of climate change

• Increase in temperature is likely to lead to increased energy consumption for cooling the rooms and cars with air conditioners.
• Shift in climate zones due to temperature change: it is estimated that climate zone may shift 300 km north for every 1°C rise of temperature in the Northern Hemisphere. This shift would result in shifting of agricultural regions which are likely to encroach into the present forest zones. Till the agricultural systems adapt to the new climate zones, the carrying capacity of regions would change resulting in higher global food prices.
• Evaporation from soils and waterbodies is likely to increase 5 per cent for every 1°C rise in temperature, leading to drought, and water stress in already water-scarce and drought-prone areas. Desertification may be accelerated resulting in loss of crop lands.
• Increase in global temperature would melt polar ice sheets and glaciers. Antarctic ice may break up resulting in floating icebergs. There is a risk of breach of glacier lakes leading to floods. Rising sea levels due to melting of ice can cause intrusion of saline seawater into freshwater aquifers, causing groundwater pollution. Sea-level rise results in low drainage in coastal areas, making them flood prone. The areas where people reclaimed wetlands into settlements, which were natural defenses against storm surges, would suffer the most from storm surges, hurricanes and tsunamis. Destruction of mangroves, swamps and other wetlands that soaked up rains earlier would alter the natural drainage system as a result of uncontrolled and nature-unfriendly development in the recent past.
• Temperature increase changes the pollination, flowering and fruit set of plants. This would alter the maturity periods and harvesting times of crops.
• Increase in temperature would result in biodiversity loss. Microorganisms and lower trophic level organisms adapted to a narrow temperature range may perish with the increase in temperature.
• The loss of natural enemies of pests and diseases would result in pest outbreaks, pest resurgence, or new diseases becoming dominant. There will be new pest and weed infestations.
• With more CO₂ in the atmosphere, there is likely to be increased C/N ratio in the leaves resulting in insects feeding more.
• Altered wind pattern disperses pests and bacterial and fungal spores in new areas, resulting in crop losses and disease spread affecting the public health.
• Microbial decomposition of soil organic matter would increase with increase in temperature, and thus, the water-holding capacity of soil would decrease. This will result in more runoff and floods.
• Coral reefs and forests would decrease due to change of climate zones, resulting in increased severity of storms and winds. Coral reefs act as a first level of defense to tsunamis and storms. Forests act as wind break, reducing the speed of winds.
• Wherever people have made settlements or encroachments into nature’s original design (forest-covered hill slopes to hold soil and soak up rains; wetlands to absorb flood water; mangroves, corals and swamps to break and soak up storms, flood plains to accommodate floods), there will be more casualties by way of landslides, building collapse, floods and drought.

13.6 EFFORTS TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE

 

“If we want a good environmental policy in the future we will have to have a disaster

– Sir John Houghton, lead editor of the first three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)”

Vienna Convention of 1985 and Montréal Protocol of 1989 were the first attempts at the United Nations (UN) level to address phasing out ozone layer depleting substances. The Climate Change Convention of 1992 with the theme of stabilizing GHGs, along with the Kyoto Protocol of 1997 paved the framework for addressing the climate change with the cooperation of all countries. This was followed by further conferences at the aegis of the UN. Copenhagen Conference of 2009 and Cancun Conference of 2010 mobilized action for emission limitation for 2020. Durban Conference of 2011 also made efforts to curb emissions of GHG with the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities” as enshrined in the UN framework convention on climate change (UNFCC). The dispute is on the start date of considering this responsibility. The developed world argues for considering the world as it is today, not as it was 20 years ago (1990 levels of GHG emission). Developing countries argue that the developed world was emitting more GHGs earlier that resulted in higher concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere, which accelerated the climate change. Today majority of the emissions come from developing countries in their rapid economic development efforts. The effort, through international cooperation, is to hold global warming below 2°C, compared to the temperature in preindustrial times.

There are many individual, business, community and regional actions recommended to reduce global warming, such as using low carbon fuels, carbon offsets, green energy, tree planting, green office standards, increasing the energy efficiency, energy label on appliances, carbon taxes, legal action and awareness creation efforts. There are basically two approaches to deal with climate change:

• Reduce the emissions of the gases that are causing the problem
• Cope with the impacts of climate change by people and communities.

There are again two ways to follow the first approach:

• Policies and measures designed to reduce GHG emissions
• Enhancing the sinks – increasing the reservoirs that absorb CO₂ such as forests, peat bogs, planting more trees, vegetation cover on bare earth areas and urban agriculture/horticulture.

13.6.1 Adaptation for climate change

The corrective steps to address the ill effects of global warming are a set of adaptation steps that reduce the vulnerability and increase the resilience of different systems to global warming. To mitigate the risks of flooding of low-lying areas from the rising sea levels, regulating and restricting housing in the vulnerable areas and building flood defense structures including sea walls are possible adaptations.

Impact on agriculture is another area that requires planning for adaptation. The shifts in rainfall pattern and intensity can cause droughts in some areas and floods in other areas, both of which are detrimental for farming. The farming zones are likely to shift, and hence, intelligent crop selection and appropriate agronomic practices need development for adaptation to such agro-climatic zone shifts. The economic, social and political disruptions that accompany the possible failure of small and marginal farms need attention. Flood-resistant varieties, drought-tolerant varieties and varieties tolerant to varying day lengths are already in the plant breeding agenda to address the potential negative effects of global warming.

The demand for water for irrigation is projected to increase in warmer climate. Falling water tables and the resulting increase in energy needed to pump water will make the practice of irrigation more expensive, especially when more water is required per hectare due to drier climate. Increasing the rain water storage for domestic use, unpaved gardens, increasing the capacity of storm water system, etc., can be the adaptation strategies. Weather control measures such as seeding clouds and replicating the urban heat island effect creating more rain in hotter areas are also the possible adaptations. Damming the glacial lakes, which would be formed due to the retreat of glaciers, leaving behind numerous lakes that are impounded, is another adaptation strategy.

13.6.2 Geoengineering and technical remedies

Maintaining or changing the climate of a region to a desired state deliberately by employing scientific techniques is technically possible. There are also technologies to manage the increased heat from solar radiation. Using space sunshade, painting roofs white, using white paving materials, using special types of panels or bricks for walls, etc., are the techniques to remediate heat. Creating stratospheric sul-fur aerosols also is predicted to reduce solar radiation. GHGs are believed to be the primary causative factor for global warming, and hence, GHG remediation techniques such as use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage, powering the economy with nonfossil fuel based technologies have already made headway. Lasers to break up CFCs in the atmosphere, and iron fertilization of oceans to stimulate phytoplankton growth and the growing phytoplankton absorbing the CO₂ are also potential technologies to address GHGs. Hydrological geoengineering seeking to preserve sea ice or adjust thermohaline circulation or tethering icebergs to prevent them from drifting into warmer waters and melting, and preventing arctic methane release are the measures having preventive effects on global warming. Methane reacts with OH ions in the troposphere; therefore, by providing more OH ions, methane can be neutralized. Photodissociation of CFCs occurs in the stratosphere, which can be manipulated. Thus, there can be technical and engineering remedies to reduce the level of GHGs in the atmosphere.

13.6.3 Developing sinks of CO₂

 

“Nature is my God; to me nature is sacred; trees are my temples and forests are my cathedrals

– Mikhail Gorbachev, former leader of USSR”

Forests, soil and oceans sequester or absorb CO₂. By planting more trees and covering the entire land areas under vegetation, CO₂ levels in the atmosphere can be reduced. Each country and region should develop an action plan for limiting the temperature and sea-level rise. China and many other countries are making great strides in planting more trees. India has a national action plan for climate change, and sustainable development is an objective of the 5-year plan staring from 2012. Remedial land use plan for coastal areas, which have many wetlands, is another effort. Coastal areas are divided in India into four zones and coastal zone conservation plans are being developed. An inventory of sinks and sources of GHGs would help to plan better. Water and land management practices to prevent drought are being adopted that would help in maintaining the vegetation cover on the soil to continuously absorb CO₂ from the atmosphere.

13.6.4 National action plans to address climate change

 

“Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction

– E. F. Schumacher”

National governments are largely responsible and equipped for formulation and implementation of corrective steps from local to the national level. In this context, a contradictory situation existed earlier that national governments attached high priority to development policies and plans and not to global warming. National governments also have commitments made as part of international treaties and protocols, which are to be translated to national-level policies and regulations. Each country has its own contextual issues to address, in addition to the global issues such as global warming. Adoption of mitigation and adaptation techniques in a timely manner depends on the correct understanding of the phenomenon of global warming, its effects on sectors within the country, and how the existing problems such as poverty, unemployment, drinking water problems, poor farm productivity, dwindling forest cover, etc., will exacerbate from global warming. Hence, as part of the corrective steps, integration between global warming checking plans and socio-economic development plans including principles such as social justice and equity is a necessity to effectively address the ill effects of global warming. With respect to India, three such corrective steps that can be taken as a national mission to start with are briefly described below;

1. Carbon capture: Carbon capture and storage should be made a national mission since coal will be a major source of energy for India for some more time. Hence, technology is to be developed to strip carbon from the emissions in the coal-based thermal power plants and then find a place to store it.
2. Conversion efficiency: Twenty-seven per cent of India’s national energy needs are met from biomass which is the second largest source of energy in the country. The present efficiency of converting biomass into useful energy is as low as 5–6 per cent and there is no surplus biomass available. If government’s action plan has technology generation to improve the biomass conversion efficiency, the energy substitution from coal-based power would be possible to a large extent.
3. Energy efficiency and reduction in consumption during peak hours: Energy efficiency actually has a negative cost of abatement, which means that by saving on energy consumption, one not only reduces emission but also saves money. It needs to legislate on the kind of equipment that is allowed to be sold in the market. Introduction of an energy-efficient trading platform, energy taudits in industries and organizations, efficiency tags on all appliances, etc., would promote the efficiency. Pricing of energy at peak hours at substantially higher price than practicing load sledding during peak hours may be a better conservation method, so that people have an incentive to reduce the consumption during peak hours. Setting up of power plants close to load centers such as towns and cities also needs encouragement.

Each country needs to decide its priority corrective actions depending on the major source of GHG emissions, vulnerabilities and cultural traditions. A change of mindset to prepare integrated socio-economic–environmental action plans as part of the national strategy for implementation from grassroots level upwards with regular monitoring is a national adaptation to climate change.

13.6.5 Intergovernmental panel on climate change

Established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization, the IPCC provides the global community the scientific view on the issue of climate change and its potential consequences on environmental and socio-economic aspects. The IPCC is a scientific body reviewing and assessing the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide to the understanding of climate change. It assesses the current situation and trends in climate parameters and provides its assessments as the scientific basis for policymakers to base their decisions. It works through three working groups and a taskforce supported by a central secretariat getting inputs from thousands of authors, contributors and reviewers all over the world on a voluntary basis.

The assessment reports, special reports, methodology reports and other documentation that the IPCC generates are based on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent analysis of the available scientific, technical and socio-economic information. Its outputs are relevant to the understanding of the scientific basis of the risk of climate change induced by human beings, its potential impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation. IPCC reports are policy neutral, and review is an essential part of the IPCC process. Since IPCC is an intergovernmental body, review of IPCC documents involves both peer review by experts and review by governments. The Data Distribution Centre (DDC) under the IPCC provides data sets and scenarios of climate change and disseminates the information through presentations and outreach events.

The work of IPCC is policy relevant and yet policy neutral, never policy prescriptive as its role is to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. The scientific and intergovernmental nature makes the IPCC reports acceptable to a wide spectrum of socio-economic actors who make significant decisions in various parts of the world. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the authority of their scientific content.

13.7 MARKET MECHANISMS IN ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT

Market mechanisms rely on market forces to modify the behavior of individuals and firms. It is based on the principle that polluter pays for the cost of pollution, internalizing the costs of future cleanup, accounting for biodiversity loss and soil degradation, and undertakes mitigation measures. It is a strategic approach to environmental management as regulatory instruments are found to be ineffective and costly. Economic instruments can be applied to a wide range of environmental issues. However, the economic, enforcement and educational approaches complement each other.

13.7.1 Types of economic instruments

There are many market mechanisms to make environmental management advantageous to a business in the long run. Some of the instruments are listed below:

• Pricing: pricing the natural resources and energy at a level inducing to save and minimize waste is the mechanism. Water tariffs or charges set at a level, making it economically wise to save, recycle and reuse, would conserve the water resources. The cost of freshwater would be fixed more than the cost of treatment of water for reuse. Similarly waste generated has a cost for its disposal, and if the cost recovered from the generator of waste is higher than the recycling expenses of the waste, there would be efforts to minimize wastes. Similarly if the energy from the grid is costlier than possible renewable energy from solar, wind or biomass, electricity use may come down.
• Pollution charges: a firm that emits pollutants to the environment has to pay for the use of the environment. This is of four types:
  • Effluent charges per unit of effluent discharged into the environment
  • User charges for using a collective treatment plant
  • Product charges on the use of input or output that is harmful to the environment
  • Administration charges as the fess paid to the authorities to get licenses for polluting industries, for use of polluting chemicals, etc.
• Marketable permits: authorizing firms to emit a quantity over a time period, and such emission permits can be bought and sold
• Subsidies: providing tax incentives, grants, low–interest rate loans for installing pollution treatment plants or to change to cleaner technologies or changing to renewable energy sources
• Deposit–refund systems: one example of this type of market mechanism is consumers paying a surcharge at the time of buying a product, which would be refunded at the time of returning the product at the recycling plant
• Enforcement incentives: it is in the nature of non-compliance fees as fines. Liability is assigned for the damages caused to the environment and fine is to be paid.

13.7.2 Advantages of market instruments

The economic instruments to prevent climate change or to conserve any natural resource respond flexibly and independently in line with the market. They provide incentives to innovate and adopt new technology that emits less or no GHGs or uses less natural resources. Economic instruments have the ability to increase the revenue to finance pollution control measures while reducing the compliance costs for both the government and industry. Economic instruments are better suited to large numbers than the regulatory agency which cannot reach everywhere, and are free from the inefficiency of the regulatory agencies. Polluters can lobby the government or negotiate with the regulatory agency to design regulations that may not be better for the environment, whereas with market instruments, such an influence is reduced.

13.7.3 Disadvantages of economic instruments

 

“Our salvation depends upon our ability to create a religion of nature

– Rene Dubos, French scientist”

Some firms may opt to pollute and pay the charges, if the charges are not fixed at an appropriate level. It needs sophisticated institutions to implement and monitor. There will be erosion of pollution charges due to inflation, and economic instability makes them ineffective. Predicting the effects of a pollutant on the environmental quality and setting prices for the environmental resources is not easy. Sometimes the polluters may choose their own solutions, disregarding market mechanism.

13.7.4 Carbon credit and emission trading

Kyoto Protocol of 1997 is the framework from which the market mechanism of carbon credit to reduce GHG emissions has been developed. The protocol became operational from February 16, 2005 and the period to achieve target emission reductions ended by the end of 2012. At Doha round of discussions in December 2012, the protocol was extended. The aim of the protocol was collective emission reduction from six GHGs, CO₂, N₂O, O₃, sulfur hexafluoride, hexaflouro carbon and perfluorocarbons (PFCs), by 5.2 per cent of the 1990 levels of emissions. The UNFCC categorized the countries under Annexure I, II and non-Annexure countries, with their obligations for reduction of GHGs. In Annexure I, there are 41 countries, and there are 145 countries in the non-Annexure countries category. Most of the developed world is in Annexure I, and all developing and poor countries are in non-Annexure country list.

It is a market mechanism with technology interface. The mechanism works through emission reducing projects being implemented in countries where the emissions are high. Such developing countries or emerging markets are not only industrializing faster, thus emitting more GHGs, but also are suppliers to the firms in the developed, Annexure I countries. The developed country that has a better technology or clean technology may transfer cleaner technology to the project. The country or firm would be given carbon credits for investing in such projects, while the developing (GHG-emitting) country could receive funds and clean technology. Carbon credits are certificates issued to countries that make such efforts to reduce the GHGs, which are measured in units of Certified Emission Reduction (CER). Each CER is equivalent to 1 ton of CO₂ reduction. The rate was USD 5 per ton of CO₂ in International Emission Trading (IET) mechanism at the beginning of 2012, but crashed towards the end of the year. Countries can trade in the international CC (Carbon Credit) market. A developed country that has exceeded the emission levels has three options: cut down emissions, borrow CC, or buy carbon credits.

13.8 OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

There are opportunities for adaptation to climate change and win over it. The adaptation opportunities are many, if planned for adaptation to climate change than fighting with it or lamenting about it.

• Breed heat- and drought-resistant varieties of crop plants and varieties to adapt to a warmer planet.
• Select and breed flood-resistant crop plants to adapt to frequent floods.
• Genetic engineering in crop plants to CO₂ fertilization benefit from the increased levels of CO₂ in the atmosphere, thereby increasing the crop yields substantially.
• Switch crop varieties and crop species adapted to new climate zones.
• Develop high-efficiency irrigation to reduce water use and enhance yields.
• Hydroponics: cultivation of crop plants in water.
• Use fishes, microorganisms, algae, seaweeds, worms and insects for food.
• Raising the bridges and roads in flood-prone areas.
• Strengthening buildings to cope with the increasing number of hurricanes and earthquakes.
• Regulating developments in watersheds and wetlands and rehabilitating the areas to make them more functional.
• Efforts to conserve energy would throw open opportunities in energy-efficient and alternate energy using buildings, appliances, machinery and cities.
• Low carbon development pathway would (emitting less CO₂ into the atmosphere) open many new opportunities.

Any change will have risks, so also with climate change. The risks arise from an inability to adapt to the temperature increase and the resultant changes in climate, biodiversity and food production systems. Whether the higher risks of floods, hurricanes and heat waves are due to climate change or from unplanned developments and settlements is a debatable issue. Rising sea levels is projected as the major risk due to climate change, followed by the risk of heat waves. According to one estimate, 400,000 more people would die from heat by the end of this century than would have perished at the current temperature. However, the impact of heat can be mitigated to a large extent by planting more trees, using bioclimatic building designs, and by having more waterbodies. IPCC also estimates that the sea levels will increase by relatively manageable 18–59 cm by the end of the century and not by meters.

13.9 BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES IN THE ERA OF CLIMATE CHANGE

 

“The art of living is always to make a good thing out of a bad thing

– E. F. Schumacher, A Guide for the Perplexed”

Business firms can sell solutions to environmental problems, especially as solutions to climate change. There are mitigation measures and adaptation measures that can be offered by firms as products and services. For example, British Petroleum (BP) has developed carbon dioxide sequestration technology to fill the spaces in the lithosphere from where petroleum is extracted. Similarly there can be technology for eliminating other GHGs, and such technologies would offer competitive advantage to firms. Business will develop new technologies, markets, products and services in the warming world, as necessity is the mother of invention. One example of an already existing product, but which will be used more, is the air conditioners in the tropical countries to cool the office and homes with more energy efficiency. Hybrid solar and wind-powered cooling system offers a solution to higher temperature. This is a product to address at the symptom level; there would be products to address at the cause level as well.

There will be technology to lower the material use and energy consumption; there will be technology to reduce pollution and the pollution burdens; there will be technology to substitute products and there will be substitution of products with services. The last one is important for the optimum use of products, so that only less materials and energy are consumed in the first place. For example, instead of buying a carpet, we can buy a carpet service.

The response of plants and microorganisms to climate change is under study. Experiments on 1,634 species of plants have shown that flowering and leafing are affected by the climate change. Scientists estimate that world’s temperature has increased 0.8°C since 1900 and nearly 0.2°C per decade since 1979. Increasing temperature will make the plants flower faster and may enable to produce more food from more crops in rotation from the same piece of land. Agricultural technology needs to be adapted to such plant responses with appropriate seeds and post-harvest technologies. Drought-resistant varieties, flood-tolerant varieties, salinity-tolerant varieties, wind-resistant/lodging-resistant crop plants, pest-resistant crops, etc., are the breeding objectives in a warming planet to sustain food production.

Significant learning for management

Proactive companies have adopted climate change policies to remain in leadership position. Climate change is projected to make both positive and negative impacts, and both are relevant for business firms. Extreme weather events would impact the purchasing power of certain market territories, and companies with a strong customer base in such territories would be affected. There could be stricter laws in emissions, energy use, natural resource extraction, etc., and companies may have to contribute financially to the climate change mitigation measures. Already the companies have started doing their bit to compensate for their past contribution to GHG emission by funding mitigation measures. Humanitarian aid at the time of disasters is another load to be shared by the business firms to reconstruct their market territories.

Questions for discussion

1. The present climate change reports are a false alarm and it is only a natural variability in the long-term climate pattern. Make a critical assessment of this statement based on the latest IPCC report.
2. Analyze whether economic instruments or legal instruments are better suited to address climate change in a developing country context.
3. What are the business opportunities for the companies in your country from climate change?
4. What are the adaptation measures a business firm has to take in addressing climate change?
5. What are the sources of GHGs other than industries and transport?

Exercises for better understanding

1. Identify the sources of all GHGs emitted into the atmosphere in your town or city and assess the relative contribution from each source.
2. Watch the film “An inconvenient truth” and make a critique of the film.
3. Among the five “Es” of addressing the challenge of global warming (economic instruments, enforcement of environmental laws, education and awareness creation efforts, etc.), which one is more prevalent in your country? Make a list of the efforts and practices from each of these five Es actually observed.