Chapter 4

The Macroregional Geopolitics of Energy Security

Towards a New Energy World Order?

G. Cotella,  and S. Crivello     Interuniversity Department of Regional and Urban Studies and Planning (DIST), Politecnico di Torino, Turin, Italy

Abstract

The aim of this chapter is to build a geographical analysis of political relations, paths, risks and possibilities related to European energy security. Competition for energy is fierce: the availability of secure energy sources is essential for the proper functioning of the economy and energy consumption is expected to increase globally, driven by the economic growth of emerging economies. The chapter analyses strategic areas for Europe energy supply (specifically in terms of oil, natural gas and coal) which are crucial for the geopolitics of Europe. The study proposes some synthetic geographical and qualitative representations and scenarios of European energy geopolitics.

Keywords

Corridors; Energy security; Energy world order; Geopolitics; Spatial scenarios

4.1. Introduction

Energy sources are essential to the economic activity that sustains and improves the quality of life. As a consequence to this statement, energy plays a crucial role in international affairs (Klare, 2008a; Bradshaw, 2009; Favennec, 2011) and international relations with energy suppliers and issues of energy security are central nodes of geopolitical tensions and political agendas of countries all over the world (Goodstein, 2004; Roberts, 2004) and of the European Union (EU) (Youngs, 2009; Umbach, 2010; Bosse, 2011). A major cause of this situation is the mismatch between the location of resources and demand that leads to energy products representing the largest traded commodities worldwide. This poses a global challenge since the largest energy consuming economies (among which the EU, the United States and China) lack adequate indigenous resources to support their energy needs. Most of the energy resources are indeed concentrated in politically unstable areas such as the Middle East and, to a lesser extent, in other regions like Africa, Latin America, Russia and the Caspian Sea.
Such a situation is not new: historically, industrialised countries started expressing concerns over energy security mainly in terms of secure energy supply as early as in the first part of the 20th century. The so-called British fuel switch decision1 inextricably connected the security of oil supply with the conduct and preparation of several war events during World War I and II, thereby putting forward the crucial role of energy as a strategic asset in foreign policy and military conflicts. In spite of that, the availability of relatively cheap energy resources also played a major role in the reconstruction and development of Europe and Japan in the aftermath of World War II. This prolonged era of relative confidence in the availability of abundant and secure energy resources came to an abrupt end following the outbreak of the 1973 Arab–Israeli War.
This rapid overview highlights the evident geopolitical implications in terms of the interconnections between energy security and energy transition and, in turn, of main fuel switches. At the beginning of the 20th century, there has been a switch from coal – the fuel that propelled the Industrial Revolution in Great Britain and the world in the 19th century – to oil. After the oil crises, in the 1970s, there has been the gradual replacement of oil by natural gas, with differences in market dynamics (from world to regional markets). Then, the growing understanding of the challenges posed by climate change added a new dimension to the energy security concept, no longer limited to availability of energy resources at affordable prices but with environmental considerations in it.2 Increasing concerns about environmental protection and climate change also encouraged a transition from oil and natural gas to low-carbon energy sources, mostly in terms of renewable energy sources and with the controversial role of nuclear power.
In short, the energy system in the last century appears to be moving towards a decarbonisation and diversification of the energy portfolio with an increasing weight of low-carbon and locally available energy sources. This can be related to two major issues. On the one hand, the need for lessening one country’s overall dependence on a single energy source because of limited physical reserves, geopolitical risks, etc.; on the other hand, the rising environmental concerns about the sustainability of the current development and growth model. Aware of these issues, the present chapter focuses on the macroregional geopolitics of energy security,3 aiming as it is at picturing the future energy geopolitics of Europe, to be read within the broader energy world order. To do so, this chapter is articulated in four main parts. It starts from a discussion of the main storylines that characterise the international debate concerning energy security (eg, the global energy consumption growth, the depletion of energy resources, the role of energy technology, etc.), to then move to explore the potential futures of the energy world order. The role played by oil and natural gas and the geopolitical relations caused by the latter will be explored, together with the regions playing a key role in current geopolitical energy situation (ie, the Persian Gulf, the Caspian Sea and Africa). Lastly, the chapter proposes an evaluation of geopolitical tensions between different areas in the world, combining and representing the information, perspectives and key nodes for EU energy security through qualitative visual representations.

4.2. Energy Security in the International Debate

As already mentioned in various occasions throughout the volume, energy security is a complex issue involving political, economic, social-cultural, technological and environmental dimensions as well as various considerable threats (Vivoda, 2010; Winzer, 2012). Therefore, the analysis of its macroregional geopolitics requires a systemic and integrated approach based on an assessment of multidimensional elements, regarding political, techno-economic and sociocultural aspects of the energy system. The application of this approach also requires a better understanding of historical as well as contemporary debates on energy transition.
As a matter of fact, over the past years energy challenges and environmental concerns broadly have been discussed by the G8 Leaders, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), the United Nations as well as by a plethora of energy influential organisations.4 Moreover, apart from international organisations debates, there is growing number of literature widely researching energy trends, scenarios as well as climate stabilisation and low-carbon transitions, geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges, and technological, societal and environmental perspectives. As it will be briefly shown in the following subsections, the day-to-day energy and climate change issues have become the focus of increasing international attention for a number of reasons.

4.2.1. The Global Energy Consumption Growth and the Depletion of Energy Resources

First of all, the global energy consumption grows quickly: the global fuel consumption was increasing from 280,622 quadrillion Btu in 1980 to almost double of the energy consumption which had reached 506,853 quadrillion Btu in 2010. Fossil fuels such as oil (34.5%), coal (29%) and natural gas (23.1%) continue to dominate as the main sources of energy produced and consumed worldwide. The shares of nuclear energy and hydroelectricity are only 5.4% and 6.5%, respectively, but the share of renewables while increasing from 0.1% in 1980 to 1.5% in 2010 is still limited (EIA, 2013).
Furthermore, available long-term scenarios from international organisations show that the global energy consumption will continue to grow due to the economic development, urbanisation and population increase (IPCC, 2000, 2008; UNDP, 2001; UNEP, 2006; IEA, 2004). According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), over the next 25 years, the world population is projected to grow to almost 9 billion people. The global energy demand will increase approximately 100% over the period 2010–2050.
Within this dramatic scenario, the EU is one of the largest energy consuming regions in the world. Over recent decades, energy consumption in European countries (EU27) rose from 71,747 in 1980 to 83,824 quadrillion Btu in 2010 with petroleum and gas contribution 31,505 quadrillion Btu (18% of world’s oil consumption) and 20,935 (17.9% of world’s gas consumption) and total energy consumption is forecast to increase by 20% by 2030.
When coming to the availability of energy resources, on the other hand, the world reserves of primary energy and raw materials are, obviously, limited in size. According to recent estimates, the reserves will last another 218 years for coal, 41 years for oil and 63 years for natural gas, under a business-as-usual scenario (EIA, 2013). The petroleum age began about 150 years ago. Easily available energy has supported major advances in agriculture, industry, transportation, and indeed many diverse activities valued by humans. Now world petroleum and natural gas supplies have peaked and their supplies will slowly decline over the next 40–45 years until depleted. Although small amounts of petroleum and natural gas will remain underground, it will be energetically and economically impossible to extract them.

4.2.2. Energy Security Threats

Second, a major topic on many political agendas is security of supply. This challenge has risen in importance on the international policy agenda due to growing dependence of industrialised economies on imported energy consumption and the increased frequency of disruptions in supply. For instance, Europe currently imports approximately 55% of its energy and might reach 70% energy import in the next 20–30 years. It is expected in 2030 that Europe will be importing 85% of its gas, 60% of its coal and 95% of its oil (EC, 2006). Most of the imported energy resources come from countries with geopolitical risks, unstable or potentially unstable political, economic and social situations. Furthermore around 75% of the world’s proven oil reserves are located in eight countries (Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Canada, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and Russia) and almost half of the natural gas in three of them (Russia, Iran and Turkmenistan) (EIA, 2013).
Additionally, NATO defines geopolitical risks with potential government decisions to suspend deliveries because of deliberate policies, war, civil strife and terrorism. Energy industries in supplier countries are subject to extensive government interference, and do not function in a competitive market framework. For instance, some nations have prohibited foreign investment in their energy sectors, while others have demanded a greater share of control or revenues (eg, Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan). NATO also stresses that energy will increasingly be used as a political weapon. A good example of this is the Russian–Ukrainian conflict, which shows how energy rich countries can force other poor energy countries. In addition, security of supply is threatened by political instability of exporting regions where civil wars, local conflicts and terrorism have often been cause of temporary damage of energy facilities and infrastructures (Laurmann, 1992; Bentley, 2002; Correljé and van der Linde, 2006; Bilgin, 2009; Toft et al., 2010).

4.2.3. Environmental Pressure and Long-Term Targets

Third, using fossil fuels still has a massive impact on the environment and the climate. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report indicates that the 20th century saw a considerable and sudden increase in global temperature when compared to the last 1000 years (IPCC, 2000). The measured temperature rise is partly attributed to the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) from fossil fuels combustion (Soytas and Sari, 2009; Acaravci and Ozturk, 2010; Pao and Tsai, 2010; Lean and Smyth, 2010; Apergis and Payne, 2010; Arouri et al., 2012). The emission of carbon dioxide gas (CO2) has increased significantly and this negative trend continues increasing every year since 1900. The global CO2 emission has risen from 530 million tonnes in 1900 to 8700 million tonnes in 2010 with contribution of China (share 29%), the United States (16%), the EU (EU27) (11%), India (6%) and the Russian Federation (5%), followed by Japan (4%). According to IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) with current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices, global GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades. IPCC SRES scenarios predict a 25–90% increase of GHG emissions in 2030 relative to 2000.
Beyond increasing GHG emission levels, widespread impacts are expected on food and water supplies, weather patterns, ecosystem stability and, of course, energy production itself. Exceptional natural disasters could delay the exploration of oil and natural gas fields, and more extreme weather situations could force the shutdown of oil production in the affected regions. Preventing that harm will require a fundamental transformation of the energy system. Clearly energy transition changes are likely to be expensive. However, studies have concluded that ignoring the problem will cost even more. The Stern Review, for example, concluded that, in case of inaction, the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year (Stern Review, 2006). The same study estimates the cost of GHG emissions mitigation to be between 1% and 2% of GDP per year. Thus in the UN Climate Change Conference, it was stressed that it is mandatory to put in place a robust policy mechanism to achieve the stabilisation of GHGs in the atmosphere.

4.2.4. Energy Policies and Beyond

As a shown above, the stable energy supply and climate change are clearly one of the most difficult challenges faced by the energy sector, now, and for the decades to come.
As a mentioned before, the world continue to consume more energy as well as produce more CO2 emissions, at the same time geopolitical situation around energy producing countries keeps tense. It is, obviously, energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies as well as change in consumer behaviour will play a very important role in reaching low-carbon societies. And as any measures there are urgent needs to create energy policy. Many countries have already implemented their energy or low-carbon policy. Despite these initiatives, current efforts are still not enough to reach low-carbon societies. Many new long-term scenarios show that new and more radical energy and climate policies are needed to avoid humanity becoming locked into carbon-intensive development paths (IPCC, 2007; EIA, 2013; see also Laconte, 2011).
At the same time energy policies need to be placed in a broader context encompassing urban, transportation, agricultural, technological and societal policies. For instance, cities are hubs of innovation and creativity and will be central to achieving a sustainable future. An increasing number of initiatives limiting GHG emissions in cities in industrialised countries are already in place. These initiatives include the deployment of low-carbon mass transportation systems such as bus rapid transit systems, car-sharing arrangements, cycling infrastructure, support for public transport, solar thermal technologies for hot water supply, energy efficiency projects for public buildings and integrated waste management.

4.3. The Macroregional Geopolitics of Energy Security

As mentioned above, the availability of secure energy sources is today essential for the proper functioning of any economy (Klare, 2008a). Due to this reason, competition for energy is extreme today (Peters, 2004; Klare, 2008b). Whereas in the aftermaths of World War II, core industrial countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan accounted for a large share of global energy consumption, today a number of ‘new’ emerging countries are driving further increases in the demand for energy sources (Klare, 2008a). According to the EU-funded POLINARES project,5 new actors such as China, India and Brazil now play an important role on the international stage both as engines of demand and also leading producers of minerals and energy resources. Russia and other countries, which emerged from the break-up of the Soviet Union, are also significant forces in the oil, gas and mineral markets. However, a pivotal role is played by China (Cornelius and Story, 2007). In 1990, China accounted for 8% of global energy consumption, while the United States accounted for 24% and Europe for 20%. With the growth of Chinese economy, the situation has changed radically: in 2010, China surpassed the United States becoming the most important country in terms of energy consumption. It is easy to figure that China will find more and more difficult, in the future, to get further energy supplies. Chinese policy makers will probably try to raise both local energy production and control over external energy sources (Li, 2003).
One should notice how most of the energy used in the world is still provided by fossil fuels (oil, coal and natural gas): oil is the predominant source (33% of total energy consumption), followed by coal (27%) and natural gas (24%). Renewable sources, with an average annual growth of 1.8% since 1990, currently provide about 13% of global energy consumption. Nuclear energy provides about 6% (EIA, 2013). A growing number of facts and figures suggest that the ‘easy oil’ era will be replaced by a ‘difficult oil’ era (Roberts, 2004). The marginal cost of oil production, despite being under a prolonged period of relatively low price for oil, is expected to increase: every new oil barrel added to the global reserve will be more difficult and more costly than the previous one, according to scholars. In fact, every new barrel will be extracted deeper in the ocean, in less accessible places and in dangerous spaces, for example, because of possible wars (Roberts, 2004; Jojarth, 2008) and similar scenarios that will most probably characterise all other energy sources, such as carbon, natural gas and uranium (Goldthau and Witte, 2010).
Moreover, it should be stressed that the world is changing from a regime characterised by liberal market principles to one in which state capitalism is more prevalent than in the 1990s. It is widely recognised that the world is currently in transition from a political and economic regime in which liberal market values were prevalent, even if not dominant, to one in which State Capitalist values appear to be gaining more adherents. A consequence may be that energy and mineral prices will be volatile, that markets will be fragmented or that partial supply interruptions will occur for some actors, even though there will be no absolute shortage of resources. This transition is occurring at the same time as demand for energy and mineral resources is rising. The result is a greater degree of unpredictability and volatility in international commodity markets.
As mentioned, policy makers and business managers will keep on building strategies based on the idea that fossil fuels will still be the main energy sources for the planet for several decades. In the words of the Energy Information Administration (EIA, 2013), it is expected that in 2030 fossil fuels will provide about 87% of the world’s energy needs. According to these scenarios, most countries will still rely on traditional fuels, with a consequent increase in the competition for the control of unexploited energy reserves (Klare, 2001; Bradshaw, 2009). As stated by the POLINARES project, the increasing interdependence of the world’s nations in the context of energy and minerals is likely to cause tensions and conflicts that may undermine future global peace and economic development.

4.3.1. Towards a New Energy World Order

Building on the above debate, many scholars currently think that with the issue of energy security becoming more and more crucial, concepts as ‘power’ and ‘influence’ in the international system will change their meaning (see, eg, Favennec, 2011). In this sense, the scientific debates use the expression ‘new energy world order’ (Klare, 2008a, p. 7) as opposed to an ‘old’ energy world order in which each country occupies a place in a hypothetical hierarchy of States according to its endowment in terms of nuclear missiles, warships and soldiers (Cohen, 1991). Within this ‘new’ energy world order, the position of a country in the global ranking seems to be increasingly determined by the possession or control of vast oil and natural gas reserves, or by the capability to mobilise money and relations in order to acquire energy resources from the outside. In this sense, energy surplus or deficit has significant and complex geopolitical and economic implications.6
The importance of this topic is also reflected in the field of social research, with various projects that examine the global challenges faced with respect to access to oil, gas and mineral resources and propose solutions for the various policy actors by combining theoretical and empirical analyses from a wide range of disciplines as political science, economics, geology, engineering, technology, law and security studies. The results shows, in brief, that countries with energy deficit will be progressively forced to pay higher prices for imported fuels, competing at the same time with each other in order to secure supplies, ie, to acquire energy sources from countries characterised by energy surplus. On the contrary, energy exporting countries will gain more and more from growths in the cost of energy.7 Dynamics like these are among the main causes of the fortune of countries like Russia, Dubai and Abu Dhabi (see Acuto, 2010).
An additional element that characterises the mentioned ‘new energy world’ is the difference between democratic areas (such as the EU) and State Capitalist governments (such as China). More in particular, democratic states generally aim at enforcing upon State capitalist governments specific policy criteria and principles to encourage cooperation in the exploitation of natural resources, that do not fit the values and priorities of the latter, in so doing generating tension in political and economic relations.
Within the global energy order, both energy-exporting and energy-importing countries develop strategies in order to improve their position with respect to actual or potential competitors (Helm, 2002; Peters, 2004). This is evident when looking at the construction of networks and formal/informal agreements between exporting countries, institutions and organisations grouping energy importing countries, and hybrid forms of regionalisation gathering both exporting and importing countries (such as the strategic alliance between China and Russia in order to limit the American influence in Asian energy affairs).8 A clear sign of this reorganisation may be found in the ongoing nationalisation of energy companies and energy resources in many countries.9 Of course, energy operators in the private sector still play a significant role, as testified by their colossal profits in recent years, but strategic decisions are more and more in the hands of national governments (Behr, 2010). The most striking example of the tendency towards resource nationalism is probably the one of Vladimir Putin, who led the Kremlin towards national control of oil and gas recourses and who transformed Gazprom, the Russian national enterprise with a monopolistic position in the field of natural gas, in one of the richest and most powerful energy companies of the world (Stern, 2005; Champion, 2006). Also, the case of Japan, a country characterised by a huge energy deficit, testifies to the tendency towards resource nationalism. In fact, Japan supports national energy companies in the seek for secure oil supplies overseas (Hisane, 2006). On their hand some European countries as France and Italy have pursued a different strategy, promoting the development of strategic connection with energy-exporting countries, particularly in Africa, where it is possible to take advantage of sociocultural and economic networks with former colonies (Klare, 2008a).
This ‘resource nationalism’ is so diffused that it may be conceptualised as a phenomenon echoing the old ‘arms race’. Control over oil, natural gas and other energy resources is considered crucial, and in this sense geopolitical relations are evolving according to the logics of energy security (Behr, 2010; Bradshaw, 2009; Favennec, 2011; Goldthau and Witte, 2010).

4.3.2. The Role of Oil in the World and in Europe

Despite global energy policies that are aiming at reducing oil consumption and promoting the differentiation of energy sources (EIA, 2013), oil is still the main energy source in the world (33% of the total energy consumption in 2012). In Europe oil is the main fuel, accounting for 35% of energy consumption (compared to 24% of natural gas; see Chapter 2; see also BP, 2013). In the 1950s, with the economic boom of Western countries, about 2000 billion barrels of crude oil have been produced (source: BP, 2013). New explorations and the constant discovery of new deposits allowed, with time, impressive leaps in terms of oil production (10 million barrels per day in 1950, 25 million in 1962, 50 million in 1971, 75 million at the end of the last century and 86 million in 2012; EIA, 2010; BP, 2013). Particularly, between 1950 and 1970 several giant reserves were discovered in the northern area of Alaska, in the area of the North Sea between the United Kingdom and Norway, and in the Gulf of Guinea in Africa.
However, in the last decades of the 20th century there had been a slowdown in the discovery of new fields and, since the early 1970s, starting with the 1973 energy crisis, concerns about the limits of oil stocks – being a scarce and exhaustible resource – began to rise. Various experts began to question the capability of the energy industry to ensure increases in oil production (see, above all, the famous and controversial ‘The Limits to Growth’, 1972) and many scholars raised the alarm on the fact that, with similar figures, the ‘peak’ of the extraction was quickly approaching (Curtis, 2009; Hall and Day, 2009).10
Oil is an energy source characterised by high territoriality: it is inextricably linked to the places where crude oil is extracted and where transport infrastructures are located. Extraction sites are geographically concentrated in areas which are not rarely distant from places of consumption, and for this reason oil has to be moved over long distances through different countries. The management of oil security, therefore, involves a number of countries and places, including extraction, transit and consumption sites. According to British Petroleum (BP, 2013), more than 50% of the oil reserves in the world are currently located in the Middle East. The largest shares of reserves are located in Saudi Arabia (15.9%), Iran (9.4%), Iraq (9%), Kuwait (6.1%) and the United Arab Emirates (5.9%). Outside of the Middle East only Venezuela (17.8%), Canada (10.4%) and Russia (5.2%) possess relevant reserves (BP, 2013).
Europe is characterised by high needs of oil: the external demand in 2012 has been of 639 million tonnes (EC, 2013), and oil imports come from a large number of countries. At the same time, European oil production is pretty low, that is about 185 million tonnes in 2012 (EC, 2013). Indeed, as already mentioned in Chapter 2, Europe may be considered a ‘single’ market for many perspectives, characterised for example by common environmental laws. However, European countries undertake relations with different external suppliers and by different oil transport systems (Fig. 4.1). The EU mainly acquires oil from five areas: the North Sea (particularly Norway), Russia, the Caspian area (Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan), Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq) and North Africa (Libya and Nigeria). Geographical proximity is therefore crucial in the European oil supply scenario, but it has to be mentioned that about 12.8% of European imports come from two distant areas: Venezuela and West Africa (EC, 2013). Offshore deposits in the North Sea belong to Norway, the United Kingdom and Denmark. Oil extracted from the North Sea is for two-thirds destined to Europe, and for one-third to North America. Crude oil refined in Norway, the United Kingdom and Denmark is brought to Europe via undersea pipelines or ships. Supplies from the North Sea are considered highly secure because of the stability of the European market and because of the good relations between European countries (Correlje and Van der Linde, 2006), but actually oil reserves in the North Sea are scarce (15 billion barrels).11
image
Figure 4.1 Main oil corridors in the world to and from Europe. Reproduced from: Gerboni, R., Grosso, D., Schranz, L., 2014. REACCESS EU Project Outcomes Elaboration. Politecnico of Turin.
Every year, Europe imports about 150 million tonnes of oil from the Middle East. Oil imports from this area used to be higher in the past, but with time – as a consequence of the various oil shocks experienced during the years – European countries have diversified oil suppliers, increasing imports from the North Sea, the Caspian area and Russia. Similarly, the yearly imports from North Africa amount to about 100 million tonnes, particularly from Libya and Algeria. European relations with these two countries were tense in the past, especially in the aftermath of the colonial era. Relations are today controversial and oil supplies can’t be taken for granted (Correlje and Van der Linde, 2006; Dabashi, 2012). Oil from the Middle East and North Africa (the MENA region) arrives in Europe mainly through pipelines running through the coasts of Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco. From Morocco, oil is transported by ship, as there are no pipelines crossing the Mediterranean.12
Russia and the Caspian Sea countries provide about 330 million tonnes of oil every year. Given current estimated reserves of about 120 billion barrels, production is expected to be assured for at least 30 years. Europe is the main importer for this area, followed by China and United States (each one importing about 20 million tonnes of oil every year according to BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2013). It has to be mentioned that trade relations between Russia and Europe developed after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In the Soviet Union the extractive and the energy industries used to be highly integrated between Russia and the other countries of the area (Soviet zone of influence). But with the economic crises that characterised the Soviet transition towards a liberal market economy, Russia promoted direct exports to Europe, bypassing the Soviet zone of influence (Champion, 2006). This trend has determined the rise of Russian energy industry but also geopolitical tensions between former Soviet countries, as it is particularly evident in the case of natural gas (Stern, 2005; Aalto, 2008). Oil from Russia and Caucasian area gets in Europe through various corridors, and particularly:
• The Druzhba Pipeline (also known as the ‘friendship pipeline’ and ‘Comecon pipeline’) is one of the longest in the world, running through Russia, Ukraine, Hungary, Poland and Germany, with an approximate length of 4000 km. Originally, it was intended to provide Russian oil to satellite Soviet zone of influence. Today, it mainly allows the movement of Russian and Kazakh oil towards Europe.
• The Baltic Pipeline System, a Russian oil transport system operated by the oil pipeline company Transneft. The Baltic Pipeline System transports oil from the Timan-Pechora region, West Siberia and Urals-Volga regions to Primorsk oil terminal at the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland. The pipeline has been completed in 2001 and reached full design capacity in 2006.
• The Sever Pipeline (also known as Kstovo–Yaroslavl–Kirishi–Primorsk Pipeline) is an oil product pipeline in north-west Russia inaugurated in 2008. It transports diesel fuel EN-590. The pipeline is owned and operated by Transnefteproduct, a subsidiary of Transneft. The 1056 km pipeline runs from Kstovo through Yaroslavl and Kirishi to Primorsk, Leningrad Oblast.
As mentioned, under the Soviet Union Caucasian states used to maintain direct connections with Russia, with Moscow that controlled Caspian energy reserves and the pipeline networks were constructed so as to link all the energy-rich countries to Russia. Although Russian hegemony in the area is still visible, Caucasian states have partly opened their markets to direct commercial relations with the EU. The Soviet Union’s demise, in fact, opened the region to external actors allowing foreign companies to invest in exploiting energy reserves and constructing alternative pipeline routes to transport gas and oil from the region to the international markets. As mentioned, Caspian oil reserves are low when compared to those in the Middle East; what makes Caspian energy resources so significant is that they offer Western buyers the opportunity to diversify energy imports away from the nearly monopolistic energy supplies of the Middle East and Russia.13

4.3.3. The Role of Natural Gas in the World and in Europe

Natural gas consumption quickly rose during the last decades: currently, global consumption surpasses 3000 billion m3 per year, that is, 24% of global energy sources (EIA, 2013). Demand for natural gas is expected to increase in the future, and current reserves – about 180,000 billion m3 – will assure global supplies for about 60 years (BP, 2013). Natural gas is today a crucial element of the energy mix. Natural gas is employed all over the world for the production of electricity, heating, as a raw material in many industries, and as fuel in the transport sector. The high energy efficiency of natural gas, together with the discussed fears for oil depletion, promotes the use of natural gas in many countries (Victor et al., 2006; Selley, 2013).
The distribution of natural gas extraction sites is even more geographically concentrated than in the case of oil: Iran, Russia and Qatar control about half of the world reserves, while the other eight countries (Turkmenistan, the United States, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, Nigeria, Algeria and Australia), as a whole, control a further 21%. With the exceptions of Venezuela, the United States and Australia (controlling together 9.5% of world reserves) all these countries are located in Africa, in the Persian Gulf area and in the former Soviet Union (BP, 2013).
Natural gas presents tight linkages with territorial proximity, even more than oil. Natural gas is too voluminous to be moved by other means than pipelines. As it will be discussed later, the main challenge with natural gas corridors is to maintain relatively constant flows of supplies (Victor et al., 2006; Aalto, 2008). In the case of countries non connected through pipelines – for example because separated by oceans – the only possibility is to import natural gas in liquid form (liquefied natural gas), involving complex and expensive processes of gasification and cooling (Klare, 2008a).
As far as the EU is concerned, consumption of natural gas accounted for 24% in the total energy mix in 2012, a figure fully in line with global trends. Specifically, the EU consumed 520 billion m3, with an increase of 7.2% with respect to 2011 (EC, 2013). Also in the case of natural gas, Europe strongly depends on external supplies: with the exceptions of Netherlands and Denmark, all the other countries are net importers (EC, 2013). Europe imports every year more than 330 billion m3 of natural gas via pipelines and 50 billion m3 in liquid form. About 75% of imported natural gas comes from three countries: Russia, Norway and Algeria. More than 80% of natural gas exported from Russia and Algeria is directed to Europe, as the majority of natural gas comes from Norway.
Natural gas arrives in Europe through three different paths (Fig. 4.2):
• From North Africa (Algeria and Libya) through four pipelines: Transmed (connecting Algeria and Italy through Tunisia), Greenstream (connecting Libya and Italy); Maghreb (connecting Algeria with Spain via Morocco) and Medgas (connecting Algeria with Spanish coasts).
• From Northern Europe through pipelines from the North Sea (Langeled Gas Pipeline) connecting Norway, the United Kingdom and Netherlands. Central Europe is also bypassed by pipelines Tenp and Transitgas, carrying natural gas from Netherlands and from the North Sea to Switzerland and Italy.
• From Russia through a number of routes. Nord Stream pipeline, with a total length of 1.224 km and a carrying capacity of about 27.5 billions of m3 per year (to be amplified in the future) connects Russia and Germany through the Baltic sea, bypassing Ukraine. Yamal runs from Russia to Germany through Belarus and Poland, with a total length of 4200 km. Gas runs from Russia to Austria, Slovenia and Italy. Finally, Blue Stream carries natural gas to Turkey via the Black Sea. Two more pipelines transport natural gas in Turkey from Central Asia: the corridor between Iran and Turkey, and the Baku-Tblisi-Erzurum pipeline.
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Figure 4.2 Main gas corridors in the world to and from Europe. Reproduced from: Gerboni, R., Grosso, D., Schranz, L., 2014. REACCESS EU Project Outcomes Elaboration. Politecnico of Turin.
Recently, the EU is promoting a differentiation of natural gas suppliers in order to reduce energy dependency from Russia. International relations with Russia are, in fact, rather complex,14 and different from other external suppliers which are considered ‘reliable partners’ and which agreed with the EU’s well-defined economic and contractual frameworks (Youngs, 2009). In Europe, Russia is often considered an ‘unreliable’ natural gas supplier, particularly because of Russian ‘economic menaces’ concerning gas exports. On the one hand, European countries are trying to promote alternative ways to acquire natural gas, particularly by developing routes directed to countries other than Russia. On the other hand, Russia has tried to limit the strategic power of transit countries, as Ukraine and Belarus by constructing new pipeline routes (two new sections of North Stream, ended in 2011, and South Stream). North Stream and South Stream may be interpreted as explicit projects aimed at enhancing Russian monopolistic position in the provision on natural gas for Europe (Champion, 2006). With the construction of North Stream, Gazprom will distribute natural gas directly in Germany, Netherlands and in other European countries without interference from Ukraine. Similarly, South Stream (which runs from Russia to Burgas, in Bulgaria, and then to Austria, Italy, Greece, Hungary and Serbia) has decreased the economic feasibility of Nabucco, a pipeline financed by the EU and the United States which is expected to run side by side with South Stream, providing natural gas from Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkmenistan, and not from Russia.

4.3.4. The Role of Coal in the World and in Europe

In the early 1900s coal supplied about 95% of primary energy. Even if the use of oil and gas reduced drastically the share of coal, it remains (with 27% of the total) the second major source (after oil) of primary energy.
According to IEA, coal production has more than doubled since 1980 and coal could replace oil to become again the most important source of energy (IEA, 2013). Thanks to the enormous reserves of coal and thanks to the increasing demand for energy, the use of coal could increase in the future, ensuring security of supply with reduced geopolitical risks. Coal and lignite are, in fact, widely available: proven reserves are sufficient for the next 109 years at current rates of production (BP, 2013). Coal is also widely distributed around the world with particularly large reserves in the United States (27.6%), Russia (18.2%) and China (13.3%). Big reserves are also held by India, Australia, South Africa, Kazakhstan and Ukraine (Fig. 4.3).
image
Figure 4.3 Global hard coal and lignite reserves. Reproduced from: www.bgrcorp.com.
In the coming years, coal demand is expected to remain relatively stable in Russia and Japan and to grow in the United States, India and China. China, in particular, is expected to consume ever-increasing quantities as it struggles to keep up with rising demand for electrical power. As many as 1000 new coal-fired power plants are expected to come on line in China over the next 25 years. India, too, is expected to build many more coal-fired plants in order to satisfy its growing need for electricity. For most of these countries, a pronounced reliance on coal can be explained by its presumed abundance and relatively low cost. Important exporting countries for hard coal are Indonesia, Australia, Russia, the United States, Colombia and South Africa, who together accounted for around 87% of all coal exports in 2012. The top coal importing countries are China, Japan, India, South Korea, Taiwan, Germany, the United Kingdom, Russia, Turkey, Italy and Spain, together accounting for 80% of the coal trade.
Trends in coal use differ from region to region. In Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, coal consumption declined slightly since 2000; in the EU it decreased of about 14%. In contrast, coal demand in developing countries has increased dramatically. Growth in non–OECD countries from 2000 to 2012 amounted to 2.3 Gtce, (+126%). The main driver was China, where coal consumption increased from 1.0 Gtce in 2000 to 2.8 Gtce in 2012. Thus, China has accounted for 83% of the growth in world coal consumption; India accounted for 12%.
On an energy basis, the European Union is the world’s fourth largest consumer of coal after China, the United States and India. In the EU, hard coal production has declined from Europe’s mature production centres whilst volumes of imported coal have grown significantly. Major coal consuming countries in the region are Germany, Poland, the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Italy, France, Greece, Spain, the Netherlands, Bulgaria and Romania. In 2012, Germany was the largest coal importer in the EU, followed by the UK, Italy, Spain, France, the Netherlands and Poland. In 2012, 17% of all coal exports were destined for EU member states. Leading exporters to the EU are Russia (26.1%), Colombia (23.9%), the United States (18.1%), Australia (8.9%), South Africa (8%) and Indonesia (5.2%). Imported hard coal makes a significant contribution to the EU’s security of energy supply and offers a competitive fuel which can be easily and safely transported and stocked. Coal offers a much higher level of supply security: the reserves and resources of coal and lignite that are most significant together account for 94% of the EU’s remaining potential. Hard coal, both produced and imported, is much less expensive than imported oil or gas and the majority of EU member states enjoy the benefits of coal.
The environmental impacts associated with coal are now fairly understood. Inevitably, coal mining interferes with the environment; however, ecological impacts are increasingly well addressed during mine planning, operation and landscape restoration. The maritime transport of coal is safer than before and it can be easily stocked in large quantities. Emissions from coal use, such as sulphur dioxide, NOx and dust, can be almost eliminated by commercially available pollution control equipment. In the EU, most coal-fired power plants are now equipped with highly efficient flue gas desulphurisation. For some years, the environmental debate has focused on global climate protection. The strategy to reduce CO2 emissions from coal use begins with more efficient state of the art power plants, assumes the further development of power plant technology to reach higher efficiencies and leads ultimately to power plants fitted with CO2 capture and storage. Installations with CO2 capture should be commercially available by 2020, reducing CO2 emissions from coal-fired plants by around 90%. Central to the wide use of this technology is an investment friendly legal framework and public support for a CO2 transport and storage infrastructure.

4.4. European Energy Geopolitics: Key Regions

After having introduced the concept of new energy world order, its features and the way the EU and its countries position within the latter, it is worth analysing in detail the main strategic areas for EU energy supply. These strategic areas possess meaningful reserves – oil and/or natural gas – which are crucial in world geopolitics. The strategic areas are the Persian Gulf, the Caspian Sea area, and North-western Africa.15

4.4.1. The Persian Gulf

The Persian Gulf area includes the coasts of Oman, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran. According to British Petroleum, in 2012 the Persian Gulf possessed about 800 billion barrels of oil in proven reserves. To put it differently, this relatively small geographical area possess almost half of the world’s oil reserves (BP, 2013). As discussed above, oil reserves are concentrated mainly in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates; Iran and Qatar also possess huge reserves of natural gas. Some parts of the Persian Gulf are characterised by great instability because of wars, ethnic-religious conflicts and several disputes, such as those concerning Iran’s nuclear programme (Merrill, 2007; Barnes and Jaffe, 2006).16 With the exception of Iran and Iraq, the Countries of the area are grouped in the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (CCASG).
Europe imports a respectable share of oil from the Gulf – approximately 15% of the oil that Europe needs (EC, 2013) – but the main external country with a major political and military influence in the area is the United States and it is not a coincidence that the United States tends to interpret any operation carried out in the area as a potential national or world threat (Klare, 2008a). However, signs of resistance and opposition to American influence over the area occurred cyclically in recent years. It is worth mentioning the position of Abdullah, the Saudi King, in March 2007, who considered illegal the US military occupation of Iraq.17 The Saudi King affirmed that Arab countries would have to cooperate, all together, to solve the region’s problems and to avoid the Americans determining their fate. Moreover, energy reserves in the Persian Gulf are so large that several other countries – Russia, China, India and Japan in particular – are trying to expand their influence here (Barnes and Jaffe, 2006). There is no doubt that growing economic relations with China, Japan, Russia and other countries are in line with the words of the Saudi King and with the attempt to erode the role of the Americans in the Gulf; this process of diversification will intensify, probably, in the future (Goldthau and Witte, 2010).

4.4.2. The Caspian Sea

In the last two decades, the Caspian Sea basin has increased its importance as supplier of oil and natural gas for the world markets: this area, with large untapped oil fields, has been defined as the new ‘Great Game’ (Gokay, 2006) because of the international competition for the control of its strategic resources. At the time of the Soviet Union only two independent states, the Soviet Union and Iran, faced the Caspian Sea basin. Today there are three new ones: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan possess large reserves of oil, and Turkmenistan is characterised by large natural gas reserves. According to the US Department of Energy (DOE, 2010), this area will have an increase in oil production of about 171% between 2005 and 2030 (from 2.1 to 5.7 million barrels per day). In addition, Turkmenistan is the fourth largest gas exporter in the world (after Iran, Russia and Qatar) and it has about 17.5 trillion m3 of gas reserves (BP, 2013).
As mentioned above, before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Central Asian and Caucasian states were strictly controlled by Russia: oil and gas were always consumed within the borders of the USSR, and foreign companies were not allowed to operate in this area. Most of the decisions concerning oil platforms, refineries and pipelines were taken by Soviet planners (Gokay, 2001). This scenario changed in the aftermaths of the formation of the independent states of the Caspian Basin in 1991: these countries, generally lacking technical and financial capacities to fully exploit their oil and gas reserves started to cooperate with Western companies in order to break free from Russian control. They allowed foreign companies to extract national oil and gas obtaining, in a few years, foreign direct investments for billions of dollars (Sukhanov, 2005).
The hydrocarbons of the Caspian Sea basin are crucial for many geopolitical actors. Russia traditionally controlled the Caspian Sea basin since the beginning of the 19th century. Currently, United States, Europe and China consider the Caspian Basin an attractive alternative to the Persian Gulf (Gokay, 2006). Most of the existing pipelines in the region have been built by the Soviets during the Cold War years. In recent years, the United States promoted the construction of alternative export routes bypassing the Russian territory; for example, the United States, Azerbaijan and Georgia in 2006 completed the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, which runs from Baku (Azerbaijan) to Ceyhan (Turkey) avoiding the Bosporus.
The European Commission hopes that the Caspian basin will help to reduce European dependence on Russia (Gokay, 2006). European companies have a substantial presence in some of the largest reserves of the area (for example, Eni and British Gas hold a significant amount of reserves in Karachaganak; Eni, Total, Royal Dutch Shell and Inpex play a key role in the consortium managing Kashagane’s fields). European companies are also interested in the construction of pipelines carrying Caspian oil to Europe without passing through the Russia Federation: several European consortia participated in designing corridors, as in the cases of the Nabucco project, or White Stream project, which should transport natural gas from Turkmenistan to Central Europe, running through Ukraine.
It has to be considered that the pipeline strategy is crucial for the Kremlin, too. In past decades, Russia has been fast in realising new corridors in the former USSR countries, like in the case of the Caspian pipeline (Caspian Pipeline Consortium) linking, since 2001, Tangiz (Kazakhstan) to Novorossiisk (Russia). Russia, by the means of Gazprom and other national companies, signed agreements with main Caspian energy producers and with transit countries in order to manage energy exports directed to Europe (Gokay, 2006).

4.4.3. Africa

Africa is characterised by an abundance of raw materials in a deeply divided continent, with often politically weak countries which are exposed to international exploitation (Watts, 2008). Africa owns some of the largest unexploited oil and gas deposits of the world, as well as extensive reserves of bauxite, cobalt, chromium, copper, platinum, titanium and uranium, mines of gold and diamonds. Because of the world’s increasing thirst for energy, Africa is the battleground for a fierce competition between a large number of transnational corporations and countries (Carmody and Owusu, 2007). Some experts argue that African oil will be one of the cornerstones of the energy issue in the coming decades (Ferguson, 2006). International interest for energy resources in Africa is so high that some scholars speak about a new ‘scramble for Africa’ (Lee, 2006).
With about 10 million barrels per day in 2012, Africa produces about 10% of global oil production (BP, 2013). According to BP, Africa possesses about 126 billion barrels of oil in proven reserves, nearly 10% of the world’s total (BP, 2013). Thanks to the discovery of new deposits and the intensive exploitation of existing ones, Africa is the continent with highest growth in oil production, while Africa is also the continent with the lowest level of oil consumption (3.5% of world consumption in 2012). Oil production in Africa is concentrated in the Mediterranean coast (particularly in Algeria and Libya) and, in the last decades, also in the Gulf of Guinea. The oil extracted in this region is considered of excellent quality and the majority of the new fields are located off-shore. Oil extracted off-shore is characterised by lower transport costs. It is also easier to guarantee the security of off-shore sites because they are isolated by political events on the mainland (Ferguson, 2006).
From a geopolitical point of view, Africa is considered by the United States an ideal energy supplier, and African oil represents about 25% of US imports (Carmody and Owusu, 2007). During the last decade also China’s dependence on African oil has increased: in 2012, China imported 46 million tonnes of oil from African countries; in 2006, Angola became the main supplier of China’s foreign oil, surpassing Saudi Arabia (Carmody and Owusu, 2007). Chinese national companies, like China National Off-shore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and Sinopec, purchased rights for the exploration and exploitation of oil and gas in Angola, Nigeria, Sudan, Gabon, Congo Brazzaville, Equatorial Guinea, Mauritania, Niger, Kenya, Algeria, Libya and Somalia.
European countries are key players in the exploitation of African resources because of geographical proximity, because of old connections dating back to colonial times, and because of the desire to diversify energy suppliers, ie, to weaken the role of Russia as the main energy supplier (Dicken, 2007). The French transnational corporation Total produces oil in seven African countries: Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Congo-Brazzaville, Gabon, Libya and Nigeria. Total is also the main foreign corporation investing in Congo-Brazzaville and Gabon. Differently, British transnational corporations operate specifically in former colonies. British Petroleum, for example, has invested in Algeria (in alliance with Sonatrach), in Libya (in alliance with the local company National Oil Company) and in Angola (particularly in activities of off-shore extraction). Royal Dutch Shell in 2005 has extracted about 1.1 million barrels per day, right before the closure of many extraction sites as a consequence of riots and disorders in the delta of river Niger. Italian transnational corporation Eni (formerly a state-owned enterprise, currently privatised) has invested in Algeria, Angola, Congo-Brazzaville, Egypt, Libya and Nigeria.
Many lesser-known European transnational corporations have been operating in Africa for decades, in strict connection with local elites and local policy makers. The meaningful profits exploited by foreign corporations, together with the lack of positive spillovers for African economies, have been at the centre of a number of critical analyses (Dicken, 2007). European corporations are willing to maintain their hegemonic positions in the continent in the future, but during the last decade their role in the extractive industry has been reduced because of the growing role of giant American energy corporations and because of the investments from China and India. Overall, the global competition for the control of African energy resources underlines a number of global problems concerning global energy governance and, in general, the uneven, ongoing processes of economic globalisation (Ferguson, 2006; Dicken, 2007).

4.5. Conclusions and Future Perspectives

The aim of this chapter has been to build a geographical analysis of political relations, paths, risks and possibilities related to European energy security. In order to explore this topic, the geographies of oil, natural gas and coal supplies have been analysed, and current bottlenecks, potential dangers and possible lines of development have been discussed.
The main conclusions deriving from the above sections may be summarised in specific geographical representations emphasising the main directions that Europe needs to follow for future energy security. The production of representations and scenarios is indeed a typical task of disciplines as geography and spatial planning. Representations are devices for interpreting reality, for communicating messages, for thinking about alternatives and for building politics. Political choices are not rarely based on symbolic representations of space, such as spatial metaphors or visual metaphors (Barnes and Duncan, 1992).18 The kind of representations proposed in this conclusive section are explicitly suggestive and communicative, by taking advantage of the use of chorematic diagrams, ie, dynamic symbols introduced in maps in order to summarise information and to show relevant (supposed or actual) spatial dynamics (see the classic work of Reynaud, 1981; see also Reimer, 2010; Paklone, 2011).19
image
Figure 4.4 A spatial scenario European energy security. Authors’ own elaboration.
The map proposed in Fig. 4.4 is a first attempt to build a geographical representation of Europe’s view of macroregional geopolitics of energy security. In the picture, the stars represent the main nodes for European energy supply, while the triangles are the main ‘demanding’ countries. As discussed in the previous sections, the main strategic areas are Russia, the Caspian Sea area and the Persian Gulf area. While the Caspian and the Persian areas may be conceptualised as spaces characterised by a certain internal coherence (the Caspian countries willing to emancipate from Russian hegemony; the OPEC countries may be considered as a sociological ‘collective actor’), as well as the evident case of Russia, this is definitely not the case for Africa. Africa is in fact characterised by a high degree of internal fragmentation: a number of countries have developed individual relations with Europe or with single European countries, as well as with the United States and/or China. Africa is indeed a contested space, at the centre of strategic fluxes and investments from all over the world. From a quantitative point of view, energy flows are currently not as important as those involving Russia, the Caspian Sea area and the Persian Gulf area, but flows are important because geopolitical scenarios are still open, and it is not yet so clear if and how Europe, the United States, China or other rising powers (such as India) will secure their energy supplies from Africa.
In the African space, only the northern part of the continent is strongly connected to Europe in terms of safe energy flows (larger European chorem, with dotted line). The Mediterranean area has long-time energy relations with Southern Europe, and these relations are considered relatively stable. In a similar way, gas and oil provisions from the North Sea are highly safe (and this is the reason because the North Sea star-symbol has been put inside the European chorem), but rather marginal from a quantitative point of view.
As is well known, the Persian Gulf area (and similarly, on a smaller scale, also the Caspian Sea area) is a global energy supplier, and for this reason meaningful connections link the Persian Gulf with major global energy importers, as the United States, Europe, China and India.
As fully discussed in the previous section, the key node for European energy security is Russia. Russia is the biggest ‘star’ in the qualitative representation of Fig. 4.4, because Russia is de facto the main European energy supplier. At the same time, ‘border effects’, that means (in this case) conflictual connections, characterise the relations with Russia, as well as between Russia and the countries of the Caspian area (double-red lines, in the figure). Russia plays indeed a quasi-monopolistic role in relation to Europe and, at the same time, has a sort of ‘imperialist’ attitude towards its southern neighbours. A key element for the energy security in Europe is to diversify as much of the energy supply as possible, while of course building stable and friendly relations with Russia.
Fig. 4.5 is a representational exercise dealing with a ‘maximum diversification’ scenario. It graphically represents the optimistic idea that Europe, in the future, will diversify as much as possible the geography of its energy suppliers. The figure proposes three different types of arrows. The thicker arrows are ‘first level suppliers’. These are the geographical relations that will be pivotal for European energy supply. In this hypothetical scenario, Russia will still be a major supplier, but a number of other areas will share a similar role. In particular, the Caspian area and the Persian basin area will export oil and gas side by side with Russia (but independently from the latter). Of course, such an option will be possible if the ongoing ‘pipeline war’, discussed in previous sections, will end with a major role of European companies in the control of transport corridors. Finally, Africa will be a major oil exporting area for Europe.
Secondary suppliers are geographical spaces that will play a minor role in oil provision. Of course, a minor role may still be important for diversification. The only area represented as a secondary supplier is Central America. Currently, Venezuela is a European oil supplier; it is not likely that its role will increase in the future, but it is a player in global energy geopolitics. Finally, the potential development axis refers to connections that are currently not relevant, but that may become crucial in the future. To put it differently, potential development axis may represent European challenges in the future. For example, the connection with Canada is represented. Canada is right now a minor oil supplier for Europe, but its role may increase in the future if new technologies will help the exploitation of local giant reserves of bituminous sands. The Western Arctic reserves will probably become a key geopolitical area because of the major oil reserves located in the area; it is estimated that about one-fourth of the world’s unexplored oil reserves are there. Finally, a key potential development axis connects Europe with sub-Saharan territories in Africa; a key area is, of course, the Guinea gulf, that is right now a contested space for the control over oil extraction.
image
Figure 4.5 Maximum diversification scenario. Authors’ own elaboration.
Of course, Europe’s energy self-reliance will mean increasing internal energy production, and energy efficiency is pivotal in this scenario. The more the EU becomes self-reliant, the more it will be resilient and resistant to energy crises and fluctuations in energy markets, reducing at the same time the need for the diversification of external suppliers. Currently, the self-reliance scenario seems to be impossible, but internal production and energy efficiency have to be considered as virtuous processes: if self-reliance is (actually) impossible, it doesn’t mean that it is not necessary to try to walk that path.
It is possible to extrapolate some additional considerations. First and foremost, it is crucial to reduce energy dependency, which means increasing internal energy production and energy efficiency (see Chapter 2). Technology is the most obvious way to achieve this goal, and in this sense the role of research and development (R&D) is confirmed as a cornerstone element. The EU is certainly pushing R&D in many ways – consider, for example, the recent emphasis on smart city programmes – and this chapter emphasises how a decrease in the need for oil and natural gas may free Europe from a number of complex and evolving geopolitical struggles. It has to be mentioned that the controversial possibility of increasing nuclear energy production in Europe may be considered as an alternative path to foster self-reliance in the energy field as clean coal technologies implementation will be a self-reliance alternative too.
Second, reducing the Russian hegemonic position for European energy supply is a hot topic. A geographical diversification of energy imports is needed in order to make European energy supply safer, more reliable and probably also more competitive and resilient.
Third, it should be useful to adopt, for the EU, a constructive approach through a policy framework around elements of the enlightened self-interest of those governments displaying features of State Capitalism, such as China. In the case of some countries which are part of a transition from the Liberal Capitalist to the State Capitalist regime, and only so far display limited State Capitalist tendencies, it may even be feasible to arrest those tendencies by pro-actively pursuing mutual interests on a country-to-country basis. This would imply, for example, a higher than hitherto level of joint investment, accelerated adoption of common technical, legal, commercial and market standards, and a concentration on truly open trade based on mutual understanding and advantage, rather than on a culture of complaint and counter-complaint. The pursuit of mutual self-interest should result in a more secure and a more dependable access to oil, gas and minerals.
Finally, it has to be mentioned that this chapter focused on the external geopolitical dimension of energy security, particularly by focusing on the problem of energy provision, and therefore the report has not considered a number of topics that have been already analysed in Chapter 2 as the need for developing an internal integrated energy market and the relations between energy production and climate change. These perspectives are complementary but important takes on the European energy question.

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1 Winston Churchill’s decision in August 1911 that the British Royal Navy needed to convert from the easily accessible and politically secure ‘Welsh Coal’ to the volatile ‘Persian Oil’ in order to maintain its military dominance was the first signal of the growing intensity of global competition over energy sources.

2 See Chapter 8 for an extensive discussion of the meaning of Energy security and the links entwining the concepts of energy security and climate change.

3 The text refers to ‘macroregional geopolitics’ as the practice of analysing actually existing or potential energy conflicts, spatial relations and functional interactions based on the logics of energy production, consumption or supply that Europe (or relevant parts of Europe) is developing or may develop in the future with external territories such as Russia, the Caspian Sea area and the Northern Africa region. Obviously, the analysis of the EU’s energy relations implies the consideration of a large space and a global perspective. European energy relations, in fact, spread above a large part of Asia and Africa, and to a minor degree even the Americas.

4 Such as World Energy Council (WEC), World Petroleum Organisation (WPO), Greenpeace, World Council for Renewable Energy (WCRE), International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), International Research Network for Low-carbon Societies (LCS-Rnet) and others.

5 POLINARES – The Changing Oil Value Chain: Implications for Security of Supply (www.polinares.eu) is an EU-funded research project exploring global challenges in the competition for natural resources and proposing new approaches to collaborative solutions.

6 Military power still remains crucial, but its relative importance in geopolitics is decreasing when compared to energy. Saudi Arabia, for example, is characterised by a ‘weak’ army, but the country occupies a central role in international affairs because of its vast oil reserves. Similarly, countries such as Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Angola and Sudan have begun to gain influence, despite their limited size (Klare, 2008a).

7 This phenomenon may be grasped by thinking that, in 2008, oil-exporting countries have gained something like $970 billion from the export of oil, a figure that is three times higher than the one of 2002 (Klare, 2008a).

8 Although it is too early to predict the overall impact of these agreements, many scholars believe in an ongoing, radical realignment of political powers in order to secure the exploitation of energy resources (Klare, 2004; Bradshaw, 2009; Bosse, 2011).

9 Until recently, most of the world’s oil reserves were controlled by large Western private companies (like Exxon Mobil, Chevron, British Petroleum, Royal Dutch Shell, Total SA, etc.). Today, national oil companies control more than 80% of the known oil reserves. Giant players like Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia), National Iranian Oil Company (Iran), Petroleos de Venezuela SA (Venezuela) and Gazprom (Russia) play a crucial strategic role in economic and geopolitical terms. In all these cases, the companies are wholly or largely owned by local governments (Klare, 2008a).

10 More worryingly, other scholars believe that the peak of oil production has already been reached and that we are right now experiencing a decline in production (Kerr, 2011), showing how the optimism that prevailed at the beginning of the last century has now vanished. On the other hand, it must be mentioned that some countries are apparently distant from their productive peak. This is the case of Canada, Venezuela, Iran and Iraq, whose oil reserves are expected to have a residual life of more than 100 years. It is therefore evident their pivotal strategic role in forthcoming international scenarios (Klare, 2008a).

11 With an average oil production of about 4.5 million barrels per day, the estimated residual life of oil in the North Sea is 10 years (EC, 2013).

12 Current infrastructural projects refer to: (1) two undersea pipelines that will connect Turkey to Syria and Egypt; (2) three pipelines that will connect Italy to Libya, Tunisia and Algeria; (3) two pipelines that are expected to connect Algeria to France and Spain; and (4) one pipeline connecting Morocco with Spain and Portugal.

13 Currently, strategic corridors in the Caucasian area are (1) the BTC pipeline running from Baku (Azerbaijan) via Tbilisi (Georgia) to Ceyhan (Turkey); (2) The Baku to Novorossiisk (Russia) pipeline and the Baku to Supsa (Georgia) pipeline. From a geopolitical point of view, oil (and gas) corridors in the area are highly controversial. Russia considers them as political projects challenging Russian security, and Russian political and economic interests. Since Putin’s presidency, Russia has emphasised a greater strategic interest in maintaining its influence in the ‘near abroad’ (Badalyan, 2011). Clearly, redirecting Caspian energy exports away from the Russian transit system challenged not only Russia’s dominant role as a key channel for Caspian energy supplies to Europe but also its traditional strategic interests in the Caucasus.

14 With Vladimir Putin’s leadership (since 1999), Russian hegemony in the control of natural gas has increased. Gazprom, in fact, is acquiring control of more and more transport infrastructures (Volkov, 2004; Hurst, 2010).

15 Of course, other areas may play a major role in world energy geopolitics but, in the logics of this chapter, the discourse focuses on those areas which play a main role according to a European perspective.

16 In this concern, it is important to mention the historic US–Iran agreement (July 2015) that aims to eliminate the sanctions imposed by the United States to Teheran in exchange for a significant reduction of Iran’s nuclear programme.

17 The situation of the area is today very fluid, due to the conflicts and events that characterise it (eg, the recent elections in Iraq, the Syrian war, the role of the Caliphate, etc.) which may lead, in the close future, to the consolidation of an alternative regional order.

18 It has to be mentioned that every spatial representation is embedded in subjective choices, concerning, for example, the use of conventional symbols, colours and scales (Harley, 1989; Starling, 1998). In this sense, geographical representations have to be evaluated not just in terms of accuracy, but above all in terms of usefulness: are geographical representations useful for the circulation of knowledge and the building of innovative ideas? Are geographical representations useful for political consensus? How communicative are they (Taylor et al., 1995; Vanolo, 2010)?

19 Probably the best known examples are the maps and scenarios proposed by French institution DATAR (see for example Datar, 2000) or, going back in time, the famous ‘blue banana’ proposed by French geographer Brunet (1989). Today, visual scenarios based on qualitative hypothesis are widely used in planning activities all over Europe (Dühr, 2003, 2007; see also CRPM, 2002).

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