Chapter 1. Living Large in the New Millennium

 

We are the first stage since the dawn of civilization in which people dared to think it is practicable to make the benefits of civilization available to the whole human race.

 
 --Arnold Toynbee (1889–1975)

At first glance, the new millennium has brought us more of the strife and uncertainty that haunted the 20th Century. This perspective, unfortunately, has been shaped largely by gut-wrenching headlines: roller-coaster financial markets, corporate bankruptcies and malfeasance, international political and economic crises, sporadic terrorism, and environmental degradation, to name a few. For many, our liberal free-market system feels seriously broken. Yet behind the daily media assaults, monumental, positive forces are transforming the world—largely for the better.

This book explores the ways in which life is changing and improving, providing greater wealth and opportunity for more people than ever before. Such prosperity is altering not only the material world, but also human needs, values, and virtually every aspect of life. Many social upheavals in rich, middle-income, and even poor countries reported in the media reflect the current warp-speed changes in global lifestyles. While such historic changes do indeed create painful adjustments, make no mistake: The world is wealthier today than it has ever been.

Measured by virtually any yardstick, you are—whether or not you know it—wealthy.

This is particularly true for any college-educated American. Yes, we Americans must work, but not as our grandparents or great-grandparents did to eke out survival minimums of food, clothing, and shelter. We still work to eat, but today, it’s for food we desire, not the minimum calories needed to survive. Our choices are vast, from fresh organic vegetables and exotic fruits from around the world to prepared microwavable meals. We also work to eat out, whether it’s at a diner, an Outback Steakhouse, or a trendy Zagat-rated restaurant. Americans now spend almost as much money dining out as we spend eating at home.

We still work for clothes, but not simply to cover our naked bodies. We want to wear the right clothes, whether they’re from Old Navy, Eddie Bauer, the J Crew catalog, or a chic boutique. We don’t buy basic shoes; we buy Nike Air Jordans, Timberland boots, or Gucci loafers. We want new, stylish wardrobes every year, and most of us discard clothes well before they’re worn out.

We still work for shelter, but more for nesting in houses or apartments that we own, or will own when our mortgages are paid. We work to live in taller high-rises with views, prettier suburbs with better schools, or luxury condominiums with health clubs. We work to live in gated communities, to have vacation homes and timeshares, to renovate or add on, to decorate and redecorate from IKEA, Pottery Barn, Crate & Barrel, or Horchow.

Perhaps most importantly, we work to entertain ourselves when we’re not working. We work to buy Sony’s largest and flattest television, theater tickets, the best sports or movie packages on satellite TV, Dell’s newest Pentium computer, Madonna’s latest compact disc (CD) or download, and Barbie dolls, BMX bikes, and X-Boxes for our kids. We work to relax and read Forbes or Entertainment Weekly and watch rented videos from Blockbuster. We work to sun at the beach, fish at the lake, gamble in Las Vegas, fly to Hawaii or Disney World, take a cruise, or maybe sightsee in Europe. Many work not to own just any car, but to buy a second or even third car, or to upgrade to the latest Lexus or Jeep.

These trends underpin my definition of wealth in the new millennium: freedom. Freedom from hunger, from disease, from short lives, from illiteracy, from debilitating physical labor, from poor housing, from shabby clothing, and not unimportantly, from boredom. It is this physical and psychological wealth—or freedom—for which all humans strive. While this wealth has largely been concentrated in a handful of Western economies, wealth has grown around the globe: There are 1–2 billion people alive today whose lifestyle exceeds anything kings and queens dreamed of 150 years ago, and another 2–3 billion only a generation or two behind.

Note

A key driver of wealth has been the historic migration in labor from back-breaking agriculture toward industry and services.

Having spent more than 15 years working with developing countries, I can say that these trends are altering life in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the former Soviet Union, in some ways, more than in the West. For example, India’s middle class is more than twice as large as the entire Canadian population. China, the world’s most populous country with more than 1.3 billion people, now doubles its economic output every 10 or 12 years, or 3 times faster than the U.S. By 2030, China could easily have a consuming middle class the size of the entire U.S. population.

Current living standards in most of the world—including much of Asia, Latin America, and the former Soviet Union—have risen dramatically beyond those of the 19th Century, and a formula for meeting humans’ basic needs has been found. Yes, much of the world lives on less than $5 a day. And tragically, there are still over 1 billion people who live in abject poverty—on less than $1 a day. But striking progress has been made over the last 50 years, and recent World Bank studies project true abject poverty will halve by the year 2020.[1]

One of the key drivers of wealth has been the shift in labor away from back-breaking agriculture. Two hundred years ago, almost all of humanity toiled 16-hour days, 6 or 7 days a week, just to feed, clothe, and shelter themselves. Few people lived past 60, and many died at birth or early in childhood. But improved pre-natal and maternal healthcare and education have boosted life expectancies, and better nourishment has bolstered the underlying health of all people. In fact, there has been a larger leap in worldwide life expectancy over the past century than at all other times in history, combined.[2]

As economies move away from agriculture toward industry and services—as first seen in the West—economic output, or Gross National Product (GNP), expands dramatically, triggering profound lifestyle changes (refer to Table 1-1).[3] For example, in Kenya, where 80% of the labor force is in agriculture, GNP per capita is a mere $350 per year. In Spain, where less than 10% of the population farms, GNP per capita is 40 times higher. Keep in mind that only 5 generations ago in America, it took 19 farmers to feed themselves and just 1 non-farmer. Today, one American farmer harvests for 200 non-farmers, not only in the U.S. but also for export markets.

Table 1-1. The Nature of Labor and Wealth in the New Millennium

Country

Kenya

India

China

Egypt

Mexico

Poland

Hungary

Taiwan

Spain

Canada

Australia

U.S.

Sources: The Economist, CIA Factbook 2002.

            

GNP Per Capita ($000, p.a.)

0.35

0.44

0.75

1.3

3.8

3.9

4.5

12.0

14.1

19.2

20.0

29.2

% of Labor Force in: Agriculture

80

60

50

34

17

19

8

8

7

4

5

3

Industry

7

18

23

22

27

32

35

37

31

22

21

23

Services

13

22

27

44

56

49

57

55

62

74

74

74

As wealth is created and the ability to satisfy basic needs increases, individual and community values shift. These values underpin how societies are organized, from economic philosophies to politics, religion, family, culture, education, and the environment. Money does change everything.

Shedding light on these complicated economic, political, and social trends requires a holistic approach, combining seemingly unrelated fields of basic science, demography, sociology, psychology, economics, history, popular culture, and mass media. At the core of my wide-ranging, multidisciplinary exploration of how wealth changes the human condition is the concept of a hierarchical values system. Societies with different needs will, ultimately, promote different values. A married couple in Peru that needs to feed their family on $3,000 per year will not be interested in the latest Maytag dishwasher that captures the attention of a couple making $50,000 per year in Peoria. Simply stated, what a particular group of people needs to physically, emotionally, and psychologically sustain itself ultimately shapes its value system and way of life.

With this focus on human motivation, I am proposing three broad classifications of modern existence: Biological, Material, and Experiential. These categories correlate generally to annual per-capita GNP levels: perhaps up to $2,000 per annum for Biological societies, $2,000–50,000 in the wide Material range, and $50,000 and above in Experiential-trending populations. However, these terms are meant to encompass broader measures of socio-economic progress than pure output and income, such as education and health levels, gender and minority participation, and leisure time. Where a particular society falls in my framework is an important indicator and driver of the lifestyle and value transformations we’ll discuss.

This division of life into three catagories is, of course, a conceptual device. There are no simple or absolute categories for complex social, political, and economic development. There are few countries that fit neatly into just one of these classifications; all three exist in every society to some degree, although the number of Experientials in Ghana or Biologicals in the U.S. is relatively small. In fact, the uneven mix of these three groups within and between countries may lead to some of the most significant conflicts for the world in the coming decades.

During my career on Wall Street, I have seen the limits of studying development in traditional financial terms. What drives progress is far more complicated than cold economic theory; this is why my framework draws heavily from motivational psychologists and social scientists. In the 1960s and 1970s, personality theorist Abraham Maslow popularized the notion of a hierarchy of human needs: All people have a rough pecking order of wants. Such needs are arranged in a motivational ladder (see Figure 1-1), requiring satisfaction of needs on the lower rungs before those on the top rungs.[4] This provides an interesting starting point to discuss my three classifications of societal development.

Maslow’s pyramid of human needs.

Figure 1-1. Maslow’s pyramid of human needs.

The Biological Phase

First, all humans must satisfy their physiological and safety needs, which correspond roughly with Maslow’s bottom rungs. Such needs are unbelievably powerful. Imagine not eating or sleeping for a couple of days, or being stranded in a snowstorm; all other non-survival needs would be blocked out. For the average American, meeting such basic “Biological” needs is not an everyday challenge. But for some 2–3 billion people around the developing world, the next batch of calories is still a prime motivator to work.

Once the subsistent needs are met, humans crave security and order. Without such stability, planning for the future and creating widespread wealth are virtually impossible. One only needs to look at war-torn parts of Asia, the Middle East, and Africa to see how economic growth is stunted by a variety of physical and political instabilities. While everyone has higher needs and aspirations, physiological imperatives tend to shape behavior, values, and social institutions in Biological societies.

In places where people now live on $1–5 a day, life is not much different from how it might have been in the U.S. or Europe some 150–200 years ago, before the Industrial Revolution. These Biological economies tend to be agrarian, with long days spent toiling in fields. Life expectancy in these countries is among the world’s lowest, ranging from 40–65 years, versus nearly 80 years in the richest countries. Short life expectancy is also linked to infant mortality rates, which are typically between 30–90 per 1,000 births, versus 5 in the U.S. As a result of high infant mortality, birth rates tend to be greatest, along with family size. The average Biological household is roughly twice as large as the average in wealthy North American or European countries, with maybe 3–4 children versus 1 or 2, and with grandparents sometimes living under the same roof. Literacy rates, too, are low in Biological societies—often less than 50%, and large segments of the population are never formally educated. Women are often second-class citizens, legally and culturally, and minority rights rarely exist.

Biological economies tend to be statist, or centrally managed, with frequent government intervention, and geared toward meeting only basic human needs. Often, these impoverished societies can be dominated by religious beliefs that reinforce the value of order, structure, and predictability. Sometimes religious groups control government, like the Taliban did in Afghanistan. Biological populations tend to be organized in small communal units that stress conformity and tradition, with social and economic mobility virtually nonexistent. In the societies, democracy often takes a backseat to autocracy.

In short, how a society’s needs are met determines the values of that society, and Biological governmental and community networks are organized primarily around survival principles. Countries characterized as largely Biological might include Haiti, Kenya, and Bangladesh. However, some more populous, stratified countries like India and China also have large Biological-oriented segments.

The Material Phase

This stage begins to evolve when large segments of a population move from subsistence agriculture to factory and service jobs. The Industrial Revolution ushered in this phase in the West, raising productivity, and promoting the mass production of goods, new economic efficiencies, and the advent of true markets. This migration from farming has a profound impact on people’s lives, as the amount of time and income spent on necessities falls precipitously, providing people the new opportunity to enjoy leisure. This is the great legacy of technology and industrialization: People produce more in less time and come away from work with more disposable income and time to spend it.[6]

As personal income grows beyond what’s necessary to cover basic food, clothing, and shelter, work becomes intertwined with social and status-linked needs. Figure 1-2 shows that as societies move from agriculture to manufacturing and services, income grows and people net more leisure time and money to consume nonessential items. In 1875, when more than 95% of Americans farmed, only 18% of income was spent on leisure. By 1995, leisure spending ballooned to 67.5%, with less than 3% of Americans engaged in farming. Over the same period, the percentages of income spent on food, clothing, and shelter fell dramatically.[7]

The changing pattern of the consumption composition of American household spending, 1875 and 1995.

Figure 1-2. The changing pattern of the consumption composition of American household spending, 1875 and 1995.

Economist and author Paul Zane Pilzer argues that once basic biological and security imperatives are met, people are thrown into the realm of alchemic demand, a phase that neatly describes how economics and human needs are joined at the hip. Pilzer believes that 90% of what is consumed today in wealthy countries like the U.S. is unnecessary for Biological existence, but satisfies alchemic “quantity” and “quality” demands. A “quantity” demand is the want for more of what one already has: more food, another pair of jeans, an extra CD player. Indeed, the demand for a second or third item—like a telephone or car—is often greater than the demand for a first one in wealthy countries.[8]

However, demand for increased quantity is often capped by Engel’s Law: One can only eat so much regardless of income.[9] Once well-fed and clothed in a moderately wealthy society, people want better food and clothing versus more. This creates what Pilzer calls “quality” demand. There are entire industries and movements built on quality demands, segmenting products and services beyond imagination. As Pilzer observes:

Note

A typical middle-class American couple would have little interest in buying a third Chevrolet to add to the two they already own. But they might jump at the chance to get rid of one of the Chevrolets and upgrade to a BMW. A young executive whose closet is filled with eight $400 suits would probably have little interest in purchasing a ninth one. But he might jump at the chance to purchase a new $800 designer suit.[10]

In Material societies, people tend to focus on status and esteem needs, since they are no longer struggling to meet the physiological needs described earlier. In countries where large middle classes are developing, communal values tend to weaken while individualism grows stronger. Simultaneously, secularization of economic and political institutions occurs. With greater freedom from concern over survival necessities, Material populations begin to consider the possibility of controlling their own destiny, which may translate into greater democratic tendencies. Material life in the new millennium is dominated by the desires for status, recognition, and the freedom to live a life of choice.

Don’t underestimate the far-reaching importance of these social needs. In his seminal book, The End of History and the Last Man, Francis Fukuyama calls the universal need for esteem, or “recognition,” the greatest and most misunderstood motivator in history. Indeed, while such social needs manifest themselves economically in where people decide to work and what they buy, Fukuyama wisely notes that these needs ultimately create demands for democracy and liberal economics—for a strong popular voice as to how government will operate. While democratic yearnings are not limited to rich populations, they are suppressed, often severely, in countries where subsistent needs are not readily met. As a result, greater popular political participation and a tendency toward democratic governance characterize the Material phase.

Material governments and institutions are built to foster economic growth and wealth creation. They become more bureaucratic and centralized than those in Biological societies, and are focused less on supporting traditional community units. A significant feature of Material societies is the separation of traditional religious structures from everyday functions and institutions. This evolves when secular conventions—versus holy scriptures—become life’s rulebook, ultimately creating “civil” society with personal and property rights codified by laws and regulations, and enforced by an impartial justice system.

Note

Material segments come away from work with more disposable income and free time to spend it.

Depending on the country, life expectancy in Material societies is averaging 70–80 years. Minimum daily caloric intake is not a problem for most; in fact, obesity might even become more prevalent, as in the U.S. Literacy rates often range between 60–99%. Family size tends to be smaller than in Biological countries, and there are better medical and health practices. Urbanization trends are well-established, and suburbanization is increasing in higher income Material countries.

Some countries newly entering the Material phase still have large segments of Biological populations, like Mexico, Brazil, Russia, Poland, South Korea, and Malaysia. Middle-stage Material countries include Spain, Israel, Taiwan, and others countries with $10,000–20,000 per-capita average incomes. Material populations dominate wealthier countries like the U.S., Great Britain, Japan, and Germany. Indeed, most of these nations are more than two-thirds Material.

The Experiential Phase

Generally freed from economic and social hardship, some wealthier societies have large populations that are increasingly focused on psychologically rooted needs: the Experiential phase of greater personal fulfillment.[12] At this level, the desired quantity and quality of material accumulation have been achieved and individuals look outside of the traditional social structure to find purpose and meaning in their efforts.

No country has a majority Experiential population yet, but there are growing numbers in the U.S., Canada, Western Europe (particularly Scandinavia), Japan, and Australia. And as mentioned above, there are small segments of Experientials in virtually all countries, particularly in highly populated Biological societies such as India and China, as well as in dozens of Material-dominated countries. It should go without saying that everyone yearns for individualized, personal fulfillment, but economic circumstances often determine whether Experiential needs are pursued or lay dormant.

The University of Michigan’s Human Values Survey highlights the connection between wealth, personal well-being, and the search for greater self-expression. There is a direct relationship between output per capita and the Michigan’s Subjective Well-Being Index. Simply stated, higher output countries almost universally have more “satisfied” populations, although of course that does not mean wealthy individuals have problem-free lives.

Experiential people put less faith in traditional political and religious institutions and concentrate more on their own physical, mental, and spiritual fulfillment. In countries with growing Experiential populations, traditional government recedes into the background as people choose to participate in activities that fit their individual values and needs. The rise of tourism, the booming “wellness” industry (including everything from nutritional concerns, fitness, and cosmetic surgery to advanced medicines), and a growing interest in non-traditional spiritual practices (which may include new religious movements, or NRMs) are examples of this. Ironically, another Experiential trend is the “simplicity” movement, in which people drop out of the Material phase, believing that “less is more” in terms of achieving happiness. Having reached a level of economic security unprecedented in the world, these people are rejecting the purely material world in their search for greater holistic fulfillment. Echoing Maslow’s “self-actualization” stage, Ronald Inglehart notes that once all physical and material needs are sated, people often place higher priority on self-expression than on pure economic effectiveness.[13]

Going Forward

Money Changes Everything begins with a historical overview of the world’s shifting economies, followed by an investigation of how wealth is being created today. The remaining chapters will examine how specific aspects of the human experience—government, family, religion, education, leisure, and the environment—are being transformed by prosperity. Most chapters will include a chart like Figure 1-3, showing the economic growth and historic changes that have occurred within each chapter’s area of focus.[15]

Wealth and human progression, 2000BCE–2000CE.

Figure 1-3. Wealth and human progression, 2000BCE–2000CE.

From my lucky perspective as a 21st Century American, wealth creates freedom: freedom to choose how one spends one’s time on earth. And because I see wealth increasing around the globe, I am unabashedly optimistic. But I am also realistic; I understand that wealth creation is not always fair or equal. Comparative advantage and free trade—the main engines of prosperity—are philosophies that inherently divide and segment people; not everyone gains evenly under them. The fact that some countries are split into my three phases within their own borders highlights this inequality. Moreover, it should not be overlooked that some 2000 privileged families in the world control more assets than the 2 billion poorest. Wealth creation is a tide that lifts most boats, but it certainly raises some higher and faster.

Table 1-2. Framework for Understanding Societal Development

Biological

Material

Experiental

Economics

Steady-state, lessdiversified agrarian or mineral-oriented; poor efficiency; some oligopols; limited capital formation; largely essential goods; small middle class; vulnerable to external shocks

Market-oriented, more diversified mix of agrarian, industrial, and services; greater efficiency; some capital market formation; mix of essential and nonessential goods; less vulnerable to external shocks

Laissez-faire markets; highly industrial and service-oriented; littleagriculture; great efficiency; high capital market formation; non-essentials very important; large domestic market, less vulnerable to external shocks

Government

Autocratic, possibly totalitarian; questionable voting and democracy; poor tax collections; limited legal system

Greater democracy, parliamentarian; greater tax collection; improving legal system

Fully tested democracies; functioning accountable parliaments; reliable tax collection; fully enforceable, tested legal systems

Religion

Traditional and prevalent; possibly fundamentalist; still important sphere in government and culture

Becoming more secular; traditions fading; church less important in society; formal attendance and belief down; traditional values questioned

Very secular; formal religion less prevalent; formal churches less visible; rising spiritual and/or “selfactualizing” needs

Family

Larger, with high birth rates; multigenerational homes; largelyheterosexualhouseholds; some female and child labor

Medium-sized, with modest fertility rates; single-generational homes; largely heterosexual, married households; growing female labor, and declining child labor (if any)

Small-sized, with low or negative birthrates; dispersed generational households; mix of single and marrieds, heterosexual and homosexual households; full female workforce; protective child labor laws

Leisure/Culture

Traditional, religious, fundamental; little money spent on culture consumption; rural, but urbanizing; indigenous versus cosmopolitan

Traditions fading; secular cosmopolitanism growing; expanding income spent on leisure, entertainment, and sports; widespread urbanization, declining rural life

Secular, cosmopolitan; focus on work objective; high amounts spent on leisure, entertainment, and sports; urban and suburban, with little rural population

Constituencies not yet engaged in the wealth process, often illiterate and living under despot regimes, maintain traditional values at odds with those treasured in wealthy nations. The intellectually dynamic, free-market, democratic, secular lifestyle that usually accompanies greater affluence often can be despised and thought of as wanton, sacrilegious, and shameful by non-participants. Ironically, many technologies that have helped create wealth can be used to disseminate hateful propaganda or can even be fashioned into weapons to attack richer democratic societies, a risk that has greatly increased in the last three decades. The tragic terrorist attacks of September 11th are a stark example of this.

This is why everyone, everywhere should be concerned about wealth creation and globalization. It should be clear that a sagging Japanese economy, or a surging one in China, or a politically unstable African continent, or rising Islamic fundamentalism, or global warming trends resonate across all borders and affect all lives. The needs, values, and lifestyles of every society affect many abroad, and not always positively.

My objectives in Money Changes Everything are to demonstrate that wealth is a multi-dimensional concept, and that prosperity is altering human needs, values, and lifestyles around the globe—first in the West, and now for billions elsewhere. Not every person or every society will welcome these changes, and some may reject them completely. There will be many who adopt them, but might not benefit much from them in their own lifetimes. This book will show why these monumental forces should be understood, humanely and intelligently managed, and universally embraced.

Table 1-2 outlines a framework for understanding societal development.

Endnotes

1.

World Bank figures change regularly, but are publicly available at: www.worldbank.org

2.

Fogel, Robert William. The Fourth Great Awakening & the Future of Egalitarianism (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2000), 143.

3.

Throughout this book, a variety of statistics will be used to discuss country output and income, including Gross National Product (GNP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), depending on what was available. In situations where the statistics have been adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP), it will be noted accordingly.

4.

The two key reference books on Maslow’s theories are his Toward a Psychology of Being (1968) and Motivation and Personality (1970). In addition, one might also investigate Clayton Alderfer’s ERG Work Motivation Theory. Instead of five rungs, Alderfer offers three: Existence, or “E” needs, Relatedness, or “R” needs, and “G,” or Growth needs. The low-level E needs correspond roughly with Maslow’s bottom two rungs: food, water, shelter, and safety. Alderfer extrapolated this into work terms, noting that most E needs were satisfied by a traditional American job. It is interesting to note that Eastern yoga recognized a similar progression of human needs thousands of years ago with its chakra, or energy centers, framework. By unleashing the Kundalini (potent life force) from the Muladha, or survival chakra, one can progress ultimately to Sahasrana, or “Super-State of Consciousness”—a realm similar to Maslow’s self-actualization.

5.

Information on Ghana is drawn from: United Nations, Development Program, “1998 Human Development Report” (New York: United Nations, 1998), Chapter 3; World Bank Group, “Ghana at a Glance” (October 2, 2001), online at: www.worldbank.org/data/; and CIA, World Fact Book, 2001: Ghana, online at: www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html

6.

Indeed, I have often thought that a calculation of wealth might be something such as “spare cash/spare time.” What I’m trying to do is capture the element of time to actually enjoy excess money saved.

7.

Fogel, 266.

8.

Pilzer, Paul Zane. God Wants You to Be Rich (New York: Fireside, 1995), 92–93.

9.

Associated with Ernst Engel, the 19th Century German statistician who noted with rising incomes, the share of expenditures for food (and, by extension, other products) declines. Engel’s Law does not suggest that the consumption of food products remains unchanged as income increases. It suggests that consumers increase their food expenditures (in percentage terms) less than their income increases.

10.

Pilzer, 93.

11.

All figures are from: The Economist, Pocket World in Figures, 2001 (London: Profile Books, 2001), 200–201; and the World Bank Group, Department of Data and Statistics, online at: www.worldbank.org/data/

12.

As author Virginia Postrel pointed out to me, Maslow’s pyramid of needs probably does not work as linearly as Maslow himself suggested. Rather, several levels of needs may be gnawing at individuals at the same time, particularly in the higher Maslow rungs. And as September 11th proved, even the most highly evolved individuals can slip back and relinquish “higher” needs when security and life are threatened.

13.

Inglehart, Ronald. Modernization and Postmodernization (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997), 29.

14.

All figures are from: The Economist, Pocket World in Figures, 2001 (London: Profile Books, 2001), 218–219; and the World Bank Group, Department of Data and Statistics, online at: www.worldbank.org/data

15.

Note that the per-capita output data here are for OECD countries, which are considerably higher than world averages. However, since these are the countries that have ignited the wealth creation processes discussed herein, their data will be used for this common chart used throughout the book.

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