CONTENTS
Why Business School Strategy Keeps Failing
Resilience Is Your New Strategy for Growth
1 Transforming to Survive in Our Increasingly Volatile World
CEOs Feel Like They’re Out at Sea
The Mathematics of Monster Waves
Constructive Interference in Human Society
The Future Is Neither Deterministic nor Chaotic
2 10 Undercurrents Will Cause the Next Rogue Wave
The Local Impact of Macrotrends
If the Future’s So Obvious, Why Do Companies Keep Getting Hit by Rogue Waves?
Summary: Assess Your Threats and Opportunities
Investigation: The Art of Seeing the Invisible
Summary: Test Your Present Reality
Getting Comfortable with Uncertainty
Knowing the Pattern Without Knowing All the Data
Searching for Higher-Order Effects
Summary: Find Your Range of Futures
How to Win Through Practical Wargaming
Summary: Assess the Impact of Change
6 U: Uncouple Your Opportunities from Your Threats
Modify Your World Using Models
Prioritize Your Opportunities and Threats
Summary: Bend the Future to Your Benefit
More Innovation Doesn’t Always Make You More Profitable
Choosing the Right Experiments
Design Your Portfolio for Resilience as Well as Performance
Evaluate Your Results Effectively
Summary: Experiment to Future-Proof Your Business
Sowing the Seeds of an Experimental Mindset
How to Future-Proof Your Culture
Playing Basketball on a Football Field
Summary: Create a Culture of Experimentation
Conclusion: Driving Resilient Growth in Your Organization