BIBLIOGRAPHY

Abernathy, Charles M., and Robert M. Hamm. Surgical Intuition: What It Is and How to Get It. Philadelphia, PA: Hanley & Belfus, 1995.

Akerlof, George A., and Robert J. Shiller. Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters For Global Capitalism. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009.

Alicke, Mark D., and Olesya Govorun. “The Better-Than-Average Effect.” In The Self in Social Judgment, edited by Mark D. Alicke, David A. Dunning, and Joachim I. Krueger, 85–106. New York: Psychology Press, 2005.

Anderson, Camilla. “Iceland Gets Help to Recover from Historic Crisis.” IMF Survey Online, December 2, 2008.

Anderson, Chris. The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More. New York: Hyperion, 2006.

Anderson, P. W. “More is Different.” Science 177, no. 4047 (1972): 393–396.

Ariely, Dan. Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions. New York: Harper, 2008.

Armstrong, J. Scott. “Combining Forecasts.” In Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, edited by J. Scott Armstrong, 417–439. New York: Springer, 2001.

Armstrong, J. Scott, Monica Adya, and Fred Collopy. “Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation.” In Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, edited by J. Scott Armstrong, 259–282. New York: Springer, 2001.

Arnold, Tom, John H. Earl Jr., and David S. North. “Are Cover Stories Effective Contrarian Indicators?” Financial Analysts Journal 63, no. 2 (2007): 70–75.

Arrow, Kenneth J., Robert Forsythe, Michael Gorham, Robert Hahn, Robin Hansen, John O. Ledyard, Saul Levmore, Robert Litan, Paul Milgrom, Forrest D. Nelson, George R. Neumann, Marco Ottaviani, Thomas C. Schelling, Robert J. Shiller, Vernon L. Smith, Erik Snowberg, Cass R. Sunstein, Paul C. Tetlock, Philip E. Tetlock, Hal R. Varian, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitzewitz. “The Promise of Prediction Markets.” Science 320 (May 16, 2008): 877–878.

Arthur, W. Brian. Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 1994.

___.“Increasing Returns and the New World of Business.” Harvard Business Review, July-August 1996, 101–109.

Asch, S. E. “Effects of Group Pressure Upon the Modification and Distortion of Judgments.” In Groups, Leadership and Men, edited by Harold Guetzkow, 177–190. Pittsburgh, PA: Carnegie Press, 1951.

Ashenfelter, Orley. “Predicting the Quality and Prices of Bordeaux Wines.” Working paper no. 4, American Association of Wine Economists, April 2007.

Ashton, John F. In Six Days: Why Fifty Scientists Choose to Believe in Creation. Green Forest, AR: Master Books, 2001.

Ayres, Ian. Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to be Smart. New York: Bantam Books, 2007.

Bak, Per. How Nature Works: The Science of Self-Organized Criticality. New York: Springer-Verlag, 1996.

Baldwin, Carliss Y., and Kim B. Clark. Design Rules: The Power of Modularity. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2000.

Ball, Philip. Critical Mass: How One Thing Leads to Another. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2004.

Bar-Eli, Michael, Simcha Avugos, Markus Raab. “Twenty Years of ‘Hot Hand’ Research: Review and Critique.” Psychology of Sport and Exercise 7, no. 6 (2006): 525–553.

Bargh, John A., Mark Chen, and Laura Burrows. “Automaticity of Social Behavior: Direct Effects of Trait Construction and Stereotype Activation on Action,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 71, no. 2 (1996): 230–244.

Barras, Laurent, O. Scaillet, and Russ R. Wermers. “False Discoveries in Mutual Fund Performance: Measuring Luck in Estimated Alphas,” Robert H. Smith School Research paper RH 06–043, Swiss Finance Institute Research paper 08–18, September 1, 2008.

Bazerman, Max H. Judgment in Managerial Decision Making. 6th ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2006.

Bazerman, Max H., and Michael D. Watkins. Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming and How to Prevent Them. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2004.

Bazerman, Max H., George Loewenstein, and Don A. Moore. “Why Good Accountants Do Bad Audits.” Harvard Business Review, November 2002, 97–102.

Beckett, Andy. “Shaken Not Sturdy.” The Guardian, July 18, 2000.

Beinhocker, Eric D. The Origin of Wealth: Evolution, Complexity, and the Radical Remaking of Economics. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2006.

Belongia, Michael T. “Predicting Interest Rates: A Comparison of Professional and Market-Based Forecasts.” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, March 1987, 9–15.

Ben-Naim, Eli, Federico Vazquez, and Sidney Redner. “Parity and Predictability of Competitions.” Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 2, no. 4 (2006): 1–12.

Berreby, David. Us and Them: Understanding Your Tribal Mind. New York: Little, Brown and Company, 2005.

Berns, Gregory. Iconoclast: A Neuroscientist Reveals How to Think Differently. Boston: Harvard Business Press, 2008.

Berns, Gregory S., Jonathan Chappelow, Caroline F. Zink, Giuseppe Pagnoni, Megan Martin-Skurski, and Jim Richards. “Neurobiological Correlates of Social Conformity and Independence During Mental Rotation,” Biological Psychiatry 5, no. 8 (2005): 245–253.

Bernstein, Peter L. Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1996.

Bevelin, Peter. Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger. 3rd ed. Malmö, Sweden: Post Scriptum AB, 2007.

Blakeslee, Sandra. “What Other People Say May Change What You See.” New York Times, June 28, 2005.

Bloch, Arthur. Murphy’s Law: The 26th Anniversary Edition. New York: Perigee Trade, 2003.

Bonabeau, Eric. “Don’t Trust Your Gut.” Harvard Business Review, May 2003, 116–123.

Bonabeau, Eric, Marco Dorigo, and Guy Théraulaz. Swarm Intelligence: From Natural to Artificial Systems. New York: Oxford University Press, 1999.

Bonabeau, Eric, and Guy Théraulaz. “Swarm Smarts.” Scientific American, March 2000, 82–90.

Bookstaber, Richard. A Demon of Our Own Design: Markets, Hedge Funds, and the Perils of Financial Innovation. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2007.

Bower, Chuck, and Frank Frigo. “What Was Coach Thinking?” New York Times February 1, 2009.

Brodie, Richard. Virus of the Mind: The New Science of the Meme. Seattle, WA: Integral Press, 1996.

Buchanan, Bruce G., Randall Davis, and Edward A. Feigenbaum. “Expert Systems: A Perspective from Computer Science.” In The Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and Expert Performance, edited by K. Anders Ericsson, Neil Charness, Paul J. Feltovich, and Robert R. Hoffman, 87–103. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006.

Buehler, Roger, Dale Griffin, and Michael Ross. “Inside the Planning Fallacy: The Causes and Consequences of Optimistic Time Predictions.” In Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment, edited by Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, and Daniel Kahneman, 250–270. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002.

Buffett, Warren E. “Chairman’s Letter.” Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report to Shareholders, 1989.

___.“Chairman’s Letter.” Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report to Shareholders, 1996.

Bulmer, Michael. Francis Galton: Pioneer of Heredity and Biometry. Baltimore, MD: The John Hopkins University Press, 2003.

Burger, Jerry M. “Replicating Milgram: Would People Still Obey Today?” American Psychologist 64, no. 1 (2009): 1–11.

Camerer, Colin F., Teck-Hua Ho, and Juin-Kuan Chong. “A Cognitive Hierarchy Model of Games.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 119, no. 3 (2004): 861–898.

Carlile, Paul R., and Clayton M. Christensen. “The Cycles of Theory Building in Management Research.” Harvard Business School Working Paper Series, no. 05–057, 2005.

Chase, Alston. Playing God in Yellowstone: The Destruction of America’s First National Park. Boston: The Atlantic Monthly Press, 1986.

Chen, Jie, James S. Thorp, and Ian Dobson. “Cascading Dynamics and Mitigation Assessment in Power System Disturbances Via a Hidden Failure Model.” Electrical Power and Energy Systems 27 (2005): 318–326.

Chi, Michelene T. H., Robert Glaser, and Marshall Farr, eds. The Nature of Expertise. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 1988.

Christensen, Clayton M. The Innovator’s Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Companies to Fail. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1997.

Christensen, Clayton M., Matt Verlinden, and George Westerman. “Disruption, Disintegration and the Dissipation of Differentiability.” Industrial and Corporate Change 11, no. 5 (2002): 955–993.

Chun, Marvin M., and René Marois. “The Dark Side of Visual Attention.” Current Opinion in Neurobiology 12, no. 2 (2002): 184–189.

Cialdini, Robert B. Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion. Rev. ed. New York: Quill, 1993.

Clauset, Aaron, and Maxwell Young. “Scale Invariance in Global Terrorism.” arXiv physics, May 1, 2005.

Collins, Jim. Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap… and Others Don’t. New York: Harper Business, 2001.

Colvin, Geoff. Talent is Overrated: What Really Separates World-Class Performers from Everybody Else. New York: Portfolio, 2008.

Cootner, Paul H., ed. The Random Character of Stock Market Prices. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1964.

Cootner, Paul H. “Comments on The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices.” In The Random Character of Stock Market Prices, edited by Paul H. Cootner, 413–418. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1964.

Copeland, Tom, Tim Koller, and Jack Murrin. Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies, 3rd ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2000.

Cowgill, Bo, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitzewitz. “Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google.” Working paper, 2008.

Cutler, David M., James M. Poterba, and Lawrence H. Summers. “What Moves Stock Prices?” The Journal of Portfolio Management, 15, no. 3 (Spring 1989): 4–12.

Dallard, Pat, Tony Fitzpatrick, Anthony Flint, Angus Low, Roger Ridsdill Smith, Michael Willford, and Mark Roche. “London Millennium Bridge: Pedestrian-Induced Lateral Vibration.” Journal of Bridge Engineering 6, no. 6 (2001): 412–417.

Dalton, Rex. “Quarrel Over Book Leads to Call For Misconduct Inquiry.” Nature 431 (October 21, 2004): 889.

Damasio, Antonio. The Feeling of What Happens: Body and Emotion in the Making of Consciousness. New York: Harcourt Brace & Company, 1999.

Dawes, Robyn M., David Faust, and Paul E. Meehl. “Clinical versus Actuarial Judgment.” In Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment, edited by Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, and Daniel Kahneman, 716–729. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002.

Dawkins, Richard. The God Delusion. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 2006.

Deber, Raisa B. “Physicians in Health Care Management: The Patient-Physician Partnership: Decision Making, Problem Solving and the Desire to Participate.” Canadian Medical Association 151, no. 4 (1994): 423–427.

Denrell, Jerker. “Why Most People Disapprove of Me: Experience Sampling in Impression Formation.” Psychological Review 112, no. 4 (2005): 951–978.

DeVany, Arthur. Hollywood Economics: How Extreme Uncertainty Shapes the Film Industry. New York: Routledge, 2004.

Diamond, Jared. Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. New York: Viking, 2005.

Dixit, Avinash K., and Barry J. Nalebuff. The Art of Strategy: A Game Theorist’s Guide to Success in Business and Life New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2008.

Drucker, Peter F. Management Challenges for the 21st Century. New York: HarperBusiness, 1999.

Duke, Annie. Testimony before the House Committee on the Judiciary. November 14, 2007.

Duncker, Karl. “On Problem Solving.” Psychological Monographs 58, no. 270 (1945).

Dvorak, Phred. “Best Buy Taps ‘Prediction Market.’” Wall Street Journal, September 16, 2008.

Dye, Renée. “The Promise of Prediction Markets: A Roundtable.” The McKinsey Quarterly, no. 2 (2008): 83–93.

Eguiluz, Victor M., and Martin G. Zimmerman. “Transmission of Information and Herd Behavior: An Application to Financial Markets.” Physical Review Letters 85, no. 26 (2000): 5659–5662.

Ehrlich, Paul, and Brian Walker. “Rivets and Redundancy.” BioScience 48, no. 5 (1998): 387.

Eisenhardt, Kathleen M., and Donald N. Sull. “Strategy as Simple Rules.” Harvard Business Review, January 2001, 107–116.

Ellenberg, Jordan. “The Netflix Challenge: This Psychologist Might Outsmart the Math Brains Competing for the Netflix Prize.” Wired Magazine, March, 2008, 114–122.

Epley, Nicholas, and Thomas Gilovich. “The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic: Why the Adjustments Are Insufficient.” Psychological Science 17, no. 4 (2006): 311–318.

Ernst, Cécile, and Jules Angst. Birth Order: Its Influence on Personality. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1983.

Fauconnier, Gilles, and Mark Turner. The Way We Think: Conceptual Blending and the Mind’s Hidden Complexities. New York: Basic Books, 2002.

Feltovich, Paul J., Rand J. Spiro, and Richard L. Coulsen. “Issues of Expert Flexibility in Contexts Characterized by Complexity and Change.” In Expertise in Context: Human and Machine, edited by Paul J. Feltovich, Kenneth M. Ford, and Robert R. Hoffman, Menlo Park, CA, and Cambridge: AAAI Press and MIT Press, 1997.

Festinger, Leon, Henry W. Riecken, and Stanley Schachter. When Prophecy Fails: A Social and Psychological Study of a Modern Group that Predicted the Destruction of the World. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1956.

Forrester, Jay W. “Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems.” Testimony Before the Subcommittee on Urban Growth of the Committee on Banking and Currency, U.S. House of Representatives, October 7, 1970.

Freese, Jeremy, Brian Powell, and Lala Carr Steelman. “Rebel Without a Cause or Effect: Birth Order and Social Attitudes.” American Sociological Review 64, no. 2 (1999): 207–231.

French, Kenneth R. “Presidential Address: The Cost of Active Investing.” The Journal of Finance 63, no. 4 (2008): 1537–1573.

Freymuth, Angela K., and George F. Ronan. “Modeling Patient Decision-Making: The Role of Base-Rate and Anecdotal Information.” Journal of Clinical Psychology in Medical Settings 11, no. 3 (2004): 211–216.

Galinsky, Adam D., and Thomas Mussweiler. “First Offers as Anchors: The Role of Perspective-Taking and Negotiator Focus.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 81, no. 4 (2001): 657–669.

Galton, Francis. “Regression towards Mediocrity in Hereditary Stature.” Journal of the Anthropological Institute 15 (1886).

___. Natural Inheritance. London: MacMillan, 1889.

Gates, Dominic. “Boeing May Junk Worldwide Assembly for Next Jet.” Seattle Times, November 1, 2007.

Gawande, Atul. “The Checklist.” The New Yorker, December 10, 2007, 86–95.

___.“A Lifesaving Checklist.” New York Times, December 30, 2007.

Gawande, Atul A. MD, et al. “A Surgical Checklist to Reduce Morbidity and Mortality in a Global Population.” New England Journal of Medicine 360, no. 5 (2009): 491–499.

Gell-Mann, Murray. The Quark and the Jaguar: Adventures in the Simple and the Complex. New York: W.H. Freeman, 1994.

Gigerenzer, Gerd. Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious. New York: Viking, 2007.

Gilbert, Daniel. Stumbling on Happiness. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2006.

Gilovich, Thomas. How We Know What Isn’t So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life. New York: Free Press, 1991.

Gilovich, Thomas, Dacher Keltner, and Richard E. Nisbett. Social Psychology. New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2006.

Ginsberg, Matthew L. “Computers, Games and the Real World.” Scientific American Presents: Exploring Intelligence 9, no. 4 (1998), 84–89.

Gladwell, Malcolm. The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference. New York: Little, Brown and Company, 2000.

___. Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking. New York: Little, Brown and Company, 2005.

___. “Most Likely to Succeed: How Do We Hire When We Can’t Tell Who’s Right for the Job?” The New Yorker, December 15, 2008, 36–42.

Glaser, Barney G., and Anselm L. Strauss. The Discovery of Grounded Theory: Strategies for Qualitative Research. New Brunswick, NJ: Aldine, 1967.

Gode, Dhananjay K., and Shyam Sunder. “Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero Intelligence Traders: Market as a Partial Substitute for Individual Rationality.” The Journal of Political Economy 101, no. 1 (1993): 119–137.

Golman, Russell, and Scott E. Page, “General Blotto: Games of Allocative Strategic Mismatch,” Public Choice, 138, no. 3 (2009): 279–299.

Goldsmith, Susan. “Frank’s War.” East Bay Express, April 28, 2004.

Goldstein, Daniel G., Eric J. Johnson, Andreas Herrmann, and Mark Heitmann. “Nudge Your Customers Toward Better Choices.” Harvard Business Review, December 2008, 99–105.

Gonzales, Laurence. Deep Survival: Who Lives, Who Dies, and Why. New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2003.

___. Everyday Survival: Why Smart People Do Stupid Things. New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2008.

Goodman, Billy. “Thinking about Thinking.” Princeton Alumni Weekly, January 29, 2003, 26–27.

Goodwin, Doris Kearns. Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln. New York: Simon & Schuster, 2005.

Gould, Stephen Jay. Wonderful Life: The Burgess Shale and the Nature of History. New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1989.

___. Full House: The Spread of Excellence from Plato to Darwin. New York: Harmony Books, 1996.

Goyal, Amit, and Sunil Wahal. “The Selection and Termination of Investment Management Firms by Plan Sponsors.” The Journal of Finance 63, no. 4 (2008): 1805–1847.

Graham, John R., Campbell R. Harvey, and Shiva Rajgopal. “Value Destruction and Financial Reporting Decisions.” Financial Analysts Journal 62, no. 6 (2006): 27–39.

Greenspan, Alan. Testimony to the Committee of Government Oversight and Reform, October 23, 2008.

Greenspan, Stephen. “Why We Keep Falling for Financial Scams.” Wall Street Journal, January 3, 2009.

___. Annals of Gullibility: Why We Get Duped and How to Avoid It. Westport, CT: Praeger, 2009.

Groopman, Jerome. How Doctors Think. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 2007.

Grove, William M., David H. Zald, Boyd S. Lebow, Beth E. Snitz, and Chad Nelson. “Clinical Versus Mechanical Prediction: A Meta-Analysis.” Psychological Assessment 12, no. 1 (2000): 19–30.

Groysberg, Boris, Ashish Nanda, and Nitin Nohria. “The Risky Business of Hiring Stars.” Harvard Business Review, May 2004: 92–100.

Groysberg, Boris, Lex Sant, and Robin Abrams. “How to Minimize the Risks of Hiring Outside Stars.” Wall Street Journal, September 22, 2008.

Guerrera, Francesco. “Merrill Losses Wipe Away Longtime Profits.” Financial Times, August 28, 2008.

Guerrera, Francesco, and Julie MacIntosh. “Luck Played Part in Rohm and Haas Deal.” The Financial Times, July 10, 2008.

Halberstam, David. The Education of a Coach. New York: Hyperion, 2005.

Hamel, Gary, with Bill Breen. The Future of Management. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2007.

Hansell, Saul. “Google Answer to Filling Jobs Is an Algorithm.” New York Times, January 3, 2007.

Harris, Judith Rich. The Nurture Assumption: Why Children Turn Out the Way They Do. New York: Free Press, 1998.

___. No Two Alike: Human Nature and Human Individuality. New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2006.

Hastie, Reid, and Robyn M. Dawes. Rational Choice in an Uncertain World. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, 2001.

Hogarth, Robin M. Educating Intuition. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 2001.

Holland, John H. Hidden Order: How Adaption Builds Complexity. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1995.

Holland, Rob W., Merel Hendriks, and Henk Aarts. “Smells Like Clean Spirit: Nonconscious Effects of Scent on Cognition and Behavior.” Psychological Science 16, no. 9 (2005): 689–693.

Horgan, John. The Undiscovered Mind: How the Human Brain Defies Replication, Medication, and Explanation. New York: Free Press, 1999.

Hotelling, Harold. “Reviewed work: The Triumph of Mediocrity in Business by Horace Secrist.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 28, no. 184 (1933): 463–465.

Huettel, Scott A., Peter B. Mack, and Gregory McCarthy. “Perceiving Patterns in Random Series: Dynamic Processing of Sequence in Prefrontal Cortex.” Nature Neuroscience 5, no. 5 (2002): 485–490.

James, William. The Principles of Psychology, vol. 1. New York: Henry Holt & Co., 1890.

Janis, Irving. Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes. 2nd ed. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1982.

Jensen, Michael C. “The Performance of Mutual Funds in the Period 1945–1964.” The Journal of Finance 23, no. 2 (1968): 389–416.

Johnson, Eric J., and Daniel Goldstein. “Do Defaults Save Lives?” Science 302 (November 21, 2003): 1338–1339.

Johnson, Steven. Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software. New York: Scribner, 2001.

Johnson-Laird, Philip N. Mental Models. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1983.

___. “Mental Models and Reasoning.” In The Nature of Reasoning, edited by Jacqueline P. Leighton, and Robert J. Sternberg, 169–204. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004.

___. How We Reason. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006.

Kahneman, Daniel. “Maps of Bounded Rationality: A Perspective on Intuitive Judgment and Choice.” Nobel Prize Lecture, December 8, 2002.

Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Making Under Risk.” Econmetrica 47, no. 2 (1979): 263–291.

Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. “Intuitive Prediction: Biases and Corrective Procedures.” In Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, edited by Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky, 414–421. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982.

Kahneman, Danny. “A Short Course in Thinking about Thinking.” Edge.org, 2007.

Katz, Elihu, and Paul F. Lazarsfeld. Personal Influence: The Part Played by People in the Flow of Mass Communications. New York: Free Press, 1955.

Kaufman, Peter D., ed. Poor Charlie’s Almanack. Expanded 2nd ed. Virginia Beach, VA: PCA Publication, 2006.

Kelly, J. L., Jr. “A New Interpretation of Information Rate.” Bell System Technical Journal (1956): 917–926.

Kenny, David A. Correlation and Causality. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1979.

Kepner, Tyler. “With Only 150 Games to Go, Steinbrenner Checks In.” New York Times, April 18, 2005.

Kerr, Michael E., and Murray Bowen. Family Evaluation: The Role of the Family as an Emotional Unit that Governs Individual Behavior and Development. New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1988.

Kierkegaard, Søren. The Diary of Søren Kierkegaard. NewYork: Carol Publishing Group, 1993.

Klein, Gary. Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1998.

___. “Performing a Project Premortem.” Harvard Business Review, September 2007, 18–19.

Klingberg, Torkel. The Overflowing Brain: Information Overload and the Limits of Working Knowledge. New York: Oxford University Press, 2009.

Klinger, David. Into the Kill Zone: A Cop’s Eye View of Deadly Force. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 2004.

Kluger, Jeffrey. Simplexity: Why Simple Things Become Complex (and How Complex Things Can Be Made Simple). New York: Hyperion, 2008.

Kruger, Justin, and David Dunning. “Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 77, no. 6 (1999): 1121–1134.

Kuzmits, Frank E., and Arthur J. Adams. “The NFL Combine: Does It Predict Performance in the National Football League?” The Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research 22, no. 6 (2008): 1721–1727.

Langer, Ellen J. “The Illusion of Control.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 32, no. 2 (1975): 311–328.

LeBaron, Blake. “Financial Market Efficiency in a Coevolutionary Environment.” Proceedings of the Workshop on Simulation of Social Agents: Architectures and Institutions, Argonne National Laboratory and University of Chicago, October 2000, Argonne 2001, 33–51.

LeDoux, Joseph. The Emotional Brain: The Mysterious Underpinnings of Emotional Life. New York: Touchstone, 1996.

Leinweber, David J. “Stupid Data Miner Tricks: Overfitting the S&P 500.” Journal of Investing, 16, no. 1 (2007): 15–22.

Leonhardt, David. “Why Doctors So Often Get It Wrong.” New York Times, February 22, 2006.

Lewis, Michael. Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game. New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2003.

___. “The Natural-Catastrophe Casino.” New York Times Magazine, August 26, 2007.

___. “Wall Street on the Tundra.” Vanity Fair, April 2009, 140–147, 173–177.

Loewenstein, George F., Elke U. Weber, Christopher K. Hsee, and Ned Welch. “Risk as Feelings.” Psychological Bulletin 127, no. 2 (2001): 267–286.

Lohr, Steve. “Betting to Improve the Odds.” New York Times, April 9, 2008.

Lovallo, Dan, and Daniel Kahneman. “Delusions of Success.” Harvard Business Review, July 2003, 56–63.

Loveman, Gary. “Diamonds in the Data Mine.” Harvard Business Review, May 2003, 109–113.

Lowenstein, Roger. When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management. New York: Random House, 2000.

Lunsford, J. Lynn. “Boeing Scrambles to Repair Problems with New Plane.” Wall Street Journal, December 7, 2007.

___. “Outsourcing at Crux of Boeing Strike.” Wall Street Journal, September 8, 2008.

MacGregor, Donald G. “Imagery and Financial Judgment.” The Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets 3, no. 1 (2002): 15–22.

Mack, Arien, and Irvin Rock. Inattentional Blindness. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1998.

MacKenzie, Donald. An Engine, Not a Camera: How Financial Models Shape Markets. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2006.

Malhotra, Deepak, and Max H. Bazerman. Negotiation Genius: How to Overcome Obstacles and Achieve Brilliant Results at the Bargaining Table and Beyond. New York: Bantam Books, 2007.

Malkiel, Burton G. “Returns from Investing in Equity Mutual Funds 1971–1991.” The Journal of Finance 50, no. 2 (1995): 549–572.

Malmendier, Ulrike, and Geoffrey Tate. “Superstar CEOs.” Working paper 14140, NBER, June 2008.

Mandel, Naomi, and Eric J. Johnson. “When Web Pages Influence Choice: Effects of Visual Primes on Experts and Novices.” Journal of Consumer Research 29, no. 2 (2002): 235–245.

Mandelbrot, Benoit. “The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices.” In The Random Character of Stock Market Prices, edited by Paul H. Cootner, 369–412. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1964.

Mandelbrot, Benoit, and Richard L. Hudson. The (Mis) Behavior of Markets. New York: Basic Books, 2004.

March, James G. A Primer on Decision Making: How Decisions Happen. New York: Free Press, 1994.

Mauboussin, Michael. “Where Fools Rush In.” Time, November 4, 2006, A44.

Mauboussin, Michael J. “Common Errors in DCF Models.” Mauboussin on Strategy, March 23, 2006.

___. “Explaining the Wisdom of Crowds: Applying the Logic of Diversity.” Mauboussin on Strategy, March 20, 2007.

___. “What Good Are Experts?” Harvard Business Review, February 2008, 43–44.

May, Robert M. Complexity and Stability in Model Ecosystems. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1974.

May, Robert M., Simon A. Levin, and George Sugihara. “Ecology for Bankers.” Nature 451 (February 21, 2008): 893–895.

Maymin, Philip. “Music and the Market: Song and Stock Market Volatility.” Working paper, SSRN, November 4, 2008.

McCloskey, Deirdre N. If You’re So Smart: The Narrative of Economic Expertise. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1990.

McClure, Samuel M., David I Laibson, George Loewsenstein, and Jonathan D. Cohen. “Separate Neural Systems Value Immediate and Delayed Monetary Rewards.” Science 306 (October 15, 2004): 503–507.

Meehl, Paul E. Clinical versus Statistical Prediction: A Theoretical Analysis and a Review of the Evidence. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1954.

Merton, Robert K. “The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action.” American Sociological Review 1, no. 6 (1936): 894–904.

Milgram, Stanley. Obedience to Authority. New York: Harper & Row, 1974.

Miller, John H., and Scott E. Page. Complex Adaptive Systems: An Introduction to Computational Models of Social Life. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007.

Miller, Peter. “The Genius of Swarms.” National Geographic, July 2007, 126–147.

Minsky, Hyman P. Stabilizing an Unstable Economy. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1986.

Mirowski, Philip. The Effortless Economy of Science? Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 2004.

Mitchell, Deborah J., J. Edward Russo, and Nancy Pennington. “Back to the Future: Temporal Perspective in the Explanation of Events.” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 2, No. 1 (1989): 25–38.

Moore, Don A., Philip E. Tetlock, Lloyd Tanlu, and Max H. Bazerman. “Conflicts of Interest and the Case of Auditor Independence: Moral Seduction and Strategic Issue Cycling.” Academy of Management Review 31, no. 1 (2006): 10–29.

Morgan, Stephen L., and Christopher Winship, eds. Counterfactuals and Causal Inference: Methods and Principles for Social Research. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007.

Morris, Michael W., and Kaiping Peng. “Culture and Cause: American and Chinese Attributions for Social and Physical Events.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 67, no. 6 (1994): 949–971.

Murphy, Ray, and Rod Truesdell, eds. Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster 2008. Roanoke, VA: Shandler Enterprises, 2007.

Myers, David G. Intuition: Its Powers and Perils. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2002.

Nagel, Rosemarie. “Unraveling in Guessing Games: An Experimental Study.” American Economic Review 85, no. 5 (1995): 1313–1326.

Nakamoto, Michiyo, and David Wighton. “Citigroup Chief Stays Bullish on Buy Outs.” The Financial Times, July 9, 2007.

Newman, M.E.J. “Power Laws, Pareto Distributions and Zipf’s Law.” arXiv:cond-mat, May 29, 2006.

Niesewand, Nonie. “Will Norman Foster and Anthony Caro Cross the Thames in a Blade of Light?” The Independent, September 25, 1997.

Nickerson, Raymond S. “Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises.” Review of General Psychology 2, no. 2 (1998): 175–220.

Nisbett, Richard E. The Geography of Thought: How Asians and Westerners Think Differently… and Why. New York: Free Press, 2003.

North, Adrian C., David J. Hargreaves, and Jennifer McKendrick. “In-store Music Affects Product Choice.” Nature 390 (November 13, 2007): 13.

Nocera, Joe. “On Oil Supply, Opinions Aren’t Scarce.” New York Times, September 10, 2005.

Northcraft, Gregory B., and Margaret A. Neale. “Experts, Amateurs, and Real Estate: An Anchoring-and-Adjustment Perspective on Property Pricing Decisions.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 39, no. 1 (1987): 84–97.

O’Halloran, Ryan. “A ‘Foregone Conclusion’?” Washington Times, May 30, 2008.

Page, Scott E. “Path Dependence,” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 1, no. 1 (2006): 87–115.

___. The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007.

Paulos, John Allen. A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper. New York: Basic Books, 1995.

Pearl, Judea. Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000.

Pedulla, Tom. “Big Brown Makes His Run at Immortality.” USA Today, June 6, 2008.

Perrow, Charles. Normal Accidents: Living with High-Risk Technologies. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1999.

Pierson, Paul. Politics in Time: History, Institutions, and Social Analysis. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2004.

Pinker, Steven. How the Mind Works. New York: W.W Norton & Company, 1997.

___. The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature. New York: Viking, 2002.

Plassmann, Hilke, John O’Doherty, Baba Shiv, and Antonio Rangel. “Marketing Actions Can Modulate Neural Representations of Experienced Pleasantness.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105, no. 3 (2008): 1050–1054.

Plott, Charles R., and Vernon L. Smith, eds. Handbook of Experimental Economics Results: vol. 1. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 2008.

Poundstone, William. Fortune’s Formula: The Untold Story of the Unscientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street. New York: Hill and Wang, 2005.

Pronovost, Peter. “Testimony before Government Oversight Committee,” April 16, 2008.

Rappaport, Alfred, and Michael J. Mauboussin. Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2001.

Reason, James. Human Error. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990.

Redelmeier, Donald A., Paul Rozin, and Daniel Kahneman. “Understanding Patients’ Decisions: Cognitive and Emotional Perspectives.” The Journal of the American Medical Association 270, no. 1 (1993): 72–76.

Roberson, Brian. “The Colonel Blotto Game.” Economic Theory 29, no. 1 (2006): 1–24.

Roese, Neal J., and James M. Olsen, eds. What Might Have Been: The Social Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 1994.

Romer, David. “Do Firms Maximize? Evidence from Professional Football.” The Journal of Political Economy 114, no. 2 (2006): 340–365.

Rosenbaum, Paul R. Observational Studies, 2nd ed. New York: Springer, 2002.

Rosenzweig, Phil. The Halo Effect… and the Eight Other Business Delusions That Deceive Managers. New York: Free Press, 2007.

___. “The Halo Effect and Other Managerial Delusions.” The McKinsey Quarterly, no. 1 (February 2007): 77–85.

Ross, Lee. “The Intuitive Psychologist and His Shortcomings.” In Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, edited by Leonard Berkowitz, 173–220. New York: Academic Press, 1977.

Russell, Bertrand. The Problems of Philosophy. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1959.

Russo, J. Edward, and Paul J. H. Schoemaker. Winning Decisions: Getting It Right the First Time. New York: Doubleday, 2002.

Salganik, Matthew J., Peter Sheridan Dodds, and Duncan J. Watts. “Experimental Study of Inequality and Unpredictability in an Artificial Cultural Market.” Science 311 (February 10, 2006): 854–856.

Salmon, Felix. “Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Street.” Wired Magazine, March 2009, 74–79, 112.

Sapolsky, Robert M. Why Zebras Don’t Get Ulcers: An Updated Guide to Stress, Stress-Related Disease, and Coping. New York: W.H. Freeman and Company, 1994.

Schelling, Thomas C. Micromotives and Macrobehavior. New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1978.

Schultz, Steven. “Freshman Learn About Thinking from Nobel Laureate.” Princeton Weekly Bulletin 94, no. 3 (2004).

Secrist, Horace. The Triumph of Mediocrity in Business. Evanston, IL: Bureau of Business Research, Northwestern University, 1933.

Seeley, Thomas D. The Wisdom of the Hive. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1995.

Seeley, Thomas D., P. Kirk Visscher, and Kevin M. Passino. “Group Decision Making in Honey Bee Swarms.” American Scientist 94, no. 3 (2006): 220–229.

Seeley, Thomas D., and P. Kirk Visscher. “Sensory Coding of Nest-site Value in Honeybee Swarms.” The Journal of Experimental Biology 211, no. 23 (2008): 3691–3697.

Shannon, B., J. Peacock, and M. J. Brown. “Body fatness, television viewing and calorie-intake of a sample of Pennsylvania sixth grade children.” Journal of Nutrition Education 23, no. 6 (1991): 262–268.

Shapiro, Carl, and Hal Varian. Information Rules: A Strategic Guide to the Network Economy. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1998.

Shefrin, Hersh. Behavioral Corporate Finance: Decisions That Create Value. New York: McGraw-Hill, 2007.

Simon, Herbert A. “The Architecture of Complexity.” Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society 106, no. 6 (1962): 467–482.

___. The Sciences of the Artificial, 3rd ed. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1996.

Simons, Daniel J., and Christopher F. Chabris. “Gorillas in Our Midst: Sustained Inattentional Blindness for Dynamic Events.” Perception 28, no. 9 (1999): 1059–1074.

Sirower, Mark L. The Synergy Trap: How Companies Lose the Acquisition Game. New York: Free Press, 1997.

Slovic, Paul, Melissa Finucane, Ellen Peters, and Donald G. MacGregor. “The Affect Heuristic.” In Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment, edited by Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, and Daniel Kahneman, 397–420. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002.

Smith, Douglas W., and Gary Ferguson. Decade of the Wolf: Returning the Wild to Yellowstone. Guilford, CT: The Lyons Press, 2005.

Smith, Vernon L. Rationality in Economics: Constructivist and Ecological Forms. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008.

Sornette, Didier. Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2003.

Stanovich, Keith E. What Intelligence Tests Miss: The Psychology of Rational Thought. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2009.

Stecklow, Steve, and Diya Gullapalli. “A Money-Fund Manager’s Fateful Shift.” Wall Street Journal, December 8, 2008.

Steinwald, A. Bruce. “Primary Care Professionals: Recent Supply Trends, Projections, and Valuation of Services.” Testimony Before the Committee on Health Education, Labor, and Pensions, U.S. Senate, February 12, 2008.

Sterman, John D. Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Boston: Irwin McGraw-Hill, 2000.

Sterman, John D., and Linda Booth Sweeney. “Managing Complex Dynamic Systems: Challenge and Opportunity for Naturalistic Decision-Making Theory.” In How Professionals Make Decisions, edited by Henry Montgomery, Raanan Lipshitz, and Berndt Brehmer, 57–90. Mahway, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 2005.

Stigler, Stephen M. The History of Statistics: The Measurement of Uncertainty before 1990. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1986.

___. Statistics on the Table: The History of Statistical Concepts and Methods. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1999.

___. “Milton Friedman and Statistics.” In The Collected Writings of Milton Friedman, edited by Robert Leeson. New York: Routledge, forthcoming.

Strogatz, Steven. Sync: The Emerging Science of Spontaneous Order. New York: Hyperion, 2003.

Strogatz, Steven H., Daniel M. Abrams, Allan McRobie, Bruno Eckhardt, and Edward Ott. “Crowd Synchrony on the Millennium Bridge.” Nature 483 (November 3, 2005): 43–44.

Sudjic, Deyan. Blade of Light: The Story of London’s Millennium Bridge. London: Penguin Books, 2001.

Sulloway, Frank J. Born to Rebel: Birth Order, Family Dynamics, and Creative Lives. New York: Pantheon, 1996.

Sunder, Shyam. “Relationship Between Accounting Changes and Stock Prices: Problems of Measurement and Some Empirical Evidence.” Journal of Accounting Research: Empirical Research in Accounting: Selected Studies 1973 11 (1973): 1–45.

Sunstein, Cass R. Why Societies Need Dissent. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2003.

___. Infotopia: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006.

Surowiecki, James The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies, and Nations. New York: Doubleday and Company, 2004.

___. “Did Lehman Brothers’ Failure Matter?” The New Yorker.com, March 9, 2009.

Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets, 2nd ed. New York: Thomson Texere, 2004.

___. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. New York: Random House, 2007.

Tavris, Carol, and Elliot Aronson, Mistakes Were Made (but not by me): Why We Justify Foolish Beliefs, Bad Decisions, and Hurtful Acts Orlando, FL: Harcourt, Inc., 2007.

Taylor, Shelley E., and Jonathan D. Brown. “Illusion and Well-Being: A Social Psychological Perspective on Mental Health.” Psychological Bulletin 103, no. 2 (1988): 193–210.

Tetlock, Philip E. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2005.

Thaler, Richard H. “Anomalies: The Winner’s Curse.” The Journal of Economic Perspectives 2, no. 1 (1988): 191–202.

___. “Anomalies: The Ultimatum Game.” The Journal of Economic Perspectives 2, no. 4 (1988): 195–206.

___. “From Homo Economicus to Homo Sapiens.” The Journal of Economic Perspectives 14, no. 1 (2000): 133–141.

Thaler, Richard H., and Cass R. Sunstein. Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2008.

Thompson, Clive. “If You Liked This, You’re Sure to Love That.” New York Times Magazine, November 23, 2008.

Thorndike, Edward L. “A Constant Error in Psychological Ratings.” Journal of Applied Psychology 4, no. 1 (1920): 469–477.

Thorp, Edward O. The Mathematics of Gambling. Hollywood, CA: Gambling Times, 1984.

Tilson, Whitney, and Glenn Tongue, More Mortgage Meltdown: 6 Ways to Profit in These Bad Times. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2009.

Tomlinson, Richard, and Paola Hjelt, “Dethroning Percy Barnevik,” Fortune International, April 1, 2002, 38–41.

Townsend, Frederic. “Birth Order and Rebelliousness: Reconstructing the Research in Born to Rebel.” Politics and the Life Sciences 19, no. 2 (2000): 135–156.

Treynor, Jack L. “Market Efficiency and the Bean Jar Experiment.” Financial Analysts Journal, May–June 1987, 50–53.

Turner, Mark. The Literary Mind. New York: Oxford University Press, 1996.

Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. “Belief in the Law of Small Numbers.” Psychological Bulletin 76, no. 2 (1971): 105–110.

___. “Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” Science 185, no. 4157 (1974): 1124–1131.

Tyszka, Tadeusz, and Piotr Zielonka. “Expert Judgments: Financial Analysts Versus Weather Forecasters.” The Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets 3, no. 3 (2002): 152–160.

Vedantam, Shankar. “Vote Your Conscience. If You Can.” Washington Post, December 31, 2007, A3.

Waitzkin, Josh. The Art of Learning: A Journey in the Pursuit of Excellence. New York: Free Press, 2007.

Wallace, James. “Boeing Executive Faults Some 787 Suppliers.” Seattle Post-Intelligencer, November 1, 2007.

Watts, Duncan J. “A Simple Model of Global Cascades on Random Networks.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 99, no. 9, April 30, 2002: 5766–5771.

___. Six Degrees: The Science of a Connect Age. New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2003.

___. “Is Justin Timberlake a Product of Cumulative Advantage?” New York Times Magazine, April 15, 2007.

Weinstein, Neil D. “Unrealistic Optimism about Future Life Events.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 39, no. 5 (1980): 806–820.

West, Geoffrey B., and James H. Brown. “Life’s Universal Scaling Laws.” Physics Today, September 2004, 36–42.

Westen, Drew, Pavel S. Blagov, Keith Harenski, Clint Kilts, and Stephan Hamann. “Neural Bases of Motivated Reasoning: An fMRI Study of Emotional Constraints on Partisan Political Judgment in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election.” Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience 18, no. 11 (2006): 1947–1958.

Westen, Drew. The Political Brain: The Role of Emotion in Deciding the Fate of the Nation. New York: Public Affairs, 2007.

Wiseman, Richard. Did You Spot the Gorilla? How to Recognize Hidden Opportunities. London: Random House, 2004.

Wolff, Alexander. “SI Flashback: That Old Black Magic.” Sports Illustrated, January 21, 2002.

Wolpert, Lewis. Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast: The Evolutionary Origins of Belief. New York: W.W. Norton, 2007.

Yariv, Leeat. “I’ll See It When I Believe It—A Simple Model of Cognitive Consistency.” Discussion paper no. 1352, Cowles Foundation, February 2002.

Zajonc, R. B., ed. The Selected Works of R. B. Zajonc. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2004.

Zimbardo, Philip. The Lucifer Effect: Understanding How Good People Turn Evil. New York: Random House, 2007.

Zweig, Jason. “Do You Sabotage Yourself? Daniel Kahneman Has Done More Than Anyone Else to Explain Why Most of Us Make So Many Mistakes as Investors—And What We Can Do About It.” Money, May 1, 2001.

___. “Peter Bernstein Interview: He May Know More About Investing than Anyone Alive.” Money, October 15, 2004, 143–148.

___. Your Money and Your Brain: How the New Science of Neuroeconomics Can Help Make You Rich. New York: Simon & Schuster, 2007.

..................Content has been hidden....................

You can't read the all page of ebook, please click here login for view all page.
Reset
13.59.96.247