CHAPTER 12
Epilogue

All books that start with a prologue – albeit one in this case that is so apparently straightforward as asking what is meant by both money and banking – deserve a proper ending. Whilst this book may have reached an end, the story of AI is very much at a beginning, not only with regard to the banking industry but relative to all industries and professions.

To consider the future of banking, AI aided or otherwise, we need to be able to think about the future of money. We recognise that the nature of its current existence has arisen not instantaneously but rather through a form of evolution. In closing his book ‘The Ascent of Money’, Niall Fergusson refers to the ‘Descent of Money’ as if it's entered some form of downwards spiral. I would argue that the direction is not ‘downwards’, but rather that it is simply responding to a volatile environment of change that embraces not only AI but also Blockchain, Open Banking and whatever else proves to be the ‘next big thing’.

Fergusson also suggests that there is an inherent instability of the money system, driven in part by our own human behaviour, which is increasingly changing to align to the digital age but also because of the ‘hard-wired fallibility’ of human beings. It seems more evident that ‘we’ as humans could be the ‘weakest link’ in the financial process of the future.

In evolutionary terms, organisations that have proved ultimately to be ‘unfit’, such as some of the major US investment banks like Lehman Brothers, have simply failed to exist, or have transformed into new organisations. But it's important to distinguish between the natural selection process of Charles Darwin and the impact of man-made changes in the regulatory system. Darwin's approach suggests a form of randomness; regulation, on the other hand, is a man-made, systematic response to the pressures and challenges of the marketplace and designed to protect the end user.

Money has been on an evolutionary process of change for several thousand years, but AI is a much younger entity. It was only really considered less than 100 years ago, even if the concept of mathematical analysis and algorithmic insight is a couple of centuries older. Which of these then will take the leading path, and which will be the follower? To what degree will the principle and evolution of money impact on the development of AI and vice versa, if at all? The two are now unlikely to exist in absolute isolation. After all, what really is money nowadays but ‘data’? And what ultimately is AI other than a highly intelligent way of using data in all its forms and in multiple iterations?

Both are heavily regulated industries but operating in different spheres. Currently there is limited overlap between the regulators of the banking systems and the regulators of data, but convergence seems unavoidable. Both industries have their own sets of rules. In a digital environment the ‘Laws of Data’ may not necessarily take precedence over the ‘Rules of Banking’ but both are bound to be heavily influenced by each other. It doesn't seem to be a level playing field. Banks are increasingly trying to perform like technology companies but tech companies perhaps just see banking as another route to market for them, alongside all the other industries.

Banks of the Future will ultimately comprise some sort of convergence of technological and financial capabilities that will impact not only on the way they operate, but on roles and responsibilities. Banking is in a transformative period and everything will be affected. It is not simply a matter of roles and professions disappearing, never to be replaced, but rather that both will ‘reinvent themselves’ into new, analytically driven, AI-infused functions, which will merge the new with the old.

Banking and money as we know both them will never ‘die’ but rather will change with the times. ‘Banking 4.0’ was discussed at the very beginning of this book, an expression that represents the banking industry in what we now describe as the Fourth Industrial Revolution, but ‘Banking 5.0’ is one day to follow. What is the next iteration of revolution and how will it affect the overall picture?

It's probable that there will be an increasing emphasis by AI on the environment, rather than the current focus on economy or business applications. After all, the environmental issue is an urgent one and seems to be the zeitgeist of the moment. New terms are already being expressed, such as ‘Environmental Accounting’. ‘Banking 5.0’ may well be all about the Environmental Era, and the ‘environmental value of money’.

There's little disagreement that because of AI, every element of banking as we know it will be transformed. The concept of money will continue in some form but is likely to become increasingly digital. The AI genie is now well and truly out of the bottle, and with a mandate to focus on data and digitalisation, who really knows where that journey will take us?

In banking, are all these changes something to be worried about? It rather depends on whether you are a customer, employee, manager or leader as each will be affected in their own specific ways. My guess is that customers are likely to benefit the most, followed closely by stockholders of banks and then by tech companies. Employees sitting ‘in the middle’ will have a harder time, especially as their traditional career progression paths will be affected. The HR department will especially need to take a long, hard look at itself and the whole concept of personal performance management and personal annual objectives will need to be seriously revisited. There will be new employment challenges for a new age.

On an AI-infused, technologically level playing field, maybe all that will matter in banking is that of brand and how it relates to our personal view of the world. In terms of scope of stretching their brand, banks will be limited only by their own ambition to infuse, support and help manage every part of our lives. They already play a big part but could play an even bigger one, having a role in our health and education provision, our employment arrangements, our provision in old age, where and how we live, how we travel, how we enjoy ourselves and in other areas of our lives. All these will ultimately be interconnected by AI, and the possibilities are endless.

In the same way that football fans are supporters for life, some brought onto the terraces as youngsters and ultimately having their cremated ashes sprinkled between the goalposts, perhaps we might remain customers of the same bank ‘for life’. For those who receive the best and most appropriate support, the temptation of Open Banking will hold no attraction. After all, fear of the unknown has always been an element of the human condition.

What will ultimately become of money and therefore of banking in the future? In all honesty, it is difficult to say precisely, but both will become different in some way and when that happens, historians will recognise AI as being one of the major catalysts for that change. One thing is ‘probably’ certain: both will still exist in some form. The Greek philosopher Euripides (c. 485–406 BC) made the point that ‘Money is the wise man's religion’. Fortunately, for the moment there are still enough wise humans around who need this particular type of religion, at least until they are replaced by robots….

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