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Conclusions – what’s next?
The following are some concluding thoughts and predictions about embodied and whole life carbon (WLC) for the near future.
WLC assessment
Carbon emissions assessment, standards and ultimately legislation will evolve from considering solely operational emissions to whole life emissions. This will start with the launch of the InnovateUK project document, ‘Whole Life Carbon Measurement: Implementation in the built environment’, available through the UKGBC website. This will then evolve into the RICS Professional Statement in late 2017, followed quickly by BREEAM 2018, and will lead directly to planning authorities taking up WLC. Ultimately the Building Regulations will also have to take on board WLC, possibly through Allowable Solutions.
Life cycle analysis
LCA will become a vital part of good building design practice. It will enable designers to look past practical completion to the overall performance of the building over its intended life, and as such will be an essential design tool. Building purchasers will also require an LCA as part of the sales information to fully understand what they are taking on from the perspective of quality and the likely impacts of future climate change.
Carbon and money
Carbon cost analysis and marginal abatement cost curve analysis will become standard practice at design stage to ensure full cost/benefit analyses of the designers’ carbon, cost and life cycle options are undertaken. This will provide economic understanding and authority to choices made.
Climate change
The impacts of future climate change will need to be understood and factored into design thinking and life cycle analysis as a matter of course. Buildings that are not immediately capable of managing the consequences of predicted temperature increases will at least need to be capable of economical future adaptation.
Circular economy
Circular economic thinking and optimising resource efficiency will become a key part of WLC-based design. Designing with recycled content will increase and designers will design for easy disassembly and reuse as standard.
Existing buildings
WLC analysis demonstrates the value of retaining and retrofitting existing structures and fabric. It also shows the value of building durable buildings. Georgian and Victorian housing units have proved a very good carbon investment given their long life. Will today’s housing prove as resilient for the future? In many cases, the answer is probably not. In the context of climate change and diminishing resources, this is short-term thinking. Especially given our growing population, we need buildings to do their job for at least a century.
Health and wellbeing
Low carbon design must include the use of healthy materials, a healthy environment, and the wellbeing of the occupants. These principles work together and, in a sense, amplify each other to produce better buildings.
Improving WLC
There is still a lot to do to ensure a rigorous approach to WLC is in place. The RICS Professional Statement and BREEAM 2018 will be a start, but these will need to evolve. After all, operational assessment tools such as SAP, SBEM, EPCs and Part L calculations for planning are all notoriously inaccurate, despite many years of experience.
Industry’s role
Industry will continue to lead in the evolution of WLC, the use of LCAs and engagement with circular economic principles. Standards and regulation will need to follow to maintain the pressure.
Data
Accessing reliable data will still be problematic. The likely solution will be to focus on a single database (BS EN 15804- and EPD-compliant) that is continually updated. This role was previously held by the Bath ICE database by Dr Craig Jones;1 however, this has not been updated for many years and was not compatible with BS EN 15804 or current EPDs.
The role of architects
If they engage with WLC, architects will move to the centre of issues such as resource efficiency, LCA, low carbon buildings and the circular economy. All these issues come down to a better choice of materials, and better buildings. This, ultimately, is what architects are about.