A development property is defined in the International Valuation Standards (IVS 410) as a property ‘where redevelopment is required to achieve the optimum use, or where improvements are either being contemplated or are in progress at the valuation date’. This includes undeveloped land, the redevelopment of previously developed land for the same or alternative uses and the improvement and alteration of existing buildings.
A development property is, therefore, a hypothetical construct because it does not exist at the time of the valuation. It cannot be inspected, measured, surveyed; it can only be imagined. The definition states that the development should be to the optimum use, so that provides a steer, but valuers are likely to vary in their opinions of the optimum use when it is precisely defined in the valuation. Therefore, sensitivity analysis and scenario modelling may form part of the valuation of development property.
As with the valuation of investment property, valuations of development property can be undertaken using various valuation bases, primarily market value and investment value.
The market value of a property will reflect its highest and best (or optimum) use, and this includes alternative uses as well as the existing use. These alternative uses must be possible, legally permissible, and financially feasible. As such, they can include development or redevelopment potential, having regard to current and prospective economic and market circumstances and planning conditions. So, the market value of a development property refers to its optimum value assuming (re)development.
This means the valuation is likely to be the subject of special assumptions concerning the proposed or anticipated development in addition to the usual ones associated with a market valuation of an existing use. Examples include:
It may be that a market valuation assuming existing use and market valuation assuming development to an optimum alternative use (or an improved existing use) are both required.
The extent of information necessary for a valuation is determined by a range of factors including the stage at which the valuation is being prepared, the purpose and the individual characteristics of the property being valued, and any assumptions or special assumptions made. As well as the factors listed in Chapter 5, the planning regime is an important factor in the value of development property and particular consideration should be paid to (RICS 2019, pp. 36–7):
When assessing development potential, it is important to specify the proposed development and make assumptions clear in the valuation report. It may be necessary to consider what planning consent might be forthcoming, together with any conditions and obligations.
An assessment of the form and extent of the physical development that can be accommodated on the site is essential, having regard to site features, characteristics of the surrounding area and the likelihood of obtaining permission. Matters that may need to be considered include:
Market valuations of development property are normally undertaken in two ways, the comparison method and the residual method, and one can be used to cross‐check the other.
The comparison method is normally preferred, but it does require information on similar assets in a similar location. In the case of development property, valuation by comparison is potentially reliable if evidence of sales can be found and analysed on a common unit basis, such as price per hectare, site price as a proportion of the value of the completed development or price per unit or habitable room. Care is required because simple unit metrics can hide factors that may influence value in individual cases.
The comparison method may be most appropriate where there is an active market and/or a relatively straightforward low‐density form of development is proposed. Examples might include greenfield land in rural areas where infrastructure costs are consistent and not excessive, or small residential developments or small commercial and industrial estates where it is likely that the density, form and unit cost of the development will be similar. Less frequently, it may be possible to compare larger sites for housing or other developments on this basis.
In comparing sites, the condition of each site, any remediation costs, construction costs, infrastructure and service requirements will need careful consideration. Site prices can differ considerably within a small geographical area.
For assets where work on the development has commenced but not completed, the market approach is unlikely to be the most appropriate choice because comparable transactions of partly completed developments are unlikely to be found. The residual method is more likely to take account of the individuality that will exist.
Where development has begun, the assumption of optimum development is expected to apply. Where the actual development taking place is not the optimum development, the cost of removing the existing works must be included unless improving them forms part of the optimum development.
When valuing a partly completed development property, all the inputs, including the cost of completing the development, must be assessed as at the valuation date. The valuation should reflect the risks remaining at the valuation date, which may be different from the commencement of the scheme and a re‐assessment of the rate of return is required. This may be affected by the stage the project has reached, whether building contracts remain in place or whether any agreements to purchase/let the whole or part of the completed development are in place. A project that is nearing completion will normally be viewed as being less risky than one at an early stage.
As explained in Chapter 8, the residual method is based on the simple concept that the value of a property with development potential is the value of the completed development minus the cost of undertaking that development. Because it is derived from what remains after costs have been deducted from the value of the completed development, it is widely referred to as residual land value. The method can be used to determine other residual sums such as developer's profit, but the focus here is on land value as the residual amount.
The simple residual valuation concept is complicated by the fact that development takes time while the valuation is snapshot. Two techniques have evolved to handle this, a basic residual valuation technique and a more detailed discounted cash‐flow (DCF) technique. Choice of technique will depend on the purpose of the valuation, the stage in the development process that the valuation is performed and the type of development property that is being valued. A basic residual valuation might be used for less‐complex assets or early in the development process to consider various proposals in the search for the optimum development. A DCF valuation may be used for more complex assets with phased construction or disposal, where the timing of events needs to be fully accounted for in the valuation.
Revenues and costs that are typically considered in residual valuations are:
In Chapter 8, the residual method of valuation was described, covering two techniques, the basic residual and the DCF. These techniques are discussed further below.
This method was described in Chapter 8. Here, an example is provided as a reminder of how the technique proceeds.
A site has planning permission for an office building comprising 1875 square metres gross internal area (GIA; 80% efficiency ratio). The market rent for new offices in this location is £390 per square metre and new, recently let office buildings in this location have recently sold to investors for a price reflecting an initial yield of 7.50%. Construction costs are expected to be £1775 per square metre and site preparation work and external works are estimated at £30 000 and £100 000 respectively. Professional fees are estimated at 13% of build costs and external works, and there is a contingency allowance set at 5% of build costs, external works and professional fees. The developer has a target profit margin of 20% of development costs and has secured bank lending at 8% per annum. The construction is expected to take 15 months and a void period of 3 months is anticipated. Using the basic residual technique, the valuation might proceed as follows.
Development value | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Net internal area (NIA) (m2) | 1500 | |||
Estimated rental value (ERV) (£/m2) | 390 | |||
585 000 | ||||
Net initial yield | 7.50% | 13.3333 | ||
Gross development value (GDV) before sale costs (£) | 7 800 000 | |||
Net development value (NDV) after sale costs (£) | 7 647 059 | |||
Development costs | ||||
Site preparation (£) | (30 000) | |||
Building costs (£/m2 GIA) | 1775 | (3 328 125) | ||
External costs (£) | (100 000) | |||
Professional fees (% building costs and external works) | 13.00% | (445 656) | ||
Contingency allowance (% construction costs) | 5.00% | (193 689) | ||
Finance on costs and fees for half building period @ | 8.00% | (201 908) | ||
Finance on costs and finance for void period @ | 8.00% | (83 522) | ||
Letting agent's Fee (% ERV) | 10.00% | (58 500) | ||
Letting legal fee (% ERV) | 5.00% | (29 250) | ||
Developer's profit on total development costs (%): | 20.00% | (89 4130) | ||
Total development costs (TDC) (£) | (5 364 780) | |||
NDV − TDC (£) | 2 282 278 | |||
Land costs (£) | ||||
Developer's profit on land costs (%) | 20.00% | (380 380) | 1 901 899 | |
Finance on land costs over total development period | 8.00% | 1.50 | 0.8910 | |
Residual land value before purchase costs (£) | 1 694 540 | |||
Residual land value after purchase costs (£) | 1 591 117 |
The basic residual technique is a simple means of estimating the value of development property. However, its simplicity comes at a price and the technique is often criticised for several reasons.
First, the handling of finance. By calculating interest on half of the building costs over the construction period (or on all the building costs over half of the building period), it is assumed that these costs are incurred evenly. Often, the initial build‐up of costs tends to be gradual, peaks at 60% and then tails off, taking the form of an s‐curve. Typically, only 40% building costs are incurred halfway through the construction period whereas the residual method assumes 50%. Consequently, the estimated finance cost can be higher than that which is actually incurred. As a counter to this over‐estimate, the residual method assumes that interest accumulates annually rather than quarterly.
Second, development projects take time, sometimes many years, and a return that is expressed as a cash margin does not reflect the timing of cost outlays or the receipt of profit and therefore might not compensate developers appropriately for the risks taken. To reflect uncertainty caused by time, a void period might be incorporated, and this would increase the development costs. However, developer's profit is calculated as a percentage of those costs so there is no obvious penalty (or risk) associated with an extended void period for the developer. Instead, land value reduces, and the landowner is penalised. The internal rate of return (IRR) of the development project also falls owing to the delay in receiving revenue that is associated with the void, but this is not apparent to the developer using a cash margin metric.
This point raises a wider issue. When developer’s profit is expressed as a cash margin, it could represent very different IRRs depending on the length of the development period and the scale of construction costs relative to revenues. Research by Crosby et al. (2020) revealed that the two main drivers of variation between a simple profit on cost and the project IRR are the length of time a development takes and the ratio of costs to value, while finance rates have very little impact. If the same cash margin is spread over more years, then the associated IRR will naturally fall as the development period lengthens. Interestingly, the IRR and the cash margin are roughly the same, around 15–20%, for development periods of around two to three years. There is a counter‐effect in that the longer the period, the higher the interest charges in the residual model and the lower the residual land value. A reduced land value will then reduce the initial costs of the scheme, but this is more than offset by the normal discounting of future revenue flows, so as the development period gets longer, the IRRs reduce. This pattern contrasts with what literature from corporate finance suggests regarding the behaviour of required rates of return, that these should, all else equal, be higher with longer duration projects (see Cornell 1999).
Also, as the ratio of construction costs to development value increases (i.e. the initial outlay on land reduces), the IRR increases. This is because the land cost becomes a smaller share of the development cost, and, proportionately, more costs are incurred later in the development period, thus having a beneficial impact on the IRR.
Finally, the basic residual technique cannot deal with revenue that may be received and expenditure that may be due at various times during the development period. Revenue might be received in phases when part of the development is sold or let during the development period. For residential developments, sales of dwellings often occur in stages. This requires a cash‐flow format to reflect finance costs when debt can be paid down during the scheme.
As with investment property, valuations of development property may be undertaken using a DCF technique, as introduced in Chapter 8.
For example, your client owns the freehold interest in a development site that has planning permission for a three‐storey mixed‐use retail and office property. Each floor will measure 10 metres by 30 metres GIA. The ground floor will be developed as a retail unit having sales space of seven metres internal frontage by 20 metres depth, with 20 square metres of storage space at the rear. The two upper floors will be used for offices and have lettable floor space of 250 square metres on each floor. Site preparation is estimated to cost £100 000. Market rent for offices is £200 per square metre and overall market rent for retail is £400 per square metre for ground floor sales and £150 per square metre for storage space. Yields are currently 6% for this kind of development. Costs of construction are estimated to be around £900 per square metre of GIA, professional fees are 10% of building costs and contingencies are 5% of building costs and professional fees. Development finance is available at 8% per annum. A lead‐in period of six months is anticipated, the construction period is estimated to be nine months and a void period of six months is also anticipated. The developer's required profit margin is 17% of gross development value (GDV). Calculate the market value of the site using the DCF technique.
Assumptions:
Calculations:
Cash flow:
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net development value (£) | 2 598 039 | |||||||
Site preparation (£) | (100 000) | |||||||
Building costs (£) | (202 500) | (405 000) | (202 500) | |||||
Professional fees (£) | (20 250) | (40 500) | (20 250) | |||||
Contingencies (£) | (11 138) | (22 275) | (11 138) | |||||
Letting and legal fee (£) | (15 900) | |||||||
Developer's profit (£) | (450 500) | |||||||
Net cash flow (£) | 0 | (100 000) | (233 888) | (467 775) | (233 888) | 0 | 0 | 2 131 639 |
PV £1 @ 1.94% | 1.0000 | 0.9809 | 0.9623 | 0.9439 | 0.9259 | 0.9083 | 0.8911 | 0.8742 |
PV of cash flow (£) | 0 | (98 094) | (225 058) | (441 539) | (216 563) | 0 | 0 | 1 863 479 |
NPV (residual land value before PCs) (£) | 882 225 | |||||||
Residual land value after PCs @ 6.5% (£) | 828 380 |
Understanding the nature of development risk is crucial to the identification of the appropriate developer's profit for undertaking the development. Many of these risks will affect the revenue and costs of the development and small changes in these inputs can lead to large shifts in the output residual land value. For example, site A is a prime city‐centre location with high land cost relative to other costs and site B is out‐of‐town, in a greenfield location with low land cost relative to other costs. Residual valuations have produced the following estimates of development value, development cost and site value:
Site A – Development on a prime site:
Development value (£) | 10 000 000 |
Development cost, including finance (£) | (7 000 000) |
Residual land value (£) | 3 000 000 |
Site B – Development on a cheap site:
Development value (£) | 10 000 000 |
Development cost, including finance (£) | (9 000 000) |
Residual land value (£) | 1 000 000 |
Three scenarios may be constructed based on changes to development cost and value over the period of the development:
If this happens, site value at both locations will increase by the same percentage amount.
Site A | Development value (£) | 12 500 000 | |
Development cost, including finance (£) | 7 350 000 | ||
Residual land value (£) | 5 150 000 | +72% | |
Site B | Development value (£) | 12 500 000 | |
Development cost, including finance (£) | (9 450 000) | ||
Residual land value (£) | 3 050 000 | +205% |
Site A | Development value (£) | 10 050 000 | |
Development cost, including finance (£) | (8 750 000) | ||
Residual land value (£) | 1 300 000 | –57% | |
Site B | Development value (£) | 10 050 000 | |
Development cost, including finance (£) | (11 250 000) | ||
Residual land value (£) | (1 200 000) | –220% |
If the residual land value is small relative to other costs, changes in development value and development cost will magnify changes in the residual so much so that it can easily disappear. This volatility will inform the level of profit that developers aim for.
It is possible to incorporate the developer's profit sum as a percentage return on development value or on development costs. Then the cash flow is usually discounted at a finance rate that assumes both land and construction costs are wholly debt financed to calculate a residual land value. This approach, which is closest to the basic residual valuation, is criticised for incorporating a profit measure that does not reflect the timescale of the investment. For instance, all else equal, the profit level (if expressed as a ratio of development costs or value) would be the same for a 1‐ or 10‐year scheme, whereas the internal rates of return would be different. The application of an absolute (in cash terms) profit margin invariant with the time frame of a development implies an assumption that developers are indifferent to whether £1 is received next year or in 10 years. The approach has also been criticised for incorporating finance in a project appraisal, and at a debt level that is unrealistic. The approach does not conform to mainstream project appraisal in other asset classes where the investment decision is usually separate from the financing decision. There is little direct connection between the rate at which a developer can borrow and the appropriate discount rate to be applied to a particular development project. This is particularly so when the cash flows are subject to a high degree of project risk as in many property developments.
A DCF residual land valuation can be adapted so that profit is not input as a lump sum receivable at the end of the scheme. Instead, it can be handled by using a developer's target rate of return as the discount rate. This means that financing is handled separately. This approach is best illustrated using an example. A site has planning permission for a six‐storey mixed‐use retail and office building. The dimensions of each floor are 20 metres by 30 metres (gross). The five upper storeys will be used for offices with a net internal area of 500 square metres on each floor. The ground floor will be developed as two large retail units, each with 8 metres of frontage, 20 metres of depth sales space and 7 metres depth of storage space at the rear of each unit. The site has been cleared, serviced and is ready for development. It is estimated that the development will take 18 months. Annual rental values are estimated to be £220 per square metre for offices and £440 per square metre for ground floor sales on an overall basis (not zoned) for retail space. Storage space is currently letting at around and £150 per square metre. Investment sales for this type of mixed‐use scheme are yielding 7%. Building costs are estimated to be £1200 per square metre of GIA, professional fees are 10% of building cost and contingencies are 5% of building costs and professional fees. The building costs are assumed to be spread as follows over the one‐and‐a‐half‐year development period:
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Building costs (£) | 10% | 15% | 50% | 15% | 10% |
Development finance is available at 7% per annum. Assuming a developer's target rate of return of 12% per annum and using a quarterly cash flow, the residual land value is calculated as follows:
Inputs and Assumptions: | |
---|---|
GIA (m2) | 3600 |
Office NIA (m2) | 2500 |
Retail sales (m2) | 320 |
Retail storage (m2) | 112 |
Building costs (£/m2) | 1200 |
Office rent (£/m2) | 220 |
Retail rent (£/m2) | 440 |
Storage rent (£/m2) | 150 |
Finance (% p.a.) | 7.00% |
Target rate (%) | 12.00% |
Yield (%) | 7.00% |
Purchase costs (% NDV) | 6.50% |
Professional fees (% building costs) | 10% |
Contingency (% building costs and professional fees) | 5% |
Letting fee (% estimated MR) | 15% |
Disposal costs (% NDV) | 2% |
Calculations: | |
Construction cost (£) | 4 320 000 |
Office ERV (£ p.a.) | 550 000 |
Retail ERV (£ p.a.) | 140 800 |
Storage ERV (£ p.a.) | 16 800 |
Total ERV (£ p.a.) | 707 600 |
YP perp % yield | 14.2857 |
GDV (£) | 10 108 571 |
NDV (£) | 9 910 364 |
Quarterly finance rate | 1.71% |
Quarterly target rate | 2.87% |
Quarter: | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | Totals |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Building costs (£) | 0 | (432 000) | (648 000) | (2 160 000) | (648 000) | (432 000) | 0 | (4 320 000) |
Professional fees (£) | 0 | (43 200) | (64 800) | (216 000) | (64 800) | (43 200) | 0 | (432 000) |
Contingencies (£) | 0 | (23 760) | (35 640) | (118 800) | (35 640) | (23 760) | 0 | (237 600) |
Letting fee (£) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (106 140) | (106 140) |
NDV (£) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 910 364 | 9 910 364 |
Net cash flow before finance (£) | 0 | (498 960) | (748 440) | (2 494 800) | (748 440) | (498 960) | 9 804 224 | |
Finance: | ||||||||
Opening balance (£) | 0 | 0 | (498 960) | (1 255 912) | (3 772 136) | (4 584 923) | (5 162 095) | |
Interest on loan (£) | 0 | 0 | (8512) | (21 424) | (64 347) | (78 212) | (88 058) | (260 552) |
Closing balance (£) | 0 | (498 960) | (1 255 912) | (3 772 136) | (4 584 923) | (5 162 095) | (5 356 292) | |
Residual land value (£) | 4 554 072 | |||||||
PV of residual land value before PCs (£) | 3 734 808 | |||||||
Residual land value after PCs (£) | 3 506 862 |
As well as adjusting the developer's profit requirement, risks associated with a development can be factored into the valuation by either adjusting valuation inputs perhaps using sensitivity analysis or scenario modelling. These risk‐analysis techniques may be used to identify variation in valuations of development property and the source of that variation (see Chapter 14). The presence of future possible outcomes or options inherent in the development process suggest some additional analysis of the valuation would help contextualise the spot estimate. With larger sites that take longer to develop, options within the development process become more likely, including phasing the development, thereby using the experience from the first stage to manage the development of later phases, opting to wait until the optimum timing of development can be identified or even the option to abandon the current scheme. These options have been the subject of several studies using option pricing techniques from financial markets to quantify them (Geltner et al. 2018). Chapter 14 shows how risk‐analysis techniques can address some of these issues and can help indicate likely variation around the valuation.
The investment value basis of valuation may be appropriate where assumptions made within a financial appraisal or valuation relate to a specific entity and/or client. Here, investment value is taken to refer to the estimation of value to the developer, in other words, the developer's profit or return. Both the basic residual and the DCF technique can be used to estimate the investment value of development property, and these are considered below. After that, the creation of more complex financial appraisals is discussed.
For example, a property development company is considering the acquisition of a development site, which is on the market at an asking price of £3.5m. The site has outline planning consent for an office building with a GIA of 5000 square metres. A local commercial letting agent has indicated that demand for office space in the town is steady and rents have recently been agreed at £220 per square metre per annum. Recent office investment transactions show capitalization rates around 6%. Building costs are estimated to be £1100 per square metre. Site clearance and external works are expected to cost £400 000. After a lead‐in period of 6 months, construction is expected to take 15 months. Current interest rates on development loans of this nature are around 8% per annum. Making assumptions where necessary, calculate developer's profit and report it as a cash sum, a return on costs and a return on value.
Development value | |||
---|---|---|---|
Net internal area (NIA) (m2) | 4250 | ||
Estimated rental value (ERV) (£/m2) | 220 | ||
935 000 | |||
YP in perp @ | 6.00% | 16.67 | |
Gross development value before sale costs (£) | 15 583 333 | ||
Net development value (NDV) after sale costs (£) | 2.00% | 15 277 777 | |
Development costs | |||
Land price (£) | (3 500 000) | ||
Land purchase costs (% land price) | 6.50% | (227 500) | |
Building costs (£/m2 GIA) | (5 500 000) | ||
External works (£) | (400 000) | ||
Professional fees (% construction costs and external works) | 10.00% | (590 000) | |
Contingency allowance (% construction costs) | 3.00% | (194 700) | |
Finance on site price and purchase costs for development period | 8.00% | (704 718) | |
Finance on construction costs and fees for half building period | 8.00% | (329 397) | |
Finance on construction costs, fees and interest for void period | 8.00% | (275 166) | |
Letting agent's fee (% ERV) | 15.00% | (140 250) | |
Total development costs (TDC) (£) | (11 861 731) | ||
Developer's profit on completion (NDV – TDC) (£) | 3 416 046 | ||
Return on costs | 28.80% | ||
Return on value | 22.65% |
In a DCF, the land price can be inserted in the cash flow and the discount rate represents the developer’s profit expressed as a period rate of return. The cash flow can be used to calculate the NPV given a target rate or it can be used to calculate the IRR of the project. It is important to note that the target rate and the IRR are before finance. If the valuer wants to estimate profit as a lump sum at the end of the development, the land value is again inserted at the beginning of the cash flow. Then, interest on this land cost and all other development costs is compounded to the end of the cash‐flow (assuming 100% borrowing). The residual amount at the end of the cash flow is the developer’s profit.
Take the following example:
Inputs and Assumptions: | |
---|---|
Land price (£) | (1 000 000) |
Yield | 6.75% |
Gross internal area (GIA) (m2) | 2500 |
Build cost (£/m2) | (1250) |
Estimated rental value (ERV) (£/m2) | 210 |
Build period (years) | 1.25 |
Efficiency ratio | 85% |
Finance rate (% p.a.) | 7.50% |
Target rate (% p.a.) | 15.00% |
Land purchase costs (% land purchase price) | 5.75% |
Development sale costs (% NDV) | 2.00% |
Letting fee (% ERV) | 15% |
Lead‐in period (years) | 0.25 |
Void period (years) | 0.50 |
Contingencies (% build costs and professional fees) | 5.00% |
Professional fees (% build costs) | 10.00% |
Calculations: | |
Net internal area (NIA) (m2) | 2125 |
Build costs (£) | (3 125 000) |
Estimated MR (£ p.a.) | 446 250 |
Gross development value (GDV) (£) | 6 611 111 |
Net development value (NDV) (£) | 6 481 481 |
Finance rate (% p.q.) | 1.82% |
Target rate (% p.q.) | 3.56% |
CASH FLOW | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
NDV (£) | 6 481 481 | |||||||||
Land price (£) | (1 000 000) | |||||||||
Land purchase costs (£) | (57 500) | |||||||||
Building costs (£) | (625 000) | (625 000) | (625 000) | (625 000) | (625 000) | |||||
Professional fees (£) | (62 500) | (62 500) | (62 500) | (62 500) | (62 500) | |||||
Contingencies (£) | (34 375) | (34 375) | (34 375) | (34 375) | (34 375) | |||||
Letting fee (£) | (66 938) | |||||||||
Net cash flow (£) | (1 057 500) | 0 | (721 875) | (721 875) | (721 875) | (721 875) | (721 875) | 0 | 0 | 6 414 544 |
PV £1 @ target rate | 1.0000 | 0.9657 | 0.9325 | 0.9005 | 0.8696 | 0.8397 | 0.8109 | 0.7830 | 0.7561 | 0.7302 |
PV (£) | (1 057 500) | 0 | (673 152) | (650 038) | (627 717) | (606 163) | (585 349) | 0 | 0 | 4 683 771 |
NPV (£) (before finance) | 483 851 | |||||||||
Finance | ||||||||||
Opening balance (£) | 0 | (1 057 500) | (1 076 794) | (1 818 314) | (2 573 364) | (3 342 189) | (4 125 041) | (4 922 175) | (5 011 978) | (5 103 420) |
Interest (arrears) (£) | 0 | (19 294) | (19 646) | (33 174) | (46 950) | (60 977) | (75 260) | (89 803) | (91 442) | (93 110) |
Closing balance (£) | (1 057 500) | (1 076 794) | (1 818 314) | (2 573 364) | (3 342 189) | (4 125 041) | (4 922 175) | (5 011 978) | (5 103 420) | 1 218 014 |
After finance profit (£) | 1 218 014 | |||||||||
As a % cost | (4 733 813) | 25.73% |
Developer's target profit metrics, be they cash margins such as profit‐on‐cost or profit‐on‐value, or a rate of return, can vary significantly between projects. Many risks relate to the volatility of profit relative to uncertainty regarding the major inflows and outflows over the development period. A target rate of return has an advantage over the profit on cost or value approaches because it accounts for project duration, and it can be compared with rates of return from other types of projects. The rate is subject to scheme‐specific risk, market risk and often high levels of operational gearing. Rates of return that may be observable from other developments will need careful consideration if they are to be used as comparable evidence. If comparable evidence is lacking, another approach is to build a target rate from a risk‐free rate using components of market and asset‐specific risk premia. Consideration should be given to scheme specific as well as market risks, and this should be set out by reference where possible to market data and scheme‐specific inputs.
What is an acceptable risk‐adjusted target rate of return for development activity? It depends on the type of developer, type and location of the development and the state of the market. According to the RTPI (2018), developers usually base required returns on experience rather than on sophisticated modelling. Geltner et al. (2007, chapter 29) stress that, although difficult, estimating a required rate of return is an unavoidable element of all project evaluations and inherent to the process. They suggest several possible approaches, contingent upon the stage in the development process, which draw upon real option pricing, the use of a ‘reinterpreted’ weighted average cost of capital (WACC) or historic return data from ‘pure play’ real‐estate development companies. Brown and Matysiak (2000) discuss risk grouping, risk ratios, capital asset pricing model, arbitrage pricing theory and WACC. Estimating a required rate of return for development opportunities requires data that typically do not exist or assumptions that are difficult to verify but, while problematic, it is important to acknowledge that required rates of return are implicit in all conventional development appraisal techniques when applying simple profit‐on‐value and profit‐on‐cost ratios.
As it is a risk‐adjusted return, it is important to ensure that risk is not double counted by allowing for it in, say, a contingency fund in the appraisal and in the risk‐adjusted discount rate. All else equal, a higher contingency allowance should be compensated by a relatively lower target rate of return. Also, the treatment of finance within the residual appraisal is linked to the formulation or target rates of return and appropriate metric or proxy. Development risk is compounded when a combination of debt and equity funds are used to finance real‐estate development.
It is possible to use the DCF technique to conduct appraisals which take account of the level of borrowing and different costs of borrowing on different forms of debt. When developing these models, the role and purpose of the valuation must be fully recognised. Market valuations require market‐based inputs and assumptions as to highest and best use. Specific funding arrangements and rates of return required by individual developers are not necessarily based on market indicators.
As the purpose of the development appraisal shifts from the estimation of market value to investment value, the 100% debt financing assumption in the basic residual and DCF techniques can be altered. Instead, it is useful to consider a combination of debt and equity funding. Appraisals of real‐estate development projects (as opposed to standing investments) often involve multiple sources of finance. Therefore, a post‐finance cash flow is an important component of the appraisal and is used to estimate a return on equity. Perusal of various development appraisals will reveal that there is no standard form that these post‐finance cash flows take but, in general, they follow a pattern. The following example is an attempt to illustrate the rudiments of a typical financial appraisal of a development project.
A simple one‐year quarterly cash flow is shown below.
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Costs | (10 000) | (10 000) | (10 000) | (10 000) | |
Revenue | 45 000 | ||||
Net cash flow | (10 000) | (10 000) | (10 000) | (10 000) | 45 000 |
The IRR of the net cash flow is 4.77% per quarter (20.48% per annum). If it is assumed that, rather than using 100% debt finance to fund all the costs, 75% is financed by ‘senior’ debt at a cost of 2.41% per quarter (10% per annum equivalent), accrued in arrears. The remaining 25% of costs are funded by the developer's own funds (equity). The debt and the equity funding are provided on a side‐by‐side basis and because the revenue from the project is received at the end, no debt is repaid until this point and interest on the debt is rolled up until the end of the scheme. The senior debt finance is shown below.
Opening balance | 0 | (7500) | (15 181) | (23 047) | (31 102) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Interest | 0 | (181) | (366) | (555) | (750) |
New costs | (7500) | (7500) | (7500) | (7500) | 0 |
Closing balance | (7500) | (15 181) | (23 047) | (31 102) | (31 852) |
The equity costs and receipts are shown below. The total equity costs are 10 000 and the total revenue (after the finance costs have been paid) is 45 000 – 31 852 = 13 148. This means the cash profit to the developer is 13 148 – 10 000 = 3148.
Equity costs | (2500) | (2500) | (2500) | (2500) | 0 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Equity revenue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 148 |
Equity cash flow | (2500) | (2500) | (2500) | (2500) | 13 148 |
Three common performance metrics for equity return are:
Gearing the funding in this way has increased the developer's IRR from 20% to 53%.
Further ‘mezzanine’ debt finance is now introduced so that 15% of the costs are funded on a side‐by‐side basis at an annual cost of 18% per annum (4.22% per quarter). The mezzanine debt finance is shown below.
Opening balance | 0 | (1500) | (3063) | (4693) | (6391) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Interest | 0 | (63) | (129) | (198) | (270) |
New costs | (1500) | (1500) | (1500) | (1500) | 0 |
Closing balance | (1500) | (3063) | (4693) | (6391) | (6660) |
And the equity cash flow is as follows.
Equity costs | (1000) | (1000) | (1000) | (1000) | 0 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Equity revenue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6488 |
Equity cash flow | (1000) | (1000) | (1000) | (1000) | 6488 |
Total equity costs are now 4000 and revenue is 45 000–31 852–6660 = 6488. Cash profit is therefore 2488.
Additional gearing from the mezzanine finance increases the equity IRR further.
Some lenders might be keen to participate in some of this equity return, in the form of a profit‐sharing arrangement perhaps. Continuing the example above, assume the developer sets a threshold equity return of say 25%, and the mezzanine lender takes a 50% share of any profit earned over this rate. By participating in the equity in this way, the mezzanine lender offers to reduce the interest rate on their debt to say 14%. The senior debt is as before, but with mezzanine finance at 14% per annum (3.33% per quarter), the mezzanine debt table is shown below.
Opening balance | 0 | (1500) | (3050) | (4652) | (6306) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Interest | 0 | (50) | (102) | (155) | (210) |
New costs | (1500) | (1500) | (1500) | (1500) | 0 |
Closing balance | (1500) | (3050) | (4652) | (6306) | (6516) |
The developer's threshold return at 25% per annum (5.74% per quarter) is calculated as follows.
Opening balance | 0 | (1000) | (2057) | (3175) | (4358) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Interest | 0 | (57) | (118) | (182) | (250) |
New costs | (1000) | (1000) | (1000) | (1000) | 0 |
Closing balance | (1000) | (2057) | (3175) | (4358) | (4608) |
The profit after all these costs is: 45 000 – 31 852 – 6516 – 4608 = 2024. 50% of this (1012) is paid to the mezzanine funder and 1012 is paid to the developer, whose equity cash flow is shown below.
Equity input | (1000) | (1000) | (1000) | (1000) | 0 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Receipts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5620 |
Equity cash flow | (1000) | (1000) | (1000) | (1000) | 5620 |
Total equity input is 4000. Total revenue is the closing balance from the threshold return calculation plus the profit share: 4608 + 1012 = 5620. Cash profit is 5620 – 4000 = 1620 and the performance metrics are:
Sharing profit reduces the IRR significantly.
The next example shows how revenue might be received in phases rather than all at the end of the scheme and pays back the debt in a specified order of priority. A developer has recently acquired a residential development site for £10m. To finance the project, two options are being considered:
The table below begins with the pre‐finance cash flow. The IRR is 22% and when the net cash flow is in credit, there are funds available for distribution to lenders as and when necessary. The second stage of the appraisal calculates the return to equity following the debt finance arrangement described in (a) above. 65% of the costs are debt funded and interest is calculated on the balance carried forward from the previous quarter. The remaining 35% is funded by equity. Distribution funds are used to pay down the debt from the fourth quarter until the sixth quarter. In the sixth quarter, the debt is paid off and there is a net cash flow to equity which continues until the eighth and final quarter. The IRR on equity is 39%; the gearing has had a positive impact compared to the project IRR.
The third stage incorporates the mezzanine finance that is used to meet 15% of the costs in each quarter. The calculations work in the same way as the senior debt but because the senior debt is serviced first, there are no funds available to pay down the mezzanine debt until the sixth quarter. The debt is paid off in full by the seventh quarter and the IRR on equity is 60%. The fourth stage introduces the profit share arrangement. A surplus occurs in the last two quarters and must be distributed evenly between the equity provider and mezzanine finance provider. This is done by taking the flow to equity in [C], discounting it at the equity provider's target rate of return (5% per quarter). This takes care of the ‘normal’ return to the equity provider. Deducting the discounted equity cash flow from the net equity cash flow leaves the surplus, half of which goes to the equity provider and is therefore added to the DCF. Having done this in quarters seven and eight, the resulting IRR on equity is 46%.
Quarter | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | IRR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A. Project cash flow: pre‐finance | ||||||||||
Total revenue | 5 000 000 | 5 000 000 | 5 000 000 | 5 000 000 | 5 000 000 | |||||
Cash outflows (dev. costs) | (10 000 000) | (1 000 000) | (2 000 000) | (2 000 000) | (1 000 000) | (1 000 000) | (2 000 000) | (2 000 000) | ||
Net cash flow (pre‐finance) | (10 000 000) | (1 000 000) | (2 000 000) | 3 000 000 | 4 000 000 | 4 000 000 | 3 000 000 | 3 000 000 | 22.38% | |
Available for distribution | 3 000 000 | 4 000 000 | 4 000 000 | 3 000 000 | 3 000 000 | |||||
B. Project cash flow: post senior debt contribution proportion @ 65% LTC, interest @ 2% per qtr | ||||||||||
Opening balance | (6 500 000) | (6 630 000) | (7 412 600) | (8 860 852) | (6 038 069) | (2 158 830) | ||||
Quarterly interest (in arrears) | (130 000) | (132 600) | (148 252) | (177 217) | (120 761) | (43 177) | ||||
Contribution to current quarter's costs | (6 500 000) | (650 000) | (1 300 000) | |||||||
Repayment | 3 000 000 | 4 000 000 | 2 202 007 | |||||||
Closing balance | (6 500 000) | (6 630 000) | (7 412 600) | (8 860 852) | (6 038 069) | (2 158 830) | ||||
Net cash flow to equity | (3 500 000) | (350 000) | (700 000) | 1 797 993 | 3 000 000 | 3 000 000 | 38.85% | |||
C. Project cash flow: as above plus mezz debt contribution @ 15% LTC, interest @ 4% per qtr | ||||||||||
Opening balance | (1 500 000) | (1 560 000) | (1 622 400) | (1 687 296) | (1 754 788) | (1 824 979) | (99 986) | |||
Quarterly interest (in arrears) | (60 000) | (62 400) | (64 896) | (67 492) | (70 192) | (72 999) | (3999) | |||
Contribution to current quarter's costs | (1 500 000) | |||||||||
Repayment | 1 797 993 | 103 985 | ||||||||
Closing balance | (1 500 000) | (1 560 000) | (1 622 400) | (1 687 296) | (1 754 788) | (1 824 979) | (99 986) | |||
Net cash flow to equity | (2 000 000) | (200 000) | (400 000) | 2 896 015 | 3 000 000 | 60.18% | ||||
D. Project cash flow: as above plus mezz debt provider receives 50% profit share above developer's 5% TRR | ||||||||||
Net cash flow to equity (from above) | (2 000 000) | (200 000) | (400 000) | 2 896 015 | 3 000 000 | |||||
Discounted at 5% p.q. (developer's TRR) | 1.0000 | 0.9524 | 0.9070 | 0.8638 | 0.8227 | 0.7835 | 0.7462 | 0.7107 | 0.6768 | |
Discounted cash flow | (2 000 000) | (181 406) | (345 535) | 2 058 144 | 2 030 518 | |||||
Less 50% surplus to mezzanine debt provider | (418 936) | (484 741) | ||||||||
Net cash flow to equity | (2 000 000) | (200 000) | (400 000) | 2 477 079 | 2 515 259 | 45.68% |
Profit‐sharing arrangements, like the ones illustrated in the examples above, are used to provide a developer or operating partner (referred to as the sponsor) in a joint venture (JV) with an extra share of profit, known as a promote. Hence, they are often referred to as promote structures. They can be structured in a variety of ways. One relatively common approach is a waterfall model (imagine cascading pools of water that fill up with cash flow and then spill over to the next pool once full). In a waterfall model, the sponsor receives an increased share of profit if the project IRR is greater than expected and a reduced share if it is less than expected. Common waterfall model components include:
Below is an example of a promote structure. A promoter (developer or sponsor) invests 10% of required equity and receives 10% of shares in the Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) formed to undertake a development project. An investor invests 90% of the equity required and receives 90% of shares in the SPV. Shareholders receive a pref of 10% per annum (2.41% per quarter) IRR generated by the levered project. The promoter receives a promote payment of 25% of any cash surplus above the 10% pref. All remaining funds will be distributed to shareholders in accordance with shareholdings.
The table below shows the cash flow for this project. The IRR of the project (SPV) cash flow is 4.07% per quarter (17.28% per annum). The IRR of the promoter's net cash flow is 7.26% per quarter (32.36% per annum) and the IRR of the investor's net cash flow is 3.67% per quarter (15.50% per annum).
Quarter | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Contributions | |||||||||||
Project (SPV) cash flow | (8 000 000) | (1 000 000) | (3 000 000) | (4 000 000) | (2 000 000) | 1 000 000 | 10 000 000 | 10 000 000 | 1 000 000 | ||
Promoter equity contribution | 10% | (800 000) | (100 000) | (300 000) | (400 000) | (200 000) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Investor equity contribution | 90% | (7 200 000) | (900 000) | (2 700 000) | (3 600 000) | (1 800 000) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Total equity contribution | (8 000 000) | (1 000 000) | (3 000 000) | (4 000 000) | (2 000 000) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
Cash flow available for distribution | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 000 000 | 10 000 000 | 10 000 000 | 1 000 000 | ||
Distributions | |||||||||||
Tier 1 | Balance (bop) | 0 | (8 000 000) | (9 192 800) | (12 414 346) | (16 713 532) | (19 116 328) | (18 577 032) | (9 024 738) | 0 | |
Equity contribution | (8 000 000) | (1 000 000) | (3 000 000) | (4 000 000) | (2 000 000) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
Accrual at hurdle rate | 2.41% | 0 | (192 800) | (221 546) | (299 186) | (402 796) | (460 704) | (447 706) | (217 496) | 0 | |
Accrual distribution | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 000 000 | 10 000 000 | 9 242 235 | 0 | ||
Balance (eop) | (8 000 000) | (9 192 800) | (12 414 346) | (16 713 532) | (19 116 328) | (18 577 032) | (9 024 738) | 0 | 0 | ||
Promoter tier 1 equity distribution | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 000 | 1 000 000 | 924 223 | 0 | |
Investor tier 1 equity distribution | 90% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 900 000 | 9 000 000 | 8 318 011 | 0 | |
Remaining cash flow for tier 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 757 765 | 1 000 000 | ||
Tier 2 | Promoter tier 2 bonus | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 189 441 | 250 000 |
Remaining cash flow for tier 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 568 324 | 750 000 | ||
Tier 3 | Promoter share of tier 3 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 56 832 | 75 000 |
Investor share of tier 3 | 90% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 511 492 | 675 000 | |
Returns | |||||||||||
Promoter net cash flow | (800 000) | (100 000) | (300 000) | (400 000) | (200 000) | 100 000 | 1 000 000 | 1 170 497 | 325 000 | ||
Investor net cash flow | (7 200 000) | (900 000) | (2 700 000) | (3 600 000) | (1 800 000) | 900 000 | 9 000 000 | 8 829 503 | 675 000 |
The next example illustrates a slightly more complex three‐tier waterfall promote structure. The sponsor invests 10% of the project costs and the investor invests 90% of the project costs. Profits are split pari passu up to 10% IRR and then profits are split disproportionately, i.e. both sponsor and investor receive 10% per annum as their pref on invested capital (pari passu). If distributions fall below 10% in any year, the deficiency is carried over to following years and compounded annually at the pref (the pref is cumulative and compounded). After the 10% pref hurdle is achieved, all profit up to 15% IRR is allocated at 20% to sponsor and 80% to investor. So, the sponsor gets an additional 10% profit above the original 10% pro rata share. This additional 10% is the promote. Above 15% IRR, the split is 60% to the investor and 40% to the sponsor. So, the sponsor gets a 30% promote after the final 15% IRR is achieved. The structure can be summarised as follows.
IRRs a | Profit split | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
From | Up to | Sponsor | Investor | |||||||||
Tier 1 | Hurdle 1 | 0% | 10% | 10% | 90% | |||||||
Tier 2 | ||||||||||||
Hurdle 2 | 10% | 15% | 20% | 80% | ||||||||
Tier 3 | ||||||||||||
Hurdle 3 | 15% | 40% | 60% |
a IRR hurdle calculations are at the project level.
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Project | Project cash flow | (1 000 000) | (50 000) | (100 000) | (100 000) | 500 000 | 3 000 000 |
Promoter equity Contribution | (100 000) | (5000) | (10 000) | (10 000) | 0 | 0 | |
Investor equity contribution | (900 000) | (45 000) | (90 000) | (90 000) | 0 | 0 | |
Total equity contribution | (1 000 000) | (50 000) | (100 000) | (100 000) | 0 | 0 | |
Cash available for distribution | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 500 000 | 3 000 000 | |
Tier 1 | Balance (bop) | 0 | (1 000 000) | (1 150 000) | (1 365 000) | (1 601 500) | (1 261 650) |
Total equity contribution | (1 000 000) | (50 000) | (100 000) | (100 000) | 0 | 0 | |
Tier 1 accrual | 0 | (100 000) | (115 000) | (136 500) | (160 150) | (126 165) | |
Tier 1 accrual distribution | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 500 000 | 1 387 815 | |
Balance (eop) | (1 000 000) | (1 150 000) | (1 365 000) | (1 601 500) | (1 261 650) | 0 | |
Investor equity distribution | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 450 000 | 1 249 034 | |
Promoter equity distribution | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 000 | 138 782 | |
Promoter promote cash flow | |||||||
Remaining cash to distribute to tier 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 612 185 | |
Tier 2 | Balance (bop) | 0 | (1 000 000) | (1 200 000) | (1 480 000) | (1 802 000) | (1 572 300) |
Equity contributions | (1 000 000) | (50 000) | (100 000) | (100 000) | 0 | 0 | |
Tier 2 accrual | 0 | (150 000) | (180 000) | (222 000) | (270 300) | (235 845) | |
Tier 2 accrual distribution | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 500 000 | 1 808 145 | |
Balance (eop) | (1 000 000) | (1 200 000) | (1 480 000) | (1 802 000) | (1 572 300) | 0 | |
Investor equity cash flow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 336 264 | |
Promoter equity cash flow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 42 033 | |
Promoter promote cash flow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 42 033 | |
Remaining cash to distribute to tier 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 191 855 | |
Tier 3 | Investor cash flow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 715 113 |
Promoter equity cash flow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 119 186 | |
Promoter promote cash flow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 357 557 | |
Returns | Investor equity contributions | (900 000) | (45 000) | (90 000) | (90 000) | 0 | 0 |
Investor distributions | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 450 000 | 2 300 411 | |
Investor net cash flows | (900 000) | (45 000) | (90 000) | (90 000) | 450 000 | 2 300 411 | |
Investor IRR | 22.19% | ||||||
Investor equity multiple | 2.44 | ||||||
Promoter equity contributions | (100 000) | (5000) | (10 000) | (10 000) | 0 | 0 | |
Promoter distributions | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 000 | 699 590 | |
Promoter net cash flows | (100 000) | (5000) | (10 000) | (10 000) | 50 000 | 699 590 | |
Promoter IRR | 47.41% | ||||||
Promoter equity multiple | 6.00 |
Inputs and assumptions | |
Land price (£) | 8 000 000 |
Yield | 6.50% |
GIA (m2) | 8000 |
NIA (m2) | 6400 |
Build cost (£/m2) | 1500 |
Rent (£/m2) | 300 |
Land purchase costs (% land price) | 6.50% |
Sale fee | 2.00% |
Letting fee (% ERV) | 10% |
Lead‐in and void periods | 6 months each |
Contingency (% building cost and professional fees) | 5% |
Professional fees (% building cost) | 10% |
Calculations | |
Build costs | 12 000 000 |
Estimated MR (£ p.a.) | 1 920 000 |
GDV (£) | 29 538 462 |
NDV (£) | 28 959 276 |
Quarterly target rate of return | 3.56% |
Using a spreadsheet, it is possible to estimate the land value by iteration (the Goal Seek function in Excel). The NPV is set to zero by adjusting the land price input, which, here, is £8 653 760.
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
Land price (£) | (8 653 760) | |||||||||
Land purchase costs (£) | (497 591) | |||||||||
Building costs (£) | (600 000) | (1 800 000) | (3 600 000) | (3 600 000) | (1 800 000) | (600 000) | ||||
Professional fees (£) | (60 000) | (180 000) | (360 000) | (360 000) | (180 000) | (60 000) | ||||
Contingencies (£) | (33 000) | (99 000) | (198 000) | (198 000) | (99 000) | (33 000) | ||||
Letting fee (£) | (192 000) | |||||||||
NDV (£) | 28 959 276 | |||||||||
NET CASH FLOW (£) | (9 151 351) | 0 | (693 000) | (2 079 000) | (4 158 000) | (4 158 000) | (2 079 000) | (693 000) | 0 | 28 767 276 |
NPV @ 15% p.a. (3.56% p.q.) | 0 |
Inputs | |
Contingencies (% site prep, construction and fees) | 5% |
Professional fees (% construction costs) | 11% |
Building costs (£/m2) | 1000 |
Site preparation costs (£) | 250 000 |
GIA (m2) | 2000 |
Efficiency ratio | 90% |
Yield | 6.50% |
Estimated MR (£/m2) | 220 |
Disposal fees (% NDV) | 2.00% |
Land purchase costs (% land price) | 6.50% |
Land price (£) | 1 500 000 |
Development period (years) | 1.5 |
Letting fee (% MR) | 10% |
Target rate of return | 5.00% |
Calculations | |
NIA (m2) | 1800 |
Estimated MR (£ p.a.) | 396 000 |
GDV (£) | 6 092 308 |
NDV (£) | 5 972 851 |
Building cost (£) | 2 000 000 |
a. i. Even spread of construction costs over Q2–Q6 and site prep costs in Q1
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
Land price (£) | (1 500 000) | ||||||
Land purchase costs (£) | (97 500) | ||||||
Site preparation costs (£) | (250 000) | ||||||
Building cost (£) | (400 000) | (400 000) | (400 000) | (400 000) | (400 000) | ||
Professional fees (£) | (44 000) | (44 000) | (44 000) | (44 000) | (44 000) | ||
Contingency (£) | (12 500) | (22 200) | (22 200) | (22 200) | (22 200) | (22 200) | |
Letting fee (£) | (39 600) | ||||||
NDV (£) | 5 972 851 | ||||||
Net cash flow (£) | (1 597 500) | (262 500) | (466 200) | (466 200) | (466 200) | (466 200) | 5 467 051 |
b. NPV (£) | 657 695 | ||||||
c. IRR | 42.56% |
a. ii. S‐curve spread of construction costs over Q2–Q6 and site prep costs in Q1
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
Land price (£) | (1 500 000) | ||||||
Land purchase costs (£) | (97 500) | ||||||
Site preparation costs (£) | (250 000) | ||||||
Building cost (£) | (200 000) | (400 000) | (800 000) | (400 000) | (200 000) | ||
Professional fees (£) | (22 000) | (44 000) | (88 000) | (44 000) | (22 000) | ||
Contingency (£) | (12 500) | (11 100) | (22 200) | (44 400) | (22 200) | (11 100) | |
Letting fee (£) | (39 600) | ||||||
NDV (£) | 5 972 851 | ||||||
Net cash flow (£) | (1 597 500) | (262 500) | (233 100) | (466 200) | (932 400) | (466 200) | 5 700 151 |
b. NPV (£) | 659 523 | ||||||
c. IRR | 42.77% |
a. iii. 5% per annum growth in costs and values equates to 1.23% p.q.
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
Quarterly growth rate | 1.0000 | 1.0123 | 1.0247 | 1.0373 | 1.0500 | 1.0629 | 1.0759 |
Land price (£) | (1 500 000) | ||||||
Land purchase costs (£) | (97 500) | ||||||
Site preparation costs (£) | (253 068) | ||||||
Building cost (£) | (204 939) | (414 908) | (840 000) | (425 154) | (215 186) | ||
Professional fees (£) | (22 543) | (45 640) | (92 400) | (46 767) | (23 670) | ||
Contingency (£) | (12 653) | (11 374) | (23 027) | (46 620) | (23 596) | (11 943) | |
Letting fee (£) | (42 607) | ||||||
NDV (£) | 6 426 368 | ||||||
Net cash flow (£) | (1 597 500) | (265 721) | (238 856) | (483 575) | (979 020) | (495 517) | 6 132 96 |
b. NPV (£) | 897 869 | ||||||
c. IRR | 49.91% |
a. iv. 9 months void after completion
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
Quarterly growth rate | 1.0000 | 1.0123 | 1.0247 | 1.0373 | 1.0500 | 1.0629 | 1.0759 | 1.0891 | 1.1025 | 1.1160 |
Land price (£) | (1 500 000) | |||||||||
Land purchase costs (£) | (97 500) | |||||||||
Site preparation costs (£) | (253 068) | |||||||||
Building cost (£) | (204 939) | (414 908) | (840 000) | (425 154) | (215 186) | |||||
Professional fees (£) | (22 543) | (45 640) | (92 400) | (46 767) | (23 670) | |||||
Contingency (£) | (12 653) | (11 374) | (23 027) | (46 620) | (23 596) | (11 943) | ||||
Letting fee (£) | (44 195) | |||||||||
NDV (£) | 6 665 881 | |||||||||
Net cash flow (£) | (1 597 500) | (265 721) | (238 856) | (483 575) | (979 020) | (495 517) | (250 799) | 0 | 0 | 6 621 687 |
b. NPV (£) | 402 606 | |||||||||
c. IRR | 28.73% | |||||||||
d. Finance accounting at 4.00% p.q. | ||||||||||
Opening balance (£) | 0 | (1 597 500) | (1 927 121) | (2 243 063) | (2 816 361) | (3 908 035) | (4 559 874) | (4 993 068) | (5 192 791) | (5 400 502) |
Interest (£) | 0 | (63 900) | (77 085) | (89 723) | (112 654) | (156 321) | (182 395) | (199 723) | (207 712) | (216 020) |
Closing balance (£) | (1 597 500) | (1 927 121) | (2 243 063) | (2 816 361) | (3 908 035) | (4 559 874) | (4 993 068) | (5 192 791) | (5 400 502) | 1 00 5 164 |
Total interest payable (£) | 1 305 533 |
Sheet 1: Inputs
Revenues | £/m2 | NIA (m2) | Totals | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Residential – market dwellings | 2000 | 5000 | £9 803 922 | |
Residential – affordable dwellings | 250 | 1000 | £245 098 | |
Commercial space (rent, yield) | 200 | 4000 | 5.00% | £15 686 275 |
Other revenue | £3 000 000 | |||
Costs | ||||
Land | ||||
Land acquisition price, including transaction costs | £5 281 642 | 2.00% | £5 387 274 | |
Site preparation, infrastructure, utilities | £1 000 000 | |||
Construction | £/m2 | Gross: net | ||
Residential – market dwellings | 1000 | 80% | £6 250 000 | |
Residential – affordable dwellings | 1000 | 80% | £1 250 000 | |
Commercial space | 800 | 85% | £3 764 706 | |
Abnormal costs | £200 000 | |||
Fees and other costs | ||||
Professional fees (% total construction costs) | 10.00% | £1 146 471 | ||
Contingency (% total construction costs) | 3.00% | £343 941 | ||
Planning fees | £5000 | |||
Building control, NHBC, etc. | £20 000 | |||
Planning obligations | £50 000 | |||
Infrastructure levy | £100 000 | |||
Other fees (e.g. legal, loan, valuation) | £200 000 | |||
Marketing costs | £100 000 | |||
Other assumptions | ||||
Sale transaction costs (% sale price) | 2.00% | |||
Letting transaction costs (% annual rent) | 15.00% |
Sheet 2: Cash flow
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||
Revenues | ||||||||||
Residential – market | 9 803 922 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 4 901 961 | – | 4 901 961 |
Residential – affordable | 245 098 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 122 549 | – | 122 549 |
Commercial space | 15 686 275 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 15 686 275 |
Other revenue | 3 000 000 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3 000 000 |
TOTAL REVENUE | 28 735 294 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5 024 510 | – | 23 710 784 |
Costs | ||||||||||
Land costs | 5 387 274 | (5 387 274) | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Site preparation, infrastructure, utilities | 1 000 000 | (1 000 000) | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Residential – market dwellings | 6 250 000 | – | (312 500) | (312 500) | (625 000) | (1 250 000) | (1 875 000) | (1 250 000) | (625 000) | – |
Residential – affordable dwellings | 1 250 000 | – | (62 500) | (62 500) | (125 000) | (250 000) | (375 000) | (250 000) | (125 000) | – |
Commercial space | 3 764 706 | – | (188 235) | (188 235) | (376 471) | (752 941) | (1 129 412) | (752 941) | (376 471) | – |
Abnormal costs | 200 000 | – | (10 000) | (10 000) | (20 000) | (40 000) | (60 000) | (40 000) | (20 000) | – |
Professional fees | 1 146 471 | – | (57 324) | (57 324) | (114 647) | (229 294) | (343 941) | (229 294) | (114 647) | – |
Contingency | 343 941 | – | (17 197) | (17 197) | (34 394) | (68 788) | (103 182) | (68 788) | (34 394) | – |
Planning fees | 5000 | – | (250) | (250) | (500) | (1000) | (1500) | (1000) | (500) | – |
Building control, NHBC, etc. | 20 000 | – | (1000) | (1000) | (2000) | (4000) | (6000) | (4000) | (2000) | – |
Planning obligations | 50 000 | – | (2500) | (2500) | (5000) | (10 000) | (15 000) | (10 000) | (5000) | – |
Infrastructure levy | 100 000 | – | (5000) | (5000) | (10 000) | (20 000) | (30 000) | (20 000) | (10 000) | – |
Other fees | 50 000 | – | (2500) | (2500) | (5000) | (10 000) | (15 000) | (10 000) | (5000) | – |
Marketing costs | 100 000 | – | (5000) | (5000) | (10 000) | (20 000) | (30 000) | (20 000) | (10 000) | – |
TOTAL COSTS | 19 667 392 | (6 387 274) | (664 006) | (664 006) | (1 328 012) | (2 656 024) | (3 984 035) | (2 656 024) | (1 328 012) | – |
Net cash flow | (6 387 274) | (664 006) | (664 006) | (1 328 012) | (2 656 024) | (3 984 035) | 2 368 486 | (1 328 012) | 23 710 784 |
Sheet 3: Residual land valuation
A lump sum developer's profit of 20% of development value has been added to the development costs and the cash flow has been discounted at the quarterly equivalent of a 6% per annum finance rate.
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||
TOTAL REVENUE | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5 024 510 | – | 23 710 784 | |
TOTAL COSTS | (6 387 274) | (664 006) | (664 006) | (1 328 012) | (2 656 024) | (3 984 035) | (2 656 024) | (1 328 012) | – | |
Net cash flow | (6 387 274) | (664 006) | (664 006) | (1 328 012) | (2 656 024) | (3 984 035) | 2 368 486 | (1 328 012) | 23 710 784 | |
Developer's profit (% development value) | 20% | (5 747 059) | ||||||||
Net cash flow including Developer's profit | (6 387 274) | (664 006) | (664 006) | (1 328 012) | (2 656 024) | (3 984 035) | 2 368 486 | (1 328 012) | 17 963 725 | |
NPV (£) (discounted at finance rate) | 6.00% | 1 790 950 |
It is then possible to use the cash flow to iterate the residual land value by setting the NPV to 0, as shown below.
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||
TOTAL REVENUE | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5 024 510 | – | 23 710 784 | |
TOTAL COSTS | (8 178 224) | (664 006) | (664 006) | (1 328 012) | (2 656 024) | (3 984 035) | (2 656 024) | (1 328 012) | – | |
Net cash flow | (8 178 224) | (664 006) | (664 006) | (1 328 012) | (2 656 024) | (3 984 035) | 2 368 486 | (1 328 012) | 23 710 784 | |
Developer's profit (% development value) | 20% | (5 747 059) | ||||||||
Net cash flow including developer's profit | (8 178 224) | (664 006) | (664 006) | (1 328 012) | (2 656 024) | (3 984 035) | 2 368 486 | (1 328 012) | 17 963 725 | |
NPV (£) (discounted at finance rate) | 6.00% | – |
Sheet 4: Ungeared (unlevered) cash flow
Reverting to the original cash flow (but keeping the revised land price), it is possible to calculate performance metrics. Profitability has increased compared to the residual land valuation because finance costs are not included in this project cash flow.
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
TOTAL REVENUE | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5 024 510 | – | 23 710 784 |
TOTAL COSTS | (8 178 224) | (664 006) | (664 006) | (1 328 012) | (2 656 024) | (3 984 035) | (2 656 024) | (1 328 012) | – |
Net cash flow | (8 178 224) | (664 006) | (664 006) | (1 328 012) | (2 656 024) | (3 984 035) | 2 368 486 | (1 328 012) | 23 710 784 |
Project (ungeared) IRR | 26.63% | ||||||||
Total costs (£) | 18 802 318 | ||||||||
Total revenue (£) | 26 079 271 | ||||||||
Profit (£) | 7 276 952 | ||||||||
Equity multiple | 1.39 | ||||||||
Profit on cost | 38.70% |
Sheet 5: Geared (levered) cash flow – senior debt – side‐by‐side arrangement
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
TOTAL REVENUE | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5 024 510 | – | 23 710 784 |
TOTAL COSTS | (8 178 224) | (664 006) | (664 006) | (1 328 012) | (2 656 024) | (3 984 035) | (2 656 024) | (1 328 012) | – |
Net cash flow | (8 178 224) | (664 006) | (664 006) | (1 328 012) | (2 656 024) | (3 984 035) | 2 368 486 | (1 328 012) | 23 710 784 |
Senior debt | |||||||||
Drawdown | 4 906 934 | 398 404 | 398 404 | 796 807 | 1 593 614 | 2 390 421 | – | 796 807 | – |
Repayment | – | – | – | – | – | – | (2 368 486) | – | (9 651 797) |
Interest paid | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Total senior debt Cash flow | 4 906 934 | 398 404 | 398 404 | 796 807 | 1 593 614 | 2 390 421 | (2 368 486) | 796 807 | (9 651 797) |
Levered equity cash flow | (3 271 290) | (265 602) | (265 602) | (531 205) | (1 062 409) | (1 593 614) | – | (531 205) | 14 058 988 |
IRR | 53.19% | ||||||||
Equity cost (£) | 7 520 927 | ||||||||
Equity revenue (£) | 14 058 988 | ||||||||
Profit (£) | 6 538 061 | ||||||||
Equity multiple | 1.87 | ||||||||
Return on equity | 86.93% | ||||||||
Balance available for repayment | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2 368 486 | – | 23 710 784 |
Senior debt table | |||||||||
Balance (bop) | – | 4 906 934 | 5 365 557 | 5 829 808 | 6 698 160 | 8 373 975 | 10 867 164 | 8 632 042 | 9 534 783 |
Interest due @ annual rate of | – | 60 219 | 65 847 | 71 545 | 82 201 | 102 767 | 133 364 | 105 934 | 117 013 |
interest paid current (1 = yes, 0 = no) | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Drawdown @ loan‐to‐cost ratio of | 4 906 934 | 398 404 | 398 404 | 796 807 | 1 593 614 | 2 390 421 | – | 796 807 | – |
repayment | – | – | – | – | – | – | (2 368 486) | – | (9 651 797) |
Balance (eop) | 4 906 934 | 5 365 557 | 5 829 808 | 6 698 160 | 8 373 975 | 10 867 164 | 8 632 042 | 9 534 783 | – |
Assumes senior lender pays share of ALL costs, including land. If developer is to pay all land cost, then set drawdown in period 0 to zero.
Sheet 6: Geared (levered) cash flow – senior and mezzanine debt – side‐by‐side arrangement
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||
TOTAL REVENUE | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5 024 510 | – | 23 710 784 | |
TOTAL COSTS | (8 178 224) | (664 006) | (664 006) | (1 328 012) | (2 656 024) | (3 984 035) | (2 656 024) | (1 328 012) | – | |
Net cash flow | (8 178 224) | (664 006) | (664 006) | (1 328 012) | (2 656 024) | (3 984 035) | 2 368 486 | (1 328 012) | 23 710 784 | |
Mezzanine debt | ||||||||||
Drawdown | 1 226 734 | 99 601 | 99 601 | 199 202 | 398 404 | 597 605 | – | 199 202 | – | |
Repayment | – | – | – | – | – | – | (2 368 486) | – | (680 988) | |
Interest paid | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
Total mezz debt Cash flow | 1 226 734 | 99 601 | 99 601 | 199 202 | 398 404 | 597 605 | (2 368 486) | 199 202 | (680 988) | |
Senior debt | ||||||||||
Drawdown | 4 906 934 | 398 404 | 398 404 | 796 807 | 1 593 614 | 2 390 421 | – | 796 807 | – | |
Repayment | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | (12 078 773) | |
Interest paid | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
Total senior debt Cash flow | 4 906 934 | 398 404 | 398 404 | 796 807 | 1 593 614 | 2 390 421 | – | 796 807 | (12 078 773) | |
Levered equity cash flow | (2 044 556) | (166 001) | (166 001) | (332 003) | (664 006) | (996 009) | – | (332 003) | 10 951 024 | |
IRR | 76.38% | |||||||||
Equity cost (£) | 4 700 580 | |||||||||
Equity revenue (£) | 10 951 024 | |||||||||
Profit (£) | 6 250 444 | |||||||||
Equity multiple | 2.33 | |||||||||
Return on equity | 132.97% | |||||||||
Balance available for repayment | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2 368 486 | – | 23 710 784 | |
Mezzanine debt table | ||||||||||
Balance (bop) | – | 1 226 734 | 1 350 166 | 1 475 996 | 1 703 871 | 2 135 375 | 2 774 463 | 459 875 | 668 011 | |
Interest due @ annual rate of | 8.00% | – | 23 831 | 26 229 | 28 673 | 33 100 | 41 483 | 53 898 | 8934 | 12 977 |
interest paid current (1 = yes, 0 = no) | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Drawdown @ loan‐to‐cost ratio of | 15% | 1 226 734 | 99 601 | 99 601 | 199 202 | 398 404 | 597 605 | – | 199 202 | – |
repayment | – | – | – | – | – | – | (2 368 486) | – | (680 988) | |
Balance (eop) | 1 226 734 | 1 350 166 | 1 475 996 | 1 703 871 | 2 135 375 | 2 774 463 | 459 875 | 668 011 | – | |
Balance available for repayment | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 23 029 797 | |
Senior debt table | ||||||||||
Balance (bop) | – | 4 906 934 | 5 365 557 | 5 829 808 | 6 698 160 | 8 373 975 | 10 867 164 | 11 000 528 | 11 932 336 | |
Interest due @ annual rate of | 5.00% | – | 60 219 | 65 847 | 71 545 | 82 201 | 102 767 | 133 364 | 135 001 | 146 436 |
interest paid current (1 = yes, 0 = no) | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Drawdown @ loan‐to‐cost ratio of | 60% | 4 906 934 | 398 404 | 398 404 | 796 807 | 1 593 614 | 2 390 421 | – | 796 807 | – |
repayment | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | (12 078 773) | |
Balance (eop) | 4 906 934 | 5 365 557 | 5 829 808 | 6 698 160 | 8 373 975 | 10 867 164 | 11 000 528 | 11 932 336 | – |
Sheet 7: Geared (levered) cash flow – senior debt – equity first arrangement
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||
TOTAL REVENUE | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5 024 510 | – | 23 710 784 | |
TOTAL COSTS | (8 178 224) | (664 006) | (664 006) | (1 328 012) | (2 656 024) | (3 984 035) | (2 656 024) | (1 328 012) | – | |
Net cash flow | (8 178 224) | (664 006) | (664 006) | (1 328 012) | (2 656 024) | (3 984 035) | 2 368 486 | (1 328 012) | 23 710 784 | |
Senior debt | ||||||||||
Drawdown | – | 258 893 | 664 006 | 1 328 012 | 2 656 024 | 3 984 035 | 2 656 024 | 1 328 012 | – | |
Repayment | – | – | – | – | – | – | (2 368 486) | – | (10 968 212) | |
Interest paid | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
Total senior debt Cash flow | – | 258 893 | 664 006 | 1 328 012 | 2 656 024 | 3 984 035 | 287 537 | 1 328 012 | (10 968 212) | |
Levered equity Cash flow | (8 178 224) | (405 113) | – | – | – | – | 2 656 024 | – | 12 742 572 | |
IRR | 36.09% | |||||||||
Equity cost (£) | 8 583 337 | |||||||||
Equity revenue (£) | 15 398 596 | |||||||||
Profit (£) | 6 815 259 | |||||||||
Equity multiple | 1.79 | |||||||||
Profit on cost | 79.40% | |||||||||
Accumulated Expenditure | 8 178 224 | 8 842 230 | 9 506 236 | 10 834 248 | 13 490 271 | 17 474 306 | 20 130 330 | 21 458 342 | 21 458 342 | |
Equity cash flow | 8 583 337 | 8 178 224 | 405 113 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Balance available for repayment | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2 368 486 | – | 23 710 784 | |
Senior debt table | ||||||||||
Balance (bop) | – | – | 258 893 | 926 076 | 2 265 453 | 4 949 279 | 8 994 053 | 9 391 967 | 10 835 239 | |
Interest due @ annual rate of | 5.00% | – | – | 3177 | 11 365 | 27 802 | 60 739 | 110 377 | 115 260 | 132 973 |
interest paid current (1 = yes, 0 = no) | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Drawdown @ loan‐to‐cost ratio of | 60% | – | 258 893 | 664 006 | 1 328 012 | 2 656 024 | 3 984 035 | 2 656 024 | 1 328 012 | – |
repayment | – | – | – | – | – | – | (2 368 486) | – | (10 968 212) | |
Balance (eop) | – | 258 893 | 926 076 | 2 265 453 | 4 949 279 | 8 994 053 | 9 391 967 | 10 835 239 | – | |
Senior debt remaining balance | 12 875 005 | 12 875 005 | 12 616 112 | 11 952 106 | 10 624 094 | 7 968 071 | 3 984 035 | 1 328 012 | – | – |
Sheet 8: Geared (levered) cash flow – senior and mezzanine debt – equity first arrangement
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||
TOTAL REVENUE | – | – | – | – | – | – | 5 024 510 | – | 23 710 784 | |
TOTAL COSTS | (8 178 224) | (664 006) | (664 006) | (1 328 012) | (2 656 024) | (3 984 035) | (2 656 024) | (1 328 012) | – | |
Net cash flow | (8 178 224) | (664 006) | (664 006) | (1 328 012) | (2 656 024) | (3 984 035) | 2 368 486 | (1 328 012) | 23 710 784 | |
Mezzanine debt | ||||||||||
Drawdown | ||||||||||
Repayment | ||||||||||
Interest paid | ||||||||||
Total mezz debt cash flow | ||||||||||
Senior debt | ||||||||||
Drawdown | – | – | – | 105 077 | 2 656 024 | 3 984 035 | 2 656 024 | 1 328 012 | – | |
Repayment | – | – | – | – | – | – | (2 368 486) | – | (8 671 978) | |
Interest paid | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
Total senior debt cash flow | – | – | – | 105 077 | 2 656 024 | 3 984 035 | 287 537 | 1 328 012 | (8 671 978) | |
Levered equity cash flow | (8 178 224) | (664 006) | (664 006) | (1 222 935) | – | – | 2 656 024 | – | 15 038 806 | |
IRR | 32.10% | |||||||||
Equity cost (£) | 10 729 171 | |||||||||
Equity revenue (£) | 17 694 829 | |||||||||
Profit (£) | 6 965 659 | |||||||||
Equity multiple | 1.65 | |||||||||
Profit on cost | 64.92% | |||||||||
Accumulated Expenditure | 8 178 224 | 8 842 230 | 9 506 236 | 10 834 248 | 13 490 271 | 17 474 306 | 20 130 330 | 21 458 342 | 21 458 342 | |
Equity cash flow | 4 291 668 | 4 291 668 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Balance available for repayment | ||||||||||
Mezzanine debt table | ||||||||||
Balance (bop) | – | 3 886 556 | 4 697 481 | 5 539 061 | 6 971 384 | 7 234 916 | 7 508 410 | 7 792 243 | 8 086 805 | |
Interest due @ annual rate of | 16.00% | – | 146 920 | 177 574 | 209 388 | 263 532 | 273 494 | 283 833 | 294 562 | 305 697 |
interest paid current (1 = yes, 0 = no) | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Drawdown @ loan‐to‐cost ratio of | 30% | 3 886 556 | 664 006 | 664 006 | 1 222 935 | – | – | – | – | – |
repayment | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | (8 392 502) | |
Balance (eop) | 3 886 556 | 4 697 481 | 5 539 061 | 6 971 384 | 7 234 916 | 7 508 410 | 7 792 243 | 8 086 805 | – | |
Mezzanine debt remaining balance | 6 437 503 | 2 550 947 | 1 886 941 | 1 222 935 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Balance available for repayment | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2 368 486 | – | 23 710 784 | |
Senior debt table | ||||||||||
Balance (bop) | – | – | – | – | 105 077 | 2 762 390 | 6 780 326 | 7 151 073 | 8 566 844 | |
Interest due @ annual rate of | 5.00% | – | – | – | – | 1290 | 33 901 | 83 210 | 87 760 | 105 134 |
interest paid current (1 = yes, 0 = no) | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Drawdown @ loan‐to‐cost ratio of | 50% | – | – | – | 105 077 | 2 656 024 | 3 984 035 | 2 656 024 | 1 328 012 | – |
Repayment | – | – | – | – | – | – | (2 368 486) | – | (8 671 978) | |
Balance (eop) | – | – | – | 105 077 | 2 762 390 | 6 780 326 | 7 151 073 | 8 566 844 | – | |
Senior debt remaining balance | 10 729 171 | 10 729 171 | 10 729 171 | 10 729 171 | 10 624 094 | 7 968 071 | 3 984 035 | 1 328 012 | (0) | (0) |
Sheet 9: Geared cash flow – senior debt side‐by‐side arrangement with a simple profit share arrangement
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||
Levered equity Cash flowa | (3 271 290) | (265 602) | (265 602) | (531 205) | (1 062 409) | (1 593 614) | – | (531 205) | 14 058 988 | |
Promote structure b | ||||||||||
Inputs: | ||||||||||
Equity TRR (promote agreement) | 20% | 4.66% | ||||||||
Proportion of surplus to investor | 50% | |||||||||
Proportion of surplus to developer | 50% | |||||||||
Promote arrangement | ||||||||||
Balance (bop) | – | (3 271 290) | (3 689 449) | (4 127 109) | (4 850 782) | (6 139 409) | (8 019 335) | (8 393 318) | (9 315 946) | |
Compounded at developer's IRR | – | (152 557) | (172 058) | (192 468) | (226 217) | (286 312) | (373 983) | (391 424) | (434 450) | |
Levered cash flow (from above) | (3 271 290) | (265 602) | (265 602) | (531 205) | (1 062 409) | (1 593 614) | – | (531 205) | 14 058 988 | |
Balance (eop) | (3 271 290) | (3 689 449) | (4 127 109) | (4 850 782) | (6 139 409) | (8 019 335) | (8 393 318) | (9 315 946) | 4 308 591 | |
Surplus | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 4 308 591 | |
Proportion of surplus to lender | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2 154 296 | |
Net cash flow to equity | (3 271 290) | (265 602) | (265 602) | (531 205) | (1 062 409) | (1 593 614) | – | (531 205) | 11 904 692 | |
IRR | 37.33% | |||||||||
Equity cost (£) | 7 520 927 | |||||||||
Equity revenue (£) | 11 904 692 | |||||||||
Profit (£) | 4 383 765 | |||||||||
Equity multiple | 1.58 | |||||||||
Return on equity | 58.29% |
a The net cash‐flow line could be swapped for any other on which the promote structure could be applied.
b Tier 1 = 20% return to developer; tier 2 = split of surplus between developer and investor.
Sheet 10: Geared cash flow ‐ senior debt side‐by‐side arrangement with a waterfall promote structure
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||
Levered Equity Cash Flow | (3 271 290) | (265 602) | (265 602) | (531 205) | (1 062 409) | (1 593 614) | – | (531 205) | 14 058 988 | |
Promote structure | ||||||||||
Promoter Equity Contribution (% Equity Proportion) | 10% | Preferred Return: | Profit Split: | |||||||
Investor Equity Contribution (% Equity Proportion) | 90% | From | Up to | Promoter | Investor | |||||
Tier 1 | 0.00% | 20.00% | 10.00% | 90.00% | ||||||
Tier 2 | 20.00% | 25.00% | 25.00% | 75.00% | ||||||
Tier 3 | 25.00% | 40.00% | 60.00% | |||||||
Contributions | ||||||||||
Net cash flow (from above) | (3 271 290) | (265 602) | (265 602) | (531 205) | (1 062 409) | (1 593 614) | – | (531 205) | 14 058 988 | |
Promoter Equity Contribution | 10% | (327 129) | (26 560) | (26 560) | (53 120) | (106 241) | (159 361) | – | (53 120) | – |
Investor Equity Contribution | 90% | (2 944 161) | (239 042) | (239 042) | (478 084) | (956 168) | (1 434 253) | – | (478 084) | – |
Total Equity Contribution | (3 271 290) | (265 602) | (265 602) | (531 205) | (1 062 409) | (1 593 614) | – | (531 205) | – | |
Equity Cash Flow Available for Distribution | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 14 058 988 | |
Tier 1 | ||||||||||
Balance (bop) | – | (3 271 290) | (3 689 449) | (4 127 109) | (4 850 782) | (6 139 409) | (8 019 335) | (8 393 318) | (9 315 946) | |
Total Equity Contribution | (3 271 290) | (265 602) | (265 602) | (531 205) | (1 062 409) | (1 593 614) | – | (531 205) | – | |
Balance (bop) compounded at Tier 1 IRR | 4.66% | – | (152 557) | (172 058) | (192 468) | (226 217) | (286 312) | (373 983) | (391 424) | (434 450) |
Tier 1 Accrual Distribution | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 9 750 396 | |
Balance (eop) | (3 271 290) | (3 689 449) | (4 127 109) | (4 850 782) | (6 139 409) | (8 019 335) | (8 393 318) | (9 315 946) | – | |
Promoter Tier 1 Equity Cash Flow | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 975 040 | |
Investor Tier 1 Equity Cash Flow | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8 775 357 | |
Remaining Cash to Distribute to Tier 2 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 4 308 591 | |
Tier 2 | ||||||||||
Balance (bop) | – | (3 271 290) | (3 724 570) | (4 203 856) | (4 976 241) | (6 324 143) | (8 280 582) | (8 755 649) | (9 789 176) | |
Total Equity Contribution | (3 271 290) | (265 602) | (265 602) | (531 205) | (1 062 409) | (1 593 614) | – | (531 205) | – | |
Compounded at Tier 2 IRR | 5.74% | – | (187 678) | (213 683) | (241 181) | (285 493) | (362 824) | (475 067) | (502 323) | (561 617) |
Tier 2 Accrual Distribution | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10 350 794 | |
Balance (eop) | (3 271 290) | (3 724 570) | (4 203 856) | (4 976 241) | (6 324 143) | (8 280 582) | (8 755 649) | (9 789 176) | – | |
Promoter Tier 2 Promote Cash Flow | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 90 060 | |
Promoter Tier 2 Equity Cash Flow | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 127 584 | |
Investor Tier 2 Equity Cash Flow | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 382 753 | |
Remaining Cash to Distribute to Tier 3 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3 708 194 | |
Tier 3 | ||||||||||
Promoter Tier 3 Promote Cash Flow | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1 112 458 | |
Promoter Tier 3 Equity Cash Flow | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1 038 294 | |
Investor Tier 3 Equity Cash Flow | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1 557 441 | |
Equity Cash Flows | ||||||||||
Promoter Equity Contribution | (327 129) | (26 560) | (26 560) | (53 120) | (106 241) | (159 361) | – | (53 120) | – | |
Promoter Distribution | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3 343 436 | |
Promoter Net Cash Flow | (327 129) | (26 560) | (26 560) | (53 120) | (106 241) | (159 361) | – | (53 120) | 3 343 436 | |
Investor Equity Contribution | (2 944 161) | (239 042) | (239 042) | (478 084) | (956 168) | (1 434 253) | – | (478 084) | – | |
Investor Distribution | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10 715 552 | |
Investor Net Cash Flow | (2 944 161) | (239 042) | (239 042) | (478 084) | (956 168) | (1 434 253) | – | (478 084) | 10 715 552 | |
Promoter's performance metrics | Investor's performance metrics | |||||||||
IRR | 161.57% | IRR | 37.34% | |||||||
Equity cost (£) | 752 093 | Equity cost (£) | 6 768 835 | |||||||
Equity revenue (£) | 3 343 436 | Equity revenue (£) | 10 715 552 | |||||||
Profit (£) | 2 591 343 | Profit (£) | 3 946 717 | |||||||
Equity multiple | 4.45 | Equity multiple | 1.58 | |||||||
Return on equity | 344.55% | Return on equity | 58.31% |
Some sites may be contaminated because of their previous use and valuers have a responsibility to investigate, consider and report on its impact where appropriate. Taylor et al. (2016) investigated the impact of contamination on house prices and found that contamination more than doubles the negative influence commercial properties have on neighbouring dwelling values. However, they found little evidence of stigma effects once a contaminated site is remedied. The negative spill‐over effects associated with remediated contaminated sites are largely indistinguishable from spill‐over effects from commercial properties with no known contamination.
Valuers should investigate previous land uses of the subject property and neighbours and should report possible or actual contamination if spotted. Types of environmental matters/contamination that valuers should look out for include building materials that are known to cause problems (such as asbestos), disused mines and quarries, flood risk, coastal erosion and other abnormal ground conditions, waste and high‐voltage equipment. Information might be obtained from local authority sources such as building control, planning and environmental health. Also, environmental protection authorities, utility companies, historic maps and aerial photography may provide valuable insight.
It is often difficult to find comparable evidence to help value a contaminated site because the variability of location‐specific contaminants and resultant severity and extent of contamination will often lead to different estimates of impaired value. The accepted approach, in the likely absence of comparable evidence, seems to be the ‘cost to correct’ approach, where the valuer values the site assuming the no contamination and then deduct the cost of remediation (where feasible) and any adjustment for the effect of stigma (see below). Heavily contaminated sites may require remediation that costs more than the site is worth, resulting in a negative value (a liability rather than an asset).
Stigma refers to the value impact of potential risk and uncertainty surrounding the future use of a contaminated site, even though the contamination may have been removed. The degree of stigma may depend on future regulations and liability regimes in relation to the contamination. Developers might seek discounts to reflect stigma or may decline development altogether. Initial perception of problem may induce a substantial drop in value (dread factors) but as understanding improves, value may increase to point where it relates to logical factors such as clean‐up costs, control measures, delay and contingent liabilities. Not all purchasers will be equally risk sensitive; local developers may be prepared to outbid institutional investors. The attitude of lenders is also important; if the proposed use is residential, lenders may not be prepared to offer mortgages on the dwellings. In practice the valuation impact of stigma is difficult to quantify; it may be accounted for by either adjusting the yield or making an end allowance.
For example, a valuation is required of a freehold factory situated on contaminated land. The freeholder has legal responsibility for the contamination. The current rent is £800 000 per annum and the 15‐year lease has two years remaining. The current tenant does not intend to renew the lease and remediation is deemed necessary. An environmental impact assessment suggests a £2 000 000 remediation cost and a period of one year in which to complete the work. The yield for uncontaminated comparable property investments is 9.5%. The current market rent is £850 000 per annum.
Term rent (£ p.a.) | 800 000 | |
YP 2 years @ 9.5%a | 1.7473 | |
1 397 840 | ||
Reversion to MR (£ p.a.) | 850 000 | |
YP perpetuity @ 10.5%b | 9.5238 | |
PV £1 for 3 years @ 10.5%c | 0.7412 | |
6 000 184 | ||
7 398 024 | ||
Remediation costs: | ||
Clean‐up (£) | (2 000 000) | |
Finance @ 8% for 6 monthsd (£) | (78 461) | |
Cost of environmental impact assessment (£) | (14 000) | |
Total (£) | (2 092 461) | |
PV £1 for 2 years @ 8%e | 0.8573 | |
(1 793 867) | ||
Valuation before PCs (£) | 5 604 157 |
a Although the security of a term rent below market rent would normally attract a reduction from the yield, in this case, because of the contaminated state of the site, the yield has not been reduced.
b The yield has been increased by 1% to reflect stigma.
c Discounting the reversionary value over three years builds in the one‐year clean‐up period.
d It is assumed the clean‐up costs are debt‐financed at 8% per annum, but the costs are spread evenly over the year (i.e. interest only paid on total cost over six months).
e Costs are deferred until the end of the current lease at the finance rate of 8% (it is assumed money can be invested at the same rate that it can be borrowed).
The adjustment to the yield to account for uncertainty at re‐letting due to possible residual contamination and stigma is subjective and it might be argued that an explicit end allowance would be more appropriate. An adjustment to the yield will have a greater effect on property investments that are valued at lower yields than those valued at higher yields. For example, take two investment opportunities, a factory in the north of England and a shop in the West End of London, both valued at £500 000 and both requiring the same expenditure on remediation:
Factory | Shop | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Unimpaired valuation: | ||||||||
Income (£ p.a.) | 500 000 | 250 000 | ||||||
YP perpetuity @ 10% (factory)/5% (shop) | 10.0000 | 20.0000 | ||||||
Valuation (£) | 5 000 000 | 5 000 000 | ||||||
Impaired valuation: | ||||||||
Income (£ p.a.) | 500 000 | 250 000 | ||||||
YP perpetuity @ 11% (factory)/6% (shop) | 9.0909 | 16.6667 | ||||||
4 545 455 | 4 166 667 | |||||||
Less remediation costs, say (£) | (1 000 000) | (1 000 000) | ||||||
valuations before PCs (£) | 3 545 455 | 3 166 667 | ||||||
Reduction in value | 29% | 37% |
Ceteris paribus the shop suffers a greater depreciation in value. One solution is to adjust the yield proportionately, say an increase of 10% would mean an impaired yield for the factory of 11% and 5.5% for the shop, thus producing the same diminution in value for the shop and factory.
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