‘The measure of intelligence is the ability to change.’

– Albert Einstein

11.1. Introduction

‘Climate change adaptation is the process of adjusting to current or expected climate change and its effects’ (IPCC, 2014a). Even taking into account that some progress has been achieved due to present climate change initiatives, it is a certainty that we will breach 1.5 degrees centigrade of global warming in the early 2030s and may remain unprepared. The global reality of the climate crisis could hardly be more serious now. July 2021 alone saw the effects of several chaotic weather events; over 200 people perished in floods in Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium, causing unprecedented scenes of devastation in northern Europe, while at least 50 people died and a further 400,000 people were displaced in central China after heavy downpours. In western India many properties were flooded and 125 people perished in a torrential monsoon. At the same time in western Canada and the USA, a blistering set of heat waves provided the tinder for wildfires to rage for months, while drought threatens areas from Algeria to Yemen.

As I write this chapter, Covid-19 has killed over 4 million people and the UK government is advising us that, in the long term, we must adjust and learn to live with the virus because we have vaccines. Many of the lessons learned from the pandemic also apply to climate change. The world has made remarkable progress by working together in developing and testing vaccines in record time. The same degree of concerted effort is needed world-wide to mitigate and adapt to the consequences of global warming. By investing in climate change initiatives and R&D we can both rescue the post pandemic economy and avoid a climate disaster.

The fundamental strategy of climate change preparation is ‘Predict, Prevent and Preserve’. In terms of prediction, scientists have already forecast the longer-term causes and effects of climate change. We also need continuous prediction of climate fluctuations to prepare for events such as cyclones, floods, heavy downpours and extraordinary heat waves. Prevention is rooted in the elimination of the root causes (e.g. greenhouse gas emissions) as well as mitigation initiatives, as discussed in previous chapters. Preservation lies in dedicated adaptation to the changes to our lifestyles, health and safety caused by climate change in spite of preventative initiatives. In this chapter, climate adaptation processes and actions will be discussed under the following headings:

• Climate Adaptation in the Global Community
• Climate Adaptation in Clean Energy
• Climate Adaptation in Green Supply Chains
• Climate Adaptation in Green Transports
• Climate Adaptation in Retrofitting Houses
• Climate Adaptation and Infrastructure Projects
• Climate Adaptation and Innovation

In each section the ways in which Green Six Sigma can help by making additional contributions will also be discussed.

11.2. Climate Adaptation in the Global Community

At the time of writing there are less than 100 days until more than 190 world leaders will gather in Glasgow at the United Nations COP 26 climate conference on 31 October 2021. This is an excellent opportunity to reboot climate change targets and initiatives. The UK Government calls the summit the world's ‘last best chance’. Although I will complete my manuscript before the conference, this book will be on the market after it takes place. Hence it may be presumptuous, but I will suggest that the agreed communique should include the following:

1. There will be no new oil, gas or coal exploration projects beyond the end of 2021 as recommended by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
2. An increase on the $100 billion (promised in the Paris Climate Agreement) by rich nations to support poorer countries in cutting emissions and a pledge to deliver this as soon as possible.
3. Introduce annual audits by the United Nations of top 10 greenhouse gas emitters in order to monitor the targets of the Paris Climate Agreement.
4. Set new targets for each of the signed-up countries, e.g.
   • No new diesel or petrol vehicles after 2030
   • No fossil fuel domestic heating after 2035
   • Reduction in Methane emission
5. Introduce afforestation targets for each country as it is difficult to monitor voluntary carbon offsets or ‘greenwashing’.
6. Deliver $100 billion fund for climate initiatives to poorer countries ASAP.

As host, the UK is pivotal to the success of any planned objectives. This could start by committing to end all new fossil fuel projects, and rolling out a nationwide clean energy programme with grants to accelerate decarbonised domestic heating.

11.3. Climate Adaptation in Clean Energy

As noted in Chapter 7, the biggest source of greenhouse gases is fossil fuel power stations and good progress has been made in the field of obtaining clean energy supplies from renewable sources and nuclear power. However, the current programmes in clean energy all over the world suggest that some amount of carbon dioxide from other energy sources in the future is inevitable. There are two sources of alternative fuels that can be considered and have the advantage of having processes in place for adaptation. These low carbon energy funds are biofuels and so-called ‘green gases’ (e.g. biogas and hydrogen produced by electricity). We may also have to live with power stations run by natural gas, which is considered to be less polluting than other fossil fuels.

We can either capture the carbon dioxide from the exhaust pipes of power plants and bury it in underground rocks or actively remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere for storage. Major oil and gas companies (e.g. Exxon Mobile, Shell and BP) are investing heavily in carbon capture research projects. ExxonMobil has an equity share in about 20% of the world's carbon capture capacity. Shell has developed and patented carbon capture technology utilising a re-generatable amine (a nitrogen atom) that offers cutting-edge performance.

11.4. Climate Adaptation in Green Supply Chains

Green supply chains will have a central role in supporting societal adaptation to the physical impacts of climate change, especially in more directly affected sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, forestry, construction or transportation.

The supply chain discipline has progressed towards a common understanding of resilience to adapt to changing business conditions because of the emergence of new competitors, new products and altered political, economic and legal conditions. Adaptation plans for coping with the Covid-19 pandemic and climate change are also beginning to emerge. There is a growing emphasis internationally on engaging supply chain businesses in adaptation, given their potential to develop technologies and innovative solutions, and enhancing the cost-effectiveness of certain adaptation measures. Large national and multinational corporations are among the key actors in this respect. Already, many of these corporations are purportedly taking steps to adapt their operations to climate change, as Case Example 11.1 illustrates.

It is pivotal that all major organisations, both in the manufacturing and service sectors, publish their ‘Net-Zero Carbon Plan’ and evaluate its progress every year as part of their Annual Report. This plan will also include the systems and processes in place to adapt to the consequences of climate change. A well-designed and executed blueprint is most likely to project the organisation as a leading company of environmental sustainability and act as a competitive advantage. There are a few sustainable business awards in different sectors of the supply chain that are independently judged by an expert jury representing a cross-section of the business sector. These awards also act as a facilitator towards a more sustainable future.

A vital link in the foods supply chain is agriculture. Climate change presents significant risks for agriculture as farmers, whether in a rich country or a poor one, are certain to be adversely affected by any future changes in higher mean temperatures, drought and floods caused by climate change. Adaptation pathways planning should be in place to allow stakeholders to identify and evaluate adaptation options.

In July 2021, the Prince of Wales launched a booklet to translate 50 sustainability terms into a language that is more accessible to farmers. Bill Gates (Gates, 2021) suggested that CGIAR (the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research) could help farmers provide a wider variety of crops and livestock so that one setback does not have the effect of wiping them out. The National Food Strategy Report of the UK, published in June 2021, recommends that the UK government should “nudge” people towards plant-based foods in an effort to cut national meat consumption in the interests of the environment and animal welfare. We should also shore up our natural defences to protect agriculture – this is discussed further in Section 11.8.

11.5. Climate Adaptation in Green Transports

The transportation industry is emitting 14% of greenhouse gases and the aviation sector is responsible for a large portion of these emissions. Research studies (Lee et al., 2021) have modelled the impact of climate change-imposed constraints on the recoverability of airline networks. The climate change adaptation activities of multinational airlines have been focused on evaluating the costs of disruptions in the form of flight delays and cancellations, as well as passenger misconnections. There is also some evidence of research in the field of aviation fuels and finding an alternative to fossil fuel-based kerosene. A study by Seyam et al. (2021) has found that the maximum overall thermal efficiencies of hybrid turbofan engines are achieved by using a fuel composed of 75% methanol and 25% hydrogen, which reduces carbon emissions by 65% compared to fossil fuels. However, there is a long way to go before we see commercial airlines running on this low carbon fuel.

Both the aviation industry and oil and gas corporations are investing in innovative fuel concepts that may provide environmental benefits. While some of these are already being produced and used regularly in aircraft operations (e.g. Sustainable Aviation Fuels or SAF), others are still under research and development, such as Lower Carbon Aviation Fuels and Hydrogen. Air BP's SAF is called BP Biojet and is currently made from used cooking oil and other wastes (such as household wastes and algae). Traditional jet fuel is blended with SAF to make it suitable for long-haul flights. Air BP claims that SAF gives an impressive reduction of up to 80% in carbon emissions over the life cycle of the fuel compared to the traditional jet fuel that it replaces. In the continuing quest for carbon-free aviation fuel, research is ongoing to evaluate hydrogen as a possible solution in the future. However, several factors are currently against the possible use of hydrogen on commercial flights, such as on-board storage, safety concerns and the high cost of producing the fuel. We need more research to mitigate these challenges.

Hydrogen combustion engines are also the most likely solution for long-distance buses and trucks. Research on hydrogen-fuelled internal combustion to replace fossil fuels has been ongoing for decades. However, hydrogen engines still have the problems of lower volumetric efficiencies and frequent pre-ignition events relative to gasoline-fuelled engines. Therefore, we have to keep faith for a breakthrough in the path towards carbon-free long-distance road transports.

The progress regarding green passenger cars is encouraging. We are gradually adapting ourselves to using plug-in electric cars and perhaps all electric adaptation could be achieved in European countries by 2030. In doing so, we need to improve the infrastructure and replace fossil fuel service stations with electric charge point (ECP) stations. In the UK Tesco have implemented the availability of free electric charging bays at some 400 stores in a collaboration with Volkswagen and Pod Point, with a variety of power chargers all using completely green energy.

11.6. Climate Adaptation in Retrofitting Houses

As consumers, all of us together can have a huge impact on the demand side of climate adaptation. We can influence the market by choosing the nature of the energy supply we have, what kind of transport we use, what sort of food we eat or what type of houses we live in. If all of us make individual changes towards carbon neutral products and services then this can add up to a huge total reduction in carbon emission. Fossil fuel driven suppliers will have to change to adapt to customers’ choices.

The processes for climate adaptation in retrofitting houses has an overlap with the climate mitigation processes described in Chapter 10. These mitigation processes will also apply to climate adaptation practices in every household and should include:

1. Reduce energy losses and energy consumption.
2. Replace fossil fuel boilers and water heaters.
3. Seek to use renewable energy.
4. Apply a circular economy by reducing wastes and repairing appliances rather than discarding and replacing them.

We should also prepare against frequent flooding and excessive downpours. As short-term measures, households near potentially flood affected areas should arrange houses with quick-fit flood barriers at their doors and flood pumps should be installed in the local community. However, in order to attain viable longer-term solutions, national governments should invest in flood protection schemes and agile rescue and relief resources. Some examples of flood protection schemes will be discussed in Section 11.7. There are also many examples of flood relief operations over recent years as Case Example 11.2 illustrates.

In fact, supply chain professionals are undervalued in disaster relief operations. It is important that their expertise and resources are deployed to develop and deliver a quick response logistics support, as Case Example 11.3 illustrates.

New design concepts for residential buildings are required to enable low carbon dioxide operations and to adapt to climate change. Furthermore, any climate adaptation strategy for dwellings must also be cognisant of building regulations, new technologies and occupant needs. The good news is that our architects and builders do know how to build green buildings. One positive example is the Bullitt Center in Seattle, which has been designed to stay naturally warm in winter and remain cool in summer. The Center is also equipped with carbon neutral energy saving technologies. Although it is too expensive to build a perfect green residential house like the Bullit Center every time, we can still ensure that our energy efficient homes are constructed at an affordable cost. Architects are already designing eco-friendly energy efficient homes for the future to adapt to climate change. Some of these design features are summarised in Table 11.1.

As discussed in Chapter 10, rather than demolishing large office or residential buildings to build new multi-storeyed structures, builders should refurbish existing buildings to help them adapt to the consequences of climate change.

11.7. Climate Adaptation and Infrastructure Projects

The Economist published an article on 30 May 2020 about the cyclone ‘Amphan’ and its effect. On 16 May an anticlockwise spiral of clouds over the Bay of Bengal detected by satellite warned of an imminent disaster. Four days later Amphan made landfall, gusting at up to 185 km per hour along the coast of West Bengal and Bangladesh. The number of fatalities in Bangladesh amounted to 20 while the death tolls for earlier cyclones had been in their thousands. What was the reason for the considerable saving of lives this time?

The answer lies in the fact that Bangladesh has now developed a layered adaptation plan with an early warning system to evacuate people to concrete cyclone shelters. Seawalls were also built with international support to protect stretches of coastlines. This is an example of a successful climate adaption project to prepare for major cyclones.

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has been assisting over 70 projects on climate change adaptation in more than 50 countries. These multinational schemes are essential to enable developing countries to adapt to the consequences of climate change. I have chosen to focus upon two case examples, as described in Case Examples 11.4 and 11.5.

Developed nations are also investing in climate adaptation and infrastructure projects, as Case Example 11.6 illustrates.

However, in national projects it is often found that due to changes of leadership or political systems the project deliverables are different in reality from those intended in the original project plans.

For example, spurred by the devastation of Hurricane Ike in 2008, a $10 billion flood wall scheme to protect Galveston Island and the Houston Ship Channel ballooned to a budget of $32 billion in 2019.

In another example, the ‘smart city’ projects in China are supposed to assist planners with urban management and safety. The system is designed to help the municipal authorities monitor water levels in real time through sensors. In spite of the merits of these ‘smart city’ projects, when record rainstorms battered the Henan province during July 2021, the city of Zhengzhou situated in central China with a population of 10 million people suffered at least 66 deaths, including 14 in the local subway system and six in the Jingguang Road Tunnel.

Climate adaptation projects are not part of any political paradigm – they are real and designed for saving lives and the environment. We must be both optimistic and determined to deliver project goals.

11.8. Climate Adaptation and Innovation

It is evident that many climate change initiatives, both for mitigation and adaption, require new materials and breakthrough solutions that we need now but do not have. For this we require innovation supported by dedicated research and development. In energy, transport, construction, software and just about any other pursuit, innovation is not just inventing new equipment or designing a novel process. It is also offering a completely fresh way of doing things. We have sufficient demand for innovation to combat the inconvenient consequences of climate change. The essential requirements of upscaling and testing any new product or process in a larger population cannot be denied and these will follow later, but we are now hungrier and there is a greater sense of urgency for the supply side of innovation. Although we have a few affordable zero carbon or low carbon solutions today, unfortunately we do not possess all the necessary technologies or materials to meet the target of zero emissions globally. Therefore, in Table 11.2 is my list of urgently required improved technologies and materials for climate change initiatives – although environmental scientists may suggest more.

Most of the following products are not new but we do need them to be affordable and safe to use. In order to achieve this, we need more research and greater R&D investment hypothecated to climate change research initiatives. President Joe Biden's 2022 budget proposal includes around $36 billion to fight global climate change, of which only $4 billion is allocated to advancing climate research. Other rich nations should follow suit and consider a tax break for R&D investment to encourage private enterprises to invest in R&D for climate research. Large oil and gas corporations and fossil fuel-producing countries must generously support R&D initiatives for zero carbon alternatives to fossil fuels and also for carbon capture projects. The commercial future of fossil fuels as a major energy supplier is not bright in the longer term and their appropriate strategy should be to focus on advancing alternative solutions and the by-products of fractional distillation (e.g. lubricants, asphalt, naphtha, feedstocks, etc.).

11.9. Summary

It is inevitable that in spite of all current mitigation plans to combat climate change, we will gradually feel the impact of global warming in the form of more frequent floods, heat waves and draughts. We will have to live with the medium-term consequences and adapt ourselves with cost-effective measures. There is a sense of optimism after the election of President Joe Biden and expectations are also very high regarding the outcomes of the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP 26.

In this chapter, some essential measures to adapt to the likely consequences of climate change in the different sectors of our lives (e.g. energy, industry, farming, transport and housing) have been outlined. These measures are based on the technologies and processes that we have already and that can be put into practice right now. Green Six Sigma tools and techniques can also help, starting from today. We also need both government and private investments in R&D to develop and innovate materials as well as suitable technology for climate change solutions that are affordable and safe to use.