THREE
Impossible Futures
Imagining Better Offices and Officing
Office shock invites us all to envision a world in which previously impossible futures are possible, where we can harness the mules.
Mules are extreme surprises, impossible futures that happen despite their perceived impossibility. Sometimes, mules are playful. Always, mules are stubborn. Mules do not fit our frames of understanding. It is difficult to categorize these mules or even talk about them without using terminology that doesn’t capture their full potential.
Impossible Futures Are Now Possible
Science fiction brings to life our hopes and fears in visceral ways. Throughout the history of fiction, science fiction has provided a stage for multiple impossible futures. As Yuval Noah Harari writes: “Today science fiction is the most important artistic genre.” For example, Cyberpunk1 imagined impossible futures of technology taking over and bending life as we knew it, while Steampunk2 portrayed impossible futures where industry and energy dominated daily life. Solarpunk probes climate-positive futures that are also more equitable. In the Afrofuturism genre, impossible futures of ethnic equality are often explored as achievable aspirations.3
The twenty-first century opened with more optimism as Afrofuturism4 envisioned social equality and Solarpunk5 a symbiotic relationship between people and planet. Science fiction stretches our thinking and prepares us to be surprised. It also suggests new futures we might want to make.
Continuing this tradition, world building has become the trope in Hollywood for creating compelling stories about the future. Popularized by narrative designer and creative director Alex McDowell in films like Minority Report and Man of Steel, world building enables everyone to enter an impossible future.6 Epic fantasy is set in alternative worlds where heroes go on quests and magic abounds. The story arcs are spectacular. Having roots in epic poetry like The Iliad and The Odyssey, epic fantasy includes the works of J. R. R. Tolkien up through George R. R. Martin, Robert Jordan, and Brandon Sanderson. The worldbuilding in epic fantasy inspires readers to imagine new stories about a range of alternative futures.
The worldbuilding of science fiction and epic fantasy readies us to envision impossible futures,7 including:
Impossible futures that happen too fast to be believable. Before the COVID-19 shutdowns in 2020, many people thought it was impossible to have low-cost high-quality home video teleconferencing available. Many imagined it was possible, but not so soon.
Impossible futures that require convergence of many unlikely scenarios. A global pandemic on the scale of COVID-19, with global office shutdowns, was viewed as impossible by many people. It was also impossible to imagine that so many businesses could be so productive so quickly without physical offices. These types of impossible futures involve the convergence of so many factors that it is sometimes unclear how they could have occurred, even after they happen.
Impossible futures that break the accepted rules of reality. The rapid development of a vaccine for the new and deadly COVID-19 was viewed by many as impossible because it required so much information sharing among competing companies and such novel approaches to development. The accepted rules of reality for vaccine development suggested that rapid development of an effective vaccine could not happen, but it did.
Impossible futures that depend on alien concepts. Development of an mRNA vaccine (where a copy of a molecule called messenger RNA is used to produce an immune response), was unheard of in most circles. Dr. Katalin Kariko’s dedicated and unorthodox research into mRNA laid the groundwork that led to the development of the vaccine.8 Futures based on alien concepts are the most unpredictable, the true wild cards. They don’t fit any of our frames of understanding.
Impossible futures are not easy to categorize, and combinations of the four types are likely, as is apparent in the examples already presented. Consider a few other recent examples of heretofore impossible futures: your personal smartphone now has what used to be called “supercomputer” power. We now have access to fast, low-cost, and complete sequencing of DNA. We have increasingly good and increasingly cheap ways of being there without being there. Office shock has the potential for impossible futures of all types—and others we have yet to imagine.
The Language of Impossible Futures
Talking about impossible futures, however, is difficult. As futurists, we have learned over the years that if you get your terms right to describe a future, the terms draw you toward that future. If you get your terms wrong, you fight that future.
For example, the “horseless carriage” was a bad term used to describe the automobile in its early stages because the automobile was so very different. “Office automation” was a bad term since it implied straightforward mechanizing what was basically human activity in offices. “Groupware” was a bad term because it was more about the group than the ware. “Reengineering” was a bad term because most organizations were never engineered in the first place. “Telecommuting” was a bad term because it implied that telecommunications would simply replace the office commute. “Artificial Intelligence” is one of the worst terms ever to describe a new technology because it implies that computers will replace humans in some simple manner—which is rarely the case. We believe that negative reactions to the term “artificial intelligence” slowed the acceptance of symbolic computing dramatically. The term “augmented intelligence,” would have been much more accurate and would have speeded acceptance.
“World Wide Web” is a great term because it reflects global connectivity. “Internet” is a great term because it emphasizes communications across networks. “Metaverse” is an even better term, since it stretches our imaginations into fully blended realities. Unfortunately, corporations often attempt to own such visionary terms, even though that (fortunately) will be impossible.
The way to prepare for impossible futures is to create stories about them, with accurate and compelling language that stretches our collective imagination.9
The UN Global Goals Are a Good Start
Good stories about better futures for living and working also benefit from guideposts along the route toward an achievable future. In looking for stories of better futures, the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals provide a strong framework. The SDGs are a thoughtful and international “blueprint to achieve a better and more sustainable future for all.” As defined by the UN Global Compact (UNGC) and adopted by the UN General Assembly in 2015, this collection of seventeen interlinked global goals is accompanied by detailed descriptions, with specific targets to measure progress.10
Sustainable Development Goals help to inspire stories of aspirational, not utopian, futures. They are interdependent, not independent, and require pathways for systemic change. For example, Quality Education, Good Health and Well-Being will enable a future with no poverty and zero Hunger. Gender Equality will increase diversity and inclusiveness. Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure will use Affordable and Clean Energy to fuel Decent Work and Economic Growth. Responsible Consumption and Production will use Clean Water and Sanitation to support Sustainable Cities and Communities. Climate Actions for the planet will ensure Life on Land and will be sustainable along with the essential Life below Water.
As Ban Ki-Moon, Secretary General of the United Nations from 2007 to 2016 has said, the Sustainable Development Goals form an agenda that is:
A universal, integrated, and transformative vision for a better world. It is an agenda for people to end poverty in all its forms. An agenda for the planet, our common home. An agenda for shared prosperity, peace, and partnership. It conveys the urgency of climate action. It is rooted in gender equality and respect for the rights of all. Above all, it pledges to leave no one behind.11
These heretofore impossible futures could become possible through working in global partnerships to do things that have never been done before. Governments, organizations, and individuals have pledged to work toward the future described by the UN global goals. Despite the shared intentions, these futures still appear impossible. However, as Philip Alston, former UN Rapporteur on Extreme Poverty and Human Rights, writes, “The SDGs should not be abandoned but . . . business as usual should not be an option.” We agree that recalibrating, not scrapping, the Sustainable Development Goals will be an important part of co-creating a new story of better futures.
Heretofore Impossible Offices
In part II, we will start each chapter with an aspirational scenario for offices, thinking futureback from about ten years ahead. Some of these scenarios will appear impossible now, but office shock will shake the constraints and open new opportunities. As you stretch your thinking about what might become possible for future offices, consider these questions:
Purpose: Why do you have an office at all?
Imagine a world in which purpose will be expressed in office buildings, workspaces, and how organizations do their work. Money will remain an important part of this spectrum to fulfill personal and family needs (particularly until you reach basic levels of safety and sustenance), but the higher ground will be meaningful work. Creating a sense of individual and shared purpose in work environments will lead to increased meaning for individuals and increased value for organizations. Intentions will be clear.
Outcomes: What results are you seeking from your office?
Imagine a world in which the outcomes of offices and officing generate both personal financial return and social value. Shareholder value will balance better with the larger community of stakeholders who are touched by the actions of an organization. Traditional tensions between individual gain and common good will be organized around social assets and shared value. The mistrust of institutions will be replaced by an expectation of continuous change and achievable futures that were considered impossible in earlier days.
The polarizing categories of economic thought will be replaced by new ways to work together to create prosperity that are yet to be described well. Organizations will provide vital bridges between living and working, generating social assets, and improving prosperity for the community. Individuals, stakeholders, and the community will have a better chance to thrive because opportunities for success will increase.
Impacts: What will be the climate impacts of your office activities?
Imagine a world in which people will respond to the urgent concerns about climate futures by focusing directly on smarter choices. Most consumables will be sustainable, transported with much greater efficiency. In some areas, the banning of all fossil-fuel-powered vehicles will provide the impetus for water and air purification. A state of symbiosis with no degradation of the environment will be achievable.
At a global level, we will balance production and consumption, revolutionizing the throwaway society of the previous generations. Companies will lead the way in circular design on a global scale. Circular design will reduce material use, redesign materials to be less resource intensive, and recapture waste as a resource to manufacture new materials and products. Organizations will develop new technologies to power sustainable solutions. Individuals will lead the way in monitoring and ensuring circularity with access to real-time data related to the life cycle of their products.
Worldwide cooperation will win out, after many struggles, and the planet will be on a path to regeneration. Most people around the world will know their carbon allotment and use AI to keep on track toward their goals. Individuals will be prepared to relinquish some privacy to create a better world for all. Throughout the journey to this new state of symbiosis, the UN Sustainable Development Goals will help to guide countries, companies, and individuals toward sustainable solutions. PPP—People Planet Prosperity—summarizes the overall clarity of direction of change, and it will work.
Belonging: With whom do you want to office?
Imagine a world in which diversity is expected and rewarded as the standard. Credible edgy people with all kinds of backgrounds and aspirations will be valued for their innovation. Trust will be high and expressed in rituals that embody organizational culture and purpose—in person and in virtual worlds.
Where traditional diversity programs sought only to bring outliers into the established order of offices, more advanced programs will create spaces that support all differences—not just people categorized as “other.” Those who win in this world will be those who can present their difference as a value-added value to support the organization’s purpose. Embracing varied cultures and thinking styles will be an everyday skill for everyone in this liquid world of mixing and matching. The most successful people will celebrate their roots and routes.
Amplified Intelligence: How will humans be augmented in the office?
Imagine a world in which humans and computers work together to extend human intelligence and enhance work. Some dangers will intensify as computing becomes more intelligent, but so will the opportunities. Computers will replace humans for specific kinds of work, but the bigger story will be about humans and computers working together to do things that have never been done before. Offices and officing will be augmented, and futureback thinking will be amplified and enhanced.
All of us will be digitally augmented in some way, with more potential for good than harm. Everyone will be amplified, some people truly enhanced. Most of us will be cyborgs—and that will be a good thing, most of the time. Even as people become increasingly augmented, the opportunities to highlight their distinct talents and contributions will increase.
Place and Time: How might virtual officing be better than being there?
Imagine a world in which you can go somewhere better, be something better, manage time better, and make something better—all without ever leaving your preferred physical location. Realities will be blended and digitally enhanced, making it easy to move between in-person and virtual experiences. In this world, we will always be online and enhanced, unless we choose to be offline in the (original in-person) real world.
By 2033, we will remember the original metaverse by its clunky virtual reality headsets. As our avatars walk alive in the future, graceful digital media interfaces will filter, clarify, and amplify our in-person experiences. We will converse with our AI companions, co-creating augmented identities.
The officeverse will emerge as a nested network of networks, not owned or controlled by anyone or any company. In the officeverse, mules will stampede. There will be a continuous carnival of wildly varied offerings, and there also will be many places focused on work. While many people still go to the officeverse to escape, many more will go there to get things done.
While in the early days, the goal of virtual meetings was to simulate in-person meetings, the new mantra will be better than being there. In-person meetings will be even more important than before for deeply human experiences, but the range of officeverse meetings and experiences will make impossible ways of working possible. There are many limitations to office buildings and in-person meetings. The officeverse will be a multisensory alternative virtual world that blends with and extends the physical world. Extending the physical world to anytime/anyplace is a key ingredient to creating the agile and resilient office, allowing the most qualified knowledge worker to be the decision maker regardless of hierarchical authority.
Agility: How can you coordinate with clarity—but not certainty?
Imagine a world in which agility and resilience will be prioritized over efficiency. Command-and-control will yield to clarity of intent, with leaders who are very clear about where they want to go but very flexible about how their teams of teams might get there. Everyone will have license to act freely within the envelope of clarity provided by top leadership and organizational purpose. Distributed authority hierarchies will come and go based on who is in the best position to make which decision at what time. Scenarios, simulation, and gaming will be used constantly to practice in low-risk ways for the highly uncertain future.
Economies of scale (where bigger is almost always better) will yield to economies of organization. You will be what you organize.
The Office Shock Mixing Board
To organize for the future of work, you will need to harmonize a range of choices regarding where, when, and how you work. We use a music mixing board metaphor to provide you with a framework for choice making. The mixing board will help you think futureback about your choices for offices, officing, and the officeverse.12
The big mistake here is to focus only on when to go back to the office or how to create hybrid offices.
Choices about where, when, and how we work are very complex. There are no simple solutions.
Based on our forecasts, there are Seven Spectrums of Choice to consider, and they begin with a careful assessment of your purpose and the outcomes you are seeking from offices and officing. Part II will give you a framework for choice making, with one chapter for each of the Seven Spectrums of Choice.
We drew inspiration from the world of music because we need more harmony in the world. Used during a performance or a recording, a mixing board is a panel for adjusting and combining musical sounds. A mixing board is a mechanism to blend the sounds of various instruments, across the channels for each instrument. The sliders on a mixing board can be moved up and down, allowing musicians and producers to make choices about the sounds of each channel. Most importantly, the mixing board provides a powerful place to combine individual choices to create collective, synchronized sounds.
FIGURE 7: The Office Shock Mixing Board. Each chapter in part II illustrates a spectrum of choice for navigating office shock.
As illustrated in figure 7, our mixing board aims to help you harmonize your choices of offices and officing, and to synchronize with others. In this way, the mixing board metaphor aims to guide a jazz-like dialogue as you seek to create with others a better future for offices and officing.13
The choices across the spectrums are not binary, either/or choices. There is a full spectrum of possibilities between the polarities. The mixing board provides a way to help you see and think through your choices—and the implications of your choices for others.
Your Choices to Navigate Office Shock
As you think about your own personal story across the Seven Spectrums of Choice, consider the following:
1. Imagine a world where you and your organization are empowered to make the future a better place. What might that impossible future look like and feel like to you?
2. Create a story about the kind of future workplace in which you would want to work and live. For example, your story could answer these questions:
What is your purpose in working in this office?
What outcomes will you aim to accomplish?
Do you have any concerns about climate change?
Who would be your ideal coworkers?
How would you like technology to enhance your abilities?
Where, when, and how often do you want to work?
How would you increase your ability to be agile and resilient?
3. What could you do now to be ready for this future?
