Appendix B

Expert Elicitation Worksheet

INSTRUCTIONS:

For each quantity below, please provide the following four estimates:

1. What do you think the minimum value could practically be?
2. What do you think the maximum value could practically be?
3. Realistically, what is the most likely value?
4. How confident are you the interval you created will capture the true value? Please enter a number between 50% and 100%.

What is the length of the U.S. coastline, including Alaska and Hawaii and all territories (in miles)?

1. Practical Maximum: ________________ miles
2. Practical Minimum: ________________ miles
3. Most Likely Value: _______________ miles
4. Confidence: ______% (Please enter a number between 50% and 100%.)

What was the total number of vehicles crossing the United States/Mexico border in 2010?

1. Practical Maximum: _____________ vehicles
2. Practical Minimum: _____________ vehicles
3. Most Likely Value: _____________ vehicles
4. Confidence: ______% (Please enter a number between 50% and 100%.)

What was the number of tons of commodities carried by vessels that flowed through ports in Louisiana in 2007?

1. Practical Maximum: ______________ tons
2. Practical Minimum: ______________ tons
3. Most Likely Value: ______________ tons
4. Confidence: ______% (Please enter a number between 50% and 100%.)

What are the odds that a person living in the United States will be struck by lightning in his or her lifetime?

1. Practical Maximum: one in ________________
2. Practical Minimum: one in ________________
3. Most Likely Value: one in ________________
4. Confidence: ______% (Please enter a number between 50% and 100%.)

Expert Elicitation Worksheet

INSTRUCTIONS:

For each quantity below, please provide the following three estimates:

1. I am 90% confident the true value will be less than ________.
2. I am 90% confident the true value will be greater than ________.
3. Realistically, the most likely value is ________.

What is the water surface area of the Great Lakes (includes Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario) (in square miles)?

1. I am 90% confident the true value will be less than ___________ square miles.
2. I am 90% confident the true value will be greater than ___________ square miles.
3. I estimate the most likely value is ___________ square miles.

What was the average monthly number of passengers flying domestically in the United States in 2010?

1. I am 90% confident the true value will be less than ___________ passengers.
2. I am 90% confident the true value will be greater than ___________ passengers.
3. I estimate the most likely value is ___________ passengers.

What is the total passenger operating revenue (in $U.S.) for ferryboats operating in the United States in 2009 (excluding international, rural, rural interstate, and urban park ferries)?

1. I am 90% confident the true value will be less than ___________ $U.S.
2. I am 90% confident the true value will be greater than ___________ $U.S.
3. I estimate the most likely value is ___________ $U.S.

What is the probability of getting a straight flush in five-card poker?
(For example, 2♣, 3♣, 4♣, 5♣, 6♣ is a straight flush.)

1. I am 90% confident the true value will be less than ___________.
2. I am 90% confident the true value will be greater than ___________.
3. I estimate the most likely value is ___________.