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by Paul S. Szwed
Expert Judgment in Project Management: Narrowing the Theory-Practice Gap
Cover Page
Title Page
Copyright Page
Table of Contents
List of Figures
List of Tables
Acknowledgments
Executive Summary
1. Introduction
1.1. Background
1.2. Problem Statement
1.3. Objectives and Scope
1.4. Methodology
1.4.1. Phase 1
1.4.2. Phase 2
1.4.3. Phase 3
1.5. Data Analysis
1.6. Organization of Report
2. State of the Art/Science
2.1. Theory-Practice Gap
2.2. Method
2.3. Data and Sample
2.4. Analysis and Results
2.4.1. Planning the Elicitation
2.4.2. Selecting the Experts
2.4.3. Training Experts
2.4.4. Eliciting Judgments
2.4.5. Analyzing and Aggregating Judgments
2.5. Findings and Implications
3. State of the Practice
3.1. Method
3.2. Data and Sample
3.3. Analysis and Results
3.4. Limitations
3.4.1. Population
3.4.2. Sample Randomness
3.4.3. Sample Size
3.4.4. Self-Reported Data
3.4.5. Scope of Study
3.5. Findings and Implications
4. Closing the Gap
4.1. Critical Thinking Experiment
4.1.1. Participants
4.1.2. Protocol
4.1.3. Method
4.1.4. Results
4.2. Numeracy and Fluency Experiment
4.2.1. Participants
4.2.2. Protocol
4.2.3. Method
4.2.4. Results
4.3. Findings and Implications
5. Discussion
5.1. Summary
5.2. Key Findings
5.2.1. State of the Art/Science is Established and Growing
5.2.2. State of the Practice in Project Management is Informal and Emergent
5.2.3. Expert Judgment Elicitation in Project Management can Mature
5.3. Suggested Practices
5.3.1. Use a Generic Process
5.3.2. Frame the Problem
5.3.3. Plan the Elicitation
5.3.4. Select Experts
5.3.5. Train Experts
5.3.6. Elicit Judgments Using Appropriate Methods
5.3.7. Analyze Judgments and Combine (If Desired)
5.3.8. Document Results and Communicate
Appendix A
Appendix B
Appendix C
References
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