SUGGESTIONS FOR FINDING THE FACTS

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The following sources of fact-based data have always helped me in making decisions about politics and policy. I believe they will help you, too. To begin with, wherever possible, I suggest that you follow the money. In many criminal investigations, the facts behind the crime are discovered by following the money trail. In government, the best unfiltered resources for such investigation include the following:

•    Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

The BLS is part of the US Department of Labor. Staffed by Fourth Branch experts, it offers online data about the economic lifeblood of our democracy. Go to https://www.bls.gov/data/ to access. Pundits and politicians most frequently distort the facts about inflation and employment. You can find the real numbers using the CPI Inflation Calculator (https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm); employment data is at Current Population Survey (https://www.bls.gov/cps/tables.htm) and https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000.

•    Congressional Budget Office (CBO)

The CBO produces independent, nonpartisan analyses of budgetary and economic issues. Go to https://www.cbo.gov. See “Budget and Economic Outlook and Updates” (https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/RecurringReports#1) for informed projections of economic and budget outcomes. Go to “Analysis of the President’s Budget” (https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/RecurringReports#30) for a nonpartisan Fourth Branch estimate of the impact of the president’s proposed annual budget. For a look at the future, try “Long-Term Budget Outlook” (https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/RecurringReports#2).

•    Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Economic Research (FRED)

FRED (https://research.stlouisfed.org) is an independent, nonpartisan treasure trove of economic data and research. When politicians or pundits talk about the performance of the economy, get the actual numbers at “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers” (https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CPIAUCSL), “Real Gross Domestic Product” (https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDPC1), and “Total Public Debt as % of GDP” (https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GFDEGDQ188S). This last one is especially important because most modern economists believe that the ratio of debt to GDP is the crucial indicator of a nation’s economic health.

•    Office of Management and Budget (OMB)

The OMB assembles the annual budget request that the president sends to Congress. For an eye-opener, look at Historical Tables, “Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits: 17892021” (https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals).

•    OpenSecrets

The website of the Center for Responsive Politics, OpenSecrets (https://www.opensecrets.org) presents interactive data on politicians, elections, influence, and lobbying.

•    US Census Bureau

Along with the BLS, the Census Bureau (www.census.gov) compiles data on all aspects of the US population.

Going to the websites of both the BLS and Census Bureau will tell you a great deal about yourself and your fellow Americans. For additional insight, consult the many available public opinion polls and rankings. I find that the following are the most informative, objective, and reliable:

•    FiveThirtyEight

This website (www.fivethirtyeight.com) averages the data in many national polls from different polling organizations to create composite snapshots of opinion in many fields, with special emphasis on politics and economics.

•    Gallup

Long considered the gold standard of political polling, Gallup is especially valuable for its “Presidential Approval Ratings—Gallup Historical Statistics and Trends” (https://www.news.gallup.com/poll/116677/Presidential-Approval-Ratings-Gallup-Historical-Statistics-Trends.aspx) and economics-related polls (https://www.gallup.com/topic/economy.aspx).

•    Pew Research Center

Pew (https://www.pewresearch.org/) is a highly reliable source of public opinion data, especially in the realm of politics (https://www.people-press.org/), where its researchers’ questions go beyond the typical Who-are-you-voting-for-and-why? variety.

If you are interested in learning more about the Fourth Branch specifically as well as the “big government” versus “small government” debate, you will find the following valuable:

Conn, Steven, ed. To Promote the General Welfare: The Case for Big Government. New York: Oxford University Press, 2012. The subtitle of this collection of essays explains just what this book sets out to do—make the case for the value of “big government.”

Waldo, Dwight. The Administrative State: A Study of the Political Theory of American Public Administration, 2nd ed. New York: Holmes & Meier, 1984. This is a classic study of US “public administration”—the administrative bureaucracy—and how it differs from both elected government and private sector administration.

Williams, Walter E. American Contempt for Liberty. Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, 2015. This collection of articles by a Libertarian economist who is Distinguished Professor of Economics at George Mason University makes the case for small (as in minimal) government as envisioned (Williams argues) by the framers of the Constitution.

Wilson, James Q. Bureaucracy: What Government Agencies Do and Why They Do It. New York: Basic Books, 1989. A dated but still informative study of American bureaucracy.