Chapter 5. Bayesian Regression Models

In the previous chapter, we covered the theory of Bayesian linear regression in some detail. In this chapter, we will take a sample problem and illustrate how it can be applied to practical situations. For this purpose, we will use the generalized linear model (GLM) packages in R. Firstly, we will give a brief introduction to the concept of GLM to the readers.

Generalized linear regression

Recall that in linear regression, we assume the following functional form between the dependent variable Y and independent variable X:

Generalized linear regression

Here, Generalized linear regression is a set of basis functions and Generalized linear regression is the parameter vector. Usually, it is assumed that Generalized linear regression, so Generalized linear regression represents an intercept or a bias term. Also, it is assumed that Generalized linear regression is a noise term distributed according to the normal distribution with mean zero and variance Generalized linear regression. We also showed that this results in the following equation:

Generalized linear regression

One can generalize the preceding equation to incorporate not only the normal distribution for noise but any distribution in the exponential family (reference 1 in the References section of this chapter). This is done by defining the following equation:

Generalized linear regression

Here, g is called a link function. The well-known models, such as logistic regression, log-linear models, Poisson regression, and so on, are special cases of GLM. For example, in the case of ordinary linear regression, the link function would be Generalized linear regression. For logistic regression, it is Generalized linear regression, which is the inverse of the logistic function, and for Poisson regression, it is Generalized linear regression.

In the Bayesian formulation of GLMs, unlike ordinary linear regression, there are no closed-form analytical solutions. One needs to specify prior probabilities for the regression coefficients. Then, their posterior probabilities are typically obtained through Monte Carlo simulations.

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