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by H. R. Noel Van Erp, Genserik L. L. Reniers
Operational Safety Economics
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Preface
Disclaimer
Acknowledgements
List of Acronyms
Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1 The “Why” of Operational Safety
1.2 Back to the Future: the Economics of Operational Safety
1.3 Difficulties in Operational Safety Economics
1.4 The Field of Operational Safety within the Profitability of an Organization
1.5 Conclusions
References
Chapter 2: Operational Risk, Operational Safety, and Economics
2.1 Defining the Concept of Operational Risk
2.2 Dealing with Operational Risks
2.3 Types of Operational Risk
2.4 The Importance of Operational Safety Economics for a Company
2.5 Balancing between Productivity and Safety
2.6 The Safety Equilibrium Situation or “HRO Safety”
2.7 The Egg Aggregated Model (TEAM) of Safety Culture
2.8 Safety Futures
2.9 The Controversy of Economic Analyses
2.10 Scientific Requirements for Adequate Economic Assessment Techniques
2.11 Four Categories of Data
2.12 Improving Decision-making Processes for Investing in Safety
2.13 Conclusions
References
Chapter 3: Economic Foundations
3.1 Macroeconomics and Microeconomics
3.2 Safety Demand and Long-term Average Cost of Production
3.3 Safety Value Function
3.4 Expected Value Theory, Value at Risk, and Safety Attitude
3.5 Safety Utilities
3.6 Measuring Safety Utility Functions
3.7 Preferences of Safety Management – Safety Indifference Curves
3.8 Measuring Safety Indifference Curves
3.9 Budget Constraint and n-Dimensional Maximization Problem Formulation
3.10 Determining Optimal Safety Management Preferences within the Budget Constraint for a Two-dimensional Problem
3.11 Conclusions
References
Chapter 4: Operational Safety Decision-making and Economics
4.1 Economic Theories and Safety Decisions
4.2 Making Decisions to Deal with Operational Safety
4.3 Safety Investment Decision-making – a Question of Costs and Benefits
4.4 The Degree of Safety and the Minimum Overall Cost Point
4.5 The Type I and Type II Accident Pyramids
4.6 Quick Calculation of Type I Accident Costs
4.7 Quick Calculation of Type II Accident Costs
4.8 Costs and Benefits and the Different Types of Risk
4.9 Marginal Safety Utility and Decision-making
4.10 Risk Acceptability, Risk Criteria, and Risk Comparison – Moral Aspects and Value of (Un)safety and Value of Human Life
4.11 Safety Investment Decision-making for the Different Types of Risk
4.12 Conclusions
References
Chapter 5: Cost-Benefit Analysis
5.1 An Introduction to Cost-Benefit Analysis
5.2 Economic Concepts Related to Cost-Benefit Analyses
5.3 Calculating Costs
5.4 Calculating Benefits (Avoided Accident Costs)
5.5 The Cost of Carrying Out Cost-Benefit Analyses
5.6 Cost-Benefit Analysis for Type I Safety Investments
5.7 Cost-Benefit Analysis for Type II Safety Investments
5.8 Advantages and Disadvantages of Analyses Based on Costs and Benefits
5.9 Conclusions
References
Chapter 6: Cost-effectiveness Analysis
6.1 An Introduction to Cost-effectiveness Analysis
6.2 Cost-effectiveness Ratio
6.3 Cost-effectiveness Analysis Using Constraints
6.4 User-friendly Approach for Cost-effectiveness Analysis under Budget Constraint
6.5 Cost-effectiveness Calculation Often Used in Industry
6.6 Cost–Utility Analysis
6.7 Conclusions
References
Chapter 7: Beyond the State-of the Art of Operational Safety Economics: Bayesian Decision Theory
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Bayesian Decision Theory
7.3 The Allais Paradox
7.4 The Ellsberg Paradox
7.5 The Difference in Riskiness Between Type I and Type II Events
7.6 Discussion
7.7 Conclusions
References
Chapter 8: Making State-of-the-Art Economic Thinking Part of Safety Decision-making
8.1 The Decision-making Process for an Economic Analysis
8.2 Application of Cost-Benefit Analysis to Type I Risks
8.3 Decision Analysis Tree Approach
8.4 Safety Value Function Approach
8.5 Multi-attribute Utility Approach
8.6 The Borda Algorithm Approach
8.7 Bayesian Networks in Relation to Operational Safety Economics
8.8 Limited Memory Influence Diagram (LIMID) Approach
8.9 Monte Carlo Simulation for Operational Safety Economics
8.10 Multi-criteria Analysis (MCA) in Relation to Operational Safety Economics
8.11 Game Theory Considerations in Relation to Operational Safety Economics
8.12 Proving the Usefulness of a Disproportion Factor (DF) for Type II Risks: an Illustrative (Toy) Problem
8.13 Decision Process for Carrying Out an Economic Analysis with Respect to Operational Safety
8.14 Conclusions
References
Chapter 9: General Conclusions
Index
End User License Agreement
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Prev
Previous Chapter
Cover
Next
Next Chapter
Title Page
Table of Contents
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Preface
Disclaimer
Acknowledgements
List of Acronyms
Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1 The “Why” of Operational Safety
1.2 Back to the Future: the Economics of Operational Safety
1.3 Difficulties in Operational Safety Economics
1.4 The Field of Operational Safety within the Profitability of an Organization
1.5 Conclusions
References
Chapter 2: Operational Risk, Operational Safety, and Economics
2.1 Defining the Concept of Operational Risk
2.2 Dealing with Operational Risks
2.3 Types of Operational Risk
2.4 The Importance of Operational Safety Economics for a Company
2.5 Balancing between Productivity and Safety
2.6 The Safety Equilibrium Situation or “HRO Safety”
2.7 The Egg Aggregated Model (TEAM) of Safety Culture
2.8 Safety Futures
2.9 The Controversy of Economic Analyses
2.10 Scientific Requirements for Adequate Economic Assessment Techniques
2.11 Four Categories of Data
2.12 Improving Decision-making Processes for Investing in Safety
2.13 Conclusions
References
Chapter 3: Economic Foundations
3.1 Macroeconomics and Microeconomics
3.2 Safety Demand and Long-term Average Cost of Production
3.3 Safety Value Function
3.4 Expected Value Theory, Value at Risk, and Safety Attitude
3.5 Safety Utilities
3.6 Measuring Safety Utility Functions
3.7 Preferences of Safety Management – Safety Indifference Curves
3.8 Measuring Safety Indifference Curves
3.9 Budget Constraint and
n
-Dimensional Maximization Problem Formulation
3.10 Determining Optimal Safety Management Preferences within the Budget Constraint for a Two-dimensional Problem
3.11 Conclusions
References
Chapter 4: Operational Safety Decision-making and Economics
4.1 Economic Theories and Safety Decisions
4.2 Making Decisions to Deal with Operational Safety
4.3 Safety Investment Decision-making – a Question of Costs and Benefits
4.4 The Degree of Safety and the Minimum Overall Cost Point
4.5 The Type I and Type II Accident Pyramids
4.6 Quick Calculation of Type I Accident Costs
4.7 Quick Calculation of Type II Accident Costs
4.8 Costs and Benefits and the Different Types of Risk
4.9 Marginal Safety Utility and Decision-making
4.10 Risk Acceptability, Risk Criteria, and Risk Comparison – Moral Aspects and Value of (Un)safety and Value of Human Life
4.11 Safety Investment Decision-making for the Different Types of Risk
4.12 Conclusions
References
Chapter 5: Cost-Benefit Analysis
5.1 An Introduction to Cost-Benefit Analysis
5.2 Economic Concepts Related to Cost-Benefit Analyses
5.3 Calculating Costs
5.4 Calculating Benefits (Avoided Accident Costs)
5.5 The Cost of Carrying Out Cost-Benefit Analyses
5.6 Cost-Benefit Analysis for Type I Safety Investments
5.7 Cost-Benefit Analysis for Type II Safety Investments
5.8 Advantages and Disadvantages of Analyses Based on Costs and Benefits
5.9 Conclusions
References
Chapter 6: Cost-effectiveness Analysis
6.1 An Introduction to Cost-effectiveness Analysis
6.2 Cost-effectiveness Ratio
6.3 Cost-effectiveness Analysis Using Constraints
6.4 User-friendly Approach for Cost-effectiveness Analysis under Budget Constraint
6.5 Cost-effectiveness Calculation Often Used in Industry
6.6 Cost–Utility Analysis
6.7 Conclusions
References
Chapter 7: Beyond the State-of the Art of Operational Safety Economics: Bayesian Decision Theory
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Bayesian Decision Theory
7.3 The Allais Paradox
7.4 The Ellsberg Paradox
7.5 The Difference in Riskiness Between Type I and Type II Events
7.6 Discussion
7.7 Conclusions
References
Chapter 8: Making State-of-the-Art Economic Thinking Part of Safety Decision-making
8.1 The Decision-making Process for an Economic Analysis
8.2 Application of Cost-Benefit Analysis to Type I Risks
8.3 Decision Analysis Tree Approach
8.4 Safety Value Function Approach
8.5 Multi-attribute Utility Approach
8.6 The Borda Algorithm Approach
8.7 Bayesian Networks in Relation to Operational Safety Economics
8.8 Limited Memory Influence Diagram (LIMID) Approach
8.9 Monte Carlo Simulation for Operational Safety Economics
8.10 Multi-criteria Analysis (MCA) in Relation to Operational Safety Economics
8.11 Game Theory Considerations in Relation to Operational Safety Economics
8.12 Proving the Usefulness of a Disproportion Factor (DF) for Type II Risks: an Illustrative (Toy) Problem
8.13 Decision Process for Carrying Out an Economic Analysis with Respect to Operational Safety
8.14 Conclusions
References
Chapter 9: General Conclusions
Index
End User License Agreement
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Guide
Cover
Table of Contents
Preface
Begin Reading
List of Illustrations
Chapter 1: Introduction
Figure 1.1 The position of operational risks within the mind of the manager.
Chapter 2: Operational Risk, Operational Safety, and Economics
Figure 2.1 The operational risk management set.
Figure 2.2 Number of events as a function of the events' frequencies (qualitative figure).
Figure 2.3 Risk type matrix based on variability and information availability.
Figure 2.4 Uncertainties and variability in economic decision-making on risks.
Figure 2.5 Illustrative example of matrix for determining the operational risk type and the area.
Figure 2.6 Economic consequences of health and safety investments.
Figure 2.7 “Absolute safety” versus “AS IS safety” and the safety equilibrium situation.
Figure 2.8 Company fluctuating safety level (to be drawn for type I and type II risks separately).
Figure 2.9 The Egg Aggregated Model of safety culture (Vierendeels
et al
. [12]).
Chapter 3: Economic Foundations
Figure 3.1 An illustrative safety demand curve.
Figure 3.2 Long-term average costs of production (LAC) for the illustrative example of companies A and B.
Figure 3.3 An illustrative safety value function.
Figure 3.4 A rating scale example.
Figure 3.5 An illustrative example of a decision analysis tree for calculating the expected value.
Figure 3.6 Safety utility functions (risk-averse, risk-neutral, and risk-seeking).
Figure 3.7 Relationship between expected value and expected utility.
Figure 3.8 Indifference curves or iso-utility curves in a safety commodity space.
Figure 3.9 Choice between two safety commodity bundles.
Figure 3.10 Determining the points belonging to an indifference curve versus measure X: (a) method 1; (b) method 2.
Figure 3.11 Budget constraint and indifference curves.
Figure 3.12 (a) Effect of decreasing the safety budget on the maximization problem. (b) Effect of increasing
(price of
) on the maximization problem.
Figure 3.13 Determining the optimum safety commodity bundle within the budget constraint.
Chapter 4: Operational Safety Decision-making and Economics
Figure 4.1 Utility function of prospect theory.
Figure 4.2 Utility function for gains (risk-averse behavior).
Figure 4.3 The utility function curve.
Figure 4.4 Five principles of design-based safety implemented in the chemical industry.
Figure 4.5 Risk treatment options visualized while employing definition (i) for the Maxmax hypothetical benefits.
Figure 4.6 Safety increase premium determination.
Figure 4.7 Analogy between total accident costs and hypothetical benefits.
Figure 4.8 Prevention costs and accident costs as a function of the degree of safety (qualitative figure).
Figure 4.9 Conventional cost-benefit analysis for determining the tolerable accident level in quality management.
Figure 4.10 Conventional cost-benefit analysis (Figure 4.9 redrawn) showing zero accidents as not the optimum case.
Figure 4.11 Conventional cost-benefit analysis showing zero accidents as the optimum case.
Figure 4.12 The Bird accident pyramid (“Egyptian”).
Figure 4.13 Mayan accident pyramid shape.
Figure 4.14 The Bird accident pyramid with costs per type of accident.
Figure 4.15 Economic break-even safety points for the different types of risk (qualitative figure).
Figure 4.16 Law of diminishing marginal rate of return on investment for technological safety measures.
Figure 4.17 Allocation strategy for the safety budget.
Figure 4.18 The “as low as reasonably practicable” (ALARP) principle and its relationship with the terms “
intolerable
,” “
tolerable
,” “
acceptable
,” and “
negligible
.”
Figure 4.19 The “as low as reasonably practicable” (ALARP) principle and the effect of risk reduction represented in the risk matrix.
Figure 4.20 Example of iso-risk curves showing the distribution of location-based (individual) risk surrounding an enterprise.
Figure 4.21 Illustrative example of an FN curve.
Figure 4.22 The risk thermostat model applied to organizations.
Figure 4.23 Safety investment (to deal with the risk) per unit of risk, in the case of a fixed safety budget.
Figure 4.24 Willingness to accept (WTA) and willingness to pay (WTP) (no restrictions to the monetary possibilities imposed).
Figure 4.25 Lost time injury frequency rate (LTIFR) of an enterprise in terms of its degree of reactive safety.
Figure 4.26 Example of a plotted FN curve.
Figure 4.27 Useful data in an FN curve.
Figure 4.28 Acceptability model developed.
Figure 4.29 Structure of the model developed for the rail industry.
Figure 4.30 Second-order factor structure of the societal acceptability of risks.
Figure 4.31 Scoring system for disproportion factor (DF), taking societal acceptability of risks into account: layout of the factors in the Excel file.
Figure 4.32 Example of factor F
III
and its corresponding weight factor WF
III
.
Chapter 5: Cost-Benefit Analysis
Figure 5.1 Cost-benefit analysis process for safety investments.
Figure 5.2 Insured and uninsured costs.
Figure 5.3 Disproportion factor (DF). ALARP, as low as reasonably practicable; B.A., broadly acceptable.
Figure 5.4 General schema of the decision model for evaluating safety investments based on the disproportion factor (DF).
Figure 5.5 DF
0
[the disproportion factor (DF) that makes the net present value (NPV) equal to zero] associated with alternative safety investments, while evaluating different accident scenarios.
Figure 5.6 Net present value (NPV) and disproportion factor (DF) associated with different accident scenarios.
Figure 5.7 Relationship between the probability of an accident and the DF
0
[the disproportion factor (DF) that makes the net present value equal to zero] associated with different scenarios.
Figure 5.8 Relationship between DF
0
[the disproportion factor (DF) that makes the net present value equal to zero] and the yearly recurring costs for different time horizons.
Figure 5.9 Relationship between the disproportion factor (DF) and the asset life for different maintenance costs.
Figure 5.10 Relationship between DF
0
[the disproportion factor (DF) that makes the net present value equal to zero] and the discount factor: (a) for different time horizons; (b) for different yearly recurrent costs.
Figure 5.11 Relationship between DF
0
[the disproportion factor (DF) that makes the net present value equal to zero] and the risk factor for different accident scenarios. (a) Potential benefits equal to €2 million; (b) potential benefits equal to €5 million.
Chapter 6: Cost-effectiveness Analysis
Figure 6.1 Graphical representation of safety costs and effectiveness of different safety investment options. SIO, safety investment option; LTI, lost time injury.
Figure 6.2 Discretization of the risk matrix (for explaining the approach of the cost-effectiveness analysis with budget constraint).
Chapter 7: Beyond the State-of the Art of Operational Safety Economics: Bayesian Decision Theory
Figure 7.1 Risk ratios as a function of the severity variable
.
Chapter 8: Making State-of-the-Art Economic Thinking Part of Safety Decision-making
Figure 8.1 Basic structure of the decision-making process for an economic analysis.
Figure 8.2 Yearly cash flows associated with investment option 1.
Figure 8.3 Payback period for investment option 1.
Figure 8.4 Internal rate of return associated with investment option 1.
Figure 8.5 Payback period associated with investment option number 2.
Figure 8.6 Internal rate of return associated with investment option number 2.
Figure 8.7 Illustrative decision analysis tree for runaway reaction event.
Figure 8.8 Illustrative event pathway for domino effect prevention.
Figure 8.9 Decision analysis tree rolled back to reveal the total cost of each strategy in the domino effect prevention illustrative example.
Figure 8.10 Illustrative safety value functions for impacts on safety culture dimensions.
Figure 8.11 Event tree for an accident scenario.
Figure 8.12 Bayesian network for the accident scenario.
Figure 8.13 An extension of the Bayesian network in Figure 8.12 to account for the effect of safety barriers on the budget and risk.
Figure 8.14 The same Bayesian network as in Figure 8.13 where both SB1 and SB2 have been afforded, i.e., “install SB1 = yes” and “install SB2 = yes.” SB, safety barrier; IE, initiating event.
Figure 8.15 An extension of the Bayesian network in Figure 8.12 to account for budget variability. SB, safety barrier; IE, initiating event.
Figure 8.16 Limited memory influence diagram for cost-effective safety barrier selection.
Figure 8.17 Posterior probability distribution of initiating event (IE) in Figure 8.14.
Figure 8.18 Posterior probability distributions of safety barriers (SBs) SB1 (a) and SB2 (b) in Figure 8.14.
Figure 8.19 Posterior probability distributions of consequence (c1, c2, c3, c4) in Figure 8.14.
Figure 8.20 Multi-criteria analysis scheme.
Figure 8.21 Payoff matrix for the Prisoner's Dilemma game – an illustrative example.
Figure 8.22 Payoff matrix for the Prisoner's Dilemma game – general case.
Figure 8.23 Decision-making heuristic to decide on the economic approach/method/procedure to use (illustrative example with suggested approaches; organizations may want to draft their own heuristic). C/B, cost-benefit; BN, Bayesian network; ALARP, as low as reasonably practicable.
Figure 8.24 Concrete heuristic of the decision-making process for an economic analysis.
List of Tables
Chapter 3: Economic Foundations
Table 3.1 Quality-adjusted accident probabilities (QAAPs) for 0.1% probability over 2000 years
Chapter 4: Operational Safety Decision-making and Economics
Table 4.1 Non-exhaustive list of quantifiable and non-quantifiable socioeconomic consequences of accidents
Table 4.2 Quick calculation of the total yearly costs based on the number of “serious” type I accidents
Table 4.3 Investment with the highest cumulative expected value
Table 4.4 Proportion of respondents who opt for the production or the prevention investment
Table 4.5 Largest group of the respondents who opt for the production or the prevention investment
Table 4.6 Proportion of respondents who opt for the production or the prevention investment per gender
Table 4.7 Utility and marginal utility: an illustrative example
Table 4.8 Some “one-in-a-million” risks of dying from various activities
Table 4.9 Parameter values for scenarios “major industrial accident” and “domino effect disaster.”
Table 4.10 Some “value of statistical life” (VoSL) numbers used in different countries
Table 4.11 Illustrative example of break-even safety target (BEST) ratios related to company safety degrees
Table 4.12 Illustrative example of a data table
Table 4.13 Calculation of expectation value from the data table
Table 4.14 Useful data for estimation
Chapter 5: Cost-Benefit Analysis
Table 5.1 The implicit value of safety
Table 5.2 Costs of reducing fatal accident rates for type I and type II risks
Table 5.3 Cost categories of safety measures
Table 5.4 Taxonomy of accident costs
Table 5.5 Avoided accident cost categories
Table 5.6 Insurance characteristics
Table 5.7 Sequence of cash flows for a safety investment
Table 5.8 Features associated with a safety investment to be evaluated
Table 5.9 Features of the safety investments
Table 5.10 Possible scenarios after the risk assessment
Table 5.11 Technical and financial parameters
Table 5.12 Basic parameters setting used in the simulation
Chapter 6: Cost-effectiveness Analysis
Table 6.1 Cost-effectiveness ratios – an illustrative example
Table 6.2 Risk matrix used in this section for the purpose of this illustrative approach
Table 6.3 Required information for application of the approach
Table 6.4 Information of our illustrative example, for application of the approach
Table 6.5 Costs of prevention CoP
ij
and hypothetical benefits for the illustrative case
Table 6.6 Solution of the illustrative example from Table 6.4 and 6.5
Chapter 8: Making State-of-the-Art Economic Thinking Part of Safety Decision-making
Table 8.1 List of costs associated with safety investment option 1
Table 8.2 List of hypothetical benefits associated with safety investment option 1
Table 8.3 Initial investment and yearly benefits and costs associated with safety investment option 1
Table 8.4 List of costs associated with safety investment option 2
Table 8.5 List of hypothetical benefits associated with safety investment option 2
Table 8.6 Initial investment and yearly benefits and costs associated with safety investment option 2
Table 8.7 A constructed scale for observable technology (illustrative)
Table 8.8 An ordinal scale representation for safety climate (illustrative)
Table 8.9 Ranking investment options for type I risks using the Borda algorithm for a four-option illustrative example
Table 8.10 Conditional probability Table of the node “consequence” in Figure 8.12
Table 8.11 Conditional probability Table of node SB1 in Figure 8.13
Table 8.13 Conditional probability Table of node budget in Figure 8.13
Table 8.12 Conditional probability Table of node SB2 in Figure 8.13
Table 8.14 Cost-risk analysis of safety barriers for the accident scenario shown in Figure 8.11
Table 8.15 Conditional probability Table of “install SB1” in Figure 8.15
Table 8.16 Conditional probability Table of “install SB2” in Figure 8.15
Table 8.17 Conditional probability Table of node “SB1” in Figure 8.16
Table 8.18 Conditional probability Table of node “SB2” in Figure 8.16
Table 8.19 Utility table of “cost” in Figure 8.16
Table 8.20 Utility table of “risk” in Figure 8.16
Table 8.21 Utility values corresponding to the values of cost in Table 8.19
Table 8.22 Utility values corresponding to the values of risk in Table 8.20
Table 8.23 Expected utility values for each decision alternative
Table 8.24 Marginal probability distribution of initiating event (IE) in Figure 8.13
Table 8.25 Conditional probability distribution of SB1 in Figure 8.13
Table 8.26 Conditional probability distribution of SB2 in Figure 8.13
Table 8.27 Description of the criteria used in the multi-criteria analysis
Table 8.28 Evaluation of the alternative investments
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