Prognoses
As they evolve into integrated RBB networks, existing access and content providers are trying to gauge their own chances of success against the competition. In nearly every major urban area of the world, there will be several providers of high-speed residential services. The possible franchise holders include service providers of DBS, MMDS, LMDS, cable, and xDSL services from the incumbent and competitive telephone companies. Later, FTTx services from the ILECs and some alternative carriers will be introduced. In addition, narrowband service will be available from the electric utility and several telephone companies. Finally, telephone service will come from telephone carriers, cellular carriers, and digital PCS.
This adds up to a dozen competitors for the combined residential voice, video, and data market in a specific area. Table 8-3 shows standards activity that demonstrates the competitive nature of access markets.
| Access Network | Voice | Data | Video |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broadcast TV | — | Datacasting | ATSC, DVB, ATVEF |
| Cable | PacketCable | DOCSIS | OpenCable DVB |
| ADSL G.Lite | Analog voice, legacy service | PPP/ATM | Switched digital video |
| Other DSLs | Voice over IP Voice over ATM | PPP/Ethernet PPP/ATM | Switched digital video |
| xMDS | Voice over IP Voice over ATM | TBD | Multichannel digital TV |
| Fiber to the Home | FSAN | FSAN | Switched digital video |
| 3G Wireless | Digital voice | TBD | — |
No Shortage of Competition
This book now offers its first bold prediction: There will be neither shortage of Access Networks nor standardization of applications. Fresh investment will continue to come from the following:
Internet service providers and their equipment suppliers
The cable industry
TV broadcasters
Wireless local loop providers
Electric utilities
Hollywood studios
Consumer electronics vendors
Supporting and joining them will be an army of start-ups well-funded by venture capital that, in turn, have billions at their disposal with the mandate to change the world.
Beyond that, predictions get harder. Experience teaches that predicting the past is difficult, but predicting the future is really hard. Nonetheless, it's tough to resist the urge.
We Can't Determine Winners Solely from the Technologies
It's often asked, which access network will win? Will cable or xDSL or broadband wireless dominate the residential market?
The view of this book is that a variety of Access Networks will persist for the reasons mentioned in this chapter and in Chapter 1, which discussed the locations of these many Access Networks. However, it can be said that success for any single company or technology will not be determined by technology characteristics. Business considerations will dominate—considerations such as staying power, flexibility and incrementalism, and how well-matched the content is to the technology. The capital outlays are too big, and there are always difficulties in calibrating consumer demand and pricing, even for well-established businesses. Persistence and deep pockets are more important in discerning winners than mere technology.
Fiber and Wireless Will Play Bigger Roles
Over time, fiber will extend farther into the neighborhoods and closer to the end user. A fiber node close to an end user benefits cable, twisted-pair, and wireless. But it benefits wireless particularly because wireless has the shortest reach at multimegabit speeds and therefore benefits most from shorter distances. Also, consumers and businesses have reacted well to wireless technologies in the past. Finally, regulators have a major incentive to encourage facilities-based bypass of the telephone company local loop. Therefore, it's possible to conclude that success in wireless telephony, broadcast TV, and satellite TV will be repeated for Access Networks and Home Networks.
There Will Be an Impact on Mass Culture
High-speed Internet access will likely have a major cultural impact. How will it play out is not clear at this early point. In one direction, residential broadband will enable wider selection of content. This has the effect of enabling the process of cocooning, by which individuals become immersed in a narrow set of interests, thereby retreating from a common mass cultural experience. Society in this case becomes narrowly segmented among groups of people who increasingly have less and less to do with each other. Whatever its flaws, mass culture does have the effect of bringing lots of people together to share an experience, even if it is just a Seinfeld episode or a Superbowl game. With thousands of TV channels, VoD, and interactive chats with video, there is the possibility that fewer people will participate in common, national experiences, a phenomenon reflected in declining network TV ratings.
On the other hand, the cultural impact may go the direction of cultural blurring. People from different cultural or national backgrounds can share their interests and uniqueness. The result is a convergence of taste, particularly among the young, to a common mass culture—one could say an Internet mass culture. The world has already experienced how the globalization of television via satellite has made American pop culture familiar around the world. This is seen as a problem to some national authorities who view American pop culture—and, therefore, the Internet—as a threat. Even some Americans think American pop culture is a bad idea.
But the point here is that residential broadband, on either a national or an international scale, can either fragment or blur cultures.
Social Issues Will Become More Contentious
Apart from its impact on mass culture, residential broadband raises other social issues:
The conflict between law enforcement and privacy— There is already controversy about whether to extend federal wiretap capabilities to digital telephony and Internet access, under the same terms that are required for analog telephony. Some Internet advocates assert that the Internet is somehow different and should be exempt from police snooping.
The conflict between public safety and freedom of expression— When Web sites provide detailed instructions on how to create bombs and spew hate messages, the public becomes concerned with whether Internet censorship takes precedence over freedom of expression. Some technical innovation can provide some protection. However, over time, those innovations, based largely on packet filtering, will spring leaks. Some nontechnical approaches may ultimately be considered by a population victimized by some excesses.
Universal service for broadband— On the other hand, the Internet has clear benefits, and those who can afford it are buying it. What about those who can't afford it? Should public policy encourage broadband access, as it has narrowband telephone access? Some laissez-faire economists say "no" to cross-subsidies as the way to achieve it—and think that if universal service for broadband is not achieved through market means, it wasn't meant to be. A digital divide is emerging worldwide and is further fragmenting society, as mentioned previously.
The scope of law enforcement— The Internet respects no national boundaries, so the scope of national laws can be violated. For example, gambling is illegal in many cities and states, but the Internet makes gambling readily available in those places. Other questions exist as to tax authority, preemption of local laws by national law, and the comparable treatment of e-commerce businesses with brick-and-mortar businesses. Jurisprudence has a long tradition of geographically-based authority that is undermined by the Internet. A new take on law and regulation is needed when the Internet becomes ubiquitous.