The Key Predictor of RBB Success

Ultimately, when dealing with consumer markets, winning comes by matching content to the appropriate distribution method.

Broadcast TV was the technological fit for a passive mass audience because of its one-way distribution of video and sound. From its earliest days to the present, from I Love Lucy to The Simpsons, from the first televised Olympics to the most recent NBA finals, television's programmers have sought to tap into broad, shared entertainment preferences. Broadcast TV was and still is an ideal advertising delivery mechanism as well, a fact that has subsidized it and ensured its continued existence.

The Internet is the technological fit for the active, two-way, point-to-point dissemination of information. That information is useful for research and business. The Internet could be a platform for entertainment as well, especially entertainment tailored to individual tastes and interactive participation. It, too, is an example of a technology that has evolved as an optimal combination of content and distribution.

RBB will take whatever form is needed to deliver the critical market drivers, the new content, and applications. For example, high-definition content would tend to favor higher-bandwidth networks, particularly cable and LMDS. Chat-room activity combined with broadcast TV favors networks that can provide integrated voice services. If program selection is a dominant driver, xDSL could be a cost-effective method of delivering this application. If Internet access alone is preferred and viewers obtain their TV over the air, networks with a strong return-path story have an advantage.

It is not clear at this point what the dominant market drivers will be. For that matter, new applications and content are certain to emerge. The point is that there is no one best Access Network for all services. Some technologies fit certain content better than others.

The success of RBB depends on finding the market drivers. The technology will follow.