The New Culture of Environmentalism
There is a new culture of environmentalism that is altering the way all clean energy goods and services are received by the general public. While far from universal, a major shift has occurred that has more people accepting climate change and responsibility for mitigating it. This is a significant difference from the solar boom of the 1970s.
Across the globe, people are expressing more willingness to purchase so-called “green” goods and services. This shift in public perception is bearing out in their purchase practices, as various products from solar to hybrid vehicles are experiencing expanding markets.
Particularly in China and the developing world, people yearn for more environmental protection and carbon management. This shift is critical because as China goes in solar, so goes the rest of the world.
Keywords
Solar polls; solar opinion; sustainability perception; climate change attitudes
Environmentalism is certainly nothing new. Philosophers, writers, and politicians have extolled the virtues of sustainability for hundreds of years. Over the last century in the United States, however, sustainability has typically been cast as a debate between environmental protection and economic growth. More recently, pioneering entrepreneurs have, in many ways, turned that debate on its head by demonstrating that environmentalism and economic growth are not mutually exclusive activities. This chapter will review the history of environmentalism and explain the key similarities and differences with the “green” movement currently underway in the United States and abroad.
One of the important premises of this book is that the factors driving the solar industry, such as globalization, capital markets, government intervention, public attitudes, and resource allocation, are interrelated and interconnected. Most of these factors are also clearly defined and routinely connected. Analyzing energy prices, for example, is a fairly straightforward endeavor.
Not so with public perception. This is for several reasons. First, it is a relatively recent phenomenon for pollsters to track perceptions in the United States and abroad. Second, terms of use change over time. For example, what was once called environmentalism may now be called sustainability, or clean, or green. Often times, terms with specific meanings are used interchangeably by people, further skewing our understanding. Carbon management is perhaps best understood as one form of sustainability or environmentalism, however, many use these terms to mean the same thing.
In order to reviewing the history of environmentalism in the United States and abroad and recognizing the limitations previously presented, this chapter will focus on two principal areas. The first is a review of public perception polling. The second is an increase penetration of so-called clean energy goods and services by the average consumer.
While these measures are perhaps more difficult to track, it is the opinion of this author that one of the significant differences between the previous solar boom and today is that society has undergone key changes, most notably a greater willingness to choose more environmentally friendly choices—even when more costly. This is particularly evident in the increased popularity of hybrid-electric vehicles. Perhaps as much as any other factor, the solar industry is boosted by consumers wanting to show the world that they have “gone solar.”
The modern environmental movement in the United States is generally considered to have been catalyzed by Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring.1 This text, published in 1962, detailed the impacts of pesticides on birds and highlighted the damaging effects of chemicals on the environment. Carson’s imagery captured the attention of the American populace and created a wellspring of support and advocacy for protecting the environment.
Many pundits still consider the environmental movement of the 1960s and 1970s to be nothing more than a philosophy pushed by a fringe group—often using the deriding term “tree hugger”—to minimize its potency. However, in the years following Silent Spring the United States experienced significant environmental policy changes, drastically altering the course of the nation’s sustainability. The movement spawned the Environmental Protection Agency, the Clean Water Act, the Clean Air Act, and Superfund, just to name a few.
Much of the “early” environmental movement dealt with visible pollution—dirty air, unsafe water supplies, and hazardous waste. Little was known about carbon or climate change. As a result, the discussion about clean energy, and solar power in particular, was primarily focused on volatile organic compounds, sulfur oxides, and other emissions that were being attributed to acid rain, asthma, and cancer.
While most of the environmental movement continued to gain momentum through the 1980s and 1990s (despite attempts to stifle it by the Reagan Administration and Newt Gingrich’s Contract with America), clean energy took a different path, one that has had significantly more highs and lows over time.
Global Trends
When attempting to measure changes in public perceptions, it is always difficult to select a starting point. This is specifically challenging when regarding sustainability environmentalism, two traits often cited by American Indian tribes is foundational, and lasting for tens of thousands of years. For our purposes, however, we will begin in 1972 with the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm.2
The 1972 Stockholm conference is widely regarded as the seminal moments of the modern environmental movement across the globe.3 The basic premise of the 1972 UN Conference, which was repeated throughout the 1970s and 1980s, was that environmental protection was a luxury of wealthy nations.4 This assumption, however, was tested by a massive study conducted by Gallup International in 1992.5
The 1992 survey, which was the most comprehensive global environmental survey to date, assessed residents of 24 nations that ranged in economic profiles and geographic regions. Interestingly, the survey showed that residents of all nations, regardless of economic attainment, view environmental degradation as a serious concern. Little has changed in this regard since 1992.
Around the same time, public perceptions and desires, as well as many policy debates, shifted from environmental protection versus growth and a new term “sustainable development” came into vogue. This way of thinking suggests that growth and sustainability are not in competition, nor mutually exclusive.
Perhaps the biggest change in global perceptions over the last 40 years is the public’s focus away from traditional pollution and towards climate change. Like other environmental causes before it, the public is starting to recognize that clean energy does not necessarily translate into higher energy prices and strangled growth, but that in fact there are economic benefits to clean energy and greenhouse gas reduction in addition to environmental ones.
Recent research suggests that there is a strong correlation between media attention to global warming and the public’s perception of it as a serious concern. According to a meta-analysis published in Public Opinion Quarterly,6 “by September 1988, following record summer heat and a major upswing in media attention, awareness of the issue [in America] had spread to 58 percent of the public (from only 39% in 1986). More recent polls, after years of up and down media reporting, suggest that awareness of global warming has increased to between 88–91%.”7
United States
Ample evidence suggests that “climate change” has become the major environmental concern in the United States, outpacing perennial front-runners of air pollution and water pollution.8 Since 2003, the number of Americans rating climate change as a “serious” or “very serious” issue has risen dramatically. A New York Times/CBS News Poll from April 2007 suggests that 90% of the American public believe climate change to be a serious problem. In fact, over half (52%) of respondents noted that global warming was important to them personally.
Despite the heightened awareness of climate change, few Americans report that they understand the issue well (about 11% reported understanding global warming very well in 2007, basically unchanged from 1992 polls).9 Global warming polls, taken nationally and across the globe do, however, indicate that more and more people believe climate change to be real, to be connected to greenhouse gas emissions, and that climate change will pose a threat to them in their own lifetimes.10
Comparing US sentiment to other nations, particularly within the European Union (EU), is difficult. Surveys are not conducted uniformly meaning that the sample frames, questionnaires, and geographic distribution of responses are not consistent. Compounding these difficulties, sentiment across the 50 states in the United States and within each EU country can vary widely. Though the EU generally has higher knowledge about and understanding of climate change and renewable technologies, it is in the similarities that give pause to the solar industry.
According to a slew of recent polls, Europeans and Americans alike—despite being generally in favor of environmental protection—are not translating these sentiments into changes in everyday life. Significantly higher numbers of respondents are concerned about climate change than those who believe governments should spend money to combat the issue, and even fewer report making significant changes to their consumer patterns. This finding suggests two things: (1) that public perception is better used as an indicator for support of utility-scale projects or consumer incentives and (2) firms need to focus more intently on marketing the nonenvironmental benefits in addition to reduced greenhouse gas emissions.
While these statistics demonstrate a heightened awareness and concern regarding climate change vis-à-vis other environmental issues, the needle has moved more slowly relative to other national concerns. Since 2006, several polls have shown issues, such as the economy, national security, and healthcare. As recently as 2008, a Pew poll reported that Americans were more interested in developing new forms of energy than protecting the environment.
Comprehensive analysis of public perception is a critical component in forecasting future growth of the solar industry. It also provides important marketing cues for businesses and can predict policy changes. While polling suggests that the US public is slightly less focused on climate change and environmental protection, then their counterparts in Europe, many other indicators can and should be explored, especially considering that many public opinion polls on these matters contain social biases.
While public perception of climate change has a longer history and therefore allows for better longitudinal analysis, two recent polls specific to public opinion of solar offer important insights for the industry.
The first poll reviewed was conducted by Hart Research for the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA). The survey, fielded in early September 2012, was a representative sample of over 1200 registered voters and oversampled “swing voters.” Overall, voters expressed a highly positive view of solar energy. In fact, 85% of voters have a very favorable (60%) or somewhat favorable (25%) view of solar energy.11 As illustrated below, this puts solar atop all other tested energy sources.
Interestingly for an election year with much attention paid to austerity, 64% of voters reported a desire for federal solar incentives and 70% of voters would like the federal government to do more (16% favor continuing its current policies and 14% prefer to see the government doing less).12 Specifically, voters indicated that 78% of voters say the “federal government should provide tax credits and financial incentives to encourage the development and use of solar energy and only 22% say the federal government should not do this.”13
Despite all of these positive news, respondents to that survey still believe that solar is too expensive (66%) to be practical for most consumers, while 54% believe that it is not practical for most parts of the country.14 This last finding is particularly problematic because it is likely that the reasons for their answers are not rooted in the actual feasibility of solar. Kentucky, with few state incentives and very inexpensive electrical prices, is an example of a state that is less attractive for solar than Massachusetts, which has less solar resource but high electric prices and an attractive rebate program.
Public perception matters because at least one of the benefits of “going solar” is reducing carbon and other emissions in electrical production. Whether for gathering support for utility-scale operations, beneficial public policies, or making individual consumer choices, the fact that solar power produces clean electricity is becoming more and more attractive to US residents.
Of course, public perception does not exist in a vacuum, and clean energy has a lot more to offer than simply environmental improvement. Issues such as energy security and perhaps most importantly, cost, are critical. As a result, it is imperative to analyze changes in consumer spending choices and penetration of “clean and green” goods and services in the United States and abroad.
One important bellwether for solar markets can be found in hybrid-electric automobiles. Like traditional solar systems, hybrid automobiles typically have higher upfront costs and return on investment (ROI) for consumers is highly dependent on tax policy and energy prices. Hybrid vehicles also suffer from many of the same doubts by the public regarding their cost-saving potential. Because of these similarities, and due to the more mature and less regulated market in which they operate, reviewing sales of hybrid vehicles is a good and comprehensive place to start the analysis for solar product penetration.
Current estimates suggest that 2012 is a banner year for hybrid vehicles helping to push US auto sales back to pre-recession levels. One report estimates that hybrid vehicle sales are up to 67% since 2011, a year in which hybrid vehicle market share increased from 2.1% to 3%, according to industry analyst Alan Baum.15 This success continues even as more fuel-efficient traditional gasoline engines invade the market.
Hybrid vehicle sales illustrate a new wrinkle in 2012—the uncoupling of sales figures with gasoline prices. For the first time ever, hybrid sales grew despite falling summer gasoline prices.16 While this may merely be an indication that the US consumer believes that high gasoline prices are here to stay, there is clear evidence that changing consumer sentiment is at play.
In one recent survey, the Harris Group found that:
The adoption curve for hybrid vehicles appears to wane with age. While nearly one-third (32%) of those under 35 years of age are more interested in alternative vehicle choices than they were a year ago, the same can be said for only 15% of those over the age of 67. In fact, 11% of those 67 and older report that they are less interested compared to one year ago.17
Perhaps even more importantly, the survey finds that a majority are basing their preferences on saving money (55%) while only about a quarter (26%) report environmental concerns.
Without clear and ongoing surveys of solar preferences, these patterns provide important context for the solar industry, and not only in the US Consumption patterns in the developing world (and China in particular) show low levels of penetration of efficient products, including hybrid-electric vehicles.
Europe
According to the Eurobarometer, nearly all (95%) Europeans feel that it is important to protect the environment, and, like their counterparts in the United States, a majority rank climate change as the most important environmental issue facing the world. So-called “old member” states generally view environmental policies and technologies more favorably than “new member” states within the EU. Interestingly, however, there is growing evidence that policies are in fact leading the public rather than vice versa.
The most recent data concerning Europeans’ perceptions are presented in a report by the EU from January 2013. Respondents from all 27 member nations were asked various questions related to air pollution, and specifically concerning the setting of energy policies and priorities.18
Fossil fuels fared quite poorly in the survey. Whether conventional (oil, gas, coal) or unconventional (shale gas, etc.), fewer than 10% of respondents across the EU were in favor. On the other hand, renewables enjoy very strong support with 70% in favor. This is particularly important given the recent economic downturn in Europe, as the data collected after austerity measures were put in place.19
Renewables are also much more popular than efficiency measures, which ranked favorably with only 28% of respondents. At the same time, “renewable energy sources are most mentioned by respondents in Portugal (82%), Austria, Spain, German, and Denmark (all 81%). In fact in only two countries are they mentioned by fewer than half of all respondents—Bulgaria (45%) and Romania (49%).”20
The report also includes a socio-demographic analysis. Somewhat surprisingly, there are no notable differences across groups regarding unconventional fossil fuels like shale gas with this option being mentioned by between 8% and 12% of each demographic. Also, men are more likely than women to prioritize nuclear energy (23% vs. 13%). Older respondents (55+) are the least likely to mention energy efficiency (24%) and renewable energy sources (65%), while each of those categories are mentioned more often as education level rises.21
China
Reliable measurements of public opinion in the developing world, as well as China, are less readily available than in other nations. However, a recent poll of 19 nations conducted by WorldPublicOpinion.org found that a majority of nations, 15 in total, has a citizenry that desires the government to do more to combat climate change. In China, a surprising 62% of respondents seek more action from their government. In fact, of the 19 nations surveyed, only Mexican residents placed climate change as a higher priority for their government.
China is also experiencing a significant youth movement that shows the early seeds of environmentalism. According to one recent study, 80% of young Chinese are concerned about global warming, however, this is not likely to change their consumption patterns. While 76% of the 2500 people surveyed said they did what they could to save energy, they still want a high-consumption lifestyle of a large house, car, and foreign travel.22
Given these conflicting demands, Chinese expect government and technology to drive change. In the same survey, 78% reported that it was the government’s responsibility to manage the environment. At the same time, the youth are flocking to hybrid-electric vehicles. This is another clear example that there is little appetite in China to pay more for clean technologies and less willingness to sacrifice standard of living.
There are no readily available, credible pubic opinion polls on Chinese solar perceptions. However, electric vehicle perceptions offer a critical window into the thinking of Chinese citizens’ “green” consumption patterns.
According to surveys conducted by Boston Consulting Group (BCG), Chinese citizens view electric vehicles more favorably than in the United States or Europe. This may be the result of the government’s promotion of electric vehicles, as well as a desire to be early technology adopters. That study showed that 91% of the Chinese surveyed were interested in electric vehicles, compared with 64% in the United States and 70% in Europe. Electric vehicles topped all other alternative fuel vehicles in China, while in Europe and the United States more respondents were interested in hybrid-electric vehicles as opposed to electric cars.23
A separate study by Neilson underscores these trends noting that “environmental awareness is rising along with higher oil prices in recent years, and more Chinese consumers are considering buying electric vehicles (EV), with a purchase intention of more than 50 percent. Compared to two years ago, consumers are willing to spend more for electric cars, and more than half (52%) of consumers are willing to pay a higher price for pure EVs, with a mean premium of 24,763 CNY, much higher than the 2009 level of 10,000 CNY. Consumers in Tier 1 cities such as Shanghai are willing to pay even more for EVs, 32,000 CNY on average.”24
In fact, BCG found that 13% of Chinese were willing to pay more for an alternative fuel car even if they would never recoup the higher price paid, as opposed to just 6% in the United States and 9% in Europe. Perhaps even more telling, 53% of Chinese noted their willingness to pay more for a vehicle up front if they made it back over time, while only 44% of Europeans and 38% of Americans reported the same.25
The new culture of environmentalism is driven by a movement of youth but is strongly supported by baby boomers in the United States, Europeans across demographics, in Asia, and across the developing world. Driven by heightened awareness of environmental issues, increased attention from national policy makers, and emphasis on new technology, consumers across the globe are racing to eco-friendly product options.
As the most popular renewable energy source across the globe and the one with the most consumer applications—from distributed electrical generation to domestic hot water heating—the solar industry is reaping and will continue to reap the benefits. However, cost remains critical. As can be seen across numerous clean technologies, a majority of consumers are concerned about higher upfront costs (particularly in the United States), especially when payback remains unclear.
At the same time, consumers seem positive but perhaps misinformed about the applicability and feasibility of solar power. Many would not consider a northern US state like Massachusetts to be a prominent solar market, however, with strong state policies, high electrical prices, third-party ownership, and lower component prices, Massachusetts is one of the fastest growing solar states and has the fastest time for ROI at only 4 years.
With greater awareness, continued installation growth, and ever-increasing environmental awareness, the solar industry is positioned for long-term, sustained growth all across the globe, despite potential short-term fluctuations.
1Carson, R. (1962). Silent spring. Greenwich, CT: Fawcett.
2Dunlap, R.E., 1994. International attitudes towards environment and development. In: Bergesen, H.O., Parmann, G. (Eds.), Green Globe Yearbook of International Cooperation on Environment and Development. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 115–126.
3See Baylis, J., Smith, S., 2005. The Globalization of World Politics, 3rd ed. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 454–455.
4Dunlap, at p. 115.
5id.
6Nisbet, M.C., Myers, T., 2007. Twenty years of public opinion about global warming. Public Opin. Q. 71 (3), 444–470.
7id.
8Washington Post Poll, 2007.
9id.
10See Nisbet and Myers (2007).
11SEIA National Solar Poll, September 2012.
12id.
13id.
14id.
15http://www.jsonline.com/business/hybrid-car-sales-not-as-dependent-on-gas-prices-d16eo2f-165867746.html.
16id.
17http://www.harrisinteractive.com/NewsRoom/HarrisPolls/tabid/447/mid/1508/articleId/1059/ctl/ReadCustom%20Default/Default.aspx.
18http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/flash/fl_360_en.pdf.
19id.
20id. at p. 101.
21id. at pp. 102–103.
22http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-08/20/content_6570747.htm.
23BCG, powering autos to 2020.
24http://www.nielsen.com/us/en/newswire/2011/the-next-generation-of-chinese-car-buyers-are-looking-for-style.html.
25BCG, powering autos to 2020.