INDEX
NOTE: Page numbers ending in “n” indicate endnotes.
A
asset-reliability problems, 60–61
assumptions
avoiding, 60–61
vs. definitions, 54
B
Bernoulli, Daniel, 132n
Bernoulli’s principle, 132n
bias in others, 11
books and publications
Moneyball, 98
Out of Poverty, 52
The Power of Habit, 66
bottling plant, smelling the problem, 35–36
box-closing machine, problem, 43–44
brainstorming, 20
C
cause analysis. See root cause analysis.
Challenger space shuttle catastrophe, 72
challenging opinion-based decisions, 102
chemical processing facility, problem, 64–65, 70–71, 89
chemical processing pumps, smelling the problem, 34–35
cholesterol intake, 73–74
choosing your method
categories of methods, 121
criteria for, 118–120
focusing on the problem, 118–119
introduction, 117
problem definition, 118–119
red flags, 120–121
root cause analysis, 118
typical broad steps, 120
variable analysis, 122–124
clogged nozzles problem, 44, 45, 54
company myths, 44–45
complex solutions, believing in, 90–91. See also hard problems
simple solutions.
complex solutions, examples
buying new equipment, 89
chemical processing facility, 89
organizing your closet, 88–89
computer losing power, smelling the problem, 33–34
confidence level for fact-based
decisions, 104–105
confirmation bias, opinion-based decisions, 106–107
conflicts of interest, 81–83
consensus opinions, 100
cookies disappearing, example of fact-based decision, 104–105
correlation vs. causation, 71–72
curse of knowledge, 83
the curse of luck, 22–23
customer service management, example of fact-based decision, 103–104
D
decisions. See fact-based decisions; opinion-based decisions.
deck, building, 47–48
dental hygiene, 65–66
DePodesta, Paul, 98
diagnosing illnesses, smelling the problem, 29–30
digging into fundamentals
benefits of, 69–71
introduction, 63–66
measurable variables, 66–69
patterns of failure, 71–73
relevancy, 66–67
digging into fundamentals, examples. See also examples of problems solved.
avoiding eggs, 73–74
chemical processing facility, 64–65, 70–71
cholesterol intake, 73–74
dental hygiene, 65–66
food processing plant, 72
lawn care, 67–69
our everyday lives, 73–74
toilets, 63–64
toothpaste, 65
unproductive oil well, 72
weight loss, 73–74
dinosaur hair problem, 44, 45, 54
drywall repair, example, 85
Duhigg, Charles, 66
E
easy problems, 8–9
eggs, avoiding, 73–74
equipment purchase, complex solutions, 89
examples of problems solved. See also smelling the problem, examples.
box-closing machine, 43–44
factory machinery in Georgia, 18
food processing plants. See food processing plants, problems solved.
toilet rolls and shrink wrap, 2–8
examples of problems solved, digging into fundamentals
avoiding eggs, 73–74
chemical processing facility, 64–65, 70–71
cholesterol intake, 73–74
dental hygiene, 65–66
food processing plant, 72
lawn care, 67–69
our everyday lives, 73–74
toilets, 63–64
toothpaste, 65
unproductive oil well, 72
weight loss, 73–74
expansiveness, 109–110
experts. See relying on experts; SMEs (subject matter experts).
extreme poverty, problem definition, 51–53
F
fact-based decisions. See also opinion-based decisions.
confidence level, 104–105
fact finding, 102–103
Oakland Athletics baseball team, 97–98
opinion-based decisions disguised as, 99–101
opinions vs. facts, 105
vs. opinions, 98–99
fact-based decisions, examples. See also examples of problems solved.
cookies disappearing, 104–105
customer service management, 103–104
order fulfillment, 103
performance coating company, 103–104
fact finding, fact-based decisions, 102–103
factory machinery in Georgia, problem, 18
facts vs. opinions, 105
Fault Tree Analysis, 25
focusing on the problem. See problem definition.
food processing plants, problems solved. See also examples of problems solved.
bottling plant, 35–36
box-closing machine, 43–44
cost of cardboard boxes, 72
making nutritional bars, 60–61
moldy food, 20–22
fundamentals. See digging into fundamentals.
G
garage door opener, problem, 125–126
The Great Poverty Eradication Myths, 52
guessing
choosing your method, 118, 120
controlling, 26
the curse of luck, 22–23
in detective work, 22–23
human nature, 26–27
overview, 17–18
in popular problem-solving methods, 23–25
problem definition, 53–55
reasons for failure, 18–22
Sherlock Holmes, 22
side effects of, 22–23
structured, 21–22
vs. simple solutions, 92
H
hard problems. See also complex solutions.
barriers to solving, 12–13
brainstorming, 20
definition, 9
examples, 9
guessing at solutions, 20
Holmes, Sherlock, 22
Hopkins, Claude C., 65
hypothesis, definition, 12
I
ignorance, embracing, 39–40, 45–48
ignorance, hiding
asking questions, 42
box-closing machine, example, 43–44
in business settings, 40–41
clogged nozzles, example, 44, 45, 54
consequences of, 42–45
dinosaur hair, example, 44, 45, 54
fear of exposure, 42
food processing plant, example, 43–44
making toothpaste tubes, example, 47–48
as a parent, 41
reasons for, 40–42
in situ analysis, 24
International Development Enterprises, 51–52
irrigation systems, 52–53
“it’s dark down there” problem, 72
L
lawn care problem, 67–69, 110–112
Lean techniques, 131n
LLC (limited liability company), setting up, 82–83
M
marital problems, 11
measurable variables
digging into fundamentals, 66–69
lawn care problem, 67–69, 110–112
problem definition, 55–56
measurements, opinion-based decisions, 107–108
methods for problem solving. See choosing your method.
misalignment, when relying on experts, 81–83
moderate difficulty problems, 19–20
Moneyball, 98
O
Oakland Athletics baseball team, recruiting practices, 97–98
oil well, digging into fundamentals, 72
opinion-based decisions. See also fact-based decisions.
accurate measurements, 107–108
challenging, 102
confirmation bias, 106–107
consensus opinions, 100
disguised as fact-based decisions, 99–101
opinions vs. facts, 105
pitfalls of, 101–102
relevant facts, identifying, 106
relying on experts, 99–101
statistical analysis tools, 106
on weight loss, 100
wisdom of the group, 99–101
vs. fact-based decisions, 98–99
vs. facts, 105
order fulfillment, example of fact-based decision, 103
organizing your closet, complex solutions, 88–89
Out of Poverty, 52
P
PackCorp Scientific Approach, 24–25, 131n
parenting, problem definition, 56–57
patterns of failure
correlation vs. causation, 71–72
digging into fundamentals, 71–73
failure to emerge, 72
“it’s dark down there” problem, 72
shortcomings, 71–73
for unique problems, 72
patterns of failure, developing, 31–33
Pepsodent toothpaste, 65
performance coating company, example of fact-based decision, 103–104
petrochemical clients, problem definition, 59
plastic cosmetic tubes, simple solutions, 94
Polak, Paul, 51–52
The Power of Habit, 66
practical problems, 8
prejudices when relying on experts, 83
primary variables. See measurable variables.
problem definition
asset-reliability problems, 60–61
assumptions vs. definitions, 54
avoiding assumptions, 60–61
choosing your method, 118–119
erroneous, 53–55
establishing a measurable variable, 55–56
extreme poverty, 51–53
food processing plant, example, 60–61
getting it right, 57–58
guessing, 53–55
irrigation systems, 52–53
maintaining scope, 58–59
in parenting, 56–57
for petrochemical clients, 59
in a publicly owned business, 58–59
questions to ask, 61
solving the wrong problem, 54–55
sub-Saharan Africa, 51–53
problem-solver’s schizophrenia, 126–127
problem solving life-changing benefits of, 10–11
methods for. See choosing your method.
problems, types of. See also examples of problems solved; specific problem types.
bias in others, 11
easy, 8–9
hard, 9
marital, 11
moderate difficulty, 19–20
practical, 8
PTT (push-to-talk), smelling the problem, 31–32, 81
publicly owned businesses, problem definition, 58–59
pump seal problem, 64–65, 70–71
Q
Quan, Mack, 46
questions to ask
to dispel ignorance, 42
problem definition, 61
relying on experts, 84
smelling the problem, 33
R
rapid answers when relying on experts, 80–81
red flags for choosing your method, 120–121
relevant facts, identifying, 106
relying on experts
effective use of, 83–86
introduction, 77–79
questions to ask, 84
reasons for, 79–80
SMEs (subject matter experts), 77–79
relying on experts, examples
drywall repair, 85
setting up an LLC (limited liability company), 82–83
relying on experts, pitfalls of
conflicts of interest, 81–83
curse of knowledge, 83
misalignment, 81–83
opinion-based decisions, 99–101
prejudices, 83
rapid answers, 80–81
risk-reward calculus, 82
wisdom of the group, 99–101
reporting simple solutions, 95–96
risk-reward calculus, 82
root cause analysis
choosing your method, 118
Fault Tree Analysis, 25
guessing, 21–22
PackCorp Scientific Approach, 24–25
in situ analysis, 24. See also smelling the problem.
S
scope
expansiveness, 109–110
lawn care problem, 110–112
mistakes happen, 115–116
problem definition, 58–59
simplifying, 112–115
simple solutions. See also complex solutions.
believing in, 95
introduction, 91
lack of, 94–95
reporting, 95–96
vs. guessing, 92
simple solutions, examples
making plastic cosmetic tubes, 94
running out of toilet paper, 92–93
weight loss, 92
simplifying scope, 112–115
Six Sigma techniques, 131n
breaking down barriers, 34–35
building team alignment, 35–36
developing patterns of failure, 31–33
end of the process, 36–37
importance of, 29
poverty in sub-Saharan Africa, 51–53
sample questions to ask, 33
toilet rolls and shrink wrap, 7–8
smelling the problem, examples. See also examples of problems solved.
bottling plant, 35–36
chemical processing pumps, 34–35
computer losing power, 33–34
diagnosing illnesses, 29–30
push-to-talk feature, 31–32
toilet rolls and shrink wrap, 6
SMEs (subject matter experts), 77– 79. See also relying on experts.
solutions. See simple solutions.
solving the wrong problem, 54–55. See also problem definition.
statistical analysis tools, 106
structured guessing, 21–22
sub-Saharan Africa, problem definition, 51–53
T
team alignment, building, 35–36
toilet paper running out, simple solution, 92–93
toilet rolls and shrink wrap, problem, 2–8, 114
toilets, digging into fundamentals, 63–64
toothpaste, 65
toothpaste tubes, problem, 47–48
TPS (Toyota Production System), 131n
V
variable analysis, choosing your method, 122–124
W
wisdom of the group, 99–101. See also opinion-based decisions.