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Book Description

Most decisions and plans in a firm require a forecast. Not matching supply with demand can make or break any business, and that's why forecasting is so invaluable. Forecasting can appear as a frightening topic with many arcane equations to master. For this reason, the authors start out from the very basics and provide a non-technical overview of common forecasting techniques as well as organizational aspects of creating a robust forecasting process. The book also discusses how to measure forecast accuracy to hold people accountable and guide continuous improvement. This book does not require prior knowledge of higher mathematics, statistics, or operations research. It is designed to serve as a first introduction to the non-expert, such as a manager overseeing a forecasting group, or an MBA student who needs to be familiar with the broad outlines of forecasting without specializing in it.

Table of Contents

  1. Cover
  2. Half Title Page
  3. Title Page
  4. Copyright Page
  5. Contents
  6. Acknowledgments
  7. Part 1 Introduction
    1. Chapter 1 Introduction
    2. Chapter 2 Choice under Uncertainty
    3. Chapter 3 A Simple Example
  8. Part 2 Forecasting Basics
    1. Chapter 4 Know Your Time Series
    2. Chapter 5 Time Series Decomposition
  9. Part 3 Forecasting Models
    1. Chapter 6 Exponential Smoothing
    2. Chapter 7 ARIMA Models
    3. Chapter 8 Causal Models and Leading Indicators
    4. Chapter 9 Count Data and Intermittent Demands
    5. Chapter 10 Human Judgment
  10. Part 4 Forecasting Quality
    1. Chapter 11 Forecast Quality Measures
    2. Chapter 12 Forecasting Competitions
  11. Part 5 Forecasting Organization
    1. Chapter 13 Sales and Operations Planning
    2. Chapter 14 Forecasting Hierarchies
  12. References
  13. Index
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