Chapter 22
Future-Friendly Design: Designing for and with Future Consumers
Andy Hines
University of Houston, Hinesight
Introduction
New product ideation and design is aimed at future markets, but the ideas and designs are typically developed using current consumer needs. This chapter offers a framework for understanding long-term values shifts that provide insight into how consumer preferences are changing into the future. Two emerging values types that are driving these changes are introduced and their trajectory over time is described. These shifting values are at the core of five emerging consumer needs, which are illustrated and brought to life with representative future personas. Implications for designers and developers are identified both in terms of adding to a tool kit as well as identifying themes of change cutting across the consumer landscape.
Designers and new product developers (hereafter “developers”) looking to develop innovative designs and products are continually challenged to understand how consumer preferences are changing. If only it were as simple as asking them what they will need in the future! The truth is that they don't know either. Thus, one looks for clues to future consumer preferences. My experience as the Global Trends manager with the Kellogg Company back in the 1990s introduced me to the notion that consumer values provided insight to changing consumer preferences, that is, what they might want to buy. More importantly, there were long-term patterns in how these values were changing. I built the initial values framework for Kellogg's and have since used it with dozens of clients over the years (Hines, 2011).
Long-term patterns in values change can provide a useful framework for understanding emerging consumer needs that in turn provide clues to their purchase preferences. They are at the core of five emerging needs that provide insight for designers and developers to produce “future-friendly” designs and products. The focus is on shifting values and emerging needs since the goal is to explore how the future is changing. Focusing on novel values and needs also provides an excellent opportunity for breakthrough innovation. It should be kept in mind, however, that current values and needs are still important and will characterize or drive the majority of offerings.
22.1 A Framework for Understanding Changing Consumer Values
Values are defined as “an individual view about what is most important in life that in turn guides decision-making and behavior” (Hines, 2011, p 9). In essence, they are the priorities consumers use to help them with important decisions, whether it is where to go to college or what kind of car to buy. They also implicitly guide more routine decisions, for example, should I buy the natural product that's a bit more expensive?
A snapshot of values in the present could be useful by itself, but of even greater utility is that the data suggests that they have been changing in a consistent direction over time. The World Values Survey (see www.worldvaluessurvey.org/) identified this pattern and offers a view on values change based on longitudinal data it has been gathering since the 1970s. In addition, research has identified more than two dozen systems relating to values (Hines, 2011). This paper extracts the insights as they relate to change in the future.
Let's begin with the four types of values. The first three types are derived from the World Values Survey data, while the fourth was hypothesized by the Spiral Dynamics system (Beck & Cowan, 1996; Inglehart, 1997).
The long-term shift is from left to right in Figure 22.1: from traditional to modern to postmodern to integral. The percentage estimates below derive from the World Values Survey data and Spiral Dynamics. They have not been updated recently and should be judged with caution.
- Traditional values have been around the longest and were prevalent for a great deal of human history, but are declining in the affluent countries (now at 25 to 30 percent of the population). In design terms, the key task of the designer is to produce a “consistent” design, appropriate to their beliefs, practices, histories, protocols, textbooks, and so on.
- Modern values are peaking in the affluent countries (35 to 40 percent) while they are surging in emerging markets. In design terms, the key task of designers is to produce the “best” design—one that beats the competition is most valuable.
- Postmodern values are growing in the affluent countries (25 to 30 percent). The key task here is a “participatory” design process, one in which everyone is heard and has input, honoring the unique perspectives that individuals bring.
- Integral values are just emerging in the affluent countries (about 2 percent). They key task here is “co-created” design that moves beyond input to direct involvement in the design process, such as open-source approaches.
Figure 22.1 Four value types.
The value types highlight patterns in preferences and priorities, but it should be noted that variations are more degrees of emphasis rather than either-or. For instance, postmoderns put a high priority on self-expression, but this doesn't mean that moderns or traditionals will not self-express—it is just less important to them in general.
In affluent countries, traditional and modern values are declining and postmodern and integral are growing. Postmodern values emerged in the late 1960s/early 1970s, and may be approaching critical mass similar to Gladwell's “tipping point,” or “magic moment when an idea, trend, or social behavior crosses a threshold, tips, and spreads like wildfire” (Gladwell.com, n.d.). Integral values today are at a similar point to postmodern values in the sixties/seventies in that they just now emerging and, if the model follows, may be poised to reach critical mass in a generation or two.
A key implication is that the divide between designer/developer and customer will get increasingly blurry; “us and them” is evolving toward “we.” The “Maker Movement” is one manifestation of this. Designers and developers have a great opportunity to join with these consumers to develop offerings in light with their emerging needs.
22.2 Emerging Consumer Needs
Most product development assumes knowledge of what the consumer wants to do—the problem is at least somewhat defined. Much of working with innovation, development, and design groups, particularly when working with futurists, involves coming up with concepts and ideas aimed at future problems and challenges that are not well defined. A core principle of this future-oriented work is starting with consumers and their needs: combining shifting values with trend identification to forecast the emerging needs to provide a preview of how the future may evolve. Keep in mind that there is continuity along with change and that the postmodern and integral values emphasized here are part of the change while the traditional and modern values are part of the continuity.
Several steps were taken to create the five emerging needs profiled here. Thirty-nine universal needs, 34 postmodern values, 16 integral values, and 13 consumer trends were identified, and then clustered, analyzed, and synthesized into a raw list of 120 potential emerging needs, which were sorted into daily life situations using the framework from John Robinson's Time Diary studies reported in his excellent book Time for Life (Robinson & Geoffrey, 1997) and now the basis for the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' American Time Use Survey (see www.bls.gov/tus/). The team looked for patterns in this matrix by combining, consolidating, and pruning the large list. After several iterations, the five emerging needs described below were identified and refined.
How can designers and developers use this knowledge? The emergence of new value priorities and changing mix of values types was analyzed and combined with consumer trends to produce the five emerging needs. The descriptor “emerging” was carefully chosen to signify that these needs are already appearing in consumer life to some degree today and will become increasingly important in the future. In geographies that index high for postmodern and/or integral, for instance, such as Sweden globally, or in California in the United States, the five emerging needs will be more apparent than in places indexing lower. Certainly, traditionals and moderns may also pursue these needs—they are not the exclusively held by postmoderns and integrals, but more prevalent among them. The five emerging consumer needs are:
- Keeping it real: Preference for the straight story.
- The [relentless] pursuit of happiness: Taking responsibility for one's well-being.
- Community first: Preference for things local.
- We [really] are the world: Feeling responsible for the well-being of the planet.
- Glass houses: Everyone is watching.
These emerging needs are described below with an accompanying representative future persona. Personas are representative characters that fit a profile of someone who has that need or needs. They are emerging today and are forecast to become increasingly evident over the next decade. Future personas can help designers and developers imagine “who” they are designing for. They help to make the abstract needs more concrete. It should be kept in mind that these personas are generalizations. As such, they will miss the diversity that will actually show up in how the emerging needs manifest in the future. For example, the demographics suggesting that Annie is a 35-year-old female does not imply that only 35-year-old females will have this need. It is an attempt to find the center of the need, and some trade-offs have to be made in providing details to help create a mental picture of the persona. It is also important to note that individuals may hold several of these needs. In fact that is very likely to be true. Someone who holds “keeping it real” may also hold “community first.” The personas are not exclusive. The intent in providing separate personas is to provide developers and designers with an image of how a particular need might manifest. Indeed, it may be possible to build a composite persona that combines the attributes. The future personas are covered in a consistent format that includes the following:
- Summary description: The first few paragraphs characterize the persona in general.
- Demographics: A profile of a “typical” persona who embodies the emerging need, including gender, age, household income, education, and life stage.
- Illustration: A visual to help facilitate the “real-ness” of the persona.
- Table: A summary table that includes the supporting need states of the emerging need, the values this persona would likely embrace, and the related trends supporting the persona's emergence.
- Committed time activities: How the persona would likely approach several aspects of committed time—work, household and family care, shopping, and personal/biological necessities.
- Free time activities: Description of how the persona would likely approach free time—learning, leisure (entertainment/recreation), affiliation, and communication.
- Vignette: A brief day-in-the-life snapshot that provides insight into how the persona might operate in daily life.
These particular ingredients are offered as a basic menu and they may be varied, added to, or subtracted as needed for a particular project—one might include generations, personality or thinking styles, worldviews, and so on.
Keeping It Real
A key word for postmodern and integral consumers is authenticity. It is the core value driving them to this emerging need. They are asking organizations to give it to them straight and trust them to be able to handle the truth. They will reject any paternalistic “for your own good” kind of sugarcoating. Their view is, “Treat me as an adult, as an equal, and as someone with a brain. Don't manage me.” Figure 22.2 illustrates “keeping it real” through the “authentic Annie” persona.
Demographics
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Figure 22.2 Keeping it real: authentic Annie. | ||
| Day in the Life Vignette | Activities | ||
| Annie's friend used to think she was so trendy. They laugh about it now, but having kids changed her somehow. Now it's more about what's not in the things she buys her family than the label or logo that the product carries. Thankfully she found a lot of “mommy blogs,” which have given her great tips…it's been years since she read a product review in the mainstream media. Sure, sometimes the stuff she buys costs a little more, but that's okay. She likes to think her choices make a difference, but she also likes the recognition that her choices are different. Hmm…maybe she hasn't given up her attachment to labels and logos entirely. |
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They are reacting against an overly managed world. “Delighting the customer” has gone to an extreme. As management of consumer experiences has gotten increasingly sophisticated, it has created a situation where every aspect of the experience is micromanaged, and these consumers sense that, and feel that they are constantly being manipulated—and they want it to stop.
Implications for Designers and Developers
- These consumers will appreciate designers and developers who “do the homework” to find out what authentic is, such as being of aware of history, origins, materials, and handling.
- “Warts-and-all” offerings may appeal to these consumers by representing authenticity.
- These consumers will appreciate simplicity that embraces or encompasses a great deal of complexity.
- Characteristics or keywords: authentic, simple, natural, and “less is more.”
The [Relentless] Pursuit of Happiness
The values shifts have a major theme of consumers rethinking the purpose of their lives. The pursuit of happiness is a purpose shared by many. It reflects the growing range of choices enjoyed by postmodern consumers who enjoy relative economic security. Figure 22.3 illustrates “the [relentless] pursuit of happiness” through the “Becky 2.0” persona.
Demographics
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Figure 22.3 The relentless pursuit of happiness: Becky 2.0. |
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| Day in the Life Vignette | Activities | ||
| The meeting with the dean went better than she expected. She had presented her vision for why the college should grow its own fruits and veggies and give up that portion of its corporate food service. Her premise is that connecting students to their food stream in this very tangible way will lower the schools carbon footprint and provide a psychological and health benefit that will pay off down the road. Thankfully she'd found the CampusGrows network on Facebook. She'd learned so much from other kids who were working on similar plans at their schools…getting crop/menu ideas, work plans, financial advice to make it self-sustaining, etc. Her motto is “there is always a better way.” Next stop…a meeting with the college president! Rock on! | Committed Time
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Traditional values do not put a priority on the pursuit of one's own happiness, as people's roles can be ascribed largely at birth in addition to an emphasis on God or others. The modern values pursuit of happiness tends to focus around economic achievement and material prosperity. The postmodern values holder, with relative economic security, has the freedom to consider a wider range of routes to happiness. Ironically, the modern-to-postmodern transition is often accompanied by a sense of angst. Many have experienced a sense of emptiness from the material prosperity route and call the meaning of their lives into question. The resultant search for meaning in life is not always easy or pleasant. Happiness becomes something that has to be achieved—it does not necessarily arrive on its own for the postmodern consumer.
There is a relentless aspect to this pursuit among some, reflecting a seriousness of purpose: “What makes me happy, and what do I have to do to get there?” This pursuit often involves assisting with others and working to benefit the community. It may also involve faith in a higher power, but this conception is often derived from multiple sources rather than subscribing to a single belief system.
Implications for Designers and Developers
- These consumers are looking to fit offerings into larger lifestyles, values, and sense of purpose, and evaluate purchase decisions with this fit in mind. These consumers are looking for designers and developers that will “help me help myself.” They may be particularly interested in co-creation, where they may be provided with tools, templates, and advice—and handle the rest themselves. For some products and designs, it will be simply about fast, easy, and cheap, but for others, which speak to their “identity,” designs and products will increasingly be evaluated in terms of how they influence one's sense of “happiness” or well-being.
- Characteristics and key words: DIY, happiness, well-being, assistance.
Community First
The emerging values shifts suggest a shift in scale from large to small and in scope from mass to custom. This shows up most strongly in this emerging need. It favors decentralized approaches. It is part of the sense, captured in other need states, that life has gotten too complex, moves too fast, and has become impersonal. It is this depersonalization in particular that drives the move to renewed interest in community, as people seek to reconnect with their life and with one another. In the ascent up the growth curve in modern society, the frenetic pace is seen as worth the trade-off for the economic reward. The postmodern consumer is more aware of the costs, has less need for economic security, and thus begins to reject this trade-off. Figure 22.4 illustrates “community first” through the “good neighbor Bob” persona.
Demographics
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Figure 22.4 Community first: good neighbor Bob. |
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| Day in the Life Vignette | Activities | ||
| Bob remembered how proud he was of himself when he bought his first pair of pants from American Apparel…it was a start but even that doesn't seem quite local enough for his taste anymore. That's why for the past 2 years, Bob's been on a mission to connect artists and craftspeople with people in the neighborhood through his new Locals ONLY iPhone app. Part eBay…and part ePinions, the content is all local. And why not? Brooklyn has everything to offer whether you're looking for artisan bread, an oil painting, or a handmade refurb'd bicycle. And the social aspects of the app take the guesswork out of who you're buying from…Bob's next challenge—take his LocalsONLY movement to other cities | Committed Time
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This desire for connection manifests in both the physical and the virtual worlds. These consumers question why they don't know their neighbors or even the mayor. They are looking for ways to get involved with what's going on directly around them, as this helps to provide an anchor or security in what is seen as an increasingly chaotic world. The explosion of Facebook and other social networking sites is evidence of how the virtual world can serve as a mechanism for connection.
Implications for Designers and Developers
- These consumers value locally produced offerings as way to support their local community. They will also tend to favor small, local producers in other jurisdiction if they are competing against a big, multinational competitor.
- These consumers could be key drivers of a move to require designers and developers provide some kind of local benefit.
- These consumers place trust in their physical as well as virtual networks and may rely on them for advice, referrals, or even to co-create via crowdsourcing approaches, which will continue to grow stronger.
- Characteristics and keywords: local, community, network, crowdsourcing.
We [Really] Are the World
The title of this emerging need plays on the 1985 song “We Are the World,” which was recorded to support charitable causes in Africa. That effort spurred some short-term attention, and while things soon returned to business as usual, the song lived on; the thought apparently touched something in these consumers that is now coming back to life, thus the “really” in parentheses. This time, the feeling of global responsibility or planetary consciousness is emerging as a stronger and more genuine force. Figure 22.5 illustrates “we [really] are the world” through the “Stewart'ship'” persona.
Demographics
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Figure 22.5 We really are the world: Stewart“ship”. |
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| Stewart couldn't wait to get off the plane and hit the ground running. He'd heard from his team that the villages where they were going to launch the microfinance pilot program were really excited by the possibilities. This sure was gonna be different than doing a deal on Wall Street, but he was glad he'd left that all behind. When he thought about it, his transformation probably started sometime after his church's mission trip to Haiti. He didn't go soft or anything…if anything, it reinforced his belief that free markets and commerce were the only answer. What it did do was make him realize that he could make a real difference. So he took his the nest egg he'd made in 20 years as a VP on Wall Street, set up a little foundation, and was going to do his part to bring people into the fold of the global economy and fight the powers that were driving people to extremism one microloan at a time. | Committed Time
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What has changed alongside the strengthening of the supporting values is the “flattening” (Friedman, 2005) of the world that enables easily accessible and real-time information about any event or situation almost anywhere in the world. Few geographies are beyond the reach of global media and communications. The connection to distant problems is more easily maintained and the options for action have increased as well. It has become much easier to act on these values now than it was back in 1985. So, while the values supporting this emerging need may well have been present 25 years ago, the supporting infrastructure was not—but it is now and increasingly so in the future.
Implications for Designers and Developers
- These consumers think of themselves as global citizens and will think through the ramifications of designs and products that go beyond national borders, with a genuine concern for planetary welfare and a willingness to act on that.
- These consumers are for ways to make a tangible difference in the pursuit of idealistic grand schemes that suggest designs and products that blend vision and practicality.
- A sense of global social responsibility will be an added criterion for designs and products that appeal to these consumers; they will be inclined to ask what it adds the common welfare?
- Characteristics and keywords: global, sustainable, vision, difference.
Glass Houses
These consumers are the activists and many will have an aggressive orientation. They are intolerant of behavior they deem wrong and are not afraid to let the offender, or any interested party, know about it. They feel they are not to be trifled with and that their values and beliefs are important and need to be respected. Figure 22.6 illustrates “glass houses” through the “high-tech Tina” persona.
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Figure 22.6 Glass houses: high-tech Tina. | ||
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| It was fitting she thought that they launched their NGO on the 40th anniversary of Woodstock. It was where she and James met. They were so young then…but man, if they'd had the technology they have now back then. The NGO—called The Watchtower Group is going to build a web tool to help individuals track the social performance of their investments in real time. Users enter their stock and mutual fund holdings and pick from a list of 50+ issues that they care about—such as the company's stance on fair trade, treatment of employees, environmental record, local vs. global sourcing, etc. They get a baseline report as well as real-time alerts. They'd also get the option to ping the investor relations departments to voice their support…or displeasure. |
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These consumers are watching, often all the time. They are often savvy users of technology and expert in the world of information, and they use that to support their cause. Accountability is the buzzword; it won't always be pleasant; and it won't always be fair. The best an organization can do is stay consistent and true—or, closing the circle back to our first emerging need, be authentic. “Spin” and message control and such tools will only get organizations into trouble. Telling the truth will, eventually at least, earn respect and credibility that will be appreciated and rewarded over the long haul.
Implications for Designers and Developers
- These consumers will be inclined to transparent and open approaches; they will want to know how a design or product was derived, or at least know that they can have access to that information.
- These consumers are looking for trusted partners to help them navigate through what they see as a complicated and even insecure future. They will appreciate partners who are willing to admit faults and mistakes, seeing it as a sign of good faith.
- These consumers are likely to embrace a collaborative approach to design and development.
- Characteristics and keywords: open, transparent, participation, collaboration.
22.3 Going Forward
The emerging needs are offered to designers and developers as a means to develop future designs and products. The personas help to illustrate and create a mental picture or image of what those consumers might be like. Two principal ways to use the ideas in this chapter going forward are suggested:
- The first and perhaps more valuable long-term applications are the potential additions to the design and development tool kit.
- The second involves using the specific implications accompanying each need and persona and a set of key themes derived from them that will be identified below.
The Tool Kit
The values framework provides a foundation for understanding and insight into future consumer preferences, thus enabling designers and developers to align their work with the future. Consumer expectations of designers and developer are growing—they will expect to be understood. Insight into values provides a basic framework for understanding what is important to them.
Designers and developers are, of course, busy, thus the tool kit provided here can be “laddered up” depending on how much time is available for understanding consumer preferences:
- The four value types provide a “quick-and-dirty” framework.
- The values, when combined with consumer trends provide additional understanding.
- Combining the values into five emerging consumer needs adds another layer of understanding.
- Studying the personas that accompany the emerging consumer needs helps bring those needs alive.
- Finally, the personas can be customized and enhanced to provide a multilayered approach to understanding the consumer targets.
The future personas are intended to serve as targets for designers and developers by providing a visual picture of consumers who embody the emerging needs. They present a means to address the challenge mentioned at the beginning of this piece to design and develop products based on a view of how the future will be different, rather than assuming that the present situation will continue. The personas can be used during ideation sessions both to generate ideas—what types of designs or products will consumers with needs want. The personas can also help refine concepts by helping designers and developers tailor them with a more informed sense of what motivates these consumers.
Some Key Themes
This chapter suggests that the consumer landscape is changing in ways that can be understood. It is important to understand the values as they provide the “why” behind the needs. Consumers will expect designers and developers to be aligned with them, to understand them, and to relate to them. Each of the five emerging needs and personas were accompanied by implications for specifically appealing to them. We'll conclude this chapter with some themes or big ideas that apply in general to the two values types—the postmoderns and integrals—at the leading edge of changing consumer preferences. It is not intended to suggest that these needs are inevitable. Futurists recognize that for every trend there is a potential countertrend, and thus it is important to monitor the future as it unfolds for any changes in direction.
- Consumer preferences are bifurcating into those offerings that are generic or commodity-like where they seek fast, cheap, and easy solutions, and those where the product or design means something to them, that is, it speaks to their identity and their values. For the latter, consumers will be more concerned and involved with the design and development process.
- There will be a great desire for more open approaches that encourage participation and co-creation, especially for those offerings that appeal to their identity.
- For these offerings to appeal to one's identity, the story behind the design and development will be a key ingredient driving the purchase decision.
- In cases where consumers want to be involved, deeper association with designers and developers who provide advice, tools, and templates in more of a coaching role to offer an environment within which consumers can create.
It should be kept in mind that the emphasis of this chapter has been on the future and on emerging needs. Current needs will not only remain with us but will characterize the majority of offerings. Along those lines, even the emerging needs are indeed already with us to a degree. While at the leading edge of change today, the research suggests that these emerging needs will increasingly join the mainstream over the next decade. Understanding and embracing their emergence will provide designers and developers insight upon which to develop their designs.
References
- Beck, D., & Cowan, C. (1996). Spiral dynamics: Mastering values, leadership, and change. Malden, MA: Blackwell.
- Friedman, T. (2005). The world is flat: A brief history of the twenty-first century. NY: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
- Gladwell.com. (n.d.). The tipping point. Retrieved October 23, 2014, from http://gladwell.com/the-tipping-point/
- Hines, A. (2011). ConsumerShift: How changing values are reshaping the consumer landscape. Tucson, AZ: No Limits.
- Inglehart, R. (1997). Modernization and postmodernization: Cultural, economic, and political change in 43 societies. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
- Robinson, J. P., & Geoffrey, G. (1997). Time for life: The surprising ways Americans use their time. University Park, PA: Pennsylvania State University Press.
About the Author
Dr. Andy Hines is Assistant Professor and Program Coordinator for the University of Houston's Graduate Program in Foresight and is also speaking, workshopping, and consulting through his firm Hinesight. His 24 years of professional futurist experience includes a decade's experience working inside first the Kellogg Company and later Dow Chemical, and consulting work with Coates & Jarratt, Inc. and Social Technologies/Innovaro. His books include Teaching about the Future, ConsumerShift: How Changing Values Are Reshaping the Consumer Landscape, Thinking about the Future, and 2025: Science and Technology Reshapes US and Global Society. His dissertation was “The Role of an Organizational Futurist in Integrating Foresight into Organizations.” Dr. Hines can be contacted about this chapter at [email protected] or 832.367.5575.