Causal Analysis and Resolution: A Support Process Area at Maturity Level 5
Purpose
The purpose of Causal Analysis and Resolution (CAR) is to identify causes of selected outcomes and take action to improve process performance.
Tip
CAR helps you establish a disciplined approach to analyzing the causes of outcomes, both positive and negative, of your processes. You can analyze defects or defect trends, problems such as schedule overruns or inter-organizational conflicts, and positive outcomes that you want to replicate elsewhere.
Introductory Notes
Causal analysis and resolution improves quality and productivity by preventing the introduction of defects or problems and by identifying and appropriately incorporating the causes of superior process performance.
The Causal Analysis and Resolution process area involves the following activities:
• Identifying and analyzing causes of selected outcomes. The selected outcomes can represent defects and problems that can be prevented from happening in the future or successes that can be implemented in projects or the organization.
• Taking actions to complete the following:
• Remove causes and prevent the recurrence of those types of defects and problems in the future
• Proactively analyze data to identify potential problems and prevent them from occurring
• Incorporate the causes of successes into the process to improve future process performance
Hint
Integrating CAR activities into each project phase will help (1) prevent many defects from being introduced and (2) facilitate repetition of those conditions that enable superior performance, thereby improving the likelihood of project success.
Reliance on detecting defects and problems after they have been introduced is not cost-effective. It is more effective to prevent defects and problems by integrating Causal Analysis and Resolution activities into each phase of the project.
X-Ref
Causal analysis is mentioned in an IPM SP 1.5 subpractice (causes of selected issues); in the notes of OPM SP 1.3, (potential areas for improvement); as QPM SP 2.3, “Perform Root Cause Analysis”; and as an example work product in VER SP 3.2, “Analyze Verification Results.”
Since similar outcomes may have been previously encountered in other projects or in earlier phases or tasks of the current project, Causal Analysis and Resolution activities are mechanisms for communicating lessons learned among projects.
Types of outcomes encountered are analyzed to identify trends. Based on an understanding of the defined process and how it is implemented, root causes of these outcomes and future implications of them are determined.
Hint
The SEI has performed many independent assessments of acquisition programs since it was established and has developed acquisition archetypes, or acquisition patterns of failure, based on analyzing trends across multiple programs. For more information on this research, see www.sei.cmu.edu/acquisition/research/archetypes.cfm.
Since it is impractical to perform causal analysis on all outcomes, targets are selected by tradeoffs on estimated investments and estimated returns of quality, productivity, and cycle time.
Measurement and analysis processes should already be in place. Existing defined measures can be used, though in some instances new measurement definitions, redefinitions, or clarified definitions may be needed to analyze the effects of a process change.
Refer to the Measurement and Analysis process area for more information about aligning measurement and analysis activities and providing measurement results.
Causal Analysis and Resolution activities provide a mechanism for projects to evaluate their processes at the local level and look for improvements that can be implemented.
Hint
It is impossible to analyze all outcomes; instead, focus on those outcomes that are associated with the largest risk or present the greatest opportunity.
Causal Analysis and Resolution activities also include the evaluation of acquirer processes that interface with supplier processes as appropriate. A jointly performed causal analysis can lead to such improvement actions as the supplier improving its processes to more effectively execute in the context of the project or the acquirer improving its supplier interfaces.
Tip
Unlike OPM, CAR is triggered by an in-depth analysis of either defects or problems in your process to prevent negative or promote positive conditions that enable superior performance that you want to replicate across the organization.
When improvements are judged to be effective, the information is submitted to the organizational level for potential deployment in the organizational processes.
The specific practices of this process area apply to a process that is selected for quantitative management. Use of the specific practices of this process area can add value in other situations, but the results may not provide the same degree of impact to the organization’s quality and process performance objectives.
Related Process Areas
Refer to the Measurement and Analysis process area for more information about aligning measurement and analysis activities and providing measurement results.
Refer to the Organizational Performance Management process area for more information about selecting and implementing improvements for deployment.
Refer to the Quantitative Project Management process area for more information about quantitatively managing the project to achieve the project’s established quality and process performance objectives.
Tip
Successful implementation of CAR requires significant management commitment and process maturity to ensure that process data are accurately and consistently recorded, causal analysis meetings are adequately supported, and CAR activities are consistently performed across the organization.
Specific Practices by Goal
SG 1 Determine Causes of Selected Outcomes
Root causes of selected outcomes are systematically determined.
A root cause is an initiating element in a causal chain which leads to an outcome of interest.
SP 1.1 Select Outcomes for Analysis
Select outcomes for analysis.
This activity could be triggered by an event (reactive) or could be planned periodically, such as at the beginning of a new phase or task (proactive).
Hint
Let your data help you determine which outcomes, if addressed, will confer the most benefit to your organization. Process Performance Baselines (PPBs) and Models (PPMs) may help in this determination.
Example Work Products
1. Data to be used in the initial analysis
2. Initial analysis results data
3. Outcomes selected for further analysis
Subpractices
1. Gather relevant data.
2. Determine which outcomes to analyze further.
When determining which outcomes to analyze further, consider their source, impact, frequency of occurrence, similarity, the cost of analysis, the time and resources needed, safety considerations, etc.
Tip
Because it is impossible to look at every outcome, you should establish criteria to help you prioritize and categorize outcomes.
3. Formally define the scope of the analysis, including a clear definition of the improvement needed or expected, stakeholders affected, target affected, etc.
Refer to the Decision Analysis and Resolution process area for more information about analyzing possible decisions using a formal evaluation process that evaluates identified alternatives against established criteria.
Tip
An example method for analyzing and categorizing defects is Orthogonal Defect Classification (see Wikipedia; www.wikipedia.org), which provides standard taxonomies for classifying defects and their resolution.
SP 1.2 Analyze Causes
Perform causal analysis of selected outcomes and propose actions to address them.
Hint
To identify actions that address an outcome, you need to understand the outcome’s root causes.
The purpose of this analysis is to define actions that will address selected outcomes by analyzing relevant outcome data and producing action proposals for implementation.
Example Work Products
1. Root cause analysis results
2. Action proposal
Tip
An action proposal typically documents the outcome to be investigated, its causes, and specific actions that, when taken, will either mitigate the causes to prevent the outcome from reoccurring or increase the likelihood that conditions conducive to superior performance will occur.
Example Supplier Deliverables
1. Root cause analysis results
2. Recommended action proposals
Subpractices
1. Conduct causal analysis with those who are responsible for performing the task.
Causal analysis is performed, typically in meetings, with those who understand the selected outcome under study. Those who have the best understanding of the selected outcome are typically those who are responsible for performing the task. The analysis is most effective when applied to real time data, as close as possible to the event which triggered the outcome.
Tip
There are secondary benefits to causal analysis meetings. Participants develop an appreciation for how upstream activities affect downstream activities as well as a sense of responsibility and accountability for outcomes that might otherwise remain unanalyzed.
Refer to the Quantitative Project Management process area for more information about performing root cause analysis.
2. Analyze selected outcomes to determine their root causes.
Analysis of process performance baselines and models can aid in the identification of potential root causes.
Depending on the type and number of outcomes, it can be beneficial to look at the outcomes in several ways to ensure all potential root causes are investigated. Consider looking at individual outcomes as well as grouping the outcomes.
Tip
In their book Managing the Unexpected: Assuring High Performance in an Age of Complexity, Weick and Sutcliffe identify “mindfulness” qualities important in high-reliability organizations, including preoccupation with failure and reluctance to simplify. These attributes imply that the organization pays attention to detail when communicating about an individual situation and seeking to understand possible systemic causes to a range of apparently unrelated small problems.
3. Combine selected outcomes into groups based on their root causes.
In some cases, outcomes can be influenced by multiple root causes.
Hint
You develop cause-and-effect diagrams using iterative brainstorming (i.e., the “five whys”). This process may terminate when it reaches root causes outside the experience of the group or beyond the control of its management.
Where appropriate, look for trends or symptoms in or across groupings.
4. Create an action proposal that documents actions to be taken to prevent the future occurrence of similar outcomes or to incorporate best practices into processes.
Process performance models can support cost benefit analysis of action proposals through prediction of impacts and return on investment.
Tip
In his book The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right, Atul Gawande describes the role that properly designed checklists can play in preventing common problems. He discusses his experiences in designing such checklists and identifies the impact they have had in significantly reducing complications and fatalities from surgery.
SG 2 Address Causes of Selected Outcomes
Root causes of selected outcomes are systematically addressed.
Projects operating according to a well-defined process systematically analyze where improvements are needed and implement process changes to address root causes of selected outcomes.
Tip
The focus of this goal is implementing process changes that address root causes of selected outcomes, both positive and negative.
SP 2.1 Implement Action Proposals
Implement selected action proposals developed in causal analysis.
Action proposals describe tasks necessary to address root causes of analyzed outcomes to prevent or reduce the occurrence or recurrence of negative outcomes, or incorporate realized successes. Action plans are developed and implemented for selected action proposals. Only changes that prove to be of value should be considered for broad implementation.
Example Work Products
1. Action proposals selected for implementation
2. Action plans
Example Supplier Deliverables
1. Improvement proposals
Subpractices
1. Analyze action proposals and determine their priorities.
Process performance models can be used to help identify interactions among multiple action proposals.
2. Select action proposals to be implemented.
Refer to the Decision Analysis and Resolution process area for more information about analyzing possible decisions using a formal evaluation process that evaluates identified alternatives against established criteria.
3. Create action plans for implementing the selected action proposals.
4. Implement action plans.
To implement action plans, the following tasks should be performed:
• Make assignments.
• Coordinate the people doing the work.
• Review the results.
• Track action items to closure.
Experiments may be conducted for particularly complex changes.
X-Ref
For more information on designing experiments to understand the impact of certain changes, consult good references on Six Sigma and experimental design.
Hint
When a resolution has more general applicability, don’t document it in a “lessons learned” document; instead, document it in an improvement proposal.
Actions may be assigned to members of the causal analysis team, members of the project team, or other members of the organization.
5. Look for similar causes that may exist in other processes and work products and take action as appropriate.
SP 2.2 Evaluate the Effect of Implemented Actions
Evaluate the effect of implemented actions on process performance.
Refer to the Quantitative Project Management process area for more information about selecting measures and analytic techniques.
Hint
Use the measures associated with a process or subprocess (perhaps supplemented by other measures) to evaluate the effect of changes.
Once the changed process is deployed across the project, the effect of changes is evaluated to verify that the process change has improved process performance.
1. Analysis of process performance and change in process performance
Example Supplier Deliverables
1. Base and derived supplier measurements
Subpractices
1. Measure and analyze the change in process performance of the project’s affected processes or subprocesses.
This subpractice determines whether the selected change has positively influenced process performance and by how much.
Statistical and other quantitative techniques (e.g., hypothesis testing) can be used to compare the before and after baselines to assess the statistical significance of the change.
2. Determine the impact of the change on achieving the project’s quality and process performance objectives.
This subpractice determines whether the selected change has positively influenced the ability of the project to meet its quality and process performance objectives by understanding how changes in the process performance data have affected the objectives. Process performance models can aid in the evaluation through prediction of impacts and return on investment.
3. Determine and document appropriate actions if the process or subprocess improvements did not result in expected project benefits.
SP 2.3 Record Causal Analysis Data
Record causal analysis and resolution data for use across projects and the organization.
Hint
Collect data to determine whether you are improving project performance relative to your objectives, to identify whether you have prevented selected problems from reoccurring (or have enabled conditions conducive to superior performance to recur), and to provide sufficient context for organizational evaluation of improvement proposals for possible deployment across the organization (OPM SP 2.1 and 2.2).
Example Work Products
1. Causal analysis and resolution records
2. Organizational improvement proposals
Subpractices
1. Record causal analysis data and make the data available so that other projects can make appropriate process changes and achieve similar results.
Record the following:
• Data on outcomes that were analyzed
• Rationale for decisions
• Action proposals from causal analysis meetings
• Action plans resulting from action proposals
• Cost of analysis and resolution activities
• Measures of changes to the process performance of the defined process resulting from resolutions
2. Submit process improvement proposals for the organization when the implemented actions are effective for the project as appropriate.
When improvements are judged to be effective, the information can be submitted to the organizational level for potential inclusion in the organizational processes.
Refer to the Organizational Performance Management process area for more information about selecting improvements.