Chapter 17. Perusing Periodicals, Radio, and Television

In This Chapter

  • Sifting through financial magazines and newspapers

  • Surveying radio and television programs

  • Steering clear of most investment newsletters

All the news that's fit to print or broadcast — newspapers, magazines, newsletters, and radio and television programs inundate us with investing information and advice. In this chapter, I explain what to look for — and what to look out for — when you tune in to these media sources in the hopes of investing better.

In Print: Magazines and Newspapers

Visit a newsstand, and you find many investing publications as well as general interest publications with investing columns. I've written investing articles for various magazines and newspapers. Some of the experiences have been enjoyable, others okay, and a few miserable. The best publications and editors I've written for take seriously their responsibility to provide quality information and advice to their readers.

Taking the scribes to task

In this section, I discuss the problems with magazine and newspaper investment articles.

Highlighting hype and horror

Whenever the stock market suffers a sharp decline, many in the media bring out the gloom and doom. Front-page headlines such as "The Beginning of the End" torment investors about holding on to their stocks. An avalanche of such articles, like that seen in late 2002 and early 2003, often coincides with a bottoming stock market. When the stock and real estate markets slid in the late 2000s, scores of "the sky is falling" pieces populated the pages.

Another particularly popular subject for such reporting is the cost of a college education. (See, you can write a sentence about the cost of education without including the word skyrocketing.) Scores of articles horrify parents with estimates of the expected costs associated with sending Junior to campus. The typical advice: Start saving and investing early so you don't have to tell Junior that you can't afford to send him to college.

Note

Cost-of-college stories typify another failing of the horror stories. The horror is the story, and the accompanying advice can be shortsighted. Completely overlooked and ignored are the tax and financial aid consequences of the recommended investment strategies. For example, if parents don't take advantage of tax-deductible retirement accounts and instead save outside them, they not only pay more in taxes but also generally qualify for less financial aid. Sound investing decisions require a holistic approach that acknowledges that people have limited money and must make these sorts of trade-offs.

Offering poor advice

To sell their publications, magazines and newspapers sometimes entice readers with promises of high returns. This can easily lead to crummy advice.

Consider the gaffe made by a Money magazine piece titled "Where to get safe, high yields." The title itself should have been a red flag: It's impossible to find a safe high yield. To get high yields, you must be willing to accept more risk. In the Money article, three of the recommended investments were limited partnerships (LPs) sold through commission-based brokers. These products' high commissions and ongoing fees doomed even the luckiest of investors to mediocre or dismal investment returns.

The Money article even asserted that investors could earn annual returns as high as 18 percent on some LPs. Students of the financial markets know that the best ownership investments, such as stocks and real estate, return no more than 10 to 12 percent per year over the long haul. To expect more is to hold unrealistic expectations.

Quoting experts who are not

Historically, one way that journalists have attempted to overcome technical gaps in their knowledge is to interview and quote financial experts. Although this may add to the accuracy and quality of a story, journalists who aren't experts themselves have difficulty telling qualified experts from hacks. (See Chapter 16 for a discussion on examining the qualifications of writers who offer up financial guidance.)

Note

One glaring example of this phenomenon that continues to amaze me is how many newspaper and magazine financial writers quote unproven advice from investment newsletter writers. As I discuss in the section "Investment Newsletters," later in this chapter, the predictive advice of many newsletter writers is often wrong and causes investors to earn lower returns and missed investment gains due to frequent trading than if they simply bought and held. Journalists who simply parrot this type of information and provide an endorsement that unqualified sources are "experts" do readers an immense disservice.

Focusing on noise and minutiae

Daily financial press writers also contribute to today's shortsighted investment environment and encourage readers to adopt similarly misguided outlooks. It's common for daily newspaper charts to show the stock market's movements at five-minute intervals throughout the previous day. This focus on the noise of the day causes nervous investors to make panicked, emotionally based decisions, such as deciding to sell after major stock market falls.

Of course, the daily print media aren't the only ones chronicling the minutiae. As I discuss elsewhere, other media, including television, radio, and the Internet, cause many investors to lose sight of the long term and the big picture.

Note

The short length of newspaper and magazine articles can easily lead writers to oversimplify complex issues and offer flawed advice. For example, some pieces on mutual funds focus on a fund's returns and investment philosophies, devoting little, if any, space to the risks or tax consequences of investing in recommended funds.

Making the most of periodicals

Tip

So what should you do if you want to find out more about investing but don't want to be overloaded with information? Educate yourself and be selective. If you're considering subscribing to financial publications, go to the library first and review some old issues. Was the information and advice useful and error free? The more you know, the easier it is to separate the wheat from the chaff.

Shy away from publications that purport to be able to predict the future — few people can, and those who can are usually busy managing money. Unfortunately, as the financial markets got more volatile in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and then again in the late 2000s, I witnessed more and more publications promoting columnists and headlines that attempted to prognosticate the future.

Note

Read bylines and biographies and get to know writers' strengths and weaknesses. Ditto for the entire publication. Any writer or publisher can make mistakes. Some make many more than others — follow their advice at your own peril. Start by evaluating advice in the areas that you know the most about. For example, if you're interested in investing in Microsoft or Intel and are reasonably familiar with the computer industry, find out what the publications say about technology investments.

And remember that you're not going to outfox the financial markets, because they're reasonably efficient (see Chapter 4). Spend your time seeking out information and advice that help you flesh out your goals and develop a plan rather than trolling for the next hot stock tip or worrying about short-term trends.

Radio and Television Programs

As you move from the world of magazines and newspapers to radio and television, the entertainment component usually increases. In this section, I highlight some common problems with radio and television programs and offer some recommendations for the better programs.

Looking at problems with radio and television programs

I've been a guest on hundreds of radio and television programs. Just as Dorothy discovered in The Wizard of Oz, seeing how things work behind the scenes tends to deglamorize these mediums. Here are the main problems I've discovered from my years observing radio and television.

You often get what you pay for

Some of the worst financial advice is brought to you, not surprisingly, for "free." Nationally, thousands of radio stations have financial and money talk shows. Money and investing shows are proliferating on television cable channels. Because listeners don't pay for these shows, advertising often drives who and what gets on the air, as I discuss in Chapter 16. But I've found that some of the worst offenders are local — and even national — radio advice programs.

Some of these shows are "hosted" by a person who is nothing more than a financial salesperson. That person's first, and sometimes only, motivation for wanting to do the show is to pick up clients. Many local radio investing programs are hosted by a local stockbroker (who usually calls himself a financial consultant or planner). A broker who reels in just one big fish a month — a person with, say, $300,000 to invest — can generate commissions totaling $15,000 by selling investments with a 5 percent commission.

But radio suffers from more than brokers trolling for new clients, as evidenced by the case of Sonny Bloch, a New York radio personality who was indicted for fraud. The Securities and Exchange Commission found that Bloch was receiving kickbacks from investment brokers for endorsing some pretty crummy investment products on his nationally syndicated radio show. The SEC also filed a complaint against Bloch for defrauding investors of millions of dollars to supposedly purchase some radio stations. Instead, according to the SEC, Bloch and his wife used hundreds of thousands of dollars to purchase a condominium. Partners in a precious metals firm (DeAngelis Brothers Collectibles) that Bloch regularly endorsed on the air were arrested for theft and ended up in bankruptcy.

Warning

I know from personal experience what too many radio stations look for in the way of hosts for financial programs. The host's integrity, knowledge, and lack of conflict of interest don't matter. Willingness to work for next to nothing helps: One radio station program director told me that she liked the broker who was hosting a financial talk show because the broker was willing to work for so little compensation from the radio station. Never mind the fact that the broker rarely gave useful advice and was obviously trolling for new clients. That didn't matter to the program director, who told me, "We're in the entertainment business."

Information and hype overload

At 9:30 a.m. EST the New York Stock Exchange opens, and transactions start streaming across the bottom of television screens tuned to financial cable stations. Changes in the major market indexes — the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ index — also flash on the screen. In fact, these indexes are updated almost every five seconds on the screen. Far more exciting than a political race or sporting event, this event never ends and offers constant change and excitement. Even after the markets close, reporting of still-open overseas markets continues. The performance of futures of U.S. stock market indexes then appears on screen.

Warning

All of this reporting and data don't make us better investors. Although the conventionally accepted notion is that this information overload levels the playing field for the individual investor, I know too many investors who make emotionally based decisions prodded by all this noise, prognostication, opinion, and hearsay.

Poor method of guest selection

Some journalists, often in an effort to overcome their own lack of knowledge, like to interview "experts." A classic example of this problem is the media exposure that author Charles Givens used to receive. Givens became a darling of the media and the public following unprecedented, consecutive three-day appearances on NBC's Today show.

"When Charles Givens talks, everyone listens," said Jane Pauley, then co-host of the Today show. Bryant Gumbel, the other co-host, said of Givens, "Last time he was here, the studio came to a complete stop. . . . Everyone started taking notes, and I was asking for advice." Givens regularly held court on the talk show circuit with the likes of Larry King and Oprah Winfrey.

The Givens case highlights some of the media's inability to distinguish between good and bad experts. It's relatively easy for the financially sophisticated to see the dangerous, oversimplified, and biased advice that Givens offers in his books. In his first best-seller, Wealth Without Risk, Givens recommended investing in limited partnerships and provided a phone number and address of a firm, Delta Capital Corp. in Florida, where readers could buy the partnerships. Those who bought these products ended up paying hefty sales commissions and owning investments worth half or less of their original value. Besides the problematic partnerships he recommended, court proceedings against Givens in a number of states uncovered that he owned a major share of Delta Capital.

Warning

Other investing advice from Givens that gives pause: In his chapters on investing, he said that the average yearly return you'll earn investing in mutual funds will be 25 percent or 30 percent. The reality: An investor would be fortunate to earn half of these inflated returns.

So how did Givens get on all these national programs? He had a shrewd publicist, and the show producers either didn't read his books and/or were themselves financially illiterate. Talk shows and many reporters often don't take the time to check out people like Givens. Most of the time, the books are never read. Producers, who themselves usually don't know much about investing, often decide to put someone on the air on the basis of a press kit or a call from a publicist.

Picking the best investing programs

Note

Even though I warn you about problems associated with radio and television investing advice, you can find some good programs and hosts among the bad apples. The following are my picks for the best of the lot:

  • Money Talk: Bob Brinker's ABC radio program airs weekend afternoons in most parts of the country. Brinker is an advocate of investing in mutual funds. The one area where Brinker and I disagree is that he does advocate market timing — he puts out a newsletter called MarketTimer, whose investment picks haven't performed as well as the market averages over the long term. That said, Brinker does help listeners stay focused on the big picture and headed in generally the right direction.

  • Kudlow & Company: Conservative economist Larry Kudlow hosts one of the few shows on CNBC worth watching. Liberals may be turned off by Kudlow's politics, but the show features guests who present a balance of viewpoints when Kudlow delves in to political issues. Kudlow's long-term optimism can help skittish investors keep their wits when so many are losing theirs!

Investment Newsletters

Particularly in the newsletter business, prognosticators fill your mailbox with promotional material making outrageous claims about their returns. Private money managers, not subject to the same scrutiny and auditing requirements as mutual funds, can do the same.

Note

Be especially wary of any newsletters making claims of high returns. Stephen Leeb's Personal Finance newsletter, for example, claims that he has developed a brilliant proprietary model, which he calls the "Master Key Indicator." His model supposedly has predicted the last 28 upturns in the market in a row without a single miss. The odds of doing this, according to Leeb, are more than 268 million to 1! The ad goes on to claim that Leeb's "Master Key" market-timing system could have turned a $10,000 investment over 12 years into $39.1 million, a return of 390,000 percent!

Turns out that this outrageous claim was based on backtesting, looking back over historic returns and creating "what if" scenarios. In other words, Leeb didn't turn anyone's $10,000 into $39 million. Much too late after that ad appeared, the SEC finally charged Leeb with false advertising. Leeb settled out of court for a mere $60,000 fine (far less than he cost investors).

According to the Hulbert Financial Digest, the worst investment newsletters have underperformed the market averages by dozens of percentage points; some would even have caused you to lose money during a decade when the financial markets performed extraordinarily well. Newsletter purveyor Joe Granville, for example, has long been known for making outrageous and extreme stock market predictions and is often quoted in financial publications. He claims to have the number-one-rated newsletter — omitting to mention that it was number one for one year only (in 1989). Over the subsequent decade — one of the best decades ever for the stock market (with U.S. stocks more than quadrupling in value) — followers of Granville's advice lost 99 percent of their investments!

Note

Be highly suspicious of past investment performance claims made by investment newsletters. Don't believe a track record unless a reputable accounting firm with experience doing such audits has audited it. In order for you to make sound investing choices, you don't need predictions and soothsayers. If you choose to follow these and you're lucky, little harm will be done. But more often than not, you can lose lots of money by following their predictions. Stay far away from publications that purport to be able to tell what's going to happen next. No one has a crystal ball.

The best investment publications can assist you with research and ideas. For individual stock selection, please see my recommended resources in Chapter 6.

..................Content has been hidden....................

You can't read the all page of ebook, please click here login for view all page.
Reset
3.145.154.86