Index
3-Point Estimate 277; see also Accuracy and Precision
Accuracy 112–16, 265; see also Precision and 3-Point Estimate
Actual Cost (AC) see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP) 27–8; see also EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Actual Time (AT) see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
ACWP (Actual Cost of Work Performed)
Adjusted R-Square 265; see also R-Square
ADORE 265; Assumption 266; Dependency 269; Exclusion 272; Opportunity 277; Risk 279; see also ECUADOR
Alternative Hypothesis see Hypothesis Testing
Analogical Estimating Method 10, 265
Analogous Method see Analogical Estimating Method
Analogy see Analogical Estimating Method
Approach see Estimating Approach
A/S/c/K/N/D notation see Queueing Theory: notation
Assumption 266; see also ADORE
Asymptote 266
Augustine, N.R TBA
Average see Arithmetic Mean
Average Absolute Deviation (AAD) 266; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Axiom 266
Background Correlation 132, 140, 141, 143
Base Year Values 266
Benford’s Law 266; fraud detection 10
Bessel’s Correction Factor 266
Beta Distribution 61–3, 118–28
Bounded Development Project 26–7
Budget At Completion (BAC) see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (BCWP) see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled (BCWS) see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Central Limit Theorem 103
Chauvenet’s Criterion 266; see also Outlier T est
Chi-Squared Distribution 254
Closed Interval 267; see also Open Interval
Coefficient of Determination 267
Coefficient of Variation (CV) 267
Collaborative Working 12–13; penalty 267
Collinearity see Multicollinearity
Commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) 143
Comparative Estimating Method see Analogical Estimating Method
concave curve or function 267; see also convex curve
Confidence Interval 267; see also Prediction Interval
Confidence Level 267
Confidence Limit 268
convex curve or function 268; see also concave curve
Correlation 10, 268; Copula 268; Pearson’s Linear Correlation Coefficient 277; see also Measures of Linearity, Dependence and Correlation; see also Correlation Matrix and Linear Correlation and Rank Correlation
Correlation Matrix 140–1, 143–4, 144–5, 147; chain-linked correlation 135–40; Geometric Mean 137–8; isometric correlation 143; hub-linked correlation 140–3; Monte Carlo Simulation 129–47
cost and schedule analysis 215–17
Cost and Schedule Correlation 185–6
Cost Driver see Estimate Drivers
Cost Performance Index (CPI) 185; see also EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Cost Variance (CV) see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Covariance 268; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Crawford’s Unit Learning Curve 268; see also Quantity-based Learning Curve
Critical Path: definition 208
Critical Path Analysis 207–21; Binary activity paths 210–15; cost and schedule analysis 215–18; Earliest Finish Time 208–9, 212–13; Earliest Start Time 208–9, 212–13; Float 208–9, 211, 215; in Microsoft Excel 210–13; Latest Finish Time 208–9, 213–15; Latest Start Time 208–9, 213–15; Monte Carlo Simulation 218–20; Network diagram; Planned Duration 208–9; procedure 210–14; Time-phased estimate 208–9; Variable Critical Paths 218–20
Cross-Impact Analysis 268
Cumulative Average 268
Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) 113–15; Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function (CCDF) 267; Continuous 269; Discrete 268
Current Year Value 269
Curve Fitting 12
CV: see Coefficient of Variation and Cost Variance
Cycle compression 26
Data Type 269
Deciles 269; see also Percentiles, Quantiles, Quartiles and Quintiles; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Degrees of Freedom 269
DeJong Unit Learning Curve 269; see also Quantity-based Learning Curve
Delphi Technique 269
Dependency 269; see also ADORE
Descriptive Statistic 269; see also Inferential Statistic
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) 269; Discount Rate 269
Dixon’s Q-Test 270; see also Outlier Test
Drivers see Estimate Drivers
Earned Schedule (ES) see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Earned Value (EV) see BCWP (Budget Cost of Work Performed)
Earned Value Analysis 270 see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Earned Value Management (EVM) 63–4, 270 see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
ECUADOR 151; sentencing issues 151
escalation 187
Estimate 271
Estimate At Completion (EAC) see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Estimate Drivers 271
Estimate Maturity Assessment (EMA) 9, 271
Estimate To Completion 90–2; Comparison 90–2; Guess and Iterate 64–8; Microsoft Excel Solver 68–73; non-linear Regression 73–81; Weibull Distribution 81–90; see also EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Estimating Approach 9, 271; Bottom-up Approach 266; Ethereal Approach 272; Top-down Approach 282
Estimating Metric 183–4, 271–2; Factors 272; Rates 279; Ratios 279; Top-down Risk Opportunity Uncertainty 183–4
Estimating Procedure 272; Critical Path Analysis 210–14; Norden-Rayleigh Curve Linear Transformation 75–7, 84–7; Queueing Theory 259–61, 243–6, 237–9
EVM Abbreviations and Terminology 270; AC (Actual Cost) 270; ACWP (Actual Cost of Work Performed) 270; AT (Actual Time) 270; BAC (Budget At Completion) 270; BCWP (Budget Cost of Work Performed) 270; BCWS (Budget Cost of Work Scheduled) 270; CPI (Cost Performance Index) 270; CV (Cost Variance) 270; EAC (Estimate At Completion) 270; ES (Earned Schedule) 270; ETC (Estimate To Completion) 270; EV (Earned Value) 270; PV (Planned Value) 270; SPI (Schedule Performance Index - Cost Impact) 271; SPI(t) (Schedule Performance Index - Time Impact) 271; SV (Schedule Variance - Cost Impact) 271; SV(t) (Schedule Variance Time Impact) 271
Excel function see Microsoft Excel functions
Excess Kurtosis 115–16, 167–9, 272; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Expected Value Technique see Factored Value Technique
Expert Judgement 177; Delphi Technique 177
Exponential Smoothing 272
Extrapolation 272
Factored Value Technique (applied to Risk Opportunity Uncertainty) 201–6, 272; applied to Arithmetic Mean Values 203–5; applied to Most Likely Values 201–3; applied to the Maximum Values 204–5; Low Probability Risks 204; Optimism Bias 201; Risk Validation 204–5; Unknown Unknowns 201, 204–5
Factors, Rates and Ratios 10
failure rate 257–8; ageing process 257; infant mortality 257; random events 257
Formulaic Estimating Method see Parametric Estimating Method
F-Test 272
Gamma Distribution 261
Generalised Exponential Function see Exponential Function
Generalised Extreme Studentised Deviate (GESD) 272; see also Outlier Test
Generalised Logarithmic Function see Logarithmic Function
Generalised Power Function see Power Function
Geometric Mean 273; see also Measures of Central Tendency
Good Practice Spreadsheet Modelling (GPSM) 9, 273
Grubbs’ Test 273; see also Outlier Test
Harmonic Mean 273; see also Measures of Central Tendency
Heteroscedasticity 273
High Probability Risks 158; Complementary Opportunity 165–6; probability of occurrence 165–6
Homoscedasticity 273
Hypothesis Testing 11; Alternative Hypothesis 265; Null Hypothesis 253–6, 277
Iglewicz and Hoaglin’s Modified Z-Score 273; see also Outlier Test
Independent Third-Party Dependencies 29
Indices 273; Composite 267; Constant Year Value 268
Inferential Statistic 273; see also Descriptive Statistic
inflation see escalation
Inherent Risk in Spreadsheets (IRiS) 9–10, 273
Interdecile Range 273; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) 273; Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) 273
Interpolation 273
Interquantile Range 273; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Interquartile Range 273; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Interquintile Range 274; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Lane hopping see Queue Discipline: queue hopping
Laspeyres Index 274
Lateral Shift Factors 189
Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) 174–5
Learning Curve 274; Breakpoint 274; Cost Drivers 274; Segmentation 274; Step-point 274; Learning Exponent 274; Learning Rate and Learning Rate Multiplier 274; see also Quantity-based Learning Curves and Time-based Learning Curves
Least Squares Regression 274
Leptokurtic or Leptokurtotic 274; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Lessons Learnt Checklist 188
Linear Correlation 268; Pearson’s Linear Correlation Coefficient 277; see also Measures of Linearity, Dependence and Correlation; see also Rank Correlation
Linear Transformation 12; see also Mathematical Transformation
Little’s Law or Little’s Lemma see Queueing Theory: Little’s Law
Logarithm 274
Low Probability Risks 157; Extreme Risks 166–9; probability of occurrence 166–9
Mann-Whitney U-Test 275
Marching Army Technique 189, 215, 275
Mathematical Transformation 275; see also Logarithm
Maximum 275
MDAL (Master Data and Assumptions List) see ADORE
Mean Absolute Deviation see Average Absolute Deviation (AAD)
Measures of Central Tendency 10, 275
Measures of Dispersion and Shape 10–11, 275
Measures of Linearity, Dependence and Correlation 11
Median 115–16, 275; see also Measures of Central Tendency
Median Absolute Deviation (MAD) 275; see also Measures of Central Tendency
Memoryless Probability Distribution 228, 275; Exponential Distribution 229; Geometric Distribution 229
Mesokurtic or Mesokurtotic 275; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Method see Estimating Method
Microsoft Excel Functions: BETA.DIST 61, 71; BETA.INV 240; CHISQ.DIST.RT 254; CHISQ.INV.RT 254; CHISQ.TEST 252, 256; COUNT 76; COUNTIF 86, 102; EXP 76; EXPON.DIST 257; FIND 211; GAMMA.INV 238, 239, 245, 261; IF 211, 213; IFERROR 211, 245; INTERCEPT 76, 86; LARGE 245; LEN 210; LN 82, 86; MAX 261; OFFSET 76, 77, 87; POISSON. DIST 250, 253; RAND 238, 239, 245, 261; RANDBETWEEN 102; SLOPE 76, 86; SQRT 19, 21, 52; SUMPRODUCT 101, 211, 250; SUMSQ 77; WEIBULL.DIST 17–18, 24, 52, 257
Microsoft Excel Solver 75–81, 84–90
Minimum 275
Mode 17–18, 21, 21–5, 115–16, 276; see also Measures of Central Tendency
Model Validation and Verification see individual terms: Validation and Verification
Monotonic Function 276
Monte Carlo Simulation 95–182, 276; choice of Input Distribution 116–28; common pitfalls 101–3; history 95–6; holistic model 151–8; independent events 127–31; Input variable uncertainty 97–101; multiple iterations 101–2; Normal Distribution 103–12; optimism bias 178–81; Output Uncertainty Range 112–16; relevance 96, 101; Risk Management 149–51; risk mitigation 158–62; Risk Opportunity Uncertainty (ROU) evaluation 147–77; semi-independent events 132–5; substitute Input Distributions 118–28; TRACEability 177–81; see also Monte Carlo Simulation Correlation
Monte Carlo Simulation Correlation: 128–47; chain-linked correlation 135–40; hub-linked correlation 140–3; isometric correlation 143; negative correlation 146–7; semi-independent events 132–5
Most Likely Value 97
Moving Average 276; see also Arithmetic Mean
Moving Geometric Mean 276; see also Geometric Mean
Moving Harmonic Mean 276; see also Harmonic Mean
Moving Maximum 276; see also Maximum
Moving Measures 187
Moving Median 276; see also Median
Moving Minimum 276; see also Minimum
Moving Standard Deviation 276; see also Standard Deviation
Multi-Variant Learning 276
Net Present Value (NPV) 277; see also Discounted Cash Flow
Network diagram 208–9; Activity on Arrow 209; Activity on Node 209
Nominal Year Value see Current Year Value
Norden-Rayleigh Curve 15–94, 277; Budget reduction 30; Camelling effect 30–1, 43–7, 59, 61; complexity 31–4; Estimate To Completion 63–92; Guess and Iterate 64–5; history 15; impact of changes in resource recruitment 30–4; increasing scope of work 30–1; least squares error 68–71; limitations 26–30; Marching Army Technique 39–43; Microsoft Excel Solver 39–41; Modal re-positioning 47–9; phased development 30–1; Pro Rata Product Rule 35–6; properties 15–30; Rayleigh Distribution 21–5; Resource profile 56–7; Schedule slippage 35–6, 36–49; Slowing-down Time 37–6; Square Rule 31–4, 35
Norden-Rayleigh Curve Alternatives: Beta Distribution alternative 49–57; PERT-Beta Distribution 55–6; Triangular Distribution 57–9; Weibull Distribution 73–4, 81–90
Norden-Rayleigh Curve Linear Transformation 73–7, 84–7; non-linear Regression 81–2; procedure 75–7, 84–7
Normality Test 274; Jarque-Bera Test 274
Null Hypothesis see Hypothesis Testing
Open Interval 277; see also Closed Interval
Opportunity 147–9, 277; see also Risk and Uncertainty
opportunity realisation see opportunity promotion
Optimism Bias 277
Outlier 277
Outlier Tests 11
Outturn Year Value see Then Year Value
Paasche Index 277
Parametric Estimating Method 277
Partial Correlation 129, 132–5, 219–20
Payback Period 277; see also Discounted Cash Flow
Pearson’s Linear Correlation Coefficient 277
pedagogical features 2–8; Caveat Augur 6; Excel functions and facilities 6–7; Formulaphiles 4–5; Formula-phobes 5–6; references 7; Worked Examples 6
Peirce’s Criterion 277; see also Outlier Test
Percentile Growth Charts 104–12; heights of children 104–12
Percentiles 277; see also Deciles, Quantiles, Quartiles and Quintiles; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
PERT-Beta Distribution 55–7, 61–3, 171–2; Cost and Schedule Analysis 55–6; Guess and Iterate 66–8; least squares error 71–3; Microsoft Excel Solver 55, 57; Resource profile 56–7
Pessimistic Schedule 189 see Schedule Risk Analysis
Phased Development 29
Planned Value (PV) see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Platykurtic or Platykurtotic 278; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Power Function 259, 278; see also Logarithm
Precision 278; see also Accuracy and 3-Point Estimate
Primary Data 278; see also Data Type
Primary Drivers 278; see also Secondary Drivers
Probability Density Function (PDF) 113–15, 278
Probability Distribution 11, 268; Continuous 268; Discrete 270
Probability Mass Function (PMF) 278
Probability of Occurrence 148, 151–4, 278; see also Risk and Opportunity; 5-Ms 173; Arithmetic Mean 172–3; Estimate Maturity Assessment (EMA) 196–7; Ethereal Approach 170–1; Most Likely Value 172–3; modelling an uncertain Probability of Occurrence 171–4
probable outcomes 96
Properties of Straight Lines 11
Quadratic Mean or Root Mean Square 278; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Qualitative Techniques 10
Quantiles 278; see also Deciles, Percentiles, Quartiles and Quintiles; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Quantity-based Learning Curve 12, 271, 278; Equivalent Unit Learning 12, 271; Learning Curve Cost Driver Segmentation 12; Multi-Variant Learning 12; Unlearning and Re-learning 12
Quartiles 278; see also Median; see also Deciles, Percentiles, Quantiles and Quintiles; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Queue Discipline 226–7; queue hopping 226–7
queue drop-outs see Service Discipline
Queueing Systems: A/S/c 226–7; A/S/c/K/N/D 226–7;Lifed items 227; notation 226–7; see also Queueing Theory
Queueing Theory 222–63; capacity 223; change in arrival rate trend 259–62; Exponential Distribution 229, 248–9; Exponential Function 229; Gamma Distribution 238–9, 245; Geometric Distribution 229; history 222–63; Inter-arrival time 231, 247–9; Little’s Law 232–3, 238–9, 242–3; Memoryless Queue 227–31; multiple channel queues 242–7, 243–7; Poisson Arrivals 229–31, 245; Poisson Distribution 229–31, 248–56; Poisson Process 247–57; procedure (change in arrival rates) 259–61; procedure (multiple channel queues) 243–6; procedure (single channel queue) 237–9; Queue Types 224–7; random arrivals 223; Service discipline 224–6; single channel queue 231–42, 236–42; Traffic Intensity 233–4; Utilisation Factor; Weibull Distribution 257–9
Quintiles 278; see also Deciles, Percentiles, Quantiles and Quartiles; see also Measures of Dispersion and Shape
Quotations see a word (or two) from the wise
random arrivals 223
random: definition 4
Range 278
Rank Correlation 278; Kendall’s Tau Rank Correlation Coefficient 274; Partial Rank Correlation 133–4
Rayleigh Distribution 18–21, 50–4; Least Squares Error 51–4; PDF and CDF 17–18; Research & Development (R&D) 15–17; Truncation 18–21, 50–4
Real Year Value 279
References 14, 93, 182, 200, 206, 221, 263
Regression Analysis 279; Multiple Linear Regression 11; Nonlinear Regression 12; Simple Linear Regression 12
Regression Confidence Interval 279
Regression Prediction Interval 279
Reliability Analysis 257
Research & Development (R&D) 26
Residual Risk Exposure 166–7, 279; see also Risk Exposure
Risk and Opportunity Ranking Factor 158–9, 279
Risk Contingency 166–7, 184; Estimate Maturity Assessment (EMA) 196–9
Risk Exposure 158–9, 166–7, 279; see also Residual Risk Exposure
risk opportunity uncertainty 162–4; difference 162–4; extreme values 170
Risk Opportunity Uncertainty (ROU) evaluation 96, 149, 151–8, 156, 183–200; Camelling Effect 152, 156; Lateral Shift Factors 188; Marching Army Technique 185–6; single integrated model 149, 151–8; Slipping and Sliding Technique 189–95; Top-down ROU 183–9, 189; use of Uplift Factors 186
Risk Opportunity Uncertainty (ROU) maturity 196–9; Estimate Maturity Assessment (EMA) 196–9
Risk Uplift Factors 279
R-Square (Regression) 279; see also Adjusted R-Square
scatter 259; Lognormal Distribution 259; Normal Distribution 259
Schedule Maturity Assessment (SMA) 280
Schedule Performance Index (SPI(t)): Time Impact see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Schedule Performance Index (SPI): Cost Impact 185; see also EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Schedule Risk Analysis (SRA) 185, 207–21, 220Schedule Variance (SV(t)): Time Impact see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Schedule Variance (SV(t)): Time Impact see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
Schedule Variance (SV): Cost Impact see EVM Abbreviations and Terminology
scope creep see Norden-Rayleigh Curve: increasing scope
Secondary Data 280; see also Data Type
Secondary Driver 280; see also Primary Driver
Series overview 1, 1–2, 1–14, 2; see also Volume Overviews
Service Discipline 227; FIFO 227; LIFO 227; SIPO 227; SIRO 227
Skewness Coefficient 280
Slipping and Sliding Technique 180, 189–95, 280; Bottom-up Approach 189–95; Lateral Shift Factors 189; Marching Army Technique 189–90; Monte Carlo Simulation 189–90; Risk Contingency 190, 195; Stretch Factor 192–5; Top-down Approach 189–90; Uplift Factors 189–90
Software Development 29; Putnam-Norden-Rayleigh Curve (PNR) 29
Solution Development 15–94; Norden-Rayleigh Curve 15–94
Spearman’s Rank Correlation Coefficient 280
Spreadsheet Validation and Verification 280; see also individual terms: Validation and Verification
Standard Deviation 280; Population 280; Sample 280
Standard Error 280
Standing Army Technique see ROU evaluation: Marching Army Technique see Marching Army Technique
Stanford-B Unit Learning Curve 280; see also Quantity-based Learning Curve
Statistics 280
Stepwise Regression 281; see also Regression Analysis
Strong Law of Large Numbers 103
substitute distributions 118–26
Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) 184
Tertiary Data 281; see also Data Type
Then Year Value 281; see also Indices
Three-Point Estimate see 3-Point Estimate
Time Series Analysis 12, 281; Additive/Subtractive; Classical Decomposition Method 267; Multiplicative
Time-Based Learning Curve 12, 281; Time-Constant Learning Curve 281; Time-Performance Learning Curve 281; see also Quantity-based Learning Curve
TRACEability 9, 68, 119, 142, 145, 186, 204, 257, 282, 316
Transformation see Mathematical Transformation
Trend Analysis 11; Moving Measures 11
Triangular Distribution 118–22, 126; Square Rule 33
Trusted Source Estimating Method 282 t-Test 282
Tukey Fences 282; see also Outlier Test
Type I Error (False Positive) 282
Type II Error (False Negative) 282
Uncertainty 97, 282; Cone of Uncertainty 267
Uplift Factors 184, 186–8, 189
Validation 282; see also Verification
Variance 282; Population 282; Sample 283
Verification 283; see also Validation
Weak Law of Large Numbers 103
Weibull Distribution 17–18, 21–5, 58–63; Bath Tub Curve 258–9; Beta Distribution 58–63; Double Log Linearisation 81–90; Exponentiated 258–9; failure rate 257–8; Reliability Analysis 257; Truncation 21–5, 58–61
Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney U-Test see Mann-Whitney U-Test a word (or two) from the wise 3, 13, 15, 26, 77, 95, 170, 179, 180, 185, 202, 207, 224
Wright’s Cumulative Average Learning Curve 283; see also Quantity-based Learning Curve
Z-Score 283
Z-Test 283