Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting

Alan R. Jones

As engineering and construction projects get bigger, more ambitious and increasingly complex, the ability of organisations to work with realistic estimates of cost, risk or schedule has become fundamental. Working with estimates requires technical and mathematical skills from the estimator but it also requires an understanding of the processes, the constraints and the context by those making investment and planning decisions. You can only forecast the future with confidence if you understand the limitations of your forecast.

The Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting introduce, explain and illustrate the variety and breadth of numerical techniques and models that are commonly used to build estimates. Alan Jones defines the formulae that underpin many of the techniques; offers justification and explanations for those whose job it is to interpret the estimates; advice on pitfalls and shortcomings; and worked examples. These are often tabular in form to allow you to reproduce the examples in Microsoft Excel. Graphical or pictorial figures are also frequently used to draw attention to particular points as the author advocates that you should always draw a picture before and after analysing data.

The five volumes in the Series provide expert applied advice for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists as well as students of cost engineering, based on the author’s thirty-something years’ experience as an estimator, project planner and controller.

Volume I Principles, Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling

Alan R. Jones

Volume II Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff

Alan R. Jones

Volume III Best Fit Lines and Curves, and Some Mathe-Magical Transformations

Alan R. Jones

Volume IV Learning, Unlearning and Re-learning Curves

Alan R. Jones

Volume V Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models

Alan R. Jones