Foreword

In your hands is the latest in a series of investing guides from Fisher Investments Press—the first ever imprint from a money manager, produced in partnership with John Wiley & Sons. But this guide is a bit different. Whereas the others have focused on analyzing standard investing sectors (Energy, Materials, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Industrials, etc.), this is the first guide on a region.

Why start with emerging markets? After all, the developed world seems risky enough without adding unique emerging market risks—political instability, poor infrastructure, corruption, and obscure regulations. Except that's not really true anymore. Once economic backwaters, emerging markets are increasingly civilized, orderly, booming nations—though individually, risks remain. Over the last 15 years, they've annualized 4.5 percent, accelerating to 5.8 percent in the last five years, while the developed world averaged just 3.0 percent. And, with that growth, their relative importance has grown, too—from 16 percent of total GDP in 1989 to 28 percent in 2009. And their stock markets have boomed—20 years ago they were just 1.4 percent of the world, 10 years ago 4.6 percent. Today, they're 12 percent and growing. You can't get good global exposure without owning some emerging markets now. Ignoring emerging markets means giving up opportunities to enhance performance and manage risk.

But don't be fooled—growth doesn't automatically mean good stock returns. Example: China's economy grew 10.1 percent in 2004 while its stocks fell 15.4 percent. So, with emerging markets booming, how can you know where to invest, and when? That's what this book shows. It teaches how to apply a top-down methodology to emerging markets that guides you in making the big decisions first. Simply: Making better big decisions—what asset class to hold, in what country or region, and in which sectors—will have bigger impact on longer term performance than individual stock picking. Though stock picking is and will always be important. This book can show you how.

For global investors, adding an emerging markets allocation is not only a logical progression but today a virtual imperative. Many emerging markets have immense natural resources and populations evolving toward middle class—vast untapped consumers as well as new human capital. And emerging market transparency continues to improve. Of course, many emerging markets still face political tumult, adding additional risk for stock picking in these nations. Some may emerge—like Israel, categorized as developed in 2009. Others, saddled by despotic governments and weak property rights, may submerge. But, as an overall category, you don't want to ignore nearly a third of the world—that's a sizable risk.

One thing this book won't give—and none of these guides provide—is hot stock tips for this year or any other. No book can give you stock tips worth following—claims otherwise are fairy tales. Instead, this book is intended to teach you a workable, repeatable framework for increasing the likelihood of finding profitable opportunities in emerging markets. This methodology should serve you not only this year or next, but the whole of your investing career, no matter what region or sector you analyze. So good luck and enjoy your tour of the emerging world.

Ken Fisher

CEO of Fisher Investments

Author of the New York Times best sellers

The Only Three Questions That Count, The Ten Roads to Riches, and How To Smell a Rat

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