Chapter 8. PUTTING IT TOGETHER

The preceding chapters provided knowledge necessary to confidently invest in emerging markets. But all that preparation means little if you don't know how to put it to use. Our last chapter focuses on practical concerns for investing in emerging markets, including the instruments available, different strategies, and the unique challenges in this corner of the investing universe. We then depart with a brief nod to the next frontier of emerging markets.

TWO INITIAL CONSIDERATIONS

Before detailing the tools, however, there are two important preliminary considerations: the type of investor you are and the strategy you intend to employ.

Institutional versus Retail

There are essentially two broad categories of investors—retail and institutional. Institutional investors are the big fish of the investment world. They wield hundreds of millions or billions of dollars and generally have a dedicated research staff and even trading desk to implement their portfolios. Their clients are huge foundations, endowments, and pension plans.

Retail investors, on the other hand, are the minnows of the investing universe. They have portfolios in the thousands of dollars up to a few million. They generally access their accounts online, place trades electronically or over the phone with a broker, and generally conduct their own research. Or they may hire a professional—usually one who specializes in working with other retail investors.

Most people are retail investors. But don't let that make you feel inferior—minnows can still swim. Twenty years ago, investing in emerging markets was a cumbersome affair. Access to local markets was difficult and only institutions with custodial and trading contacts across the globe could efficiently invest. A lack of data other than broad index information also hindered proper due diligence and reporting. Retail investors were at an even greater disadvantage. For them, hiring a professional money manager was virtually the only option for emerging markets exposure.

Many of these barriers have crumbled. Professional money managers still provide worthwhile services for those without the time or confidence to do it themselves, but a range of new instruments, like American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), offer alternatives. Today, retail investors can easily construct a wide variety of strategies on their own. The chasm between the capabilities of an institutional and retail investor has narrowed considerably.

Passive Versus Active

For either type of investor, there are two broad investment strategies— passive or active. At the broadest level, an active approach tries to outperform a benchmark by intentionally deviating from it. If you have a particularly positive outlook for a specific country or sector, for example, you may overweight it relative to the benchmark, and vice versa. Conversely, you can underweight areas you have less positive outlooks for. (Recall Chapter 6 for a refresher.)

A passive approach, on the other hand, tries to make a portfolio mirror the respective benchmark as much as possible. For instance, a passive emerging markets investor would allocate 8.4 percent to South African stocks, 5.2 percent to Mexico, and 18.2 percent to China (see Table 5.1 for these weights). He'd also invest 22.8 percent of his portfolio to Financials stocks and 7.7 percent to Industrials (see Table 5.2). A passive approach thus neutral weights all categories of stocks relative to the benchmark.

The instruments used will depend on your approach. A passive approach frequently means eschewing individual stocks for instruments with broader market exposure like mutual funds or ETFs. (An ETF is a passive investment that mimics the performance of a specific benchmark; more on this in a bit.) But this doesn't necessarily mean a passive approach requires no work—investors must carefully monitor exposure and rebalance periodically.

An active approach utilizes a broader range of instruments. Individual stocks usually play a predominate role. But investors may also use passive investments to create an active strategy. How so? Imagine an investor builds an all-ETF portfolio. Is it a passive strategy if a portfolio is made up entirely of passive investments? Not necessarily. In our example, rather than own ETFs precisely to the weight in the benchmark, such as 5.2 percent allocation to Mexico's ETF (EWW), an investor could hold more or less depending on his view of the country. If you were particularly bullish on Mexico, you could allocate 10 percent of your portfolio to EWW, a notable overweight to the benchmark. This is an active allocation (country bet) using a passive investment.

Many tools used today are common across all categories. But each case—institutional versus retail and passive versus active—calls for slightly different considerations. Next, we more closely evaluate the instruments at emerging markets investors' disposal.

INSTRUMENTS FOR INVESTING IN EMERGING MARKETS

There are essentially four major types of investments for most emerging markets investors: mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, depositary receipts, and ordinary shares. We begin with those instruments most applicable to any type of investor.

Depositary Receipts and Ordinary Shares

We discussed the basics of security selection in Chapter 7. If you've decided to dive full bore into emerging markets and pick your own stocks, there are two distinct types of shares at your disposal—ordinary shares or depositary receipts.

Ordinary Shares

Ordinary shares are exactly what they sound like—plain-vanilla, individual stocks. If you're an American, living in America, and you pick up the phone to place an order for a US stock, you're buying an ordinary share. Investors can also buy foreign ordinaries—foreign stocks traded on a country's local exchange—although matters can be complicated by other considerations, such as trading laws, regulations, and where and how you custody them.

Once an option only to institutions, foreign ordinaries are becoming increasingly available to the average investor. Most full-service brokers can access ordinary shares in foreign markets for clients. And discount brokerages have started to offer the securities. Clients of Charles Schwab & Co. can access stocks in 45 foreign countries, and E*Trade Securities now offers online trading in six foreign markets and five currencies.

The drawbacks to buying foreign ordinaries? They can be costly. There are usually several layers of fees: the commission charged by your broker, fees to convert currency, foreign broker fees, and taxes and other charges levied directly by foreign governments. These fees can be an onerous hurdle for retail and even smaller institutional investors—the cost of buying stocks in some countries can exceed 10 percent of your investment. Thus, be sure to fully evaluate transaction costs before purchasing these types of stocks.

Depositary Receipts

Depositary receipts (DRs) offer an alternative. Depository banks, such as JP Morgan, Bank of New York, and Deutsche Bank, collect ordinary shares and issue DRs into the local market. As such, they represent shares issued by a foreign company but on a local exchange. Each DR is backed by a set number of ordinary shares trading in the firm's home market, but the number of shares represented isn't necessarily one-to-one. For example, owning a single American Depositary Receipt (ADR) in the Taiwanese semiconductor company Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) is equivalent to owning five ordinary shares.

Depositary receipts come in all forms depending on the listed ex-change. For example, Global Depositary Receipts (aka GDRs) trade on exchanges in London, Luxembourg, Frankfurt, Dubai, and Singapore, among others. But the most common are ADRs—shares of foreign companies listed on a US exchange.

For most retail investors, owning ADRs can be the easiest and most cost-effective way to gain exposure to foreign stocks. ADRs are scarcely different than owning US stocks—many are registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), pay ADR holders dividends in US dollars, and follow US accounting and reporting standards. Custody issues are also fewer because shares are held at large, reputable US institutions.

ADRs aren't just for retail investors, either. If a company has both an ADR and an ordinary share, there's a good chance the ADR will be cheaper. Buying ordinary shares may be easy, but transaction costs are generally higher outside of the US. Since ADRs are listed on US exchanges, all investors can take advantage of the lower costs here.

There are four types of ADRs, each with different listing requirements:

  • Level I: The most basic ADRs. Level I ADRs aren't listed on US exchanges, but instead trade over-the-counter. As a result, most have five-letter tickers ending in "Y." Because Level I ADRs are the easiest and least costly for a company to list, they're also the most abundant. But that means investors need to pay close attention to liquidity—many aren't actively traded.

  • Level II: Companies listing Level II ADRs file a registration statement with the SEC. They must file annual reports and follow US accounting standards. Level II ADRs are also listed on exchanges, conferring greater visibility and trading volume.

  • Level III: Level III ADRs require the most work for foreign firms. Issuing Level I and II ADRs means taking shares from the local market, giving them to a depository institution, and releasing ADR shares. By contrast, Level III ADRs represent entirely new shares to be put on deposit. Therefore, they require many of the same regulatory steps as a new share offering by a US firm.

  • 144A: Available only to Qualified Institutional Buyers. This is a market for professional investors only, making reporting requirements relatively lax.

Unfortunately, not every foreign company has a depositary receipt. In fact, some of the largest companies in emerging markets (and the world) don't have them, so the only way to own these securities is through ordinary shares. JP Morgan offers a comprehensive search tool of all available DRs at www.adr.com.

Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs)

Exchange-traded funds also represent an important tool to both retail and institutional investors. ETFs share many of the same attributes as index funds—namely lower costs and efficient diversification (more on index funds in a bit). But there is one major difference. While mutual funds are priced only once a day (at the market's close), ETFs trade intraday like a stock. This subjects them to different standards. ETFs must report holdings daily, giving them greater transparency.

ETFs allow investors to make fairly precise investment decisions while reducing stock-specific risk. This can be especially useful for emerging markets. For example, Thailand accounts for 1.4 percent of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (see Table 5.1). Since it's a relatively small portion of the index, a bullish investor might only buy a stock or two to overweight the country. But that leaves the investor exposed to stock-specific risk. Instead, he could buy the iShares MSCI Thailand (THD), an ETF tracking the broad Thai market, and effectively eliminate this risk.

Table 8.1. Select ETFs with Emerging Market Exposure

Broad

Regional

Country

Source: iShares; SPDRS.com.

SPDR MSCI ACWI ex-US (CWI)

SPDR S&P Emerging Asia Pacific (GMF)

SPDR S&P China (GXC)

SPDR S&P Emerging Markets (GMM)

SPDR S&P Emerging Latin America (GML)

iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXI)

iShares MSCI ACWI (ACWI)

SPDR S&P Emerging Europe (GUR)

iShares FTSE China (HK Listed) (FCHI)

iShares MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX)

SPDR S&P BRIC 40 (BIX)

iShares MSCI Brazil (EWZ)

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM)

SPDR S&P Emerging Middle East & Africa (GAF)

iShares MSCI Chile (ECH)

 

iShares S&P Latin America 40 (ILF)

iShares MSCI Israel (EIS)

 

iShares MSCI BRIC (BKF)

iShares MSCI Malaysia (EWM)

 

iShares MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan (AAXJ)

iShares MSCI Mexico (EWW)

 

iShares S&P Asia 50 (AIA)

iShares MSCI South Africa (EZA)

  

iShares MSCI South Korea (EWY)

  

iShares MSCI Taiwan (EWT)

  

iShares MSCI Thailand (THD)

  

iShares MSCI Turkey (TUR)

There is a dizzying array of ETFs available to emerging market investors. Table 8.1 lists those from two well-known ETF providers—Barclays (iShares) and State Street Global Advisors (SPDRs). Other providers offer more, but no matter which one you choose, there are funds for all types of investors and strategies. For example, investors desiring simple, broad exposure can purchase a fund like the iShares MSCI All-Country World Index (ACWI), an index tracking performance of all developed and emerging markets. Others after more active management can utilize individual country and regional funds. For example, maybe you've done more analysis on Latin America and think you have a pretty good idea about how things work in that part of the world. But you don't know much about Eastern Europe or Asia and don't believe you have any particularly valuable insight into stocks there. You could purchase a fund for these regions (GMF and GUR) and then pick individual stocks for Latin America. Such permutations are endless.

Mutual Funds

Mutual funds are primarily a tool used by retail investors to gain access to a professional money manager. These services remain popular, and there are good reasons for this. Mutual funds are a one-stop shop—purchasing a fund gives an investor access to a team of analysts and trading and custodial contacts—taking the onus off the retail investor. They also benefit investors with smaller accounts because they offer diversification—an especially important consideration for volatile emerging markets—in one neatly packaged security.

But there are negatives. Mutual funds offer no customization. They're commingled assets, meaning investors' money is pooled together and managed as one large portfolio. Each investor gets the same stocks and allocation decisions as every other investor. This also means they are not tax efficient—investors don't get the benefit of realizing losses to offset gains at tax time. Mutual funds are also not particularly transparent. They are only required to report holdings once a quarter and often only divulge a detail or two about the manager.

Any big mutual fund company (e.g., Fidelity, Vanguard, Legg Mason) likely offers an emerging market fund. But before committing to one, investors should studiously evaluate candidates on several key points.

Fees

Mutual funds can be costly. And emerging market funds especially so. Expect to pay an expense ratio north of 1 to 1.25 percent a year or more for an actively managed emerging market fund—slightly more expensive than a developed market fund. Higher fees relative to other asset classes should be expected—it's more costly to gather emerging market data and transaction costs can be higher.

Not only can fees be higher, but they vary widely, too. For example, the US Global Investors Emerging Markets Fund (GEMFX) charges an expense ratio of 2.5 percent. By contrast, the T. Rowe Price Emerging Market Fund (PRMSX) charges nearly half that—1.27 percent.[189] Is the former twice the manager as the latter? Maybe, maybe not. The point is there can be wide variance, and you should evaluate the entire picture—an extra 1 percent a year is a lot of money. You want to be sure that's justified.

There's more. Many mutual funds may also have a load—a sales charge that's either tacked onto the initial purchase price ("front end"), deferred to when an investor sells the fund later on ("back end"), or charged annually ("level load"). The fund's share class determines the fee charged (e.g., A shares, B shares), and they vary depending on the provider. Some can be quite high, so evaluate each carefully. Other funds are "no load"—meaning they don't charge a sales commission. But that doesn't necessarily mean there are no expenses. No-load funds still have an expense ratio to cover operating costs. All of these fees, charges, commissions, and expenses are fully disclosed in each fund's prospectus, so be sure to review it and understand what you are paying and why—and whether you think it's worth it.

Allocation Decisions

Allocation decisions across mutual funds vary considerably. Actively managed mutual fund managers consciously deviate from their benchmarks. As an example, Tables 8.2 and 8.3 show country and sector weights of the T. Rowe Price fund (mentioned earlier) relative to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, the fund's benchmark.

The differences in some areas can be vast. At the end of 2008, the manager appeared to be bullish on Latin America, with big overweights to Mexico and Brazil relative to the benchmark. He also appeared relatively negative on Asia, with underweights to Malaysia, South Korea, and Taiwan. And he took a significant benchmark deviation to South Africa—owning only one company at 0.5 percent for nearly an 8 percent underweight.

Table 8.2. T. Rowe Price Emerging Market Fund Country Weights

Country

PRMSX Weight

MSCI EM Weight

Over/Underweight

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Thomson Datastream, MSCI, Inc.[190] as of 12/31/2008.

Mexico

9.5%

5.2%

4.3%

Brazil

16.8%

12.9%

3.9%

Qatar

3.5%

0.0%

3.5%

Hong Kong

3.2%

0.0%

3.2%

Oman

2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

India

8.4%

6.5%

1.9%

Russia

7.0%

5.7%

1.3%

Egypt

1.6%

0.7%

0.9%

UK

0.9%

0.0%

0.9%

China

19.1%

18.2%

0.9%

Argentina

1.0%

0.1%

0.9%

Ukraine

0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

Bahrain

0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

Cyprus

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Peru

0.7%

0.7%

0.0%

Pakistan

0.0%

0.1%

−0.1%

Colombia

0.5%

0.6%

−0.1%

Philippines

0.0%

0.5%

−0.5%

Morocco

0.0%

0.5%

−0.5%

Hungary

0.0%

0.6%

−0.6%

Chile

0.6%

1.4%

−0.8%

Indonesia

0.7%

1.5%

−0.8%

Turkey

0.6%

1.5%

−0.9%

Czech Republic

0.0%

0.9%

−0.9%

Thailand

0.0%

1.4%

−1.4%

Israel

1.9%

3.4%

−1.5%

Poland

0.0%

1.6%

−1.6%

Malaysia

0.8%

3.0%

−2.3%

South Korea

10.6%

13.6%

−3.1%

Taiwan

7.3%

10.9%

−3.5%

South Africa

0.5%

8.4%

−7.9%

Table 8.3. T. Rowe Price Emerging Market Fund Sector Weights

Sector

PRMSX Weight

MSCI EM Weight

Over/Underweight

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Thomson Datastream, MSCI, Inc.[191], as of 12/31/2008.

Consumer Staples

11.4%

5.8%

5.6%

Financials

28.2%

22.8%

5.4%

Consumer Disc.

8.2%

4.8%

3.5%

Industrials

10.8%

7.7%

3.1%

Health Care

0.9%

2.9%

−1.9%

Materials

10.3%

12.8%

−2.5%

Tech

8.1%

10.8%

−2.7%

Energy

11.3%

14.9%

−3.5%

Utilities

0.2%

4.0%

−3.8%

Telecom.

8.3%

13.6%

−5.3%

Note too there quite a few holdings from countries outside the benchmark. For example, 3.5 percent of the fund is invested in Qatar, which is not considered an emerging market by MSCI (it's a frontier market—more on this later). The fund even has developed market stocks, with 3.2 percent allocated to Hong Kong and 0.9 percent to the UK. While these allocations may be small, deviating from the benchmark can subject investors to a different set of risks and drivers.

From a sector standpoint, the manager appeared to have several areas of high conviction. He took more than a 5 percent overweight to Consumer Staples and Financials—likely because he expects these areas to outperform. By contrast, he appears relatively down on Utilities and Telecom stocks, with underweights there.

Most active mutual fund managers will make similar decisions—deviating from their benchmark with over- and underweights to particular regions, countries, sectors, even sizes and styles. Just remember hiring a manager means ceding allocation decisions to someone else, which can lead to wide divergence from your benchmark you won't necessarily be able to control.

This concept becomes especially important if investors purchase more than one mutual fund in the same category. While it's likely one fund will look different from another, it's also possible it holds many of the same allocations. Unwittingly, an investor could double up on a particular country, sector, or stock, decreasing diversification advantages. Since allocations change over time with active management, it's important for investors to monitor these types of exposure.

Index Funds

Not all mutual funds are active. John Bogle, founder of the Vanguard Group, created the first passive mutual fund in 1975, called an index fund.[192] Index funds have exploded in popularity over the years, and for good reason—they represent an easy vehicle to get market exposure to a specific category of stocks. The average retail investor probably won't have the time, tools, or capital to purchase every single security in a benchmark and then constantly monitor and rebalance. And since index funds are passive, expense ratios can be substantially lower than active funds. For example, Vanguard's Emerging Market Stock Index Fund (VEIEX) charges investors 0.32 percent. If the passive approach is your thing, index funds can be an appropriate tool.

Leveraged Funds

Leveraged mutual funds use derivatives to achieve some multiple of performance of the underlying index. For example, the ProFunds Ultra Emerging Markets Fund (UUPIX) attempts to achieve 200 percent of the daily performance of the Bank of New York Emerging Markets 50 ADR Index.[193] Though leveraged vehicles can amplify gains, losses are also potentially greater.

In addition, the time it takes to recoup losses with leveraged vehicles is longer than non-leveraged investments. Why? Returns are asymmetrical—a 25 percent rise does not erase a 25 percent decline. Imagine you own $1,000 in both an emerging market index fund and a leveraged emerging markets fund. The index falls 25 percent this year. The index fund thus falls 25 percent to $750, while the leveraged fund drops 50 percent to $500. Now imagine that markets rally 33 percent the following year. The index fund has recouped its losses and is now worth $1,000 again. What about the leveraged fund? Despite posting an eye-catching 66 percent return, it remains below the original value, at $833. In other words, because you lose more during the down periods, it takes longer to make it back. This makes leveraged funds especially risky during volatile periods.

COMMON CHALLENGES AND RISKS

Investing in emerging markets may be easier than ever, but challenges remain. A host of issues can make investing more expensive, risky, or just downright frustrating. Remaining cognizant of these matters will lead to fewer headaches later.

Liquidity

Liquidity refers generally to both the cost and ease of transacting in a particular security. A liquid market implies ready and willing buyers and sellers at all times and a high probability that the next executed trade is at a price equal or close to the last one. Such factors vary tremendously across stocks—some exchange hands many millions times each day, while others only trade a few times over the course of several weeks.

In general, emerging market stocks tend to trade less, making liquidity considerations particularly important. Table 8.4 shows the average daily trading volume across several developed and emerging markets. Most emerging market countries trade substantially less than their developed market peers. China, the most actively traded emerging market, still only has a third of the volume traded in the US. At the other end of the spectrum, Peru only trades $29 million a day.

Why does liquidity matter? Imagine you're the manager of a $1 billion portfolio with 100 stocks. To simplify, let's say each position is the same weight—1 percent of the portfolio, or $10 million. That may seem like quite a bit of money in one stock, but for big, developed market stocks, it's often a drop in the bucket. For example, as of this writing, shares of General Electric (GE), the US industrial giant, traded on average 116 million shares a day at roughly $21 a share.[194] That means well over $2 billion in GE shares exchanged hands each day. A $10 million trade would hardly make a dent in the stock's daily volume.

Table 8.4. Representative Dollar Trading Volume by Country

Country

Dollar Volume Trade (US$ Millions)

Figures are the average daily trading volume in US dollars of representative stock market exchanges for the 12 months ending April 22, 2009.

Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

US

33,416

Japan

23,431

UK

13,176

China

11,310

Canada

6,088

Korea

3,282

Taiwan

2,845

Brazil

2,611

India

2,509

Mexico

417

Thailand

386

Indonesia

258

Malaysia

255

Argentina

140

Chile

125

Philippines

58

Peru

29

Now imagine you're trying to purchase $10 million in Bank Pekao, a sizeable Polish bank ($11 billion market capitalization). The stock traded 571,000 shares a day at an average of $56 per share, equating to a little over $30 million in dollar volume.[195] Here, a $10 million trade would account for a substantial amount of one day's total volume. Since purchasing one-third of a stocks' daily volume at once would likely move the market price (sellers would match the sudden increase in demand with an increase in price), investors could spread the purchase out over the course of several days. But that also means it would take several days to sell out of the security later—the lack of liquidity compromises flexibility and quick action.

Liquidity also matters because it affects transaction costs. With financial instruments (stocks, ETFs, currencies, etc.), the price one investor pays is usually more than another investor collects. The different prices are known as the bid and the ask, and the bid-ask spread varies depending on the supply and demand of the security. If a stock has relatively few shares trading (i.e., it's less liquid) the buyer will command a premium as compensation, resulting in a higher bid-ask spread. In our example, this cost is likely negligible for GE but might cause an investor to think twice about Bank Pekao.

Liquidity concerns aren't just a concern for institutional investors wielding large sums of money. Smaller retail investors will also face difficulties buying ordinary shares in smaller markets. Trading volumes for ADRs can be problematic as well—many Level I ADRs barely trade at all. In either case, a liquidity analysis should be conducted by all investors prior to trading any security.

Market Accessibility

If you're an institutional investor, it's relatively straightforward to gain access to most developed market stock exchanges. Fill out a few forms, pay a nominal fee, establish custodial accounts, and you're up and trading—for the most part. Local trading access is usually prohibitively expensive for individual retail investors, but they can easily leverage their broker's institutional contacts.

Similar access to emerging market exchanges, however, can be particularly onerous. Hefty fees, long waiting periods, strange and inconvenient requirements, shallow depositary markets, and many other impediments can make even the sanest investor question whether it's worth it.

Take investing in India. There are essentially two ways to invest in Indian shares: Register as a Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) to trade on India's domestic stock exchanges or buy depositary receipts. There are notable difficulties and expenses associated with both options.

To register as an FII, investors must submit an application with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The investor must pay a $10,000 registration fee every three years, and any sub-accounts managed by the investor—a common structure for institutional investors—must also register with the SEBI and pay a $2,000 registration fee.[196]

On top of the steep fees, the government limits the amount of shares FIIs can purchase. Individually, no one FII can own more than 10 percent of a company's outstanding shares. Sub-accounts can hold no more than 5 percent. And as a group, FII investment is capped at 24 percent.[197] All these restrictions mean the Indian ordinary market is relatively shallow. Less than 100 Indian stocks, out of more than 3,000 listed, make up roughly 75 percent of shares traded.[198]

With such a cumbersome and challenging road to investing in Indian ordinary shares, one might think the ADR universe would provide a suitable alternative. Not quite. Only 25 companies list ADRs and only 14 of those, listed in Table 8.5, trade with any volume on a US exchange. There simply aren't many options available to US investors—market accessibility is low.

Other markets pose different challenges. To trade Argentine ordinary shares, an account must be open with the central bank for a full year beforehand. Opening a custody account in Turkey costs several thousand dollars. Many similar hurdles exist in other nations. Fortunately, the trend is toward greater market accessibility as governments increasingly recognize the benefits of open capital markets. But investors must evaluate these types of costs in each market before determining if an investment in individual stocks is appropriate.

Table 8.5. Indian ADRs Traded on US Exchanges

ADR Ticker

Company Name

Avg 30-Day Volume (Shares)

Source: Bloomberg Financial, L.P. as of 4/22/09.

IBN

ICICI Bank

3,809,916

INFY

Infosys Technologies

3,023,756

SAY

Satyam Computer

2,915,845

TTM

Tata Motors

1,485,599

SLT

Sterlite Industries

1,267,412

WIT

Wipro Ltd

654,662

HDB

HDFC Bank

578,286

RDY

Dr. Reddy's

216,754

TCL

Tata Communications

148,202

SIFY

Sify Technologies

115,444

MTE

Mahanagar Telephone

65,358

PTI

Patni Computer

47,489

WNS

WNS Holdings

41,483

REDF

Rediff.com India

36,606

Unexpected Market Closure

Developed market stock exchanges are reliably open for business—rarely do they close without warning. The same is not always true for emerging markets, where greater degrees of political, social, and economic volatility means markets often shutter unexpectedly, sometimes for extended periods. In late 2008, for example, Russian officials closed the local exchange on four separate occasions due to worries that intense selling pressure on the ruble and stock market threatened stability.[199] Clearly, such unpredictable action increases the risks associated with investing in ordinary shares—another reason owning depositary receipts may be preferable since they're not traded on local exchanges.

Repatriation Difficulties

Repatriating investments in emerging markets can also be potentially problematic. Most investors don't think twice about buying stocks in Canada or France—strong property rights in developed markets reassure investors will be able to send home the proceeds from their assets when the time comes to sell. The same cannot be said for some emerging markets, where property rights are notably weaker. While not common, there have been several historical instances where countries restricted the free flow of foreign investor capital.

For example, in the wake of the Asian Financial Crisis, trading in Malaysian ringgit instruments was banned as the government tried to stabilize markets. Officials then instituted a 12-month holding period on the repatriation of securities by foreign investors. That is, investors were unable to retrieve their money out of the country for a full year.[200] The government loosened restrictions several months later, but investors were still subject to hefty levies, up to 30 percent, if they withdrew money earlier than the 12-month period.[201] Thailand's government instituted similar capital controls following its 2006 coup d'état.

THE FUTURE—FRONTIER MARKETS

To some, emerging markets aren't quite emerging enough. As the asset class becomes more broadly accepted, investors are already scouring the globe for new opportunities. Recently, a new corner of the world—frontier markets—has gained in prominence. Frontier markets are generally less sophisticated than emerging markets across the characteristics detailed in Chapter 1. MSCI launched its Frontier Markets Index in 2007, consisting of 22 countries, from Kuwait to Bulgaria.

Tables 8.6 and 8.7 illustrate the country and sector weights of the index. These markets are even more concentrated than emerging markets. The four largest countries and one sector—Financials—account for roughly two-thirds of the index. Frontier markets are also only a tiny fraction of the global investment universe. Some perspective: The combined market cap of the MSCI Frontier Market Index represents 8.1 percent of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and a miniscule 1.5 percent of the MSCI World Index. The largest company, Industries Qatar, would rank as the 305th largest in the MSCI World Index and the 37th largest in the MSCI Emerging Markets. And Exxon Mobil's market capitalization is nearly one and a half times as large as the entire MSCI Frontier Market Index.[204]

Table 8.6. MSCI Frontier Markets Index Country Weights

Country

Weight

Country

Weight

Source: Thomson Datastream, MSCI Inc.[202] as of 12/31/2008.

Kuwait

35.6%

Bahrain

2.4%

Nigeria

11.7%

Vietnam

1.7%

United Arab Emirates (UAE)

11.6%

Romania

1.3%

Qatar

9.5%

Tunisia

0.9%

Kazakhstan

4.0%

Mauritius

0.9%

Jordan

3.8%

Estonia

0.4%

Oman

3.7%

Sri Lanka

0.3%

Slovenia

3.2%

Ukraine

0.2%

Kenya

2.9%

Serbia

0.2%

Croatia

2.7%

Lithuania

0.2%

Lebanon

2.7%

Bulgaria

0.1%

Table 8.7. MSCI Frontier Markets Index Sector Weights

Sector

Weight

Source: Thomson Datastream, MSCI Inc.[203] as of 12/31/2008.

Financials

61.7%

Telecommunication Services

12.8%

Industrials

7.0%

Energy

5.4%

Consumer Staples

4.4%

Materials

4.2%

Health Care

1.7%

Consumer Discretionary

1.2%

Utilities

1.1%

Information Technology

0.4%

In many ways, frontier markets are what emerging markets were like 20 years ago: data are limited, liquidity problematic, and overall support for foreign ownership and involvement in local stock exchanges low. In addition, capital flows are largely restricted and property rights tenuous at best. Much structural reform is needed for these countries to follow a similar path of development as emerging markets. Given weak political and regulatory institutions, such change is far from certain. Emerging markets will continue to develop, and some may move up to developed market status in the future. Just the same, some frontier markets may climb the ladder to emerging status. But for now, they represent some of the riskiest equity investments available—so consider whether it's appropriate for you when making portfolio decisions.

Wherever the investment future takes you, this book can serve as your guide. Learning to think about markets with the framework provided—from emerging markets to the next frontier—should increase your chances of success. Happy investing.

..................Content has been hidden....................

You can't read the all page of ebook, please click here login for view all page.
Reset
18.116.21.229