Introduction

The risk analysis used in IPM makes it possible for a project manager to expect to consistently finish a project to specifications, and be on time and within budget. This chapter focuses on the risk that some tasks on the Gantt chart will take longer and need more resources than were anticipated and how to extend the project completion date to account for this adjustment.

The development of a reliable project time buffer is one of the biggest problems that project managers face. It is discussed at most meetings of the local chapters of the Project Management Institute. Papers are presented at every national and international meeting. A basic question managers and customers ask is, “When will the work be completed?” It is worth some sophisticated effort to get the completion date right.

The IPM method of risk analysis grew out of struggles with probability theory and years of experimentation. Eventually, we developed a method that works. It involves project team members performing some data gathering and decision making that is unfamiliar to them. This means that a project manager has a good deal of explaining to do at the first risk analysis meeting.