What Are the Net, Net Consequences?
23
to rebuild his operations? The thinkers who focused on con-
sequences lived in simpler eras. Perhaps Mozi would have
been less confident about foreseeing beneficial consequences
if he could have stepped into a time machine and glimpsed
the complex, fluid, confusing, and incomprehensively inter-
dependent world we live in today.
The second serious practical challenge is in our heads. We
just aren’t very good at thinking rationally and objectively—
not just about the unknowable future, but about the past
and even the present. Gray areas sometimes bring out strong
emotions and make it hard to think soundly, but that is just
the tip of the iceberg. The challenge runs much deeper.
11
The problem is that our minds can be viewed as having
two basic systems for making decisions. One is a recent evolu-
tionary development. It is conscious, analytical, and rational.
It looks objectively at facts and ways of framing or analyzing
those facts. The other system has been part of human nature
for much longer. It is unconscious and instinctive. It was prob-
ably crucial to the survival of our distant ancestors. When we
make decisions, which system do we use? Countless careful
studies indicate that our subterranean, instinctive decision
system dominates the rational parts of our minds.
A truly remarkable example is a recent study involving
Israeli parole judges. Researchers found that the first pris-
oner they reviewed in the morning had a 65 percent chance
of parole. This was also true for the first prisoner reviewed
after lunch. In contrast, the prisoners considered just before
lunch and at the end of the day had little chance of parole.
These judges were experts, they were trained in the law, they
were men and women of integrity, they were following clear
Chapter_02.indd 23 10/06/16 11:01 PM
Managing in the Gray
24
standards, and they knew their decisions were important.
Nevertheless, some powerful, unconscious forces profoundly
shaped their deliberations.
12
What are these unconscious forces? Researchers in a wide
range of fields—including cognitive neuroscience, psychol-
ogy, and linguistics—are just beginning to sort them out.
And the answer may be that there is no simple answer. Our
minds, it now seems, consist of myriad, semi-independent
modules, each of which evolved to handle a different task.
Some help us walk upright; others sense danger; others
remember, plan, and love. These modules seem to oper-
ate simultaneously and often clash with each other. As a
result, our minds resemble “a noisy parliament of compet-
ing factions.”
13
The great thinkers who advocated some version of the
first question seem to have assumed a stable, predictable
world and stable, rational minds. Perhaps they would have
rethought their ideas, or even abandoned them, if they
lived today and saw the complexity and turbulence around
us and inside us. These challenges to the first question are
clearly serious. So can we really use it as a practical tool for
judgment?
Practical Guidance: Get the Process Right
The answer to this question is yes, and the rest of this chap-
ter presents five steps you can take to deal with the practical
challenges and use the question to improve your judgment on
gray area problems.
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What Are the Net, Net Consequences?
25
Stop the Train
This first guideline for understanding the net, net conse-
quences in a particular situation says simply: When you have
to make a gray area decision, avoid drawing conclusions and
try to keep others from doing the same thing. Don’t assume
you or anyone else can quickly see where the pinball will end
up and what the full consequences of a complex, uncertain
decision will be. Try instead to put aside your initial intu-
itions about what the right answer is.
The Malden Mills story shows why this guidance is so import-
ant—because Aaron Feuerstein didn’t follow it. After the terri-
ble fire, he felt a heavy burden of responsibility. Thirty-three of
his workers had been injured, twelve critically, and hundreds of
people were about to lose incomes they really needed. Feuerstein
wanted to do all he could to help his employees. He felt a deep
and urgent sense of obligation to them. That is why he made the
quick commitment to rebuild everything. Feuerstein’s instinct
was exemplary, but it was also a runaway train.
The world is, of course, a much better place when men
and women with talent, power, and wealth feel a strong
sense of responsibility for the livelihoods and lives of other
people—and this is the core concern of the first humanist
question—but these admirable personal commitments can
also lead them, and us, in the wrong direction. We want
to deal with a problem head-on, but we overestimate our
knowledge and our judgment. When Feuerstein did this, he
exposed himself, his company, and its employees to the vaga-
ries of a perilous, uncertain future and the all-too-human
frailties of his own thinking and instincts.
Chapter_02.indd 25 10/06/16 11:01 PM
Managing in the Gray
26
Several years ago, researchers asked a large sample of
Americans whether several prominent individuals were
likely to go to heaven. Mother Teresa was near the top of the
list, with 72 percent expecting her to achieve eternal bliss.
But the highest probability of going to heaven was the choice
“Yourself,” with 89 percent.
14
A recent study of prison inmates
found that they rated themselves higher than non-prisoners
on kindness, generosity, self-control, and morality.
15
Studies
like these are part of the mountain of evidence for our deep
instinct to overrate, sometimes wildly, our personal capabili-
ties, judgment, and moral integrity.
In other words, we humans have a strong self-enhancement
bias.
16
It may have contributed to our survival as a species, by
encouraging our forebears to take on hard challenges, but its
risks rise steeply as problems and the consequences of options
for dealing with them grow more complex and uncertain.
Hence, the first step toward grasping the net, net conse-
quences is to forget about cracking the case or displaying your
intellectual acuity. Try instead to see yourself modestly and
realistically, as one of the fallible human creatures depicted
throughout serious history and literature, as well as in con-
temporary social science. This will help you avoid mistakes
and clear the way for the second step.
Focus on Process
When you face a gray area problem, your basic task is getting
the process right. Gray area problems are rarely resolved in a
flash of intuitive brilliance from a single individual. As one
very successful and widely respected CEO put it, “The lonely
leader on Olympus is really a bad model.” Process is critical
Chapter_02.indd 26 10/06/16 11:01 PM
What Are the Net, Net Consequences?
27
for gray area problems because you may never know whether
you actually made the right decision. All you can know is
that you worked on the problem in the right way.
What is process? It is basically what good managers spend
their time doing. Management is simply working with and
through other people to accomplish goals. To resolve a gray
area issue, you have to carefully manage how you and others
tackle the problem. This is a theme you will hear, again and
again, as we look at ways to use the five questions as tools for
judgment.
This approach can seem odd or dismaying. After all, orga-
nizational processes have dismal associations: process con-
jures up complex diagrams with arrows and feedback loops
and interminable, soul-destroying meetings. But consider a
striking statement made by Alexander Bickel, one of the fore-
most modern scholars of the US Constitution. Bickel wrote,
“The highest morality is almost always the morality of pro-
cess.”
17
This could sound like the motto of a career bureau-
crat, but it is actually a profound insight because, when you
face a gray area problem, how you work on the problem can
be as important as what you ultimately decide to do.
Why is this the case? The reason is all around us. We live
in a world of marvelous social inventions called organiza-
tions. They are big and small, public and private, formal and
informal. Organizations are our ambient life-support system.
Without them, our homes would have mud floors, our work
would be long and harsh, and our lives painful and short. It
is managers who make organizations work, and they do this
by getting the process right. Managers and process make our
world go round.
Chapter_02.indd 27 10/06/16 11:01 PM
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